Vdubs
Hall of Famer
Agreed, but still very nervy about Saints. Back from WA is a tough ask. Waste if we lose it tonight, but that's this season in a nutshell.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?
- Thread starter The rabbi
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Right you were. I was apprehensive all week despite hoping for the kind of easy ride they gave us the first half, for a full game.
Alas, Collingwood did the business for us this week so not all is lost. We're going to need at least one special performance interstate to make a grand final this year. Unlikely but you never know.
Finishing 4th was still a level above what I thought was possible this year. 6th-8th and a 50/50 Elimination Final was more what I was thinking.
I hope we can win a final this year. Straight sets is ugly, just look at Melbourne 2022-2023. We need to be making a prelim from here and at least asking the question, even if the door gets slammed in our faces in brutal fashion.
All is not lost even if expectations have taken a hit.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Port and gws would have to lose by approx 30-40pts and we would have to win by 70-80 to get 2nd. Ie wont happen. But we should get 4th.
Didn't think we would be top 4 this year so impressive turn around by a club rebuilding.
But geez last nights wasted opportunity for top 2 stings. This would probably be the weakest top 4 side I think we have had over the last 15 years but it's a year where you can pinch a flag as there are no distinct powerhouse teams (Not with Sydney's form since July). This is an opportunity we have been begging for over all those top 2 finishes, 3 interstate teams in the top 4 where the odds are finish top 2 and only play interstate teams at the G all the way to the flag.
Conversely though it feels like a 3rd or 4th finish is just making up the numbers, much stronger Geelong teams have lost finals in Adelaide in recent times, Sydney are more gettable imo but they now can rest any players with niggles to be prime for their first final. If we were to meet say the Dogs in week 2 then I think a straight sets exit looms.
But geez last nights wasted opportunity for top 2 stings. This would probably be the weakest top 4 side I think we have had over the last 15 years but it's a year where you can pinch a flag as there are no distinct powerhouse teams (Not with Sydney's form since July). This is an opportunity we have been begging for over all those top 2 finishes, 3 interstate teams in the top 4 where the odds are finish top 2 and only play interstate teams at the G all the way to the flag.
Conversely though it feels like a 3rd or 4th finish is just making up the numbers, much stronger Geelong teams have lost finals in Adelaide in recent times, Sydney are more gettable imo but they now can rest any players with niggles to be prime for their first final. If we were to meet say the Dogs in week 2 then I think a straight sets exit looms.
I can see Port and GWS losing by those margins Freo hopefully will be playing the last game of the H&A where they have to win to make finals, Dogs should be playing for a home final vs losing and having an interstate final so motivation is there. So imo the less likely thing is that we can pull off an 80 point win but it depends if WC turn up
So it isn’t about being the best team - just got to qualify best you can and then a bit of luck (opponents) and playing well and who knows…
The two best teams in it right now seem to be Bulldogs and Dawks…. But they are most likely to play each other round 1 of finals…(6th and 7th)…and then the winner of that plays the loser of 2nd and 3rd (GWS and Port) probably the next two in form teams.
So by time they get to Preliminary Final I reckon 3 of best 4 in form teams have been eliminated.
Anything can happen - and we can win it despite being probably the 6th or 7th best team in the finals!
The two best teams in it right now seem to be Bulldogs and Dawks…. But they are most likely to play each other round 1 of finals…(6th and 7th)…and then the winner of that plays the loser of 2nd and 3rd (GWS and Port) probably the next two in form teams.
So by time they get to Preliminary Final I reckon 3 of best 4 in form teams have been eliminated.
Anything can happen - and we can win it despite being probably the 6th or 7th best team in the finals!
catempire
Premium Platinum
You think the Bulldogs or Hawks would beat Sydney, Brisbane or Port in a current matchup? Can’t see it myself. They are not the two best current teams.
cats_09
Otters United
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You know how Scott often says it's not who you play but when you play them - well, Hawthorn may be doing enough for a late season finals charge but should they make it, their week 1 opponent could well go in favourite
It's 3 weeks until week 1 of the finals & Will Day was subbed out with a collarbone injury - he was taken to hospital before the end of the first quarter
If it's a break & requires surgery, he could be pushing it to play again this season let alone week 1 of the finals - so yeah, while the Hawks have had a good run of things lately, could a single injury at this time of year have the potential to derail things for them?
