My word I am
AFL AFL 2025
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Murphy Reid (Freo) Rising Star @ 34s Points Bet
Pre-season AFL thread my good man!
- May 5, 2014
- 1,308
- 1,779
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- Gold Coast
Does anywhere have team leading goal scorer yet
hes not best 22
best bet at this price is Garcia who should be getting starting mid minutes
- Oct 6, 2011
- 39,127
- 12,233
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- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Not one that usually looks at Multi markets involving All-Australians and team props. But PB have a three way market involving: teams U/O wins, All-Australian candidates and goalscorer performance. Ive noticed SB pull off their All-Australian markets at time of writing.
Two appeal to me. I like the North Melbourne one at $17 and Essendon at $41. I think Merrett is still one of the top 8 mids in the comp and in my pre-season review I didn't have the Bombers clearing 9.5 wins, but will be thereabouts with that particular U/O 9.5 wins line. Ive been looking for Caddy lines at the major sportsbooks and its one of the rare sites Ive seen listed in a parlay of some sort. Also at the time of writing there are injury concerns to Gulden and Bont to start early season. Currently listed at $4.00 to make All-Australian team as a single bet which I think is fair for Merrett.
North Melbourne O5.5 wins from what I last saw at SB was around 1.65 and Larkey to kick 50+ was around 2.20, I think Sheezel improves from his good form in 2024 season after polling 15 Brownlow votes. Pretty sure PB had this in the low 20s yesterday but im seeing 17 , which from my side still looks good value.
Observations about the other futures:
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Two appeal to me. I like the North Melbourne one at $17 and Essendon at $41. I think Merrett is still one of the top 8 mids in the comp and in my pre-season review I didn't have the Bombers clearing 9.5 wins, but will be thereabouts with that particular U/O 9.5 wins line. Ive been looking for Caddy lines at the major sportsbooks and its one of the rare sites Ive seen listed in a parlay of some sort. Also at the time of writing there are injury concerns to Gulden and Bont to start early season. Currently listed at $4.00 to make All-Australian team as a single bet which I think is fair for Merrett.
North Melbourne O5.5 wins from what I last saw at SB was around 1.65 and Larkey to kick 50+ was around 2.20, I think Sheezel improves from his good form in 2024 season after polling 15 Brownlow votes. Pretty sure PB had this in the low 20s yesterday but im seeing 17 , which from my side still looks good value.
Observations about the other futures:
- Worried about Sydney and WB ones mainly due to Bont and Gulden
- Waterman will do well to kick 40+ this season, let alone 50+ with Allen back.
- Watched Brisbane v Adelaide pre-season, it looks like Thilthorpe is going to be play more up the field this season. 8.50 seems too short there, given Rankine has never made an All-Australian side before. Id want at least around 5s or 6s for Rankine to make All-Aus team.
- Brisbane aren't a shoe-in to make the Top 4 this season
- Not sold on Carlton finishing Top 4 and a bit worried about the niggly injury Curnow has picked up early in the season.
- McStay needs to stay on the ball park for at least 15 games for that to have a chance.
- Fremantle battling to make the Top 8 let alone the Top 4.
- Dont mind the Geelong one but not with the Top 4 for those odds chucked in there.
- The midfield is arguably the most competitive position. Im not sure if Newcombe is in the Top 8-10 midfielders in the comp.
- Given the line set by Dabble for Fritsch goals is U/O 37.5, 100+ goals for JVR and Fritsch feels alot. Id quote that around at 1/8 chance in happening this season. The Dees are probably more a defensive unit than an all-attacking unit for me.
- Think it may take a bit of time for Lukosius to blend in with his new team. Dabble have U/O goals for Georgiades at 39.5 for 2025 season. Georgiades had a solid season last year, the question will be can he back it up? But this is a no for me, given both are liable to possible injury.An injury to either , really stuffs this bet up. You need both fit and firing for that to clear.
- Cant remember a season when a potential wooden spooner had a defender in the All Australian team. Maybe it might be a worthwhile bet as insurance if you have parlays on Under 2.5 wins for Richmond?
- Saints have a fair few injuries to start early season, Im not sure they clear the 10.5 win total. Saints also have better teams in the past few seasons and Higgins hasn't cleared 40+ in those teams. Would want a bit more than $17 for those three things to happen for the Saints.
