Hawthorn - 20 flags by 2050

[Roddy]

Come what may you'll find us striving.

That's the way we are at Hawthorn....

 

[Roddy]

Jag a flag this year and it’s 55/13 = 4.23. That also means 25/6 = 4.167 from the balance. Much more manageable. Also gives the club a crack at another 2 rebuilds.

At the same time the Swans, Pies and Cats will probably make the finals in all years but with far fewer flags.

But with a significantly superior 'winning percentage'. And as we all know, that's much more important...

 

[beerbandit]

I would be willing to bet that our two clubs will face each other in at least 7 finals during that time.

Grand Finals or Finals?

 

[Walshawk]

7 in 25?

Nah don’t think so. They’d be happy to be on 15 by 2050

Absolutely not. I would not take two guaranteed flags in the next 25 years. I would be very disappointed with that. We will comfortably win more. We’re not Collingwood.

 

[beerbandit]

Absolutely not. I would not take two guaranteed flags in the next 25 years. I would be very disappointed with that. We will comfortably win more. We’re not Collingwood.

Comfortably win more ? In a soon to be 19 team comp.

I like the confidence, but I think 2 in 25 is reasonable. Most clubs would take that.

 

[Hawkk]

Comfortably win more ? In a soon to be 19 team comp.

I like the confidence, but I think 2 in 25 is reasonable. Most clubs would take that.

Most would, and maybe it’s irrational, however:

1960s 1 flag, 2 GF’s
1970s 3 flags, 4 GF’s
1980s 4 flags, 7 GF’s
1990’s 1 flag, 1 GF
2000’s 1 flag, 1 GF
2010’s 3 flags, 4 GF’s
2020’s ???, ???

There are at least 9 teams in the soon to be 19 team competition that rely on AFL guarantees to survive so it’s not an even competition. When was the last time a poor club won a flag (the Dogs aren’t, they were one of six clubs that didn’t need Covid money)

 

[beerbandit]

Most would, and maybe it’s irrational, however:

1960s 1 flag, 2 GF’s
1970s 3 flags, 4 GF’s
1980s 4 flags, 7 GF’s
1990’s 1 flag, 1 GF
2000’s 1 flag, 1 GF
2010’s 3 flags, 4 GF’s
2020’s ???, ???

There are at least 9 teams in the soon to be 19 team competition that rely on AFL guarantees to survive so it’s not an even competition. When was the last time a poor club won a flag (the Dogs aren’t, they were one of six clubs that didn’t need Covid money)

I’m not doubting your clubs past strike rate, it is second only to Brisbane.

But, majority of the flags were in the VFL era, and your 3 peat from 13-15 was with a generational team.

Its only getting harder to win them, but you are favourites for this years one but there is a lot of dust to settle in this season yet.

I still think if you guys got to 15 by 2050 would be a good result.

 

[Hawkk]

I’m not doubting your clubs past strike rate, it is second only to Brisbane.

But, majority of the flags were in the VFL era, and your 3 peat from 13-15 was with a generational team.

Its only getting harder to win them, but you are favourites for this years one but there is a lot of dust to settle in this season yet.

I still think if you guys got to 15 by 2050 would be a good result.

My point is, even if there are 19 teams in the competition there is a clear divide between clubs that regularly compete for flags and those that don’t.

Since 2000, we’ve only had 11 premiers (with all bar Melbourne making multiple Grand Finals, and you could probably scratch Essendon off this list (2000) given they haven’t won a final for 21 years)

Hawthorn 4 from 5 GF’s
Brisbane 4 from 5 GF’s
Geelong 4 from 6 GF’s
Richmond 3 from 3 GF’s
Collingwood 2 from 7 GF’s
Sydney 2 from 7 GF’s
West Coast 2 from 4 GF’s
Port Adelaide 1 from 2 GF’s
Essendon 1 from 2 GF’s
W Bulldogs 1 from 2 GF’s
Melbourne 1 from 1 GF

Forget the flags, the Grand Finals are the most telling. The Hawks, Lions, Cats, Tigers, Pies, Swans and Eagles have combined for 37 of the 50 GF pairings. And guess who 4 of the 6 favourites for this years flag are - Hawthorn ($5.00), Brisbane ($6.50) Geelong ($11:00), Collingwood ($11.00) and Sydney ($15.00)

I would argue that the divide has got worse since the expansion from 16 to 18 teams — this is the most uneven the competition has been since the 1967-1989 where the Hawks (7 flags), Blues (7 flags), Tigers (5 flags), North (2 flags) and Dons (2 flags) dominated flags.

