Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[catempire]

I have many questions but must are variations of why?

Kolo needs a less talented, uglier stunt double.

 

[cats_09]

Carlton, Collingwood or Geelong





As per another post, it's from the Monster Energy team dinner

 

[cats_09]

1 x 3rd round pick it is...

 

[Jumping Jack]

I've seen Jayden Laverde as name thrown in with Cats mentioned. Jumping Jack have you seen/heard anything on it?
I'm not his biggest fan but i'm also not a recruiter/Cats front office member so my opinion on him means diddly squat

Nothing on this one sorry


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[numbwombat]

Macrae is a funny one. A 33yo good player isn’t as likely to be cooked as they were 10-20 years ago. Looks a good player to me when I’ve seen him this year.

We’re still very dependent on Danger. I think at the end of the H+A it was 10-3 when he played, 5-5 with him missing.

A good inside mid for a couple of years could be very handy. Atkins and Bowes are good players but limited; Bruhn (& maybe Dempsey on the inside?) still developing; Holmes good but also valuable at half-back or wing; Clark, Clohesy and Knevitt all decent prospects but none guaranteed to make it. Blitz (as a ruckman) and Stanley both pretty close to done.

Think it depends a lot on the salary cap and other contracts. If the Dogs paid part of his contract, or we could heavily front-load it, Macrae makes sense. Paying $700k+ in 2027 looks a bit risky unless we have a lot of salary cap space.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I wonder how thorough the AFL can audit things tho

Take any player who is on the market , a wealthy third party says you join this particular club i will pay out your father in laws 500k mortgage on his house , how in hell would the AFL be able to pick that up

Everything gets scrutinised. Dangerfield's sister in law (married his brother) is employed by GFC on her own merit, and was there before Patrick left Adelaide or they were in-laws. Yet I know her remuneration and contract is looked at far more closely than any other non-football department employee at the club.

His brother in law Jordan Keras used to be in our VFL program, and his VFL contract and match payments were monitored.

 

[iameviljez]

Macrae is a funny one. A 33yo good player isn’t as likely to be cooked as they were 10-20 years ago. Looks a good player to me when I’ve seen him this year.

He's 30, unless you mean what he would be by the end of a new contract?

 

[Jumping Jack]

Out of 100%... how confident Smith is coming to Geelong

I’ve been 100% since I was privy to some specifics in July. Nothing I’ve heard recently gives me a reason to change my position.

These deal are never done til their “done” but history tells us that once a player nominates a club publicly then it’s invariably something that happens. There’s always a risk that something derails or a player has a change of heart but that’s not what I’m being told on this one.

The reason the media are all saying the same thing is because they’re all talking to the same people - football / player managers. And football managers at clubs - and player managers are all certain that Smith will be at Geelong.

Until I’m told otherwise, Smith will nominate Geelong by the end of this month.


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[Grimoz]

I’ve been 100% since I was privy to some specifics in July. Nothing I’ve heard recently gives me a reason to change my position.

These deal are never done til their “done” but history tells us that once a player nominates a club publicly then it’s invariably something that happens. There’s always a risk that something derails or a player has a change of heart but that’s not what I’m being told on this one.

The reason the media are all saying the same thing is because they’re all talking to the same people - football / player managers. And football managers at clubs - and player managers are all certain that Smith will be at Geelong.

Until I’m told otherwise, Smith will nominate Geelong by the end of this month.


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Lets be realistic, its either us or Hawthorn, if it was Collingwood he would have no reason to keep it a secret other than to stir up the fans (which he may very well be doing). But also in saying that Pies have a worse draft hand than us so if dogs want top dollar it wont be from them.

 

[moond0g]

Resume wise, surely Houston is worth more than Smith

And with reports suggesting that Port want 2 x first round picks for Houston, it's why I suggested something else common from the Bulldogs to them, though it may require some compromise from Port on the 2 first round picks

You'd assume he would have a better resume given he's 4 years older.

 

[iameviljez]

Lets be realistic, its either us or Hawthorn, if it was Collingwood he would have no reason to keep it a secret other than to stir up the fans (which he may very well be doing). But also in saying that Pies have a worse draft hand than us so if dogs want top dollar it wont be from them.

If it wasn't us, it'd be the biggest switch-up since Buddy went to Sydney instead of GWS.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Resume wise, surely Houston is worth more than Smith

And with reports suggesting that Port want 2 x first round picks for Houston, it's why I suggested something else common from the Bulldogs to them, though it may require some compromise from Port on the 2 first round picks

Houston has always been under rated by Victorian media. Now he's about to be a Victorian player he's getting credit.

