Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[Fadge]

If Ken Hinkley was your coach in 2023, Carlton would of won the flag

Carlton were miles from the genuine contenders in 2023.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton were miles from the genuine contenders in 2023.

Just like the Pies in 2025

 

[Fadge]

Just like the Pies in 2025

Who are going to be the contenders in 2025, Nostradamus?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Who are going to be the contenders in 2025, Nostradamus?

Not the oldest team in history. Will run out of legs through the year and turn to cactus, only a matter of time

 

[Fadge]

Not the oldest team in history. Will run out of legs through the year and turn to cactus, only a matter of time

You 'hope'.

What about the uber talented Carlton list, who want for nothing after building and rebuilding for more than two decades?

Remember, this is what that thread is about.

 

[Mr Meow]

Who are going to be the contenders in 2025, Nostradamus?

The Nostradamus

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You 'hope'.

What about the uber talented Carlton list, who want for nothing after building and rebuilding for more than two decades?

Remember, this is what that thread is about.

As I've said before, think the Blues will be just fine. Many key indicators are looking good, we're just butchering the ball going inside 50 ATM and not converting when we do get shots on goal.

Defensively we're in good shape and the midfield has been performing well thus far.

Either way much better set up for the future than the Pies.

 

[Fadge]

As I've said before, think the Blues will be just fine. Many key indicators are looking good, we're just butchering the ball going inside 50 ATM and not converting when we do get shots on goal.

Defensively we're in good shape and the midfield has been performing well thus far.

Either way much better set up for the future than the Pies.

Ah yes... 'the future'.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Ah yes... 'the future'.

Yes, that thing the Pies mortgaged last trade period when they doubled down on an already incredibly old list.

 

[doppleganger]

Yes, that thing the Pies mortgaged last trade period when they doubled down on an already incredibly old list.

Perryman is not even 12 months older than TDK and Cerra

Houston is younger than Charlie Curnow.

We brought in quality 26-27 players who have plenty of football in the tank.

You actually need to ensure we have quality senior leaders when the likes of Pendles, Sidey and Howe retire.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Perryman is not even 12 months older than TDK and Cerra

Houston is younger than Charlie Curnow.

We brought in quality 26-27 players who have plenty of football in the tank.

You actually need to ensure we have quality senior leaders when the likes of Pendles, Sidey and Howe retire.

Who are ur kids outside of Nicky again? The cupboard is bare

 

[nineteen eighty]

...

From the lack of modern thinking on the game plan and year after year of the same issues under Voss (rebound and spread), to the lack of balance in the list, to the craziness of the picks move for Jagga Smith, not contending this year, the midfield issues once/if Cripps is past his peak, down to the detail of the regret over the Kennedy trade. It was all there to be seen if you were looking at it with a cool head.

...

Can someone expand on the bolded for me please? Why was it crazy to give away a pick in the mid teens and 2nd and 3rd round to get pick 3? Granted I'm not a list manager but would have thought it was a bold and somewhat inspired move.

 

[Fadge]

Perryman is not even 12 months older than TDK and Cerra

Houston is younger than Charlie Curnow.

We brought in quality 26-27 players who have plenty of football in the tank.

You actually need to ensure we have quality senior leaders when the likes of Pendles, Sidey and Howe retire.

Shhhh.

You know it's all about having a young list with potential ahead of proven, experienced performers who actually consistently get the job done....

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Can someone expand on the bolded for me please? Why was it crazy to give away a pick in the mid teens and 2nd and 3rd round to get pick 3? Granted I'm not a list manager but would have thought it was a bold and somewhat inspired move.

It wasn't.

 

[Fadge]

Can someone expand on the bolded for me please? Why was it crazy to give away a pick in the mid teens and 2nd and 3rd round to get pick 3? Granted I'm not a list manager but would have thought it was a bold and somewhat inspired move.

It was a great move, if they're not interested in immediately improving their list at a time when their top 6 players - a top 6 whom Carlton are more reliant on than any other team in the competition are reliant on their top 6 - are in the absolute prime of their careers.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It was a great move, if they're not interested in immediately improving their list at a time when their top 6 players - a top 6 whom Carlton are more reliant on than any other team in the competition are reliant on their top 6 - are in the absolute prime of their careers.

Once again, statements with 0 evidence to support them.

By what measures do Carlton rely on their top 6 more than anyone else in the comp?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Crickets... Interesting

 

[bourbons]

Interesting move from Voss to bring in three kids for a game against an arch rival that's expected to pull over 80k.

Reckon someone's finally had a not so subtle word to him, it ain't working mate change it up and play some kids. Couldn't go much worse lol

Cooper Lord getting dropped in the first place was mind boggling, was far from our worst. Moir looks like he has some tricks from the admittedly very small sample size, could thrive in that big crowd environment.

Even if he doesn't tonight, gotta start getting some games into these guys and see if we can unearth some actual league standard players, agree with the selections - well, except for Boyd getting dropped, another utterly mind boggling decision. One of the best kicks at the club and can actually play in defense, nah why would we need that

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Reckon someone's finally had a not so subtle word to him, it ain't working mate change it up and play some kids. Couldn't go much worse lol

Cooper Lord getting dropped in the first place was mind boggling, was far from our worst. Moir looks like he has some tricks from the admittedly very small sample size, could thrive in that big crowd environment.