- Thread starter
- #33
So....bet on the score unders?
AFL to wait as cyclone looms ahead of season opener
AFL CEO Andrew Dillon provides an update on Brisbane v Geelong season opener as Tropical Cyclone Alfred looms off Queensland coast
www.afl.com.au
So the bookies don’t know there’s a cycloneSo....bet on the score unders?
AFL to wait as cyclone looms ahead of season opener
AFL CEO Andrew Dillon provides an update on Brisbane v Geelong season opener as Tropical Cyclone Alfred looms off Queensland coastwww.afl.com.au
tracking down the coast ?
damo from cricket
Rookie
- Mar 2, 2024
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Good shout on the North one I reckon - I don't mind the WB one but a bit low on odds to dabble imo.Not one that usually looks at Multi markets involving All-Australians and team props. But PB have a three way market involving: teams U/O wins, All-Australian candidates and goalscorer performance. Ive noticed SB pull off their All-Australian markets at time of writing.
View attachment 2237516
PointsBet | Fixed Odds & PointsBetting
Australia's fast growing online bookmaker. Fixed odds markets (Sports & Racing) + Spread Betting where the more your bet wins by, the more you win.pointsbet.com.au
Two appeal to me. I like the North Melbourne one at $17 and Essendon at $41. I think Merrett is still one of the top 8 mids in the comp and in my pre-season review I didn't have the Bombers clearing 9.5 wins, but will be thereabouts with that particular U/O 9.5 wins line. Ive been looking for Caddy lines at the major sportsbooks and its one of the rare sites Ive seen listed in a parlay of some sort. Also at the time of writing there are injury concerns to Gulden and Bont to start early season. Currently listed at $4.00 to make All-Australian team as a single bet which I think is fair for Merrett.
North Melbourne O5.5 wins from what I last saw at SB was around 1.65 and Larkey to kick 50+ was around 2.20, I think Sheezel improves from his good form in 2024 season after polling 15 Brownlow votes. Pretty sure PB had this in the low 20s yesterday but im seeing 17 , which from my side still looks good value.
Observations about the other futures:
- Worried about Sydney and WB ones mainly due to Bont and Gulden
- Waterman will do well to kick 40+ this season, let alone 50+ with Allen back.
- Watched Brisbane v Adelaide pre-season, it looks like Thilthorpe is going to be play more up the field this season. 8.50 seems too short there, given Rankine has never made an All-Australian side before. Id want at least around 5s or 6s for Rankine to make All-Aus team.
- Brisbane aren't a shoe-in to make the Top 4 this season
- Not sold on Carlton finishing Top 4 and a bit worried about the niggly injury Curnow has picked up early in the season.
- McStay needs to stay on the ball park for at least 15 games for that to have a chance.
- Fremantle battling to make the Top 8 let alone the Top 4.
- Dont mind the Geelong one but not with the Top 4 for those odds chucked in there.
- The midfield is arguably the most competitive position. Im not sure if Newcombe is in the Top 8-10 midfielders in the comp.
- Given the line set by Dabble for Fritsch goals is U/O 37.5, 100+ goals for JVR and Fritsch feels alot. Id quote that around at 1/8 chance in happening this season. The Dees are probably more a defensive unit than an all-attacking unit for me.
- Think it may take a bit of time for Lukosius to blend in with his new team. Dabble have U/O goals for Georgiades at 39.5 for 2025 season. Georgiades had a solid season last year, the question will be can he back it up? But this is a no for me, given both are liable to possible injury.An injury to either , really stuffs this bet up. You need both fit and firing for that to clear.
- Cant remember a season when a potential wooden spooner had a defender in the All Australian team. Maybe it might be a worthwhile bet as insurance if you have parlays on Under 2.5 wins for Richmond?
- Saints have a fair few injuries to start early season, Im not sure they clear the 10.5 win total. Saints also have better teams in the past few seasons and Higgins hasn't cleared 40+ in those teams. Would want a bit more than $17 for those three things to happen for the Saints.
Where can you find over/unders on Coleman?.. can't see it at SB.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 39,127
- 12,233
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Sportsbet don't do Unders/Overs on Season Goalscorers.
