Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[Cleansweep17]

Clubs are meant to win a flag every 18 years on average. It’s a long time. You can do 2 solid rebuilds in that time. It’s on the club if they stuff them up.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Clubs are meant to win a flag every 18 years on average. It’s a long time. You can do 2 solid rebuilds in that time. It’s on the club if they stuff them up.

It’s not just about flags though, clubs should expect to play finals 5 years out of every 10, the clubs that hit rock bottom are just so far away from that, combine that with clubs like Saints, Essendon, Freo who end up in no man’s land floating between 12th and 6th but never really being a chance at success. The system is just a little bit off, and it appears the key to being a genuine premiership team is simply having luck with father sons.

 

[Cleansweep17]

It’s not just about flags though, clubs should expect to play finals 5 years out of every 10, the clubs that hit rock bottom are just so far away from that, combine that with clubs like Saints, Essendon, Freo who end up in no man’s land floating between 12th and 6th but never really being a chance at success. The system is just a little bit off, and it appears the key to being a genuine premiership team is simply having luck with father sons.

We didn’t do it with f/s (of note anyway) and came back from being broke. It can be done.

Lions were contending for years without Ashcroft.

Daicos came into a team that already made prelims and GF a few years before.

If these two guys were f/s to North Melbourne nobody would care.

 

[M Malice]

Lol.

Brisbane began rebuilding well before 2019; 12th in 2013, 15th in 2014, 17th in 2015, 17th in 2016, 18th in 2017, 15th in 2018. Projecting their improvement over the five seasons between 2019-2024 is the kind of analysis that keeps people away from the main board.

Chris Fagan was appointed a few weeks before the 2016 draft when we were at our absolute lowest point on and off field following multiple years of irrelevance, 2017-18 he turned the place around, the man needs a statue outside the Gabba.

The bulk of our flag side came to the Lions post Fagan and co being appointed.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Just 7 years until they can be 1-3 after round 4 premiers.

 

[Gethelred]

Chris Fagan was appointed a few weeks before the 2016 draft when we were at our absolute lowest point on and off field following multiple years of irrelevance, 2017-18 he turned the place around, the man needs a statue outside the Gabba.

The bulk of our flag side came to the Lions post Fagan and co being appointed.

I don't disagree.

That puts your rebuild at the nine year mark, rather than the five years used to attack Carlton and Essendon with.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

We didn’t do it with f/s (of note anyway) and came back from being broke. It can be done.

Lions were contending for years without Ashcroft.

Daicos came into a team that already made prelims and GF a few years before.

If these two guys were f/s to North Melbourne nobody would care.

Richmond probably a rightful exception to the rule,

Collingwood had Nick & Josh Daicos and Darcy Moore
Brisbane - Norm smith medalist and will get #1 pick

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Media are media they will drum up stories to keep the click count ticking over, it’s usually a long way from reality.

West Coast, North & Richmond should be using the PSD to their advantage there is no way they should be wasting draft picks on uncontracted players when they are available on a bosman.

The most important thing about finishing last is you have first choice in the PSD. Richmond are now finding clubs can’t screw them over trying to get a player for less than what they think is reasonable.

 

[Freomaniac]

Sure - I guess the question is whether that price is disproportionately high.

The idea of priority picks in the past was that if you had teams who were down the bottom for long enough, they'd get more bites of the cherry at the draft. The implementation of this was flawed, as it appeared to incentivise tanking, but the objective wasn't bad.

Are you enjoying the eagles current rebuild?

 

[Freomaniac]

Freo? 7 finals wins in 30 years yeah? Jog on.

Good point. 3 preliminary finals in from 1995 to 2024 (2006, 2013 and 2015).

7 finals wins in 30 seasons. Only made sustained finals or finals for 2 years in a row only once. That was on the Ross Lyon era of 2012 to 2015.

I would of traded our round 22, 2014 won vs Port for round 22, 2005. That means back to back finals in 2005-6.

I would even trade home win vs Essendon in 2017 or 2018, if that means beating them at Docklands in 2021. That means we take Essendons 8th spot and back to back finals in 2021 and 2022.

Meanwhile Port under Ken Hinkley from 2013 to 2024 have won 6 finals, made 4 preliminary finals.

Made sustained finals in 2013-14, 2020-21 and 2023-24. Yet Port Adelaide fans are still not happy. LoL


Time to listen to that classic song piano in the dark.

 

[Obeanie1]

Clubs are meant to win a flag every 18 years on average. It’s a long time. You can do 2 solid rebuilds in that time. It’s on the club if they stuff them up.

The AFL want the expansion teams playing finals to grow the game and TV rights.

That is why they get additional access to top accademy players olus father son and free agency access.

Totally throws out the everyone is equal and one win every 18 year theory.

