Review Round 3, 2025 - Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong

[OldLion]

I wonder when Geelong will think about giving Cameron a week off when the Cats play us. Lester ALWAYS takes him to the cleaners. I cannot recall such a good player as Cameron being another players bunny so often.

Was pleased that Oscar pulled out as he would have got injured again!!!!

Defence was magnificent and how Kiddy fits back in?

Kiddy and Starc ..

 

[martinson]

You know I always wonder if these ******s ever watch their videos and think how stupid they look, doesn't seem to stop them from coming up with this s**t.

Llordo said we couldn't win with Hipwood and Daniher as our key forwards.

Wonder what he makes of Hipwood and Day ?

 

[TheZork]

Had a little chat to Kiddy at the West Coast game and I asked how his knee was going and after being very hesitant he says, its going good.
I knew straight away that it wasn’t going quite so good.

Its highly concerning, complications during recovery substantially increase the chance of re-doing the acl compared to if the recovery was smooth.

 

[Dalions]

Its highly concerning, complications during recovery substantially increase the chance of re-doing the acl compared to if the recovery was smooth.

Not sure I completely agree, everyone’s recovery is different.
Linc had a very smooth recovery and had a re-rupture on the eve of return.
Will Ashcroft had a couple of little setbacks backs and so farlooks good.
Maybe Kiddy had a few other issues going on like Meniscus or other fragments which can hamper recovery?
Kiddy’s was also an impact injury rather than the knee just giving away which may have resulted in further injury needing repair which we will probably never know about.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Someone was arguing with me it didn't rain on Saturday night.
Pretty sure I saw rain during the game.
We didn't even sit in our seats, just stood up all game at the back of the lower section , School side of the change bench.
Great viewing from there.

 

[royboys4eva]

Always good to beat Geelong. McCluggage showing Bailey Smith what a real footballer looks like. Zorko still running around like a 20 year old.

Answerth won't get the plaudits but he did a fantastic job on Stengle. Noah been so good for us since returning to the side last year.

Reville really is the super sub. Two of the best kicks you will see.

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

Plenty been said all ready, but Washcroft , he was like a bull at the ball, very tough.
Funny thing he also looked taller , maybe just looks stronger.

 

[Elixuh]

Joey has always shown Us respect and rates Fages as a top 4 coach He's the one on 360 last year that had faith in Us turning it around when we were 3 and 5 and a draw where king said we were done and didn't expect us to even make the 8

It looked like he hated that we won the PF watching the live cam reaction in the commentary box

 

[TheZork]

Not sure I completely agree, everyone’s recovery is different.
Linc had a very smooth recovery and had a re-rupture on the eve of return.
Will Ashcroft had a couple of little setbacks backs and so farlooks good.
Maybe Kiddy had a few other issues going on like Meniscus or other fragments which can hamper recovery?
Kiddy’s was also an impact injury rather than the knee just giving away which may have resulted in further injury needing repair which we will probably never know about.

Mmm I'm not saying complications equal re-injury, I'm saying complications on the balance of probability increase the chance of re-injury. Yes, McCarthy's went smoothly and he did it again, and Ashcroft had issues, but its a sample size of 2.

My guess is Kiddy's surgeries were on scar tissue build up or a improperly healed graft, I would say meniscus is unlikely the reason (if you were to go in for a second meniscus surgery it would've been much sooner than December), it'll be the cruciate ligament itself flaring up. Scar tissue/inflammation, incomplete graft healing can lead to the knee being more susceptible to future injuries is all I'm saying. The acl is also avascular so complications can really drag on.

I really hope he's fine, its just a little concerning as he's one of our best players and the future. Each report is being pushed back more and more months.

 

[martinson]

Mmm I'm not saying complications equal re-injury, I'm saying complications on the balance of probability increase the chance of re-injury. Yes, McCarthy's went smoothly and he did it again, and Ashcroft had issues, but its a sample size of 2.

My guess is Kiddy's surgeries were on scar tissue build up or a improperly healed graft, I would say meniscus is unlikely the reason (if you were to go in for a second meniscus surgery it would've been much sooner than December), it'll be the cruciate ligament itself flaring up. Scar tissue/inflammation, incomplete graft healing can lead to the knee being more susceptible to future injuries is all I'm saying. The acl is also avascular so complications can really drag on.

I really hope he's fine, its just a little concerning as he's one of our best players and the future. Each report is being pushed back more and more months.

There's obviously a significant enough issue there.

No choice but to give him all the time it needs and do whatever else needs to occur to help his recovery.

Sit and wait and wish Kiddy all the best because he's a great player and we want him back as soon as practicable.

