List Mgmt. COLLINGWOOD Trade and F/A Discussion 2023

[Fruit]

I think Schultz has quickly become overrated based simply on numbers. Yes, he's kicked 30 goals the last two years, but he is not an elite offensive small forward. He's a very good defensive small forward with the capacity to also win his own ball.

Two years of 30 goals and one year of 22 does not put him on the level of the best offensive smalls. Small forward offensive performance is very situational and subject to major fluctuation. Let's not forget that Ginnivan had a 40 goal season. So expectations on this side of his game should be tempered. He's a good kick and will get his goals, but he's not as dangerous, or likely to create goals from nowhere, as a Bobby Hill, Rankine, Papley, Cameron etc...

For us he's a good fit to replace Adams. That he is an elite pressure forward is the big selling point. Being able to rack up disposals further up the ground is also a big tick. The goals side of it is nice, but more of a bonus

Prior to this year Bobby Hill always averaged less than a goal a game each season and averaged more tackles than goals. A team of forwards with a defensive mindset ie tackling pressure can create more opportunities.

 

[sr36]

The one constant that is obvious atm is that the need for speed has never been so prevalent

You've just got to be able to run - either pace or outstanding endurance - ideally both.

Pace just closes down space to apply pressure defensively and opens up space to attack.Speed kills!

 

[3rdMan]

Prior to this year Bobby Hill always averaged less than a goal a game each season and averaged more tackles than goals. A team of forwards with a defensive mindset ie tackling pressure can create more opportunities.

True. But Hill always had the ability to create goals. The talent was there, he just wasn't getting them. Schultz is a bit the opposite, the goals are there but the level of offensive talent is not the same as with Hill or the top offensive small forwards. I mentioned Ginnivan scoring 40 goals, I'll also mention Josh Thomas, probably less offensively skilled than Ginnivan, but for a while put up goals at an elite rate (38 in 2018). The number of goals is not enough to say whether a small forward is elite offensively.

Again I think Schultz is a great get, but more for his elite pressure and ball winning ability, with goals third on the list. His balance between his pressure, ball winning and goal scoring for the last two years has certainly been very impressive.

 

[TakingThePies]

True. But Hill always had the ability to create goals. The talent was there, he just wasn't getting them. Schultz is a bit the opposite, the goals are there but the level of offensive talent is not the same as with Hill or the top offensive small forwards. I mentioned Ginnivan scoring 40 goals, I'll also mention Josh Thomas, probably less offensively skilled than Ginnivan, but for a while put up goals at an elite rate (38 in 2018). The number of goals is not enough to say whether a small forward is elite offensively.

Again I think Schultz is a great get, but more for his elite pressure and ball winning ability, with goals third on the list. His balance between his pressure, ball winning and goal scoring for the last two years has certainly been very impressive.

The forward line with McRae has never just relied on one forward to kick goals. Everyone works for each other to score.

His pressure, his ability to chain link up the ground is huge. He kicks enough goals to be a threat also. If he gets one, he normally kicks a couple more.

 

[Soups]

The forward line with McRae has never just relied on one forward to kick goals. Everyone works for each other to score.

His pressure, his ability to chain link up the ground is huge. He kicks enough goals to be a threat also. If he gets one, he normally kicks a couple more.

Probably the most truthful thing I’ve ever seen you write on here. Well done.

 

[stormskye]

2023 Schultz scored 20 (60%) of his 33 goals against non-8 sides:
6 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v GCS; 3 v Gee; 1 v Ess; 2 v WB; 2 v Adel

2022 Schultz scored 19 (63%) of his 30 goals against non-8 sides:
3 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v Adel; 2 v StK; 4 v Carl; 2 v PtA; 2 v GWS

Do this for curnow. I’d bet it’s the same or worse

 

[manicpie]

The forward line with McRae has never just relied on one forward to kick goals. Everyone works for each other to score.

His pressure, his ability to chain link up the ground is huge. He kicks enough goals to be a threat also. If he gets one, he normally kicks a couple more.

You forgot to mention that he's a very good mark also

 

[Jekyll and Hyde]

2023 Schultz scored 20 (60%) of his 33 goals against non-8 sides:
6 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v GCS; 3 v Gee; 1 v Ess; 2 v WB; 2 v Adel

2022 Schultz scored 19 (63%) of his 30 goals against non-8 sides:
3 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v Adel; 2 v StK; 4 v Carl; 2 v PtA; 2 v GWS

Such a dumb stat though. That's the whole league.
You generally score more against lower teams, that's called percentage on the ladder.

 

[partypie]

Wilson is Cat B

Rooks list:
Murley, AJ and Begg off rooks list = -3
Markov (from SSP to rooks), Kelly (from main to rooks) = +2

Main list:
Arlo, Ruscoe, Bianco, Adams, Kelly (likely main to rooks list) = -5
+Schultz, AJ & Begg (elevation from rooks) + pick 31 + pick 38 = +5

Begg and AJ will likely get another year on the rookie list if the proposed changes for MSD selections are brought in, bit it likely wont matter either way we'll just go in shorter on senior listed players.

 

[Jafo]

Absolute Furphy but say Eagles offer pick 1 for DeGoey & Allen or AJ or Future 1st would we take it?

Same Dogs for JUH but DeGoey and this year 1st.

Or both scenarios hard pass.

 

[Prexm]

Begg and AJ will likely get another year on the rookie list if the proposed changes for MSD selections are brought in, bit it likely wont matter either way we'll just go in shorter on senior listed players.

Probably depends on the picks we have. Currently 19 34 39. If 19 goes for Schultz and we make no further list changes , we likely will pass on the 3rd pick which is very late and instead elevate AJ anyway then leave a rookie spot. If Begg is kept and he had to go to senior list then we could just swap him with Richards.