At the time of writing , PointsBet pulled their Goalscorer Season markets off yesterday. (40+, 50+, 60+, 70+, 80+ out)
if Bont is likely to miss 5-6 games early in the season, I think that All-Australian price is too short personally, seeing $7 on him to make All Australian Team.
Think the combo of Bont All Australia/Dogs Over 12.5 wins/Sam Darcy 50+ Goals should be odds of minimum $50+, not $12 as quoted on PB.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 39,127
- 12,233
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
Another Futures bet, Dabbles Pick Em Involving Disposals and AFL Fantasy.
Larkeys Goals, J Camerons Goals and Sam Darcys Goals line have shifted since last posted the tables. And at the lines of those 3 are now: Larkey 46.5, J Cameron 49.5 and Sam Darcy 41.5. I see no reason why they will go under despite all their goal lines going up a goal, for the Bulldogs, JUH has issues as he will likely miss the early chunk of the season and has to win back the trust of: coach, captain and Rory Lobb.
Ill add 2 more picks to my Pick Em. Dylan Shiel Under 25.2 disposal average for 2025. He isn't getting this in a midfield where he is the 5th or 6th best in their team. Shiel has cleared 26+ Disposals, 13 times out of the past 48 games. With this bet, I feel its whether Dylan Shiel is good enough to be on the park for at least 15 times in the season rather than him getting to the line. I also get a sneaky feeling he may be used as a sub or subbed off in a few games in 2025. At 31 and turning 32 years of age, Im happy to fade him this season.
Nick Daicos Under 109.5 AFL Fantasy Season average. N Daicos averaged 100.67 against Top 8 sides last season and his overall average was 104.7. Collingwood play Top 8 sides from last season 11 times in 2025. Thats enough for me to fade him on the AFL Fantasy futures line. And I reckon with Dan Houston playing in defence and providing run out of defence, it reduces Naicos AFL Fantasy scoring this season. Cant really justify why Dabble have his line about 5 points higher than his 2024 season average. He has to produce a Brownlow-like year to get near those numbers I feel. And even if he wins it this season, its a high line for a player that will be tagged or opposition teams will look to reduce influence on. I do feel that given the choice of going Under on Supercoach or Fantasy, the Fantasy is the better option. His average for Supercoach in 2024 is a bit more closer to that line for Supercoach set by Dabble.
Again Ill stick this up as a sticky for the season. Date As At 5/3/25.
Multi 1- J Cameron 50+ Goals, Larkey Over 46.5 Goals, S Darcy Over 41.5 Goals, Dylan Shiel Under 25.2 Disposal Odds: 12.60 (2u)
Multi 2- J Cameron 50+ Goals, Larkey Over 46.5 Goals, S Darcy Over 41.5 Goals, Dylan Shiel Under 25.2 Disposals, Nick Daicos Under 109.5 AFL Fantasy Season Average. Odds: 26.50 (1u)
Larkeys Goals, J Camerons Goals and Sam Darcys Goals line have shifted since last posted the tables. And at the lines of those 3 are now: Larkey 46.5, J Cameron 49.5 and Sam Darcy 41.5. I see no reason why they will go under despite all their goal lines going up a goal, for the Bulldogs, JUH has issues as he will likely miss the early chunk of the season and has to win back the trust of: coach, captain and Rory Lobb.
Ill add 2 more picks to my Pick Em. Dylan Shiel Under 25.2 disposal average for 2025. He isn't getting this in a midfield where he is the 5th or 6th best in their team. Shiel has cleared 26+ Disposals, 13 times out of the past 48 games. With this bet, I feel its whether Dylan Shiel is good enough to be on the park for at least 15 times in the season rather than him getting to the line. I also get a sneaky feeling he may be used as a sub or subbed off in a few games in 2025. At 31 and turning 32 years of age, Im happy to fade him this season.
Nick Daicos Under 109.5 AFL Fantasy Season average. N Daicos averaged 100.67 against Top 8 sides last season and his overall average was 104.7. Collingwood play Top 8 sides from last season 11 times in 2025. Thats enough for me to fade him on the AFL Fantasy futures line. And I reckon with Dan Houston playing in defence and providing run out of defence, it reduces Naicos AFL Fantasy scoring this season. Cant really justify why Dabble have his line about 5 points higher than his 2024 season average. He has to produce a Brownlow-like year to get near those numbers I feel. And even if he wins it this season, its a high line for a player that will be tagged or opposition teams will look to reduce influence on. I do feel that given the choice of going Under on Supercoach or Fantasy, the Fantasy is the better option. His average for Supercoach in 2024 is a bit more closer to that line for Supercoach set by Dabble.
