Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[Turbocat]

Most think Stanley is probably close to being done...Is our plan to have Conway as our #1 ruck in 2025.

Id think he would be the youngest ruck in the comp by a substantial amount of years…for a team that is expected to be a finals participant. . He is currently equal 6th youngest on our list. That obviously change in a few weeks…

 

[Turbocat]

No, it was blown up for them

By the players leaving ?

 

[Turbocat]

Herbert has been really good this year and improved more than I thought he could.
The thing that gives me pause if he's playing MF is his size-we already have a lot of these around 180cm mids including bruhn and Atkins and clohesy and Clark and mullin etc. It would be nice to have some more height there which is why it would be good if knevitt comes on. I wonder if the mix works unless say Herbert comes in and phases Atkins out.
It's less of an issue if they are drafting him as a specialist back pocket.

But on effort he probably deserves a rookie list year like Atkins did when he started. But guys like pike fill more of a list need so it's a tough one.

Good questions..

I cant see I can visualise him. Can he play in front of the others we have … or push Atkins from the side? Seems like a lot of guys just on or over 6ft. With the increase potency of small forwardlines ..could he be that Bews replacement type down back.

 

[Hinkley29]

And you seem to be under some wonderful delusional where getting dropped from the worst team in the comp means nothing. You really think their coaching staff are dropping future stars while playing Dow, Cumberland, etc? The first year guys have time but they couldn't scream any louder that they don't rate the rest of them.

Maybe listen to the guys who see them every day?

What exactly am I supposed to be listening to?

The “guys” that you refer to aren’t saying anything.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Most think Stanley is probably close to being done...Is our plan to have Conway as our #1 ruck in 2025.

Id think he would be the youngest ruck in the comp by a substantial amount of years…for a team that is expected to be a finals participant. . He is currently equal 6th youngest on our list. That obviously change in a few weeks…

Most importantly, which a few of us continually ‘TRY’ to emphasise, ‘CONSTANTLY‘, Conway’s development is now 18 months+ behind.

For some reason that fact is completely ignored!

Toby requires more time, 18 months+ to develop mass + agility, fitness + tank, before he has all the abilities to play ruck, full time.

How long do big guys, rucks + forwards take to hit their peak?

Toby’s DOB 24 April 2003 = 21yo now

Minus 18 months of injury = YOU DO MATHS

Toby is still two years away from playing AFL

Give him a break FF!!!

Totally support Toby playing AFL games, crucially contributes to development.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Caprion?

Was Captain and played the loose 3rd man across very well and also puts his head over it.

Granted older - 27 i think - but we know that doesnt bother us.

Go Catters

Nah I was commenting on Herbert.

 

[Turbocat]

Most importantly, which a few of us continually ‘TRY’ to emphasise, ‘CONSTANTLY‘, Conway’s development is now 18 months+ behind.

For some reason that fact is completely ignored!

Toby requires more time, 18 months+ to develop mass + agility, fitness + tank, before he has all the abilities to play ruck, full time.

How long do big guys, rucks + forwards take to hit their peak?

Toby’s DOB 24 April 2003 = 21yo now

Minus 18 months of injury = YOU DO MATHS

Toby is still two years away from playing AFL

Give him a break FF!!!

Totally support Toby playing AFL games, crucially contributes to development.

I was not disparaging Conway… only saying he will be the youngest #1 ruck out of the teams that are most likely to be a contender….

 

[Turbocat]

Because like most of us I can ID talent.
Ryan hasnt shown much although to be fair talls take time. But his contract extension says more about their lack of talls than anything else.
Gibcus is very good but brittle.
Brown has shown a fair bit and will be a classy player.
Sonsie probably would have been delisted if they didn't have so many trade outs and ditto Dow and Ross. Those guys won't be on a list in a couple of years.
I liked Clarke as a junior but he's coming off an acl.
Ralpsmith is questionable and is a role player at best.
Kosi is a giant spud and was getting dropped by the end of the year.
I like Campbell and mcauliffe but some of their other younger guys like banks and green the jury is much out on.
Any other role players they have are older eg miller lefau and young are all 26. This is why they offered balta overs 7yrs to stay as the depth beneath him isn't there.

They have very little talent under 25 when you line up the names compared to what us and a lot of teams have.

