List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

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Vader said:
Looking at the MSD selections, there are a few things which stand out.
  • The 2021 MSD was easily the best, with 9 of 22 players selected having played 10+ matches. Of these, Jai Newcombe (pick #2) is easily the most successful of all the MSD draftees.
  • In 2022, only 3 of 17 players achieved 10+ matches.
  • From the 2023 MSD, only 3 of 14 players selected have played a single AFL game.
  • Essendon & Hawthorn have done the best out of the MSD, well ahead of the other clubs.
The 2021 MSD contained a large number of players who had been overlooked as a result of the COVID affected 2020 season, when there were almost no U18 games played. The club recruiters had limited information to work from when making selections in the 2020 ND, so there was an unusually high amount of talent still available.

Since then, it's been slim pickings.

Clubs shouldn't be making MSD selections just for the sake of doing so. They should only do so if they can identify a player who they think has the ability to make it at AFL level. History shows that there's not much talent left by the time the ND, PSD, RD, and PSSP have all been & gone. By that stage the talent pool has been picked almost clean.

In short, it's really not worth getting emotional over whether or not the club picks a player in the MSD, because the talent pool is generally so thin that the odds of MSD players making it are very low.
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2023 MSD

I rate Ryan Maric at WC
Narkle to PA was worth the pick. Been unlucky. Better than Ned.
Caleb Poulter is a toss up but played 9 matches for the Bullies
Mitch Hardie at Geelong will make it. I rate him.
 
George Kramer said:
Murray and Keane not good enough?

Where do you think the club has in mind to play Curtin?

Given our midfield woes, to suggest using valuable draft capital on another key defender is incompetent list management but hey, we’ve shown we are good at that, so they most probably agree with you
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Not as a KPD medium to longterm ....that's like asking Rankine to play a lockdown role

Defence's win flags ....history shows that .....not sexy, but true

Keane is better suited to the Lever role .....currently Worrell struggles to position himself to leave his man and be the 3rd man up to spoil .....it's a real deficiency in our DEF ......Worrell will improve with more experience, however he's a naturally attacking player .....who could also play fwd, and do a better job than a Petty
 
hugecannon said:
I hope we give him a chance especially with Pedlar now missing for the rest of the year, he’s been dominating SANFL for the past 2 years and is still only 20(?).

Any West fans with an opinion as to why he’s been overlooked for the last few years?
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Just looking at the raw stats..he looks like a really decent prospect. Also an ok size at 184cm, and only 20. Assume there is a mental application issue? Be interested to know why as well
 

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WaynesWorld19 said:
Not as a KPD medium to longterm ....that's like asking Rankine to play a lockdown role

Defence's win flags ....history shows that .....not sexy, but true

Keane is better suited to the Lever role .....currently Worrell struggles to position himself to leave his man and be the 3rd man up to spoil .....it's a real deficiency in our DEF ......Worrell will improve with more experience, however he's a naturally attacking player .....who could also play fwd, and do a better job than a Petty
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You could have peak Silvagni back there and we're still not winning s**t with this vanilla midfield.

Giving up any draft collateral for another key defender this year is madness, especially if we can get him as a FA next year. We're not challenging for a flag next year anyway.
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
Not as a KPD medium to longterm ....that's like asking Rankine to play a lockdown role

Defence's win flags ....history shows that .....not sexy, but true

Keane is better suited to the Lever role .....currently Worrell struggles to position himself to leave his man and be the 3rd man up to spoil .....it's a real deficiency in our DEF ......Worrell will improve with more experience, however he's a naturally attacking player .....who could also play fwd, and do a better job than a Petty
Click to expand...
How does history show that? What do you have to back that up? What credit are you giving to a winning midfield giving your team more scoring opportunities and keeping it away from your defence? What about gameplan? Coaching?

How much draft capital do you want tied up in our defence when our midfield is clearly lacking?

I also asked you this before, where is this first rounder in the teens coming from to give to Melbourne?
 
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Crow till I die said:
Port traded in alir and now ratugolea + others and threw their best draft capital at constructing their midfield. North can trade in or get late pick / rookie picks to fill the kpd and flank roles
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I think they are going to struggle to trade in any quality defenders for a while as nobody will want to go there for the next few years. So they will need to rely on picking some mature key defenders from the state leagues or delisted from other sides which is always hard to find someone capable to play to the level required.