 

[tiger_tough]

No, it just usually takes club too long to identify that a rebuild is required and then fully commit to it.

 

[Freomaniac]

The AFL want the expansion teams playing finals to grow the game and TV rights.

That is why they get additional access to top accademy players olus father son and free agency access.

Totally throws out the everyone is equal and one win every 18 year theory.

True....

A Victorian side winning the flag isnt adding new Victorian casual fans.

A victorian side that plays Home games at the MCG Such as Richmond and Essendon isnt gonna do much except for those sides filling the MCG. AFL has Victoria covered.

Docklands tenants like North Melbourne or Western Bulldogs wont do much either. Yeah they could get the bandwagon to fill out that 55,000 seat docklands.

AFL was happy with the 2024 AFL grand final. Brisbane wins the flag then AFL will try and Convert as much as the 5 million that live in Queensland.

If Sydney wins the flag, AFL will try and convert as much as the NSW fans that has a populaton of 8 million.

 

[Freomaniac]

If it really is a 6-7 year process, and melbourne may have been a faster rebuild than most.

Roos handing over to Goodwin at the time may have helped, but what if its a current coach whos been there 2-4 years already?
Even then Goody seems to be the only coach to survive? How does the club keep everyone on message if deliberately not prioritising a winning culture?


current melbourne coaches;
Head coach

• Simon Goodwin

Assistant coaches

• Alan Richardson (GM of AFL football performance)
• Adem Yze (midfield)
• Troy Chaplin (defence)
• Greg Stafford (forwards)
• Mark Williams (head of development)

2016 melbourne coaches
Head coach

• Paul Roos

Assistant coaches

• Simon Goodwin (senior assistant)
• Brendan McCartney (development and strategy)
• Ben Mathews (stoppages)
• Jade Rawlings (defence)
• Greg Stafford (ruck)
• Daniel McPherson (senior development)
• Brett Allison (head of development)
• Shannon Byrnes (welfare and development)
• Daniel Cross (rehab and development)

Not a bad line up of Assistant coaches the demons had in 2021.

 

[Freomaniac]

Do you rate the North years under Scott ? Do you regard the rebuild as starting under Shaw?

I will look back at Brad Scott and his coaching era at North from 2010 to 2019 as a solid run.

North Melbourne had that very good 2014-16 finals run.

 

[Freomaniac]

Does Melbourne winning a flag make a case either way? I don't buy the argument that they turned it around quickly, despite finishing 17th in 2019. The list build took several years. But it also shows it can be done if you draft well.

So going by that view... eagles were 17th in 2022. So flag in 2024 then.

 

[Obeanie1]

No, it just usually takes club too long to identify that a rebuild is required and then fully commit to it.

Like trading in Taranto and Hopper when they should have hit the draft?

Tigers are only just now fully commiting because 4 players decided to leave and force their hand.

Lets see how long this takes them with no AFL handouts or luck dips with father sons.

Collingwood have made the call that the draft is broken. They and Geelong dont rebuild. They tap into trades and free agency to avaoid rebuilding. Some clubs can do that. Others dont have the same access to the players teade market.

 

[tiger_tough]

Like trading in Taranto and Hopper when they should have hit the draft?

Tigers are only just now fully commiting because 4 players decided to leave and force their hand.

Lets see how long this takes them with no AFL handouts or luck dips with father sons.

Collingwood have made the call that the draft is broken. They and Geelong dont rebuild. They tap into trades and free agency to avaoid rebuilding. Some clubs can do that. Others dont have the same access to the players teade market.

Yes, exactly like that

Nah, we were full rebuild mode either way this year, those guys leaving have just sped up the process by about 2-3 years (Unlike the Eagles who still have **** all picks). We also could've denied Bolton and Rioli their trade request as Dees did with Petracca and Oliver. Time will tell if that was the correct decision.

Pies haven't made the call that the draft is broken. They're just going all out for another flag before the wheels fall off, like we did. I think they'll suffer the same fate.

 

[King Patty]

In Essendons case yes, but have they ever done a rebuild?

 

[nineteen eighty]

Like trading in Taranto and Hopper when they should have hit the draft?

Tigers are only just now fully commiting because 4 players decided to leave and force their hand.

Lets see how long this takes them with no AFL handouts or luck dips with father sons.

Collingwood have made the call that the draft is broken. They and Geelong dont rebuild. They tap into trades and free agency to avaoid rebuilding. Some clubs can do that. Others dont have the same access to the players teade market.

What is forgotten around Taranto and Hopper is that if you take a 2 year view to the draft around 2022 (when they came on board), we drafted 5 kids the year before (2021) that may come good (or may not). Gibcus for mine is a standout but can't get on the park. Tom Brown looks very promising. The others I'm not sure about. So it was 5 kids and 2 mature bodies over that 2 year stretch. 2023 was impacted...I concede that.