 

[Grimoz]

I wonder how Ollie Lord is feeling after signing on with Port now that he cant get a game. From memory last year he killed it in the finals.

 

[cats_09]

You'd assume he would have a better resume given he's 4 years older.

Why would one assume that?

Just because a player is older doesn't mean they have the better resume - player careers aren't exactly linear where an older player has a better resume than a younger player

Nick Daicos is not yet 22, he already has won the Rising Star & all the young player in the league awards, he's a premiership player, 2 x All Australian and within the next 4 weeks he could also be a Brownlow medalist & Copeland Trophy winner

 

[cats_09]

Does this surprise anyone?

 

[Grimoz]

Does this surprise anyone?

No, would be good for a building club like West Coast or North

 

[moond0g]

Why would one assume that?

Just because a player is older doesn't mean they have the better resume - player careers aren't exactly linear where an older player has a better resume than a younger player

Nick Daicos is not yet 22, he already has won the Rising Star & all the young player in the league awards, he's a premiership player, 2 x All Australian and within the next 4 weeks he could also be a Brownlow medalist & Copeland Trophy winner

Nick Daicos is the outlier having those things on his resume as a 21yo, but I can guarantee you that he'll have more on his resume in 4 years' time than he does now. The same is true for every player, including Houston and Smith.

It's true that not all 27yo have a better resume than all 23yo. But every single individual player has a better resume as a 27yo than a 23yo. It's the difference between a within-person and between-person analysis.

Name one player who had fewer AA, BnF, or Brownlows as a 27yo than they did as a 23yo? It's not possible. So, age is the biggest predictor of number of awards received, or having a better 'resume'.

 

[cats_09]

Nick Daicos is the outlier having those things on his resume as a 21yo, but I can guarantee you that he'll have more on his resume in 4 years' time than he does now. The same is true for every player, including Houston and Smith.

It's true that not all 27yo have a better resume than all 23yo. But every single individual player has a better resume as a 27yo than a 23yo. It's the difference between a within-person and between-person analysis.

Name one player who had fewer AA, BnF, or Brownlows as a 27yo than they did as a 23yo? It's not possible. So, age is the biggest predictor of number of awards received, or having a better 'resume'.

Not quite the 23 & 27 ages

But Jobe Watson had a Brownlow at 25 and then at age 29 he didn't

 

[numbwombat]

He's 30, unless you mean what he would be by the end of a new contract?

Yeah I meant in 3 years. He’s definitely not cooked yet - if a 1 year contract were an option, I think he’d be a great signing, it’s the length that’s risky.

 

[Strange Cat]

Not quite the 23 & 27 ages

But Jobe Watson had a Brownlow at 25 and then at age 29 he didn't

Whatever it takes

 

[Munich]

Everything gets scrutinised. Dangerfield's sister in law (married his brother) is employed by GFC on her own merit, and was there before Patrick left Adelaide or they were in-laws. Yet I know her remuneration and contract is looked at far more closely than any other non-football department employee at the club.

His brother in law Jordan Keras used to be in our VFL program, and his VFL contract and match payments were monitored.

That's very reassuring actually.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Lets be realistic, its either us or Hawthorn, if it was Collingwood he would have no reason to keep it a secret other than to stir up the fans (which he may very well be doing). But also in saying that Pies have a worse draft hand than us so if dogs want top dollar it wont be from them.

I think you're right, and if it was Collingwood it's also likely he just would've come out and named them.

Collingwood are a bit of a sleeper in my opinion - not on the Bailey Smith deal, but overall during trade period. Seems to be a growing view that they'll offload some players and aim to get back in the game with some better draft picks. Noble is the start and although it looks like he triggered that, it could still end up with a draft pick back to the Pies that far outweighs his real value. If they do that with a few players they'll possibly create some angst within the playing group - but it will get them back in the game.

 

[cats_09]

Another name to reportedly cross off the list

 

[Boxhead_31]

Carlton, Collingwood or Geelong





As per another post, it's from the Monster Energy team dinner

They're all coming to Geelong

 

[Gunf]

I have admit i am loving the supposed neutrals collectively losing minds at the thought of us getting Smith for anything less than 2 firsts.

For example it is truly amazing how many Richmond supporters are screaming about it compared to Dogs supporters for example.