I think they should have drafted a couple of key position players over the last few years with some of the first rounders they had instead of taking only mids.
 
Crows I Am said:
I think they are going to struggle to trade in any quality defenders for a while as nobody will want to go there for the next few years. So they will need to rely on picking some mature key defenders from the state leagues or delisted from other sides which is always hard to find someone capable to play to the level required.

I think they should have drafted a couple of key position players over the last few years with some of the first rounders they had instead of taking only mids.
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I’d be dangling Butts to them, they are desperate
 
Bob Neil said:
Whilst I agree Vader with all of your facts and much of your opinions I fundamentally disagree with the conclusion that you've drawn that "it's really not worth getting emotional over whether or not the club picks a player in the MSD".

The reason for this is the inherent paradox between the fact that "the odds of (any one) MSD players making it are very low" versus the fact that this is a recurring event and therefore the odds of selecting (one or more) AFL grade players are actually heavily in our favour over a multi-year horizon.
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With a strike rate this low you need to take a LOT of players, in order to find one decent player. It's not "heavily in our favour" at all.
Bob Neil said:
We can all quibble over what is the measure of success for an MSD (or any other selection) - you've shared some stats above on the probability from '21/22 of playing 20+ matches (9/22 + 3/17 = 12/39 ≈ 30%).
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The '21 crop was exceptional, due to the limited scouting opportunities available before the 2020 ND/PSD/RD/PSSP. That left a lot of players who weren't previously identified, due to the lack of opportunities in the COVID year.

*** At this point I need to make some corrections. I was using the footywire list of draft selections, which has a column labeled "Games Since Drafted". However, the numbers in that column are inaccurate.
2021
2022
2023

Here are the current game counts for players selected in the 2022 & 2023 MSDs:
2022 MSD
1. Jye Culley - 28
2. Kallan Dawson - 9
3. Massimo D'Ambrosio - 22
4. Brett Turner - 0
5. Wade Derkson - 0
6. Max Ramsden - 5
7. Oscar Faulkhead - 0
8. Brynn Teakle - 6
9. Josh Carmichael - 8
10. Jacob Bauer - 4
11. Hugo Hall-Kahan - 0
12. Zane Williams - 0
13. Sam Durdin - 1 ** Previously played 22 games for NM
15. Sebit Kuek - 0
18. Jye McKenzie - 28
20. James Blanck - 24
22. Will Hayes - 2 ** Previously played 11 games for the dogs

2023 MSD
1. Ryan Maric - 16
2. Robert Hansen - 2
3. Clay Tucker - 0
4. Matt Coulthard - 4
6. Harry Arnold - 0
7. Mitch Hardie 0
8. Ethan Stanley - 2
9. Jaiden Hunter - 0
10. Caleb Poulter - 11 ** Previously played 12 games for Collingwood
11. Quinton Narkle - 3 ** Previously played 41 games for Geelong
12. Brandon Ryan - 3
13. James Trezise - 2
15. Jack Buller - 1

Based on the 2022 draft. there's about a 1 in 4 chance of picking a 20+ game player. Based on both drafts, there's also a 1 in 4 chance of picking a decent recycled player. It's less than a year since the 2023 MSD, but Poulter & Maric are the only players to have made a significant impact to date (and Poulter was a re-tread).
Bob Neil said:
The facts are that if you have a 30% shot at success at an event (i.e. picking an AFL grade player in the MSD) then if you repeat that event multiple times (i.e. you take two players per year for five years) then at the end of that period statistically you are likely to have drafted three AFL grade players (i.e. the other seven are 'duds'). The chances of finding NO good players are only 2.5%. There's a one in six chance of finding five or more players (i.e. a quarter of your team) in this way.
Click to expand...
Let's look at those stats again... The odds of a successful event are closer to 20% than 30%, and the definition of success is highly subjective. However, that doesn't shift the needle much - at 30% the odds of picking NO decent players is still only 2.8%.

