Opinion Did Taranto and Hopper make a mistake leaving the Giants for Richmond?

[KissKiss]

You could've saved the detailed rant and just read my post properly.

I said Balta is the only proven good player on your list who will be under 30 come 2028.

Of course some others will make it in some way.

But in 2028 your current list will be:

1) whichever of the current young fringe and VFL types make it
2) a bunch of talented kids in only their 4th year (21-22 years old).
3) Balta
4) Taranto (30), Hopper (31), Short (32)

You compared that to Hawthorn this year who had Sicily, Impey, Amon, Hardwick, Meek, Nash, Scrimshaw, Morrison, Worpel, Moore, Day and Newcombe all in the 23-29 age range. It's a completely different demographic.

That's a pretty good point in that having a big gap in the age profile has tripped a few teams up over the journey. At this stage that age group looks super thin for the Tigers. I suspect if they are looking to rise up in 2028 after 2-3 years hitting the draft hard, they will need to look at some serious FA or trade targets. Both to even out the age profile but also seeing where the gaps in the list are.

 

[Grrr]

That's a pretty good point in that having a big gap in the age profile has tripped a few teams up over the journey. At this stage that age group looks super thin for the Tigers. I suspect if they are looking to rise up in 2028 after 2-3 years hitting the draft hard, they will need to look at some serious FA or trade targets. Both to even out the age profile but also seeing where the gaps in the list are.

There are some others that could be added to that profile, but Footy Smarts rates none of them, so it's not quite that drastic, but the point is made that our middle tear is thin. We just lost 5 of them.

You can't hit the draft much harder than Richmond have done, 8 under 30 this year, pic 1 (most likely) and North's first.
So that will be 10, of which you should get 6-7 good ones. As you say a few add on's from other clubs and a bit of luck with injury and who knows. If we got the usual 2 or 3 players instead of 8, and the two from next season, I would be feeling far more pessimistic.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I have been circumspect with naming players who I feel will be good players this season, but have mentioned that quite a few of them are tracking nicely. But again, you know our list better than any one so I will defer to you from now on.

I just don't think I know your list better than the coaches like you seem to think you do.

It's pretty simple. Don't talk up guys who can't hold their place in the AFL just cause they showed a glimpse of talent. Definitely don't compare them to guys like Petracca and Ablett like you have regularly. There's normally a reason players are dropped to the VFL. Or take it to the Richmond board where you can circle jerk together if you don't want your views laughed at.

I can find AFL highlights of Mitch Knevitt that look great. The chance he's the next gun player given he couldn't hold his spot in his 3rd year is virtually zero. Same with Jhye Clark if he can't nail a spot down this year.

Perhaps before you decide to announce the next Sonsie, Dow, RCD, etc as guns ask yourself.

1) Are they holding their spot in the team consistently?
2) Have they produced at least one really dominant game to receive coaches votes or maybe a rising star nomination.

At least then you shouldn't be getting miles ahead of yourself. For the record 25 year old Noah Balta was that youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond last year and nobody received a rising star nomination.

On the bright side at least a couple of your draftees this year should do that. And if Seth Campbell takes another step up (I'm a fan) I'd expect him to do the same since he at least held his spot last year. Then you might have something to crow about without resorting to pumping up VFL players.

 

[sydney_gws]

And you are under rating. Fisher equals Vlastuin, just goes to show how under rated he and Broad are. Balta and Mcdonald?

Prestia is the only one on the list that may be nearly washed up but he just came 5th in the 2km, so maybe he is due some luck. Nothing like Zurhaar, and Zurhaar will never be near as good as Prestia was, but he is only another injury away.

Lynch is due some luck but Larkey is a very good player, and Xerri is better than Nank, but Xerri was near AA last season.

Taranto and Hopper are not as good as LDU and Simpkin. The thing is North are on the rebuild and nobody would be surprised to see them jump up the ladder. But how long has it taken.

A year or two ago, WC were recruiting WAFL players mainly due to injury, much like Richmond last year.

Neither of those sides have had the luxury of adding 8 highly rated draftee's in one year, with another 2 top 1-6 next year. We might stall down the bottom for another year or two, but the rebound may come quicker than the 5-10 years that has been mentioned on here.