We’re now in a position where the same teams just pick the eyes out of poor performing teams and just raid them for FA and trades. Case in point, the Hawks with Port Adelaide (Stephen Gilham, Shaun Burgoyne, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon and Chad Wingard) and now seemingly West Coast - who have absolutely lost their bundle.

It’s not a case of Hawthorn exceptionalism, it’s just the reality of the two tiered AFL where half a dozen clubs continually rebuild and find themselves back in contention quicker than the rest.

 

[rapidfire7]

My point is, even if there are 19 teams in the competition there is a clear divide between clubs that regularly compete for flags and those that don’t.

Since 2000, we’ve only had 11 premiers (with all bar Melbourne making multiple Grand Finals, and you could probably scratch Essendon off this list (2000) given they haven’t won a final for 21 years)

Hawthorn 4 from 5 GF’s
Brisbane 4 from 5 GF’s
Geelong 4 from 6 GF’s
Richmond 3 from 3 GF’s
Collingwood 2 from 7 GF’s
Sydney 2 from 7 GF’s
West Coast 2 from 4 GF’s
Port Adelaide 1 from 2 GF’s
Essendon 1 from 2 GF’s
W Bulldogs 1 from 2 GF’s
Melbourne 1 from 1 GF

Forget the flags, the Grand Finals are the most telling. The Hawks, Lions, Cats, Tigers, Pies, Swans and Eagles have combined for 37 of the 50 GF pairings. And guess who 4 of the 6 favourites for this years flag are - Hawthorn ($5.00), Brisbane ($6.50) Geelong ($11:00), Collingwood ($11.00) and Sydney ($15.00)

I would argue that the divide has got worse since the expansion from 16 to 18 teams — this is the most uneven the competition has been since the 1967-1989 where the Hawks (7 flags), Blues (7 flags), Tigers (5 flags), North (2 flags) and Dons (2 flags) dominated flags.

We’re now in a position where the same teams just pick the eyes out of poor performing teams and just raid them for FA and trades. Case in point, the Hawks with Port Adelaide (Stephen Gilham, Shaun Burgoyne, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon and Chad Wingard) and now seemingly West Coast - who have absolutely lost their bundle.

It’s not a case of Hawthorn exceptionalism, it’s just the reality of the two tiered AFL where half a dozen clubs continually rebuild and find themselves back in contention quicker than the rest.

A little misleading saying 7 GFs for Collingwood. Draw should not be included IMO.

 

[Fadge]

My point is, even if there are 19 teams in the competition there is a clear divide between clubs that regularly compete for flags and those that don’t.

Since 2000, we’ve only had 11 premiers (with all bar Melbourne making multiple Grand Finals, and you could probably scratch Essendon off this list (2000) given they haven’t won a final for 21 years)

Hawthorn 4 from 5 GF’s
Brisbane 4 from 5 GF’s
Geelong 4 from 6 GF’s
Richmond 3 from 3 GF’s
Collingwood 2 from 7 GF’s
Sydney 2 from 7 GF’s
West Coast 2 from 4 GF’s
Port Adelaide 1 from 2 GF’s
Essendon 1 from 2 GF’s
W Bulldogs 1 from 2 GF’s
Melbourne 1 from 1 GF

Forget the flags, the Grand Finals are the most telling. The Hawks, Lions, Cats, Tigers, Pies, Swans and Eagles have combined for 37 of the 50 GF pairings. And guess who 4 of the 6 favourites for this years flag are - Hawthorn ($5.00), Brisbane ($6.50) Geelong ($11:00), Collingwood ($11.00) and Sydney ($15.00)

I would argue that the divide has got worse since the expansion from 16 to 18 teams — this is the most uneven the competition has been since the 1967-1989 where the Hawks (7 flags), Blues (7 flags), Tigers (5 flags), North (2 flags) and Dons (2 flags) dominated flags.

We’re now in a position where the same teams just pick the eyes out of poor performing teams and just raid them for FA and trades. Case in point, the Hawks with Port Adelaide (Stephen Gilham, Shaun Burgoyne, Jarman Impey, Karl Amon and Chad Wingard) and now seemingly West Coast - who have absolutely lost their bundle.