Most of their best young talent isn't even drafted yet. They have a great hand this draft but even if 5 or 6 of them really come on they won't be competitive for at least 4or 5 years-and most of their better players over 25 will be in their twilight by then (taranto etc).

They really are not far from a dream team list build. If they trade out players next year as well they will have added talent but will be like an expansion club. It will be a study of sorts who makes the finals first …Rich or Tasmania.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

They really are not far from a dream team list build. If they trade out players next year as well they will have added talent but will be like an expansion club. It will be a study of sorts who makes the finals first …Rich or Tasmania.

I'm not sure i would call the position they're in a dream list build

 

[Footy Smarts]

Most importantly, which a few of us continually ‘TRY’ to emphasise, ‘CONSTANTLY‘, Conway’s development is now 18 months+ behind.

For some reason that fact is completely ignored!

Toby requires more time, 18 months+ to develop mass + agility, fitness + tank, before he has all the abilities to play ruck, full time.

How long do big guys, rucks + forwards take to hit their peak?

Toby’s DOB 24 April 2003 = 21yo now

Minus 18 months of injury = YOU DO MATHS

Toby is still two years away from playing AFL

Give him a break FF!!!

Totally support Toby playing AFL games, crucially contributes to development.

He is young and I doubt he'll be our number 1 come finals. It's a big ask for a 22 year old.

But he's had a lot of training in amongst the injuries the last couple of years so he shouldn't be that far back if he gets fit.

He was held back from playing a long time in 2023 when he was in full training. Then this year he had a full preseason and played through until mid season. He was back training by finals. So it's not like he's had an ACL and been off for 12+ months.

I expect the aim next year will be to see what SDK can do as number 1 ruck. Get games in to Conway to see where he's at which also limits the load on SDK. And have Stanley in the VFL but ready to step in when needed

 

[Turbocat]

I'm not sure i would call the position they're in a dream list build

Around the time that the Suns and the Giants were assembled , it was spoken about the list gifted and assembled as being a list managers dream. Going to a draft and not having to pick this mid or that kpf it was a damp dream for guys like Clayton.. It turned out to be more dreamteam or fantasy leauge team. Good in a theoretical name game… but not when you deal with flesh and blood. Those two clubs have basically have shown how flawed the concept of a big group of talent is most of the high end are used to be the stars… and its probable that they eventually look elsewhere.

In comparison to suns etc .. Richmond might be able to hold their drafted talent , it sounds great to just be a guts and plunder the draft but the mega tank is no certainty to work… as a good list build is a blend of types.

 

[Hamingja]

Around the time that the Suns and the Giants were assembled , it was spoken about the list gifted and assembled as being a list managers dream. Going to a draft and not having to pick this mid or that kpf it was a damp dream for guys like Clayton.. It turned out to be more dreamteam or fantasy leauge team. Good in a theoretical name game… but not when you deal with flesh and blood. Those two clubs have basically have shown how flawed the concept of a big group of talent is most of the high end are used to be the stars… and its probable that they eventually look elsewhere.

In comparison to suns etc .. Richmond might be able to hold their drafted talent , it sounds great to just be a guts and plunder the draft but the mega tank is no certainty to work… as a good list build is a blend of types.

If you have a big draft hand you just end up making non optimal decisions.

If you have 8 draft picks in the top 20 or whatever it is you are just never going to pick 8 midfielders for instance, even if that would be the best haul of young players available at your pick.

You are going to get cute and take the two best midfielders and then look at the best tall. The best tall busts and the third best midfielder becomes Joel Selwood.

End of the day they get one shot at it. If it ends up a poor draft in hindsight or they pick the wrong players, they end up the same as everyone else i.e only 2 picks in the top 40 in the draft. You can't bring the required volume of players in through the draft now to rebuild through the draft like that.

 

[iameviljez]

If you have a big draft hand you just end up making non optimal decisions.

If you have 8 draft picks in the top 20 or whatever it is you are just never going to pick 8 midfielders for instance, even if that would be the best haul of young players available at your pick.

You are going to get cute and take the two best midfielders and then look at the best tall. The best tall busts and the third best midfielder becomes Joel Selwood.