I am ( no offence) not a tigers fan, but I think you guys rebound quickly, assuming at least 3 of your 4 top 14 picks and the 2 next year end up as good players/ not injury prone.
If I was a free agent ( hopefully a flag winning gws player) in 2026 I would consider going to a tigers team that wins say 3,6 games in 2025/26.

 

[Grrr]

I just don't think I know your list better than the coaches like you seem to think you do.

It's pretty simple. Don't talk up guys who can't hold their place in the AFL just cause they showed a glimpse of talent. Definitely don't compare them to guys like Petracca and Ablett like you have regularly. There's normally a reason players are dropped to the VFL. Or take it to the Richmond board where you can circle jerk together if you don't want your views laughed at.

I can find AFL highlights of Mitch Knevitt that look great. The chance he's the next gun player given he couldn't hold his spot in his 3rd year is virtually zero. Same with Jhye Clark if he can't nail a spot down this year.

Perhaps before you decide to announce the next Sonsie, Dow, RCD, etc as guns ask yourself.

1) Are they holding their spot in the team consistently?
2) Have they produced at least one really dominant game to receive coaches votes or maybe a rising star nomination.

At least then you shouldn't be getting miles ahead of yourself. For the record 25 year old Noah Balta was that youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond last year and nobody received a rising star nomination.

On the bright side at least a couple of your draftees this year should do that. And if Seth Campbell takes another step up (I'm a fan) I'd expect him to do the same since he at least held his spot last year. Then you might have something to crow about without resorting to pumping up VFL players.

Fair enough in some respects. But we all do it, and RCD was 6 years ago, Dow and Cumberland 5. I bet if you go back through your draftee's you'll be able to find examples of players that did well and you got excited about before before dripping off.

Glad you are a fan of Campbell, but players who are holding their spots in the team such as Ross who was back in the middle before injury got him. Ralphsmith had very good on the wing. Mansell is turning into a player. Miller held down full back all year, as did Young before his injury. Plenty of others showed enough, but are going into their second year Brown, Campbell, Banks, Trezise, Mcauliffe showed plenty, Gibcus before injury, Green, Bauer, Clarke injured. Of course all won't make it, but some are playing each week and improving. I am not pumping up VFL players, all of them have talent, it just some take longer than others, plenty have been injured.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Really, Norths top 10 picks of the last few years have been impressive from the get go.

Harry Sheezel is a gun, in his first 2 seasons he averages 28 possessions per game.
Wardlaw looked like a gun about to really go
Colby McKercher in his first season was a gun and averaged 23 disposals.
Jason Horne Francis, gun.

And they are not alone, plenty of 10 ten picks are guns by their second and third years.

North have taken so long because their kids had so little support. They did not have established players like Taranto and Hopper, much less Prestia, Lynch, Nankervis, Vlastuin, Broad, Balta and a few others Premiership players.

Add Gibcus to the list of top 10 draftees coming back, he is due some luck and played 18 games in his first year.

If injuries don't scuttle us, we might snag some wins.

North have 4 top 25 draft picks playing for them righ now. Richmond will have 10 top 25 draft picks, this year and next, 4 of them top 6 or so, there is room for a quicker than normal turnaround.

Exactly, none of Richmond's players are at this level.

 

[Blackhawk42]

The 2021 draft was the forgotten chance for Richmond's rebuild.

They held picks 9, 17, 28, 29 and 30.

That haul resulted in Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Judson Clarke, Tyler Sonise and Sam Banks.

Nasiah Wanganeen Milera was taken not long after Gibcus.
Kai Lohman and Jacob Van Rooyen almost immediately after Brown, as well as Connor Macdonald a few picks after that.

Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo were taken just after that final trifecta of players.

Imagining this rebuilding Richmond side with NWM, Kai Lohman, Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo suddenly changes the potential success timeline IMO.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I just don't think I know your list better than the coaches like you seem to think you do.

It's pretty simple. Don't talk up guys who can't hold their place in the AFL just cause they showed a glimpse of talent. Definitely don't compare them to guys like Petracca and Ablett like you have regularly. There's normally a reason players are dropped to the VFL. Or take it to the Richmond board where you can circle jerk together if you don't want your views laughed at.