 

[blueiris]

It looked like he hated that we won the PF watching the live cam reaction in the commentary box

I think it had more to do with Fagan proving him wrong King doesn't liked to look the fool but he's fascination with Scott is beyond stalker levels

 

[blueiris]

There's obviously a significant enough issue there.

No choice but to give him all the time it needs and do whatever else needs to occur to help his recovery.

Sit and wait and wish Kiddy all the best because he's a great player and we want him back as soon as practicable.

Coleman will probably be put on the long-term injury list to think it's been more than a year and he's still not right is a worrying sign

 

[BuntonRules]

Keep Kiddie for next year

 

[StevoJenkins]

Watched the game live, watched it again on Kayo.

I think we are being coached to be bad on purpose in the first half, then we are switching things up in the second half. Don't know if we want to do a Collywobble every week though. Can be due to the bad weather conditions, or first game blues for the Swans game.

I would be concerned if we don't bully Richmond early on - use experience and better skills to kill the game early on. Will need the bye to come quickly if there's still an issue.

Hipwood is not as bad as posters are making him out to be. I think, like the rest of the team, he's being coached to not go 100% until the second half. Watching him live, he's putting work into his opponent and taking him out of the way when needed. We just don't have a Daniher to pick up the slack on the marking front.

Hipwood is also going further up the ground. He's not a contested marking forward, which we are missing, and never has been, so we shouldn't be judging him as such.

Day is a question mark at the present. Has played 2 games in less-than-ideal conditions but will not play for us next year. He doesn't add anything in the forward line, aside from taking a defender.

Levi and Will as a combo are very good. Will need to throw the kitchen sink at them in the next few years. Will is ready to replace Neale when his time is up.

Not going to take too much else out of this game, will see who we go for the Richmond game.
Shagga should come in for Kai, Omac for Fort.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Someone was arguing with me it didn't rain on Saturday night.
Pretty sure I saw rain during the game.
We didn't even sit in our seats, just stood up all game at the back of the lower section , School side of the change bench.
Great viewing from there.

It's a good question. I think to some degree the smoke from the fireworks just never really went away until half time. I certainly found it hard to tell whether the haze around the ground was from that or whether it actually was raining ever so lightly for most of the first half.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Keep Kiddie for next year

Yep I don't think we're gonna see Kiddy play football in 2025. I've been thinking this for a while but didn't want to say it. But there, I've said it

 

[Viceregal]

I think it had more to do with Fagan proving him wrong King doesn't liked to look the fool but he's fascination with Scott is beyond stalker levels

Q. What is the difference between a secret admirer and a stalker?
A. How cute you think they are.

<checks King's picture>
<checks King's character>
<listens to King talk>

Yep definitely stalker!

 

[Sproj]

I think it had more to do with Fagan proving him wrong King doesn't liked to look the fool but he's fascination with Scott is beyond stalker levels

If King doesn't like looking like a fool, why does he continually act as one and make stupid statements?

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

One thing no one has commented on is that once again, late in the game, the cats get a charity decision costing a goal.

Remember Bailey's holding the ball and Hawkins' plunge down at the cattery.

That ten metre mark. Grrrrrr

 

[Dalions]

Yep I don't think we're gonna see Kiddy play football in 2025. I've been thinking this for a while but didn't want to say it. But there, I've said it

If others stay fit, I don’t see him playing AFL.
But in the second half of the year I can see him playing VFL.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I often forget to do this but on Saturday night I remembered to take screenshots of the stats page on the AFL app at the end of each quarter. Without spending squillions on Champion Data subscriptions it seems to be the only way to get quarter-by-quarter breakdowns. Seems worthwhile to look at this game in such a light, given the way things changed after half time. Some of this data also comes from WheeloRatings - thanks Andrew!

The key takeouts for me are:

• The sheer domination of territory we had in the 3rd quarter. 20 inside 50s to 4, including 5 marks inside 50 after taking none in the entire 1st half.
• In the 3rd quarter we were able to convert 20 of our 28 possession chains into inside 50s. This 71% is an enormous figure - most sides hover just below 50%.
• Our 56% for the whole match is also excellent and says that we were able to string long possession chains together regularly - an endorsement of the performance of our midfield and defence.
• Inside 50 efficiency was low for both teams - 36% for us and 31% for Geelong. This was probably to be expected given the conditions, but we would want to get this back up towards 50% and certainly over 40% going forward.
• Geelong were able to generate relatively easy shots at goal in the 1st quarter (3.95 expected points per shot), before we returned serve in the last quarter (3.73).
• Geelong made the most of what were not high quality scoring opportunities in the 2nd quarter, scoring at 42% above expected.
• We overused handball massively in the 2nd quarter, with our kick to handball ratio falling to just 1.32. Some teams like to go at this sort of rate, but it's very out of character for us.
• We completely reversed this in the 3rd quarter, going at 2.96 kicks for every handball which is very high even for us.
• We also took more marks in the 3rd quarter than in the entire 1st half - another clear sign we were able to get our game up and going again.
• We had more bounces. This is virtually unheard of.

