Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[Vankri]

Can someone expand on the bolded for me please? Why was it crazy to give away a pick in the mid teens and 2nd and 3rd round to get pick 3? Granted I'm not a list manager but would have thought it was a bold and somewhat inspired move.

Is your pick count off? Happy to be corrected but I thought it amounted to pick 12 from last year, plus Carlton’s first rounder this year plus their second rounder this year to get the Hawks pick 14. Then 12+14 packaged for 3 which was always the target according to Austin their list manager.

You can extrapolate on Carlton’s finishing position this year but on current ladder it would be pick 12 + pick 3 (!) + pick 22 = Jagga Smith. Note that I don’t expect Carlton to finish 16th and there are subtleties in the number of northern academy players coming this year, but a future pick trade is always reflective of a bet on where you see your list and club finishing.

Why this is crazy to me is that the % chance of success of a draftee is much lower than (most) people think, and cannot be relied on to patch up an immediate issue with a list eg lack of a particular type of midfielder. It can take years for a player to reach the right level to impact games, they can end up having to switch positions, and as proven this year you never what happens in the short term with injuries.

Not every player is ready to be near elite AFL level from the get go like N Daicos or Sheezel. And for a list that needs to contend right now I really think they would have been better off getting Houston or Petracca. In fact I reckon Carlton could be sitting 3-0 right now if they had either considering how close they have been and it would be ridiculous to say so of Jagga Smith before having him seen play a single game of AFL footy.

It’s a list management question: are you in rebuild mode and if that’s the case pick 12 last year, 3-6 and 22-25 this year is a better bet than one draftee only, or are you going to push your list to contend right now and in that case you should go for known quantity as elite players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Is your pick count off? Happy to be corrected but I thought it amounted to pick 12 from last year, plus Carlton’s first rounder this year plus their second rounder this year to get the Hawks pick 14. Then 12+14 packaged for 3 which was always the target according to Austin their list manager.

You can extrapolate on Carlton’s finishing position this year but on current ladder it would be pick 12 + pick 3 (!) + pick 22 = Jagga Smith. Note that I don’t expect Carlton to finish 16th and there are subtleties in the number of northern academy players coming this year, but a future pick trade is always reflective of a bet on where you see your list and club finishing.

Why this is crazy to me is that the % chance of success of a draftee is much lower than (most) people think, and cannot be relied on to patch up an immediate issue with a list eg lack of a particular type of midfielder. It can take years for a player to reach the right level to impact games, they can end up having to switch positions, and as proven this year you never what happens in the short term with injuries.

Not every player is ready to be near elite AFL level from the get go like N Daicos or Sheezel. And for a list that needs to contend right now I really think they would have been better off getting Houston or Petracca. In fact I reckon Carlton could be sitting 3-0 right now if they had either considering how close they have been and it would be ridiculous to say so of Jagga Smith before having him seen play a single game of AFL footy.

It’s a list management question: are you in rebuild mode and if that’s the case pick 12 last year, 3-6 and 22-25 this year is a better bet than one draftee only, or are you going to push your list to contend right now and in that case you should go for known quantity as elite players.

If we added Trac or Houston we would have almost certainly lost TDK this year. Something that looks to be a challenge as is.

Would much rather keep him than gain either of those two.

 

[Vankri]

If we added Trac or Houston we would have almost certainly lost TDK this year. Something that looks to be a challenge as is.

Would much rather keep him than gain either of those two.

I don’t know what makes you say this with the utmost certainty. It’s a guess. Houston’s contract would be lower than Trac’s too. Bear in mind if a team is looking to contend right now they have much more luck getting players to sign for unders. I can equally guess that if Carlton was 3-0 and looking like the team to beat TDK would have signed for $1m/5y last week.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I don’t know what makes you say this with the utmost certainty. It’s a guess. Houston’s contract would be lower than Trac’s too. Bear in mind if a team is looking to contend right now they have much more luck getting players to sign for unders. I can equally guess that if Carlton was 3-0 and looking like the team to beat TDK would have signed for $1m/5y last week.