The flipside of this is that there's a 65% chance of getting 3 or less decent players from our 10 selections... over 5 years. 2-3 successful picks over a 5 year period is hardly "a quarter of your team", it's closer to 10%.

The odds of finding a "difference maker", rather than another Patrick Parnell, are even more remote.
Bob Neil said:
So despite the fact that no single player/selection is likely to work out it is undeniably logical to continue trying this pathway because the odds are overwhelmingly in our favour - especially when you add in the fact that the asset of a list spot is a perishable good and so (like a retirement such as Sloane or a LTI) if not used will simply be wasted.
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The list spot is only one part of the equation though - there's also the resources involved in paying them, and developing them, once they're on the list.

As I said before... if they think they've identified someone who has been overlooked 4x already (ND, PSD, RD, PSSP), then go for it. However, there's no point in taking the "throw enough mud and hope that something sticks" strategy, which is what you appear to be proposing.

Given the odds of success, it's really not worth getting your knickers in a twist over A - whether or not the club chooses to participate; B - whether or not they select the player you've had your eyes on.
 
Eagleboy2011 said:
2023 MSD

I rate Ryan Maric at WC
Narkle to PA was worth the pick. Been unlucky. Better than Ned.
Caleb Poulter is a toss up but played 9 matches for the Bullies
Mitch Hardie at Geelong will make it. I rate him.
Click to expand...
Maric was taken #1 in the MSD... not a pick we are likely to have access to. He's head and shoulders above all the other players selected in that draft.

Big call on Hardie, given that he has yet to debut. Not saying you're wrong (I've never seen him play), just saying it's a big call.
 

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George Kramer said:
I’d be dangling Butts to them, they are desperate
Click to expand...
Yeah he would be a good pick up for them and once Murray is back he will struggle to get a game with us.

North should be already targeting players like Butts and Borlase. They could offer them a 20% higher salary than what they are on now for a longer deal. They would then be guaranteed to be playing every week if they were fit.
 
Scorpus said:
Also by not selecting a player in the MSD the chances of getting a good player in the MSD are precisely zero
Click to expand...
Given the significant number of spots to fill on our list, we absolutely should be using the MSD, even if on the odds we only get 1 ongoing player.
 
Kane McGoodwin said:
Given the significant number of spots to fill on our list, we absolutely should be using the MSD, even if on the odds we only get 1 ongoing player.
Click to expand...
Can you evaluate these available spots - ohh I see you meant MSD - carry on :D

I have a follow up but I will wait
 
Wish list.

Out of Contract & Free Agents

Hugh McCluggage - RFA Likely to return to VIC
Liam Baker - NFA Likely to return to WA
Brandan Parfitt - UFA, should be looking for a 3-4 year contract, wild that he's still with the Cats
Isaac Cumming - UFA
Harry Perryman - UFA
Will Hayward - RFA
Tim English - RFA

Contracted

Harrison Petty
Jack Lukosius
Caleb Daniel


McCluggage and Baker unlikely. Not sold on Hayward. Parfitt we have more of the same. I'd take one of Cumming or Perryman, leaning more towards Perryman, as Cumming has already expressed a desire to stay with GWS. If we gauge that English's performances are down to some of the cultural issues happening at WB, and not his general ability, then i'd have a firm crack at him. Hayward would be OK but again, more of the same, and didn't someone mention he hates the Crows? Plus he's an RFA and may cost a little too much.

Petty, I just don't see the need for him, would rather see how Murray/Keane/Worrell work as a trio, with Butts & Borlase as depth. We'd have a better idea waiting until next year to grab him anyway..

Harry Perryman as an UFA, Lukosius and Daniel on salary cap dumps from their respective clubs won't cost us a lot of draft capital. We bring in our 2025 1st, try get ahead of a bid on Welsh, pick up a premium midfielder, then grab Welsh and Michalanney. Could be the makings of a decent trade period.
 
Vader said:
With a strike rate this low you need to take a LOT of players, in order to find one decent player. It's not "heavily in our favour" at all.

The '21 crop was exceptional, due to the limited scouting opportunities available before the 2020 ND/PSD/RD/PSSP. That left a lot of players who weren't previously identified, due to the lack of opportunities in the COVID year.