It’s not a case of Hawthorn exceptionalism, it’s just the reality of the two tiered AFL where half a dozen clubs continually rebuild and find themselves back in contention quicker than the rest.

Sounds as though we've just established who the modern day powerhouse teams are...

 

[Sam_100]

Hawthorn will likely win a couple of flags in consecutive years in the next few years the way they are performing at the moment and good on them. But they won't win any more because the AFL will introduce some rule to nullify their advantage and bring them back into the pack. Having the same teams getting into the Grand Final year in year out is not good for business from AFL's perspective, it has to share the love across all 19 teams.

 

[Hawkk]

A little misleading saying 7 GFs for Collingwood. Draw should not be included IMO.

My mistake, for some reason I thought they made a GF in 2022 (which is wrong)

2002, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2018, 2023

It’s still very impressive

It’s pretty amazing to think that 5 teams have made at least 5 GF’s since 2000

 

[Hawkk]

Hawthorn will likely win a couple of flags in consecutive years in the next few years the way they are performing at the moment and good on them. But they won't win any more because the AFL will introduce some rule to nullify their advantage and bring them back into the pack. Having the same teams getting into the Grand Final year in year out is not good for business from AFL's perspective, it has to share the love across all 19 teams.

I still remember when Andrew Newbold joined the commission (in early 2016) and claimed that the Bulldogs winning the flag would be the best thing for football.

Next minute…

I’m surprised they haven’t thrown a bone to the Saints, who would have far more uplift for the metrics than the Dogs given their latent fan base

 

[Bushdid911]

I still remember when Andrew Newbold joined the commission (in early 2016) and claimed that the Bulldogs winning the flag would be the best thing for football.

Next minute…

I’m surprised they haven’t thrown a bone to the Saints, who would have far more uplift for the metrics than the Dogs given their latent fan base

It depends what you think is the best thing for football. Since 2016 we've had 7 different clubs win flags over 9 years. If you just look at the past 5 years as many clubs have won flags as did from 1967-1989.

 

[rapidfire7]

Jeff will be 102 in 2050. Interesting..

 

[Roddy]

Jeff will be 102 in 2050. Interesting..

Jeff who?

 

[Mr Meow]

Jeff who?

Farmer.

 

[threesixpio]

 

[threesixpio]

Very fair assessment imo

 

[CarterS]

Jon Ralph says Hawthorn have 10 players not in their first 22 who would get into every single other team in the competition. Ridiculous exxageration. Media are cooked.

 

[randyzany]

Jon Ralph says Hawthorn have 10 players not in their first 22 who would get into every single other team in the competition. Ridiculous exxageration. Media are cooked.

View attachment 2269786

Probably trying to jinx them, putting heavy expectations on young team hoping that they might end up wilting under the weight of those expectations in September.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Jon Ralph says Hawthorn have 10 players not in their first 22 who would get into every single other team in the competition. Ridiculous exxageration. Media are cooked.

View attachment 2269786

Yeah, it's a massive exaggeration, but maybe he means when the list is fully fit(which rarely happens).

Once Worpel, Scrimshaw, MacDonald, Lewis and Dear are fit, players like Ward, CJ, Morrison, Maginness, Bruest and Gunston are likely squeezed out of the senior side.

Assuming he is meaning Hustwaite, Reeves and Mitchell are the other 3, I think you'd still struggle to say that they'd all play in ever other side.
I reckon only Ward, CJ and Breust might.

That's not to say that other clubs wont come knocking for Ward, Hustwaite and Reeves at the end of the year though.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Jon Ralph says Hawthorn have 10 players not in their first 22 who would get into every single other team in the competition. Ridiculous exxageration. Media are cooked.

View attachment 2269786

Agree completely stupid. Maybe 10 who could get a game at at least one or 2 clubs but certainly not that many for every other team (wouldn’t even be 6 let alone 10 from the starting 22 who would)

 

[flamin_heck]

How’s the AFL media. This time last year we were being told Mitchell is on borrowed time and the list is rubbish.
Hawthorn will have troughs this season and the knives will come out. Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

How’s the AFL media. This time last year we were being told Mitchell is on borrowed time and the list is rubbish.
Hawthorn will have troughs this season and the knives will come out. Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems.

April 15, 2024.

Granted it's from one of the dumbest blokes in footy media, but still....