Even if he doesn't tonight, gotta start getting some games into these guys, agree with the selections - well, except for Boyd getting dropped, another utterly mind boggling decision. One of the best kicks at the club and can actually play in defense, nah why would we need that

Lord should have been playing anyway.

 

[nineteen eighty]

It was a great move, if they're not interested in immediately improving their list at a time when their top 6 players - a top 6 whom Carlton are more reliant on than any other team in the competition are reliant on their top 6 - are in the absolute prime of their careers.

There is zero wrong with being top heavy. Richmond won 3 flags with a team made up mainly of role players. The game plan was beautiful and even our stars were selfless and played "team first" 100% of the time.

For mine, it's Carlton's game plan that's the biggest problem and not the list.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

There is zero wrong with being top heavy. Richmond won 3 flags with a team made up mainly of role players. The game plan was beautiful and even our stars were selfless and played "team first" 100% of the time.

For mine, it's Carlton's game plan that's the biggest problem and not the list.

List could certainly do with some tinkering at this stgae

 

[Vankri]

Can someone expand on the bolded for me please? Why was it crazy to give away a pick in the mid teens and 2nd and 3rd round to get pick 3? Granted I'm not a list manager but would have thought it was a bold and somewhat inspired move.

Is your pick count off? Happy to be corrected but I thought it amounted to pick 12 from last year, plus Carlton’s first rounder this year plus their second rounder this year to get the Hawks pick 14. Then 12+14 packaged for 3 which was always the target according to Austin their list manager.

You can extrapolate on Carlton’s finishing position this year but on current ladder it would be pick 12 + pick 3 (!) + pick 22 = Jagga Smith. Note that I don’t expect Carlton to finish 16th and there are subtleties in the number of northern academy players coming this year, but a future pick trade is always reflective of a bet on where you see your list and club finishing.

Why this is crazy to me is that the % chance of success of a draftee is much lower than (most) people think, and cannot be relied on to patch up an immediate issue with a list eg lack of a particular type of midfielder. It can take years for a player to reach the right level to impact games, they can end up having to switch positions, and as proven this year you never what happens in the short term with injuries.

Not every player is ready to be near elite AFL level from the get go like N Daicos or Sheezel. And for a list that needs to contend right now I really think they would have been better off getting Houston or Petracca. In fact I reckon Carlton could be sitting 3-0 right now if they had either considering how close they have been and it would be ridiculous to say so of Jagga Smith before having him seen play a single game of AFL footy.

It’s a list management question: are you in rebuild mode and if that’s the case pick 12 last year, 3-6 and 22-25 this year is a better bet than one draftee only, or are you going to push your list to contend right now and in that case you should go for known quantity as elite players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Is your pick count off? Happy to be corrected but I thought it amounted to pick 12 from last year, plus Carlton’s first rounder this year plus their second rounder this year to get the Hawks pick 14. Then 12+14 packaged for 3 which was always the target according to Austin their list manager.

You can extrapolate on Carlton’s finishing position this year but on current ladder it would be pick 12 + pick 3 (!) + pick 22 = Jagga Smith. Note that I don’t expect Carlton to finish 16th and there are subtleties in the number of northern academy players coming this year, but a future pick trade is always reflective of a bet on where you see your list and club finishing.

Why this is crazy to me is that the % chance of success of a draftee is much lower than (most) people think, and cannot be relied on to patch up an immediate issue with a list eg lack of a particular type of midfielder. It can take years for a player to reach the right level to impact games, they can end up having to switch positions, and as proven this year you never what happens in the short term with injuries.

Not every player is ready to be near elite AFL level from the get go like N Daicos or Sheezel. And for a list that needs to contend right now I really think they would have been better off getting Houston or Petracca. In fact I reckon Carlton could be sitting 3-0 right now if they had either considering how close they have been and it would be ridiculous to say so of Jagga Smith before having him seen play a single game of AFL footy.

It’s a list management question: are you in rebuild mode and if that’s the case pick 12 last year, 3-6 and 22-25 this year is a better bet than one draftee only, or are you going to push your list to contend right now and in that case you should go for known quantity as elite players.

If we added Trac or Houston we would have almost certainly lost TDK this year. Something that looks to be a challenge as is.

Would much rather keep him than gain either of those two.

 

[Vankri]

If we added Trac or Houston we would have almost certainly lost TDK this year. Something that looks to be a challenge as is.

Would much rather keep him than gain either of those two.

I don’t know what makes you say this with the utmost certainty. It’s a guess. Houston’s contract would be lower than Trac’s too. Bear in mind if a team is looking to contend right now they have much more luck getting players to sign for unders. I can equally guess that if Carlton was 3-0 and looking like the team to beat TDK would have signed for $1m/5y last week.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I don’t know what makes you say this with the utmost certainty. It’s a guess. Houston’s contract would be lower than Trac’s too. Bear in mind if a team is looking to contend right now they have much more luck getting players to sign for unders. I can equally guess that if Carlton was 3-0 and looking like the team to beat TDK would have signed for $1m/5y last week.

If the max Carlton can afford is 1.1-1.2 million per season for TDK, what makes you think we could have added Trac on a million + or Houston on 8-900k and also keep TDK? Doesn't make much sense.