AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 5

[balmainforever]

 

[the_big_sav]

Will 5 day break hurt crows?

 

[demon_fanatic]

Will 5 day break hurt crows?

Yeh was a intense game in heat too

 

[wcadams88]

Will 5 day break hurt crows?

Fingers Crossed

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Curnow for 6 wound in from 14 to 11 straight away on 365

Kemp good odds for 4,5,6 @ 9.50, 28, 100

 

[ferrisb]

Curnow for 6 wound in from 14 to 11 straight away on 365

Kemp good odds for 4,5,6 @ 9.50, 28, 100

 

[dontlimitme]

if pitto is back this week for carlton TDK could be rather sneaky up forward

 

[omdd]

SOS for 3+ @51 PB massive risk but just hoping that he gets thrown forward since West Coast won't have enough talls for matchups with carltons overly tall defense and no certainty Harry plays

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet Free Hit Thursday Crows v Geelong

Adelaide +8.5 handicap
Total Match Points 171-180 points
Walker AGS -1st Half
Thilthorpe AGS-1st Half
Dawson AGS
Miers Over 20.5 Disposals
Rankine Under 23.5 Disposals
Soligo Under 26.5 Disposals

Odds: $301

*Walker and Thilthorpe have covered this in 3/4 games as a duo this season. Filthy should be too strong and too big for SdK and/or Sullivan. Walker will get 3rd best defender

• Fading Rankine disposals after the taxing game in the heat last week
• Same too for Soligo
• Miers covered this line in the corresponding game last season with 26. I had his projected line a bit higher than 20.5.
• Gut feeling Dawson snags a goal
• Crows should be favourite but can see this game being decided by under 2 goals either way
• The 171-180 pts range has landed 35 games out of 244 since they have moved games from Footy Park to Adelaide Oval. The totals set by the sportsbook looks about right. (U/O 179.5 pts)

 

[Modra6]

Archer Reid WC vs a fragile blues side

2 goals - $8.50 PB
3 goals - $34

So far heat maps have been good and had a few pings at goal
Debut - 0 shots
Game 2 - 2 shots
Game 3 - 4 shots
Game 4 - 2 shots

 

[checkraiseulite]

port to cover / win has to be decent. ken coaching for his lyf.

edit: expected a larger than 16.5 point line.

 

[demon_fanatic]

suprised no one has mentioned Sydney as a great bet.. Pies lose De Goey, Schulz and Houston for this and the swans are humming along nicely yes it was a poor North effort but the swans look organised and disciplined across all lines right now.. only worry is possible scars from Adelaide oval after that port belting last year haaha!!? long bow to draw but i'd actually rather this played at Ethihad as I feel Pies have a good record at Ade Oval yes

 

[Mags98]

day out, mackenzie for 30 @ 8.50 sb

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Remember Jase Burgoyne killed us last time.

Can get 4.80 for 25 and 18 for 30 TAB

30 on PB is 3.20???

 

[gillon]

Remember Jase Burgoyne killed us last time.

Can get 4.80 for 25 and 18 for 30 TAB

30 on PB is 3.20???

Tailed 19, 24, 29. Great odds for a guy who has hit 25 and 30 already this year.

 

[gillon]

Free hit Thurs -

Dawson under 27.5
Fog 2
Stengle 1

 

[NYRB]

Taken the Betr Special at odds of $5.00. Max stake $25

 

[dontlimitme]

callum brown 4.75/17/75 for 2/3/4 on 365 seems pretty good considering he was 9s for 4 on SB on the weekend. might not play but if he does and he's up there its a crazy price, he's kicked multiples before and is a very good set shot.

 

[demon_fanatic]

will be keeping my eye on setterfield disposal odds if he comes in vs an unaccountable and out of form dees midfield.. he is a big body who finds the ball well and coming off a good reserves game... they lost Edwards to ACL and caldwell so unsure if theyll go 2 pure mids in tsatas and setterfield but we shall see

 

[NYRB]

Betr No Sweat Token Promo

Max Stake: $25

Adelaide v Geelong

Bailey Smith 1st Goalscorer
Jack Bowes AGS
Geelong +1.5 1st Qtr handicap

Odds: $91.00 (Bet Refund if any leg loses)

• Bailey Smith has 7 goals from 6 games at Adelaide Oval
• Bowes has 6 goals from 10 games at Adelaide Oval

Bowes scored a couple last week, $2.60 as a straight up is a fair price. Keep thinking the game last week would have sucked out a bit of energy to the Crows in the heat more than the Cats game last week down at the cooler Geelong. Fancy the Cats to come out of the blocks early.

 

[NYRB]

The Adelaide angle for a long shot , using my 2nd BetR No Sweat Free Hit:



Geelong to cover the spread. Dont think there will be too much between the two sides in this game. Not sure if we see the high tempo end-to-end fast footy like we did in Gold Coast v Adelaide.

 

[kicksome]

callum brown 4.75/17/75 for 2/3/4 on 365 seems pretty good considering he was 9s for 4 on SB on the weekend. might not play but if he does and he's up there its a crazy price, he's kicked multiples before and is a very good set shot.

im taking that as well. Can kick a goal.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Really liking Zac Taylor as a goalscorer. Kicked three in his last game vs Sydney in Sydney and trained forward all preseason. If Izak plays, he’ll be named sub and bet will be voided anyway. If Izak is a late out, that Rachele half forward role is his.

$2.4/12/61 for AGS/2+/3+ on Bet365

 

[Johanpetro]

O’Brien to have most hitouts for the week at $4.50 Sportsbet. Leads the league in hitouts and had 53 last time he played Stanley

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

With McKay back do we cash out Kemp and TDK bets?