AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 4

[balmainforever]

 

[windyhill]

Cats to lead @ halftime. 1-12 or 13-24.

 

[the_big_sav]

Close 0.1
Henry 0.1
Dempsey 0.1
Stengle 0.1
Cameron 1.2

Boooo

 

[the_big_sav]

This has all the hallmarks of Geelong phoning it in. I've gone over 40. My guess is dees will kick 3 of last 4 goals and bring it back to in the 30s or Geelong will coast for the game with a 20odd point lead then kick 3 late and win by 35-39

 

[Atavistic]

Yeah, I bet on Geelong 40+ too, and also 60+.

Made money on marks bets anyway.

 

[NYRB]

Head to Head Stat Multi

Cats v Dees
Oliver More Score Involvements than Max Holmes
Tom Stewart More Marks than Petracca
Viney More Tackles than Miers

Odds: $9.50 (1u) at Betr. Any of those legs finish in a tie= loss.

This comes through at $9.50.

+8.50 units up for Friday night footy for Cats v Dees.

Oliver 4-3 Holmes - Scoring Involvements
Stewart 11-3 Petracca- Marks
Viney 3-0 Miers- Tackles

 

[NYRB]

3 Leg Pick Em Gold Coast v Adelaide at Dabble Sportsbook:

• Matt Rowell Over 97.5 AFL Fantasy Points. Cleared in his past 2 home games (at Carrara) against Crows, has cleared 2/2 from his games in 2025. I think he is continuing on his good form from 2024 and don't really see a reason why he goes under this line today. PointsBet have 110+ Fantasy at under evens at $1.80- I reckon this pick em line at Dabble is great bet builder for multis for this game or any other AFL game this round.
• Touk Miller Over 93.5 Supercoach Pts- Again, cleared in both home games against Crows (both at Carrara) in last 2. And cleared 2/2 in games in 2025. He is playing some of his best footy in his career to start the season.
• Worrell Under 5.5 Marks- has gone under this line 21 of 28 times in his career. I think he gets Ethan Read in a one on one contest today. Im happy to fade a player that hasn't cleared this line against the Suns in prior games. For the guys wanting to go Over, TAB has 6+ Marks at $1.70. Personally would have loved a nice push line of 6 but will take the 5.5. Dont see this as the kind of game Adelaide get cheap disposals coming out of their backline.

Odds: $6.50 (1u)

The backbone of my bets in the early Saturday afternoon match is Rowell and Touk Miller. An altered version:

• Matt Rowell Over 97.5 AFL Fantasy Points
• Touk Miller Over 93.5 Supercoach Pts
• Alex Neal-Bullen Over 4 Tackles. His last 4 games (against the Suns) he has cleared this line comfortably : 7, 6, 9 and 9. Think with a little rain in Gold Coast last night, there will be a few extra tackles in this match today. It has a real finals-like intensity to it today. Think the tackle count goes upwards of 130+ for this match today. TAB have 4+ Tackles at odds of $1.40 which feels short. Probably lands somewhere in the 3-6 range for tackles today. A win for Adelaide they go top, a win for Suns they go 2nd.

Odds: $6.50 (1u)

Five-Fold for above 4 legs with 5th Leg:

Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, Worrell Under 5.5 Marks, ANB Over 4 Tackles, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal (0.25u) @ $25:

• Ben Ainsworth Over 1 Goal- has cleared this line in his past 2 home games against Crows at Carrara. One of those matches he managed to poll in the Brownlow. Think he should be a little too quick on ground level against a likely matchup in Laird today. And should get opportunities on ground level against this Crows defence. The only concern about this bet ? He might be a bit rusty having missed the win last round.

Also done 3x 0.50u stakes on a Four-Fold:
Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, Worrell Under 5.5 Marks, ANB Over 4 Tackles @ 13.08
Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, Worrell Under 5.5 Marks, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal @ 12.50
Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, ANB Over 4 Tackles, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal @ 12.50 @ 13.44


And a $25 shot lotto for 0.25u stake:
Rowell 98+ Fantasy, Rankine 100+ Supercoach Pts, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal, Thilthorpe Over 1.5 Goals, John Noble 81+ Supercoach Pts

No real form guide for Rankine here but he would have comfortably cleared this line in all games this season , if he didnt get subbed off versus Essendon. Sense he will be up for it against his former team on his old stomping ground.