Or will someone step up in Day's absence?
It's 3 weeks until week 1 of the finals & Will Day was subbed out with a collarbone injury - he was taken to hospital before the end of the first quarter
If it's a break & requires surgery, he could be pushing it to play again this season let alone week 1 of the finals - so yeah, while the Hawks have had a good run of things lately, could a single injury at this time of year have the potential to derail things for them?
Or will someone step up in Day's absence?
Probably not - but I suppose the point is who knows. The equivalent last year would be carlton and GWS who looked unbeatable going into finals and both of them beat the loser of the preliminary finals but then lost in the preliminary (only just).
The point I suppose is that one of them likely to be eliminated round 1.
What could happen going into finals is that both Port and GWS are strong possibilities to lose round 24. And they both had narrow escapes last week…so top 3 teams are proving to be beatable… (certainly the 4th position team is as well!)
I suspect the Cats will have to have the attitude of “why not us” - rather than to adopt the (sometime logical) view of the fans that think the team is not as good as others in the finals. Cats winning first week (which is not out of the question) changes everything…
catempire
Premium Platinum
BTW, Dogs still a decent chance to miss the 8.
Whats their record at Ballarat - have they ever been beaten at Ballarat
Followed up by their annual capitulation in a home Prelim
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Sydney and brisbane are the types to beat themselves so its possible.
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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4th may not be too bad.
Sydney in Sydney and if we lose that then the winner of 5v8. Looking like BL v Carl/Fre/Coll.
Better than Port/GWS home/away then losing that could be WB/Haw.
Sydney in Sydney and if we lose that then the winner of 5v8. Looking like BL v Carl/Fre/Coll.
Better than Port/GWS home/away then losing that could be WB/Haw.
Feel like they don’t play the ground too well compared to Marvel. In spite of the Dogs’ recent form and odds with the bookies ($1.50 to $2.60), I think this is close to a 50-50 proposition.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Those odds are off. This is a top 2 team against one battling for the 8.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Given how wce are playing today maybe we could beat them by the 80pts we need.
But still i doubt we pinch 2nd 3rd or 4th is more likely.
But still i doubt we pinch 2nd 3rd or 4th is more likely.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Dogs vs giants? Nah on their day i actually think the giants are a better team than the dogs-but venue does make it a 50-50.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Yes and no.
2nd which would have given us port or gws at the G is easier than syd in syd.
But i agree (if we lose week one) bris at mcg or carlton (i think they get 8th) is much preferable to the dogs in week 2.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Which would make the odds off, my exact point.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Thats fair..i thought you meant the dogs were more certain..i think kingsley will really challenge them.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Yes GWS are playing as well as anyone right now.
Alright, everyone hold your laughter at imagining us thrashing any team after last night's performance.
But....
If Freo beat Port by about 20 points and Bulldogs beat GWS by any margin...it looks like about a 100 point win against WCE would be enough to climb into 2nd. I realise we play first so the players won't know what they need, but they would vaguely assume a 100+ point win is what it takes to keep them "in it".
Essentially we need Freo to be fired up and efficient next week, after we absolutely pulverise the Eagles. Then we need the Bulldogs to win to lock in a finals spot.
Unlikely that this all lines up, but West Coast at their absolute worst can be pretty damn bad and the other sides have finals on the line while playing at home (sort of for the Bulldogs).
But....
If Freo beat Port by about 20 points and Bulldogs beat GWS by any margin...it looks like about a 100 point win against WCE would be enough to climb into 2nd. I realise we play first so the players won't know what they need, but they would vaguely assume a 100+ point win is what it takes to keep them "in it".
Essentially we need Freo to be fired up and efficient next week, after we absolutely pulverise the Eagles. Then we need the Bulldogs to win to lock in a finals spot.
Unlikely that this all lines up, but West Coast at their absolute worst can be pretty damn bad and the other sides have finals on the line while playing at home (sort of for the Bulldogs).