I can find AFL highlights of Mitch Knevitt that look great. The chance he's the next gun player given he couldn't hold his spot in his 3rd year is virtually zero. Same with Jhye Clark if he can't nail a spot down this year.

Perhaps before you decide to announce the next Sonsie, Dow, RCD, etc as guns ask yourself.

1) Are they holding their spot in the team consistently?
2) Have they produced at least one really dominant game to receive coaches votes or maybe a rising star nomination.

At least then you shouldn't be getting miles ahead of yourself. For the record 25 year old Noah Balta was that youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond last year and nobody received a rising star nomination.

On the bright side at least a couple of your draftees this year should do that. And if Seth Campbell takes another step up (I'm a fan) I'd expect him to do the same since he at least held his spot last year. Then you might have something to crow about without resorting to pumping up VFL players.

Your post is poorly thought out.

Of course Richmond(and every other team) should have cause for optimism that some of their 1-4 year players will become very good players, regardless of whether they have displayed eye-catching form so far or not.

You mention coaches votes and & whether the player held a spot in the AFL team. I am sure we could equally do this exercise with any premiership team of the last 20 odd years. But Richmond's dynasty team had the following players and this is their games played and coaches votes 4 years out from their draft age year:

Houli - 26 games, 8 coaches votes
Grimes - 26 games, 9 coaches votes
Lambert - 0 games, 0 coaches votes
Astbury - 29 games, 0 coaches votes
Edwards - 69 games, 9 coaches votes
Vlastuin - 80 games, 32 coaches votes
Broad - 0 games, 0 coaches votes
B Ellis - 88 games, 121 coaches votes
McIntosh - 29 games, 10 coaches votes
Cotchin - 64 games, 98 coaches votes
Caddy - 58 games, 12 coaches votes
Nankervis - 12 games, 0 coaches votes
Castagna - 52 games, 15 coaches votes
Butler - 38 games, 3 coaches votes
D Rioli - 82 games, 16 coaches votes
Riewoldt - 68 games, 67 coaches votes
Rance - 44 games, 10 coaches votes
Dusty - 86 games, 134 coaches votes
Bolton - 47 games, 52 coaches votes
Baker - 42 games, 12 coaches votes
Pickett - 0 games, 0 coaches votes
Grigg - 43 games, 13 coaches votes
Prestia - 73 games, 108 coaches votes
Balta - 44 games, 26 coaches votes
Graham - 55 games, 23 coaches votes
Soldo - 8 games, 0 coaches votes
Townsend - 28 games, 0 coaches votes
Short - 56 games, 3 coaches votes
Lynch - 60 games, 59 coaches votes

I have bolded 16 players there you would have been saying shouldn't be mentioned as prospective players to make it because they either didn't hold down a consistent place in the team or didn't get many coaches votes in their first 4 seasons out of their draft year. Amongst those, there are some incredibly strong players, Rance, Grimes, Houli, Edwards, Nankervis, Short, Baker, Lambert, Astbury, Broad. All of those have either played in 3 flags, been AA, won a B & F in a flag year, or been traded for a rd 1 pick.

Conversely, a player like Brandon Ellis had played more games and received more coaches votes than say Max Holmes over his first 4 years on the list. In fact Ellis had more CV's than Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt. Ellis had a good career but returned us only band 3 compo & Richmond clearly valued many other players more highly.

Every team has 1-4 year players on their list who are sleepers like most of these guys were. But many of these type of players show some glimpses early before they are fully established, & Richmond's current list clearly has players like that.

Sonsie, Gibcus, Rioli Jr, Ross, Mansell all under 25 now have all shown patches of decent form. Loads of others have shown encouraging signs. Few of these are likely to be AA level players, but you don't have to be that to be a really good or successful player, as the above list shows. And the club has just added essentially 7 rd 1 picks with at least 3 more very high picks to come over the next 2 seasons which in all probability will sort out the lack of very high end young talent.