 

[Shueygod]

Thilthorpe and Fogarty odds are looking particularly good, any explanation as to why? Feel like it should be a flowing high scoring match.

 

[NYRB]

3 Leg Pick Em Gold Coast v Adelaide at Dabble Sportsbook:

• Matt Rowell Over 97.5 AFL Fantasy Points. Cleared in his past 2 home games (at Carrara) against Crows, has cleared 2/2 from his games in 2025. I think he is continuing on his good form from 2024 and don't really see a reason why he goes under this line today. PointsBet have 110+ Fantasy at under evens at $1.80- I reckon this pick em line at Dabble is great bet builder for multis for this game or any other AFL game this round.
• Touk Miller Over 93.5 Supercoach Pts- Again, cleared in both home games against Crows (both at Carrara) in last 2. And cleared 2/2 in games in 2025. He is playing some of his best footy in his career to start the season.
• Worrell Under 5.5 Marks- has gone under this line 21 of 28 times in his career. I think he gets Ethan Read in a one on one contest today. Im happy to fade a player that hasn't cleared this line against the Suns in prior games. For the guys wanting to go Over, TAB has 6+ Marks at $1.70. Personally would have loved a nice push line of 6 but will take the 5.5. Dont see this as the kind of game Adelaide get cheap disposals coming out of their backline.

Odds: $6.50 (1u)

The backbone of my bets in the early Saturday afternoon match is Rowell and Touk Miller. An altered version:

• Matt Rowell Over 97.5 AFL Fantasy Points
• Touk Miller Over 93.5 Supercoach Pts
• Alex Neal-Bullen Over 4 Tackles. His last 4 games (against the Suns) he has cleared this line comfortably : 7, 6, 9 and 9. Think with a little rain in Gold Coast last night, there will be a few extra tackles in this match today. It has a real finals-like intensity to it today. Think the tackle count goes upwards of 130+ for this match today. TAB have 4+ Tackles at odds of $1.40 which feels short. Probably lands somewhere in the 3-6 range for tackles today. A win for Adelaide they go top, a win for Suns they go 2nd.

Odds: $6.50 (1u)

Five-Fold for above 4 legs with 5th Leg:

Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, Worrell Under 5.5 Marks, ANB Over 4 Tackles, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal (0.25u) @ $25:

• Ben Ainsworth Over 1 Goal- has cleared this line in his past 2 home games against Crows at Carrara. One of those matches he managed to poll in the Brownlow. Think he should be a little too quick on ground level against a likely matchup in Laird today. And should get opportunities on ground level against this Crows defence. The only concern about this bet ? He might be a bit rusty having missed the win last round.

Also done 3x 0.50u stakes on a Four-Fold:
Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, Worrell Under 5.5 Marks, ANB Over 4 Tackles @ 13.08
Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, Worrell Under 5.5 Marks, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal @ 12.50
Rowell Over 98+ Fantasy Pts, Miller 94+ Supercoach Pts, ANB Over 4 Tackles, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal @ 12.50 @ 13.44


And a $25 shot lotto for 0.25u stake:
Rowell 98+ Fantasy, Rankine 100+ Supercoach Pts, Ainsworth Over 1 Goal, Thilthorpe Over 1.5 Goals, John Noble 81+ Supercoach Pts

No real form guide for Rankine here but he would have comfortably cleared this line in all games this season , if he didnt get subbed off versus Essendon. Sense he will be up for it against his former team on his old stomping ground.

-4u down for Suns v Crows.

Peatling puts a tag on Rowell and players looked cooked in the 2nd half due to the heat.