Here's a bit of a numbers salad with these key points highlighted in maroon.

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		Total
	BL	GE	BL	GE	BL	GE	BL	GE	BL	GE
EFFICIENCY
Clearances	11	12	8	14	10	9	16	8	45	43
Intercepts	15	14	18	20	18	12	17	18	68	64
Total possession chains	30	28	28	36	28	24	34	29	120	117
Inside 50s	14	18	14	16	20	4	19	10	67	48
Chain conversion (possession --> inside 50)	47%	64%	50%	44%	71%	17%	56%	34%	56%	41%
Shots at goal	6	6	3	6	9	0	6	3	24	15
Inside 50 efficiency (inside 50 --> shot)	43%	33%	21%	38%	45%	0%	32%	30%	36%	31%
Expected score	17.2	23.7	8.7	17.6	28.7	0.0	22.4	7.6	79.1	50.8
Expected score per shot	2.87	3.95	2.91	2.93	3.19	N/A	3.73	2.53	3.30	3.39
Score (not including rushed behinds)	2-1 (13)	3-3 (21)	1-0 (6)	4-1 (25)	4-3 (27)	0-0 (0)	3-3 (21)	2-1 (13)	10-7 (67)	9-5 (59)
Goal kicking accuracy (Score vs Expected Score)	-24%	-11%	-31%	+42%	-6%	N/A	-6%	+71%	-15%	+16%
GAME STYLE
Kicks	54	53	45	63	74	44	59	59	232	219
Handballs	26	22	34	24	25	23	30	32	115	101
Kick-Handball Ratio	2.08	2.41	1.32	2.62	2.96	1.91	1.97	1.84	2.02	2.17
Marks	20	18	10	22	41	17	22	20	93	77
Contested marks	1	3	1	1	1	2	1	1	4	7
Marks inside 50	0	4	0	4	5	0	2	2	7	10
Tackles	17	22	19	17	10	21	23	17	69	77
Tackles inside 50	4	10	5	6	1	0	6	5	16	21
Territory control (Inside 50s + marks inside 50 + tackles inside 50)	18	32	19	26	26	4	27	17	90	79
Bounces	1	2	0	1	6	1	1	1	8	5

 

[Kernel Kurtz]

It's a good question. I think to some degree the smoke from the fireworks just never really went away until half time. I certainly found it hard to tell whether the haze around the ground was from that or whether it actually was raining ever so lightly for most of the first half.

Well when you looked up into the lights it looked like rain , but as I said we never sat out on our seats , but it definetly looked like rain earlier on.
I only had a few as well , honest.

 

[irel]

Watched the game live, watched it again on Kayo.

I think we are being coached to be bad on purpose in the first half, then we are switching things up in the second half. .

StevoJenkins Stevo I find this extraordinary statement if you believe it. A coach (any coach) of Fagan stature would do this and lose all credibility within the industry and specifically his players, and club.

Yeah I can just imagine Fagan addressing his players before each game. "Hey fellas I'm ganna coach you how to lose and then I'm ganna flick the switch and I'm ganna coach you to a win."

Naaaah.

 

[StevoJenkins]

StevoJenkins Stevo I find this extraordinary statement if you believe it. A coach (any coach) of Fagan stature would do this and lose all credibility within the industry and specifically his players, and club.

Yeah I can just imagine Fagan addressing his players before each game. "Hey fellas I'm ganna coach you how to lose and then I'm ganna flick the switch and I'm ganna coach you to a win."

Naaaah.

Probably didn't phrase it correctly, so let me have another shot:

I think that the boys are being coached to not run at 100% in the first half, saving their best for the second half. Still remaining competitive enough to not lose by 100 points, but not to go all out. Worked for the Pies a few years ago, and it seems to be something we are trying.

Although I think Matthew Lloyd is as much of a footy mind as a rock with sunglasses claiming he's weather man, I think he made a good point about the boys not running the start of games as they should.

As I said in the post you quoted, I don't think there is a whole bunch to take out of this game, but I think the Richmond game will give us a better idea for what to expect for the rest of 2025.

 

[Dalions]

I often forget to do this but on Saturday night I remembered to take screenshots of the stats page on the AFL app at the end of each quarter.

Was seriously thinking of doing this myself on Saturday night for my own benefit but then realised how hard it was to get onto the AFL website due to the shitty phone reception.