*** At this point I need to make some corrections. I was using the footywire list of draft selections, which has a column labeled "Games Since Drafted". However, the numbers in that column are inaccurate.
2021
2022
2023

Here are the current game counts for players selected in the 2022 & 2023 MSDs:
2022 MSD
1. Jye Culley - 28
2. Kallan Dawson - 9
3. Massimo D'Ambrosio - 22
4. Brett Turner - 0
5. Wade Derkson - 0
6. Max Ramsden - 5
7. Oscar Faulkhead - 0
8. Brynn Teakle - 6
9. Josh Carmichael - 8
10. Jacob Bauer - 4
11. Hugo Hall-Kahan - 0
12. Zane Williams - 0
13. Sam Durdin - 1 ** Previously played 22 games for NM
15. Sebit Kuek - 0
18. Jye McKenzie - 28
20. James Blanck - 24
22. Will Hayes - 2 ** Previously played 11 games for the dogs

2023 MSD
1. Ryan Maric - 16
2. Robert Hansen - 2
3. Clay Tucker - 0
4. Matt Coulthard - 4
6. Harry Arnold - 0
7. Mitch Hardie 0
8. Ethan Stanley - 2
9. Jaiden Hunter - 0
10. Caleb Poulter - 11 ** Previously played 12 games for Collingwood
11. Quinton Narkle - 3 ** Previously played 41 games for Geelong
12. Brandon Ryan - 3
13. James Trezise - 2
15. Jack Buller - 1

Based on the 2022 draft. there's about a 1 in 4 chance of picking a 20+ game player. Based on both drafts, there's also a 1 in 4 chance of picking a decent recycled player. It's less than a year since the 2023 MSD, but Poulter & Maric are the only players to have made a significant impact to date (and Poulter was a re-tread).

Let's look at those stats again... The odds of a successful event are closer to 20% than 30%, and the definition of success is highly subjective. However, that doesn't shift the needle much - at 30% the odds of picking NO decent players is still only 2.8%.

The flipside of this is that there's a 65% chance of getting 3 or less decent players from our 10 selections... over 5 years. 2-3 successful picks over a 5 year period is hardly "a quarter of your team", it's closer to 10%.

The odds of finding a "difference maker", rather than another Patrick Parnell, are even more remote.

The list spot is only one part of the equation though - there's also the resources involved in paying them, and developing them, once they're on the list.

As I said before... if they think they've identified someone who has been overlooked 4x already (ND, PSD, RD, PSSP), then go for it. However, there's no point in taking the "throw enough mud and hope that something sticks" strategy, which is what you appear to be proposing.

Given the odds of success, it's really not worth getting your knickers in a twist over A - whether or not the club chooses to participate; B - whether or not they select the player you've had your eyes on.
Click to expand...
Good analysis, thank you.

While I agree it isn’t worth getting terribly worked up over, I’ll be disappointed if we don’t give the MSD a decent shake.

A) We’ve got the list spots for it with LTIs and Sloane retiring.
B) Our list has a lot of sub-par players on it and needs turning over, it is therefore worth taking a punt.

If the club ignores this then the reflection on mindset is as concerning as any individual player we might have missed.
 
Hey fellas, has anyone got mail on Noah Howes? Sounds like a poor run with injury but has the tools to make it. We don’t currently have a pick but has he been spoken about in Crows circles?
 
Going into play-station mode here

Out: Sloane (ret), Smith (ret), Himmelberg (GWS), Sholl (trade), McHenry (trade/del), Gollant (del, re-rookie); Hamill (del), Parnell (del), Keane (upgrade)
In: Perryman (FA), Hayward (FA), Daniel (trade for 2025 3rd), Keane (upgrade), FRP (draft), Welsh (draft); MSD 1, MSD 2, Gollant (re-rookie)

Would be pretty happy with an off-season like this

B: Michalanney, Murray, Worrell
HB: Hinge, Keane, Curtin
C: Perryman, Dawson, Nankervis
HF: Rankine, Fogarty, Rachele
F: Keays, Thilthorpe, Walker
R: ROB, Soligo, Laird
I/C: Pedlar, Hayward, Daniel, Crouch
Sub: Milera
 
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