 

[LeCoqHead]

Neale 2+, Morris 2+
30.00 @SB

 

[the_big_sav]

Rayner goal, Bailey goal and 60+ would be a great way to finish off this match

 

[the_big_sav]

Couldn't even keep it above 40

 

[fpm84]

Parker 3+ @51
B365

 

[Areyoufireal]

Corey Warner 1/2/3 @ 2.15 / 8 / 51 B365

Simpkin 2 @ 5 SB

Parker 1/2/3 @ 2.30 / 11 / 51 B365 - against his old mob.

Konstanty 2/3/4 @ 5.75 / 18 / 70 SB/B365

 

[NYRB]

Heeney has scored at least 1 goal in 11 of his past 12 game against the Roos.

Dabble Pick Em:

Caleb Daniel Over 6 Marks
Luke McDonald Over 4 Marks
Heeney Over 1 Goal

Odds: $6.50 (1u)

Caleb Daniel Over 6 Marks
Luke McDonald Over 4 Marks
Heeney Over 1 Goal
Parker Over 0.5 Goal

Odds: $12.50 (0.5u)

BetR Free Hit
Parker AGS
LDU AGS
Sydney By 1-39 pts

Odds: $8.50

N Larkey,P Curtis,C Zurhaar,J Amartey,H McLean,W Hayward To Combine for 14+ Goals @ $17 (0.50u)

 

[NYRB]

And 0.375u on this 79/1 shot. Feel like there will be over 200+ marks in the game.

 

[NYRB]

Heeney has scored at least 1 goal in 11 of his past 12 game against the Roos.

Dabble Pick Em:

Caleb Daniel Over 6 Marks
Luke McDonald Over 4 Marks
Heeney Over 1 Goal

Odds: $6.50 (1u)

Caleb Daniel Over 6 Marks
Luke McDonald Over 4 Marks
Heeney Over 1 Goal
Parker Over 0.5 Goal

Odds: $12.50 (0.5u)

BetR Free Hit
Parker AGS
LDU AGS
Sydney By 1-39 pts

Odds: $8.50

N Larkey,P Curtis,C Zurhaar,J Amartey,H McLean,W Hayward To Combine for 14+ Goals @ $17 (0.50u)

And 0.375u on this 79/1 shot. Feel like there will be over 200+ marks in the game.

View attachment 2273389

The 1 winner tonight at odds of $17, which sends me in the Green for Roos v Sydney


+6.125u up for Saturday Night Football.

 

[demon_fanatic]

sydney do replace players well but got a feeling on North here, f

The 1 winner tonight at odds of $17, which sends me in the Green for Roos v Sydney


+6.125u up for Saturday Night Football

The 1 winner tonight at odds of $17, which sends me in the Green for Roos v Sydney


+6.125u up for Saturday Night Football.

thats great odds at 17.00.. what books offer those kind of bets what book did you take it on? i need to join like it won't always go your way but you don't need it to go your way that often at 17's.... seemed a serious value bet

 

[Atavistic]

Aliir 10 marks, Caminiti 10, Bergman 8 @ 20 (PB)


Edit: Caminiti 10 @ 8 at TAB is probably better.

Hogan 8-10 marks @ 2.75/7 at PB.

 

[NYRB]

sydney do replace players well but got a feeling on North here, f



thats great odds at 17.00.. what books offer those kind of bets what book did you take it on? i need to join like it won't always go your way but you don't need it to go your way that often at 17's.... seemed a serious value bet

TAB Touch WA my friend.

They offer all sorts of promos eg 50% profit boosts, Goalscorer combos..

 

[Atavistic]

Hogan is $1.01 for 2 goals at TAB. Worst 2+ odds I've ever seen.

 

[dontlimitme]

this thread is so dead these days

 

[pacemaker]

this thread is so dead these days

 

[Hellboy101]

Marks multi @ Dabble -pick em - overs
Hogan over 6 5
Bergmann o7.5, Allir o7, Farrell o5.5
Ryan o6, Clark o4.5, Dale o4.5
X80

 

[Kiddbrown]

Daniel’s 3
Coniglio 2
Callahan 2

$181 sb

 

[HTPunter]

Kelly & Daniels goals for 2/3 & 2-4 respectively for me