If the max Carlton can afford is 1.1-1.2 million per season for TDK, what makes you think we could have added Trac on a million + or Houston on 8-900k and also keep TDK? Doesn't make much sense.

 

[LordLucifer]

Has this Carlton list already peaked?​

Absolutely peaked, and now falling down the other side of the mountain.

 

[ShadowCat]

Cannot believe that Cripps is already 30. With his bash and crash style, I'd say he has 3 or 4 years left max (same age as Selwood retirement, at a guess).

That's really sad, as he deserves a flag. Can't see it coming with this list though.

 

[Vankri]

If the max Carlton can afford is 1.1-1.2 million per season for TDK, what makes you think we could have added Trac on a million + or Houston on 8-900k and also keep TDK? Doesn't make much sense.

‘The max’ is not the right way to think. It’s the max you’d be willing to give, or the minimum acceptable by the other party. I’m not across your out of contract players but there’s always things you can do, even the more extreme trade dump of players to fit in an elite player and resign another. I think your cap is tight in the short term taking into account TDK but you don’t have a salary cap at 100% already locked in for the next 7 years, you can back load, you can accept unders for a H Mackay, you can dump Williams for a freebie pick.

Anyway you’re clearly trying every angle you can to post rationalise the decision. I think I’ve made my position clear on the cons of Smith vs multiple draftees and vs established elite. The in between strategy your club went on doesn’t make sense to me unless they are proven over time that Smith is a N Daicos level generational talent. I’ll wait and see and give respect to your recruiters if so.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

‘The max’ is not the right way to think. It’s the max you’d be willing to give, or the minimum acceptable by the other party. I’m not across your out of contract players but there’s always things you can do, even the more extreme trade dump of players to fit in an elite player and resign another. I think your cap is tight in the short term taking into account TDK but you don’t have a salary cap at 100% already locked in for the next 7 years, you can back load, you can accept unders for a H Mackay, you can dump Williams for a freebie pick.

Anyway you’re clearly trying every angle you can to post rationalise the decision. I think I’ve made my position clear on the cons of Smith vs multiple draftees and vs established elite. The in between strategy your club went on doesn’t make sense to me unless they are proven over time that Smith is a N Daicos level generational talent. I’ll wait and see and give respect to your recruiters if so.

Can't dump Williams until next year as a FA unfortunately. Contracts locked in regardless of whether we trade him apparently.

If we could have I'd be calling for heads for not doing it sooner.

 

[Daka]

Cripps is a match winner, seen him take the team on his back countless times to get them over the line 2x Brownlow medallist

TDK is clearly there best player and probably the best ruck in the league

They’ve got the cattle.. it’s just coaching imo

Other than Cripps, TDK & Weitering who are their good players? Sam Walsh doesn't seem like a great player anymore maybe the injuries have slowed him but their list is average as, they lost to us ffs lol... and we have just been smacked by 70+ and 80 + points not a good luck for the Blue Baggers.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Other than Cripps, TDK & Weitering who are their good players? Sam Walsh doesn't seem like a great player anymore maybe the injuries have slowed him but their list is average as, they lost to us ffs lol... and we have just been smacked by 70+ and 80 + points not a good luck for the Blue Baggers.

Curnow not a good player?

 

[NetworkNerd]

Other than Cripps, TDK & Weitering who are their good players? Sam Walsh doesn't seem like a great player anymore maybe the injuries have slowed him but their list is average as, they lost to us ffs lol... and we have just been smacked by 70+ and 80 + points not a good luck for the Blue Baggers.

Curnow???

 

[Daka]

Curnow not a good player?

Forgot about him, but than it drops off from there.

 

[doppleganger]

Who are ur kids outside of Nicky again? The cupboard is bare

When did the AFL create an U22 development competition?

AFL is a senior men's football competition.

Why so many fans accept clubs turning themselves into development programs for 5 years with no guarantee of future success is beyond me.