End of the day they get one shot at it. If it ends up a poor draft in hindsight or they pick the wrong players, they end up the same as everyone else i.e only 2 picks in the top 40 in the draft. You can't bring the required volume of players in through the draft now to rebuild through the draft like that.

There are plenty of teams that have nailed big draft hands - us (twice), Hawthorn, Dogs…

 

[Pure_Ownage]

R

Richmond have 10 players on their list who have played 10 games or less. And they are about to add ~7 more to their list.

Unless you are avid watcher of their VFL team your opinion of them is an uneducated guess at best.

Without being rude I watch a lot of their vfl team hence why I've rated Davidson so much this year and el nour previously. So I think I have a handle on their vfl and afl lists.
Regardless my critique wasn't purely the sub game players (the 1st and 2nd year guys if you will) it's the ones in the 30-80 game bracket. When you are rebuilding like Richmond these are the core of your next flag side (as the 150 + gamers will be retired or in the twilight by when they contend again).
Even as a side with a skewed age distribution like ours in that bracket we have guys like bruhn, Ollie h, Holmes and sdk (and had guys like j Henry and miers in it until a year or so ago).
And that's just us some other clubs have a much better talent base in that age bracket than us.
In the same bracket Richmond only have
Ralphsmith
Ross
M Rioli
Kosi
Dow
Mansell
Miller

There's not a single potential A grader on that lot and most of them would have already been delisted at a better side and won't be on a list in 3 years.

So even if Richmond have some decent sub 30 game players (and I would argue they need a lot more than they have which is why this draft is critical) the next rung of talent above them to support them while they develop is not there. Their list has a long long rebuild ahead unless they can trade in some quality middle aged players which I doubt they can.

 

[iameviljez]

(Richmond, richmond, richmond)

There's not a single potential A grader on that lot and most of them would have already been delisted at a better side and won't be on a list in 3 years.

So even if Richmond have some decent sub 30 game players (and I would argue they need a lot more than they have which is why this draft is critical) the next rung of talent above them to support them while they develop is not there. Their list has a long long rebuild ahead unless they can trade in some quality middle aged players which I doubt they can.

I'm not saying you're wrong - far from it, in fact - but I'm always cautioned on "going too early" on team prospects by a game I went to in Round 2, 2004.

We played against Carlton - who were probably the worst side in it in 2003, and had topped up with a load a cast-offs, including David Clarke - and got absolutely smacked at Princes Park. It was just an abjectly terrible day where not a single player really fired a shot, and got belted by The Replacements, after an abjectly crap year in 2003.

Dad and I went home saying that we were going nowhere, we were a collection of incredibly ordinary footballers, and lacked the star power to come close to September.

That team contained two future premiership captains, two Norm Smith medallists, a Brownlow medallist, and 11 premiership players (including 6 who would play in three flags).

 

[Turbocat]

Without being rude I watch a lot of their vfl team hence why I've rated Davidson so much this year and el nour previously. So I think I have a handle on their vfl and afl lists.
Regardless my critique wasn't purely the sub game players (the 1st and 2nd year guys if you will) it's the ones in the 30-80 game bracket. When you are rebuilding like Richmond these are the core of your next flag side (as the 150 + gamers will be retired or in the twilight by when they contend again).
Even as a side with a skewed age distribution like ours in that bracket we have guys like bruhn, Ollie h, Holmes and sdk (and had guys like j Henry and miers in it until a year or so ago).
And that's just us some other clubs have a much better talent base in that age bracket than us.
In the same bracket Richmond only have
Ralphsmith
Ross
M Rioli
Kosi
Dow
Mansell
Miller

There's not a single potential A grader on that lot and most of them would have already been delisted at a better side and won't be on a list in 3 years.

So even if Richmond have some decent sub 30 game players (and I would argue they need a lot more than they have which is why this draft is critical) the next rung of talent above them to support them while they develop is not there. Their list has a long long rebuild ahead unless they can trade in some quality middle aged players which I doubt they can.

Could do Davidson transition into another role… he did a good 2K time.

 

[Turbocat]

If you have a big draft hand you just end up making non optimal decisions.

If you have 8 draft picks in the top 20 or whatever it is you are just never going to pick 8 midfielders for instance, even if that would be the best haul of young players available at your pick.

You are going to get cute and take the two best midfielders and then look at the best tall. The best tall busts and the third best midfielder becomes Joel Selwood.