It would be a lot sillier to expect Richmond doesn't have a critical mass of likely B grade talent already on its list than it would be to expect it has. They just haven't fully revealed themselves yet.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The 2021 draft was the forgotten chance for Richmond's rebuild.

They held picks 9, 17, 28, 29 and 30.

That haul resulted in Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Judson Clarke, Tyler Sonise and Sam Banks.

Nasiah Wanganeen Milera was taken not long after Gibcus.
Kai Lohman and Jacob Van Rooyen almost immediately after Brown, as well as Connor Macdonald a few picks after that.

Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo were taken just after that final trifecta of players.

Imagining this rebuilding Richmond side with NWM, Kai Lohman, Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo suddenly changes the potential success timeline IMO.

I think you want to hold your judgement on some of the 5 players the Tigers drafted in 2021. 2 have done ACL's. Banks looked to be establishing himself late in 2024. Tom Brown was going well enough for a pick 17 before shoulder injuries slowed him late 2024. Sonsie is currently looking a bit below par but even he has shown some promise, including an encouraging final in his first year. I am confident we should get 3 good players from this group, which is at least parity for those picks.

 

[tiger_tough]

The 2021 draft was the forgotten chance for Richmond's rebuild.

They held picks 9, 17, 28, 29 and 30.

That haul resulted in Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Judson Clarke, Tyler Sonise and Sam Banks.

Nasiah Wanganeen Milera was taken not long after Gibcus.
Kai Lohman and Jacob Van Rooyen almost immediately after Brown, as well as Connor Macdonald a few picks after that.

Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo were taken just after that final trifecta of players.

Imagining this rebuilding Richmond side with NWM, Kai Lohman, Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo suddenly changes the potential success timeline IMO.

You could do that exercise for every club for nearly every single draft?

Gibcus looked like becoming a star in his first season and has barely got on the park since. Hopefully he is past the injury concerns

Tom Brown could be anything and has had his own injury troubles.

The other 3 have potential, as do most late 2nd round picks. We shall see.

 

[draft_enjoyer]

The 2021 draft was the forgotten chance for Richmond's rebuild.

They held picks 9, 17, 28, 29 and 30.

That haul resulted in Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Judson Clarke, Tyler Sonise and Sam Banks.

Nasiah Wanganeen Milera was taken not long after Gibcus.
Kai Lohman and Jacob Van Rooyen almost immediately after Brown, as well as Connor Macdonald a few picks after that.

Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo were taken just after that final trifecta of players.

Imagining this rebuilding Richmond side with NWM, Kai Lohman, Matt Roberts, Paul Curtis and Jake Soligo suddenly changes the potential success timeline IMO.

Three of those will make it and two still have question marks but have potential. What's the issue?

 

[Blackhawk42]

Three of those will make it and two still have question marks but have potential. What's the issue?

I wasn't completely writing off the players the Tigers selected.

You also can't plan for injuries.

All I'm suggesting is that the players the Tigers COULD have selected would have changed their immediate fortunes, at least in the minds of neutrals who are anticipating a win-less season and 5+ years of pain.

However, drafting is never so simple.

 

[Rich01]

I just don't think I know your list better than the coaches like you seem to think you do.

It's pretty simple. Don't talk up guys who can't hold their place in the AFL just cause they showed a glimpse of talent. Definitely don't compare them to guys like Petracca and Ablett like you have regularly. There's normally a reason players are dropped to the VFL. Or take it to the Richmond board where you can circle jerk together if you don't want your views laughed at.

I can find AFL highlights of Mitch Knevitt that look great. The chance he's the next gun player given he couldn't hold his spot in his 3rd year is virtually zero. Same with Jhye Clark if he can't nail a spot down this year.

Perhaps before you decide to announce the next Sonsie, Dow, RCD, etc as guns ask yourself.

1) Are they holding their spot in the team consistently?
2) Have they produced at least one really dominant game to receive coaches votes or maybe a rising star nomination.

At least then you shouldn't be getting miles ahead of yourself. For the record 25 year old Noah Balta was that youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond last year and nobody received a rising star nomination.

On the bright side at least a couple of your draftees this year should do that. And if Seth Campbell takes another step up (I'm a fan) I'd expect him to do the same since he at least held his spot last year. Then you might have something to crow about without resorting to pumping up VFL players.