Again Ill stick this up as a sticky for the season. Date As At 5/3/25.
Multi 1- J Cameron 50+ Goals, Larkey Over 46.5 Goals, S Darcy Over 41.5 Goals, Dylan Shiel Under 25.2 Disposal Odds: 12.60 (2u)
Multi 2- J Cameron 50+ Goals, Larkey Over 46.5 Goals, S Darcy Over 41.5 Goals, Dylan Shiel Under 25.2 Disposals, Nick Daicos Under 109.5 AFL Fantasy Season Average. Odds: 26.50 (1u)
F. Me!
The Swans are a Farken joke!
The Swans are a Farken joke!
Nice call. Into $10 now after those 4 goals in 10 minutes yesterday. Probably won’t get the nomination this week with Lalor’s game unfortunately.
Rankine $51, might’ve snagged 2/3 with a very impressive game. Played mid for the most part but picked up possies all over.
28d (10k, 18hb) with 16 contested, 6 clearances, 7 score involvements, 6 I50, 2 frees, 2 goals
Durability always a concern but if the crows do well like a lot are tipping, he’s gotta be a decent shot at polling well.
28d (10k, 18hb) with 16 contested, 6 clearances, 7 score involvements, 6 I50, 2 frees, 2 goals
Durability always a concern but if the crows do well like a lot are tipping, he’s gotta be a decent shot at polling well.
Rankine $101 on lads. Could be a good cashout opportunity. Gets the 3 from me this week.
BTW is there a Brownlow discussion thread anywhere or is this it?
Nice find. Also $101 on neds, which i've now had a small nibble at seeing he's into $26 at sportsbet, tab, betr.
Dawson Brownlow @ 26 Lads
Into 13/17 SB/PB
Into 13/17 SB/PB
Now into $26 on neds as well. Was on his way to possibly polling on the weekend until they decided to rest him in the second half.
Think Dawson gets the 3 and probably has 5-6 votes at the moment.
Any interest in Jack Macrae at $151 (tab)? Currently $67 at sb/neds/lads.
He was immense on the weekend and looking like his old self but without the likes of Bont and Libba to take votes off him.
I’m not sure how well he’s historically polled but do vaguely recall a year where he was one of the faves? Not sure what type of winner he’d be. Maybe in the mould of Tom Mitchell or Priddis?
Has another favourable match up where they’d be heavy favourites, especially after beating the cats pretty well for the most part.
EDIT: funnily enough the afl site just wrote an article on him. Excerpt below:
JACK Macrae is back in the middle of the ground, and thriving.
Squeezed out of an inside midfield role at the Western Bulldogs, the 30-year-old premiership star crossed to St Kilda in the off-season and has hit the ground running.
Macrae attended an average of only 12 per cent of the Dogs' centre bounces last year and didn't venture into the middle of the ground in 11 of his 19 matches.
After just two matches at St Kilda, he's attended an average of 79 per cent of centre bounces, recording a cumulative 69 disposals and 21 clearances.
He was immense on the weekend and looking like his old self but without the likes of Bont and Libba to take votes off him.
I’m not sure how well he’s historically polled but do vaguely recall a year where he was one of the faves? Not sure what type of winner he’d be. Maybe in the mould of Tom Mitchell or Priddis?
Has another favourable match up where they’d be heavy favourites, especially after beating the cats pretty well for the most part.
EDIT: funnily enough the afl site just wrote an article on him. Excerpt below:
JACK Macrae is back in the middle of the ground, and thriving.
Squeezed out of an inside midfield role at the Western Bulldogs, the 30-year-old premiership star crossed to St Kilda in the off-season and has hit the ground running.
Macrae attended an average of only 12 per cent of the Dogs' centre bounces last year and didn't venture into the middle of the ground in 11 of his 19 matches.
After just two matches at St Kilda, he's attended an average of 79 per cent of centre bounces, recording a cumulative 69 disposals and 21 clearances.
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