End of the day they get one shot at it. If it ends up a poor draft in hindsight or they pick the wrong players, they end up the same as everyone else i.e only 2 picks in the top 40 in the draft. You can't bring the required volume of players in through the draft now to rebuild through the draft like that.

I think thats hard to do…. they may end up being poor AFL players but at the time… I doubt many clubs would pick much different to the way the top20 or so spill out…. of course we never know for sure…. Maybe someone like Wells would take someone that he likes early

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Could do Davidson transition into another role… he did a good 2K time.

I'd like him to develop as a partner to Dempsey on the wing personally.

Would give us two hard running wingman with a bit of height, and allow Smith & Holmes to play in the guts or on the flanks full time.

I do rate Davidson and hope we can potentially trade back in to get him (amongst others) but it's just such a log jam at his natural position for us.

We've already got hard running forwards who roll up to the stoppage in Close, Mannagh, & Miers, to go with more traditional types in Stengle, O Henry, and now Martin.

There's probably not a spot for him if he's played in his typical role, but I do wonder if the club believes they can develop him elsewhere if we are to pick him.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I'm not saying you're wrong - far from it, in fact - but I'm always cautioned on "going too early" on team prospects by a game I went to in Round 2, 2004.

We played against Carlton - who were probably the worst side in it in 2003, and had topped up with a load a cast-offs, including David Clarke - and got absolutely smacked at Princes Park. It was just an abjectly terrible day where not a single player really fired a shot, and got belted by The Replacements, after an abjectly crap year in 2003.

Dad and I went home saying that we were going nowhere, we were a collection of incredibly ordinary footballers, and lacked the star power to come close to September.

That team contained two future premiership captains, two Norm Smith medallists, a Brownlow medallist, and 11 premiership players (including 6 who would play in three flags).

That was a remarkable day. We were completely destroyed by injury. Take a look at the team we put out there.

AFL Tables - Carlton v Geelong - Sun, 4-Apr-2004 2:10 PM - Match Stats

Not a single player with 100 games under their belt and an average age of 22 years and 171 days! 25 year old Tom Harley was our oldest player.

To put that in perspective we were a younger team than Gold Coast were in their first ever game.

You never see a team come close to that level of inexperience these days.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

You must have been looking at those early days of Enright, Corey, etc with much more optimistic eyes than me, because at the title they liked look good average players to me. We all know what they became, but early days they had warts like all young players. James Kelly was the only one who looked like a star from day 1, and his broken leg took the shine off his star for a while.

Ironically he was the one who ended up doing all the dirty jobs and was the unsung hero of the group.

Interesting you should say that Hinkley29: coz I had a good friend who was having a chat with someone within the Carlton FC ranks and they were curious to know if there was an undeveloped player or two around the traps that they thought could be worth having a look at. And as it so happens this good friend has a good opinion of my judgement when it comes to a footballer, and I told him straight out that we had a bloke playing in the reserves who was going to be a top class player once he got an opportunity and that was Enright. I say the same about Connor O'Sullivan now, the kid going to be a gun not that others aren't aware of anyway but at Catland presently we've been blessed with a number of highly talented young players of which I've already commented on in previous posts..... GO CATS

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I'm not saying you're wrong - far from it, in fact - but I'm always cautioned on "going too early" on team prospects by a game I went to in Round 2, 2004.

We played against Carlton - who were probably the worst side in it in 2003, and had topped up with a load a cast-offs, including David Clarke - and got absolutely smacked at Princes Park. It was just an abjectly terrible day where not a single player really fired a shot, and got belted by The Replacements, after an abjectly crap year in 2003.

Dad and I went home saying that we were going nowhere, we were a collection of incredibly ordinary footballers, and lacked the star power to come close to September.

That team contained two future premiership captains, two Norm Smith medallists, a Brownlow medallist, and 11 premiership players (including 6 who would play in three flags).