Agree with you on Jhye Clarke. Looking like a second string mid at best unless there’s some sort of serious uptick in form line.

 

[Giant Pete]

Loving the positivity of the Tigers fans in here.

 

[Grrr]

I am ( no offence) not a tigers fan, but I think you guys rebound quickly, assuming at least 3 of your 4 top 14 picks and the 2 next year end up as good players/ not injury prone.
If I was a free agent ( hopefully a flag winning gws player) in 2026 I would consider going to a tigers team that wins say 3,6 games in 2025/26.

3 or 4 is rather conservative out of 14 when you consider how low they went, but you'd hope injury doesn't strike like it has to Gibcus. And if you are going to attract good players, you'd hope to attract good players like we did in 2016 and Geelong seem to do rather than players looking to get a gig in a lowly side.

 

[Grrr]

Exactly, none of Richmond's players are at this level.

No they are not, but in 2 years time with the talent we just drafted and the likely 1 and 1-6 picks next year, you'll like to think a few would. The point was, it doesn't take 5+ years for top level kids to make the grade, look what Harley Reid is doing (yes he is a bit special, but others have done it also).

 

[Do the Dew]

Exactly, none of Richmond's players are at this level.

No shit. We haven't had top picks for years due to success, something Carlton wouldn't understand.

Sheezel pick 3
Wardlaw pick 4
McKercher pick 2
Horne-Francis pick 1

 

[Big Animal]

Yes, but their financial planners disagree

 

[Philth]

Loving the positivity of the Tigers fans in here.

Thanks.
We've had 3 recent premierships and the only way is up from here.

Personally I get plenty of amusement from posters/footy journalists who say things like -

1. Dusty will play for GC in 2025 (he was never going to)
2. Richmond will not win a game in 2025.

So yeah, I'm pretty positive and happy with my club.

 

[adammania9]

Loving the positivity of the Tigers fans in here.

It's the best time of the year to show support. Won't be seeing many of them in 4 months

 

[Tasmanian saint]

You’re dreaming, have a look at North & West Coast for examples of how long it takes kids to be competitive against men. North have had some absolute gun pickups recently too.

5 years minimum for the Tigers, next year will be worse than 24.

The difference with north though is that Richmond are a massive club that play in front of big crowds regularly they won’t have the same issues that north have had trying to convince high level free agents to come which definitely helps to speed up the process

 

[Purple Suit]

The difference with north though is that Richmond are a massive club that play in front of big crowds regularly they won’t have the same issues that north have had trying to convince high level free agents to come which definitely helps to speed up the process

I agree that will help a bit but it's only likely to give them a few spots up the ladder. See Essendon & Carlton for those examples.

North have been a basket case but Richmond have won 2 games and then traded 3 of their top 10 players after that. It's almost the Melbourne scorched earth policy so it will be very interesting how they bounce back. Quick isn't going to be in the convo but if they are winning a flag in 8 years it's the right move.

 

[Rich01]

It's the best time of the year to show support. Won't be seeing many of them in 4 months

Why?
Some have said we won’t win a game so there’s no expectation at all.

And the development of the kids will be super exciting to watch.

 

[craffles]

Richmond and Hawthorns fans drop off massively when their sides are down. Maybe it’s the G factor as it’s such a large stadium but I don’t expect the crowds to be a driving force behind a surge up the ladder.

Time will tell with the kids, there’s no set rules on how quickly a list can develop but it will take a few at least.

 

[Grrr]

I agree that will help a bit but it's only likely to give them a few spots up the ladder. See Essendon & Carlton for those examples.

North have been a basket case but Richmond have won 2 games and then traded 3 of their top 10 players after that. It's almost the Melbourne scorched earth policy so it will be very interesting how they bounce back. Quick isn't going to be in the convo but if they are winning a flag in 8 years it's the right move.

We didn't trade out, they all wanted to leave. Contracted mostly, we made the best of it. And on another technicality, we 'traded out' our best 2 players, which doesn't often happen if ever. 8 years is not that long to win another flag by the way, they are not that easy to come by.