 

[sr36]

2023 Schultz scored 20 (60%) of his 33 goals against non-8 sides:
6 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v GCS; 3 v Gee; 1 v Ess; 2 v WB; 2 v Adel

2022 Schultz scored 19 (63%) of his 30 goals against non-8 sides:
3 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v Adel; 2 v StK; 4 v Carl; 2 v PtA; 2 v GWS

Um. I just did a quick look and so may have gotten it wrong but they played 55% of their games against non top 8 sides and got smacked with low scores against ost too 8 sides, so the 2023 stats look good to me. Didn't look at 2022.

I'd be more interested in how he got his goals and score involvements. I'm hoping he crumbs well and is good with a set defence.

 

[LuckyLee]

2023 Schultz scored 20 (60%) of his 33 goals against non-8 sides:
6 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v GCS; 3 v Gee; 1 v Ess; 2 v WB; 2 v Adel

2022 Schultz scored 19 (63%) of his 30 goals against non-8 sides:
3 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v Adel; 2 v StK; 4 v Carl; 2 v PtA; 2 v GWS

So what?

Run the same numbers for Charlie Curnow. He scored 19 of his goals against West Coast and only three across his three finals appearances. Are you saying that you wouldn’t want Charlie Curnow in our side, too?


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[No SPIN]

2023 Schultz scored 20 (60%) of his 33 goals against non-8 sides:
6 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v GCS; 3 v Gee; 1 v Ess; 2 v WB; 2 v Adel

2022 Schultz scored 19 (63%) of his 30 goals against non-8 sides:
3 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v Adel; 2 v StK; 4 v Carl; 2 v PtA; 2 v GWS

Pretty meaningless given how close Adel were to making the 8.
And given the expected result between Top and Bottom 8, would be 50/50, then this argument really doesn’t prove much.

Edit: Overlay that Bottom 8 have poorer defence then 60% is probably not unexpected.

 

[Kes1984]

I

On a different tangent could AJ be turned into a defender if needed there?

That could be interesting

 

[Harry O]

Anyone doing well in Longmuir’s forward line with the Buckley like ball movement is deserving of praise

 

[well left]

2023 Schultz scored 20 (60%) of his 33 goals against non-8 sides:
6 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v GCS; 3 v Gee; 1 v Ess; 2 v WB; 2 v Adel

2022 Schultz scored 19 (63%) of his 30 goals against non-8 sides:
3 v WC; 1 v Nth; 2 vs Haw; 3 v Adel; 2 v StK; 4 v Carl; 2 v PtA; 2 v GWS

But I’m guessing Freo also probably kicked 60% or even more of their goals against the non-top 8 sides

And given there are more sides out of the 8 than in it that percentage isn’t as bad as it seems.


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[ElliottsMaggies]

I

That could be interesting

Isn't it AJ's defensive efforts which is criticised the most?

 

[PieWithHorse]

This table is a great example and shows how steep player quality drops off. People really do overate draft picks outside the top 10. I also think the fact that between 20 and 30 and 30 and 50 the average games played is the same highlights after 20 it really is a bloody lottery. For context after pick 20 we are more likely to get the next Callum brown. Any wonder clubs trade multiple firsts to try and get into the top 10. They aren’t worth much at all most of the time

AVERAGE CAREER GAMES PLAYED (1993-2008 AFL National Drafts)


Pick 1: 239.6

Pick 2: 208.3

Pick 3-5: 162.3

Pick 6-10: 122.9

Pick 11-20: 119.2

Pick 21-30: 81.1

Pick 31-50: 81.0

Pick 51-70: 48.6

A little bit statistically ingenuine comparing them in uneven group sizes too. End up getting dragged down by the volume vs say pick 1 or 2.

Based on above 1-10 average 154.9 games.

 

[windchimes]

Anyone doing well in Longmuir’s forward line with the Buckley like ball movement is deserving of praise

Let alone a small forward - 33 goals was a fair effort from him this year.

I’d personally back him to kick 40+ in our side.

 

[sadako1999]

Let’s not forget Brayshaw’s comment in the Bulldogs game on the wing re AJ being a “beautiful athlete”…it is not hard to see. But my bias aside he is a 193cm potential star and laconic match winner but needs to get fitter and knuckle down and play in any senior position next year needed…”his feathers are just too bright” for reserves.

ps…not to mention with a view to the holy trinity of aboriginal forward line excitement in 2025 with AJ Hill and JUH!

 

[Pedro]

Absolute Furphy but say Eagles offer pick 1 for DeGoey & Allen or AJ or Future 1st would we take it?

Same Dogs for JUH but DeGoey and this year 1st.

Or both scenarios hard pass.

Its a no for me. We've put so much effort into DeGoey and its starting to pay off big time. What if pick 1 turns into another Tom Boyd or that flake that Melbourne took. JUH is a bit more of a known talent and on the improve, but not for DeGoey. Fix one hole and create another. It just wouldn't sit well with me.

 

[pablo disco bar]

Hope we grab the McLaughlin fellow that the suns delisted

 

[sam_e]

Do this for curnow. I’d bet it’s the same or worse

of course worse, goals against bottom 4 + goals from frees

 

[sam_e]

Pretty meaningless given how close Adel were to making the 8.
And given the expected result between Top and Bottom 8, would be 50/50, then this argument really doesn’t prove much.

Edit: Overlay that Bottom 8 have poorer defence then 60% is probably not unexpected.

(2023) 12 of 33 goals against the bottom 4 sides

i'm not arguing either way ..

would you pay a premium for someone that is a flat track bully (not suggesting Sarge is that) vs someone that does their best work in finals