Broadly I agree with your point about not judging players too early.
But let's be real. Some of these guys like ralphsmith and Dow have enough of a body of work to show how many flaws they have and barring a massive turnaround are not afl standard.
Someone like Miller is a late pick. Delisted and relisted and has only been D grade (and that's generous). He's only on a list because of how bad their tall stocks are that they have no one else. And said tall stocks are so bad that they traded kosi in (it was obvious at hawthorn how bad he was) and he gets dropped from a wooden spoon team when lynch is gone for the year. These are the guys I'm talking about they are not underdeveloped kids that need time they are mid 20s list cloggers that are crap yet this is the core Richmond has moving forward. They have a lot of rebuilding to do.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Could do Davidson transition into another role… he did a good 2K time.

He did didn't he. I wouldn't be surprised to see essendon take him given how they took Durham from Richmond. But I reckon other clubs will be keen too. Richmond would be mad not to take him but they don't have late picks unless they trade live. I'd like us to look at both him and henderson.

 

[Footy Smarts]

You must have been looking at those early days of Enright, Corey, etc with much more optimistic eyes than me, because at the title they liked look good average players to me. We all know what they became, but early days they had warts like all young players. James Kelly was the only one who looked like a star from day 1, and his broken leg took the shine off his star for a while.

Ironically he was the one who ended up doing all the dirty jobs and was the unsung hero of the group.

Players don't have to look like a star from day 1. You shouldn't read much into the first 2 seasons.

But by year 3 you really want to be seeing improvement especially from the smalls.

If you look at our gun 1999 draft Corey, Chapman and Ling all made the top 10 of the B&F in their 3rd seasons (2002). Enright likely would have but missed a chunk of the season with injury and finished top 5 the next year.

The 2001 draft is a similar story. Ablett finished 4th in his second season. Bartel finished 7th in his 3rd season. Kelly looked a star before getting injured in his 3rd season.

SJ had too many injuries to finish high up in the B&F but kicked 2 bags of 4 in his first season in the list and a bag of 6 in his second.

All of them had shown a tonne by the end of their 3rd season.

So there's no issue for guys like Seth Campbell, Kane McAuliffe or Jhye Clark. They could still be excellent players.

But there have to be huge question marks over guys with 3+ seasons under their belt who've struggled to hold their spot or be any more than fringe players in a bad team. Realistically guys like Knevitt, Banks, Brown, Sonsie, Dow, Ralphsmith, Rioli, Mansell, Trezise, Bauer, etc would be defying the odds big time to develop into more than role players.

 

[Hinkley29]

Without being rude I watch a lot of their vfl team hence why I've rated Davidson so much this year and el nour previously. So I think I have a handle on their vfl and afl lists.
Regardless my critique wasn't purely the sub game players (the 1st and 2nd year guys if you will) it's the ones in the 30-80 game bracket. When you are rebuilding like Richmond these are the core of your next flag side (as the 150 + gamers will be retired or in the twilight by when they contend again).
Even as a side with a skewed age distribution like ours in that bracket we have guys like bruhn, Ollie h, Holmes and sdk (and had guys like j Henry and miers in it until a year or so ago).
And that's just us some other clubs have a much better talent base in that age bracket than us.
In the same bracket Richmond only have
Ralphsmith
Ross
M Rioli
Kosi
Dow
Mansell
Miller

There's not a single potential A grader on that lot and most of them would have already been delisted at a better side and won't be on a list in 3 years.

So even if Richmond have some decent sub 30 game players (and I would argue they need a lot more than they have which is why this draft is critical) the next rung of talent above them to support them while they develop is not there. Their list has a long long rebuild ahead unless they can trade in some quality middle aged players which I doubt they can.

I don’t know if it is impressive or a little sad that you have watched so much of the Richmond vfl side.

I do admire your dedication to the craft.

 

[Hinkley29]

Interesting you should say that Hinkley29: coz I had a good friend who was having a chat with someone within the Carlton FC ranks and they were curious to know if there was an undeveloped player or two around the traps that they thought could be worth having a look at. And as it so happens this good friend has a good opinion of my judgement when it comes to a footballer, and I told him straight out that we had a bloke playing in the reserves who was going to be a top class player once he got an opportunity and that was Enright. I say the same about Connor O'Sullivan now, the kid going to be a gun not that others aren't aware of anyway but at Catland presently we've been blessed with a number of highly talented young players of which I've already commented on in previous posts..... GO CATS

This post is way funnier if you read it in a Ron Burgundy voice.

I kept waiting for you to tell me that you had many leather bound books and your apartment smells of rich mahogany.