Pies have the following who are 22-29 the sweet spot as established senior AFL players - McStay, Cameron, Moore, DeGoey, Maynard, Houston, Schultz, Lipinski, J.Daicos, Perryman, Quaynor, Hill, McReery, N.Daicos.

Kids under 22 are usually speculative and most won't actually transition into established AFL senior players...despite all fans hoping ALL their top draft picks will be the next big thing.

A few will put their hand up (probably the ones fans least expect to ie a rookie draft player) and highly fancied first rounders may be delisted without amounting to anything.

We didn't need to draft an 18year old Bobby Hill or Perryman and see them spend 3 years learning how to play senior footy, instead just add them when ready to go.

 

[Cyber_punk]

2 drafts to snag some higher talent right before Tassie come in.

Too late for a full rebuild really but a refresh is possible.

 

[NetworkNerd]

2 drafts to snag some higher talent right before Tassie come in.

Too late for a full rebuild really but a refresh is possible.

They don't have their first round pick this year unless they trade back into the first round

 

[Mr Meow]

They don't have their first round pick this year unless they trade back into the first round

McKay and Walsh could get them something decent maybe.

 

[TheUnicorn]

2 drafts to snag some higher talent right before Tassie come in.

Too late for a full rebuild really but a refresh is possible.

Yer it's terrible timing they could be in for another long stretch of pain.

 

[WillHayward]

Just fold them. 18 team competition when Tassie come in.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Bottom 6 team

 

[SSSSSS]

Carlton have 4 A graders, 2-3 B graders and about 14 VFL plodders.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton have 4 A graders, 2-3 B graders and about 14 VFL plodders.

Generous

 

[Atomboy]

They don't have their first round pick this year unless they trade back into the first round

They’ll get pick 2 when TDK leaves

 

[doppleganger]

They’ll get pick 2 when TDK leaves

And waste it on a bloke who can't kick like Walsh

 

[fnerd]

Is your pick count off? Happy to be corrected but I thought it amounted to pick 12 from last year, plus Carlton’s first rounder this year plus their second rounder this year to get the Hawks pick 14. Then 12+14 packaged for 3 which was always the target according to Austin their list manager.

You can extrapolate on Carlton’s finishing position this year but on current ladder it would be pick 12 + pick 3 (!) + pick 22 = Jagga Smith. Note that I don’t expect Carlton to finish 16th and there are subtleties in the number of northern academy players coming this year, but a future pick trade is always reflective of a bet on where you see your list and club finishing.

Why this is crazy to me is that the % chance of success of a draftee is much lower than (most) people think, and cannot be relied on to patch up an immediate issue with a list eg lack of a particular type of midfielder. It can take years for a player to reach the right level to impact games, they can end up having to switch positions, and as proven this year you never what happens in the short term with injuries.

Not every player is ready to be near elite AFL level from the get go like N Daicos or Sheezel. And for a list that needs to contend right now I really think they would have been better off getting Houston or Petracca. In fact I reckon Carlton could be sitting 3-0 right now if they had either considering how close they have been and it would be ridiculous to say so of Jagga Smith before having him seen play a single game of AFL footy.

It’s a list management question: are you in rebuild mode and if that’s the case pick 12 last year, 3-6 and 22-25 this year is a better bet than one draftee only, or are you going to push your list to contend right now and in that case you should go for known quantity as elite players.

 

[fnerd]

2 drafts to snag some higher talent right before Tassie come in.

Too late for a full rebuild really but a refresh is possible.

Nope that’s 1 more draft as others pointed out , jagga smith will probably end up costing them something like p5/6 p12 and p23/4…..
Poor kid would need to end up prime Judd for that trade to level out .
- (imagine if hawks pick up future hall of famer KPF with said first rounder) , it’d be the Judd v Kennedy debate all over again!

owww boy wowweee!

Normal circumstances you’d just blow the joint up and start again but being so close to Tassie best they can be is a “competitive “ middle of the road team (no man’s land)for the next 4-5 years whilst they slowly and excruciatingly replenish a very unbalanced list