I stand corrected, that makes me feel a little better
List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets
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Tell me what club isn’t matching a bid on an academy player that goes in the first round. Doesn’t happen. Warner was never an option for us
We could easily have drafted Chad Warner if we had not committed to taking Liam Henry at any pick no matter where he was bid on.
Got to remember that prior to the draft it would have been expected that Henry was bid on around 15-20. We correctly aimed to have two picks before then - our own (7) and the pick from the Brad hill trade (10). It became clear that young and Serong would not both be there at pick 7 and 10 so we swapped 10 and 28 for pick 8 which became Serong. Young was taken at 7.
Ed langdon and pick 26 was traded to Melbourne for pick 22 and a future second rounder in the trade week. The intention was taking two early picks, matching Henry around 15-20 and then not taking a pick till very late (turned out to be Frederick at 60).
To ensure enough points for Henry we then traded pick 22 and a 2020 third rounder (tied to Collingwood) to Adelaide for picks 28, 45 and 50. We then swapped the 28 and 10 for 8, securing Serong. An inspired move in hindsight.
On the night however as we know Henry was bid on at pick 10, and we had to dip into the following years draft hand to match the bid and still fell short. This was where the most horrible trade was rushed though with Port Adelaide - we gave a useful 2020 second rounder up for pick 52 and 55 from port (an awful deal for us but we were rushing and caught unawares on the night).
I have little doubt we could have swapped out the same 2020 second rounder used to match Henry, along with pick 45, to get something like pick 30 on the night in 2019 and draft either Trent Rivers or Chad Warner.
Would have been an all time great move in drafting history if Walls did that though so I think we can forgive him that one.
See my post above. I’m not saying it should have happened. But it could, very easily.
Also it’s not unprecedented to not match a bid. Sydney declined to match a bid from the Dogs on Josh Dunkley in the 2015 draft. Yes it’s rare but it happens.
History suggests it should happen more often. If Henry had been bid on at pick 5, should we have given up one of young or Serong for him? Of course not.
There has to be a point the price is considered too big.
I know we were keen on Warner - I don’t agree with never an option, as I can’t believe we reached like we did for Henry- the club definitely promised to take Henry- feel good NGA and all the plaudits that went with the narrative- but we should have passed - at the price the Blues put on him…
We stuffed up there, maybe a lot of hindsight - but he was never a top 10 pick - borderline in the top 20
Taylor
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I don't think I've seen a club not match a bid in the first round for a player they have priority access to, and I don't think I ever will.
The player Liam Henry would need to be at Carlton for our own supporters and everyone else in the footy world to be asking just what the hell Freo were thinking giving up a top ten selected player is so unremarkable that any outcome other than him nearly immediately getting three strikes would be a massive public relations nightmare for Freo.
I think the suggestion that a club would walk away from a player taken ten spots earlier after the work already put into them AND that they are getting them for a heavy discount is the most hindsight of hindsights.
Possible, yes. But this place would have torn down Cockburn if we said no thanks to the highest rated academy player we have ever had.
The player Liam Henry would need to be at Carlton for our own supporters and everyone else in the footy world to be asking just what the hell Freo were thinking giving up a top ten selected player is so unremarkable that any outcome other than him nearly immediately getting three strikes would be a massive public relations nightmare for Freo.
I think the suggestion that a club would walk away from a player taken ten spots earlier after the work already put into them AND that they are getting them for a heavy discount is the most hindsight of hindsights.
Possible, yes. But this place would have torn down Cockburn if we said no thanks to the highest rated academy player we have ever had.
0 guarantees that f2 gets you pick 30, it's way harder to trade into a draft than it is to trade out
F2 and 66 got us 2 picks in the 50s...
I don't know.
It's more a case of are we just settling (to pay hefty amounts) for a player we can get.
Warner maybe out of the reach this year... maybe even every other year... but I'd rather have that be our pitch we concentrate on, rather than divert for a player like Baker, who's going to be in the auxiliary crew and never a frontliner.
McIntosh? Are looking to pad out Peel's bench now or what?
I had a look to make sure there weren't any trades that could have got us in
Basically none except for one, brissy traded the swans that Chad Warner pick for late picks as they needed currency to match Coleman.
The only possible way we could have done that is to never match Henry and keep our junk picks but then we miss Freddy and tbh I'm not even sure if our junk picks would have been enough for brissy to match their academy, they would have been bloody close though
Basically it was never going to happen, it was our first NGA pick, 0 chance we turn it down, imagine how gutted everyone in the program would have been
So based on trades that happened we wouldn't have gotten in, no obviously we could have gone crazy and offered like an F1 or 2xf2 (if we had, don't think we did) or something else crazy but that's just so far out of what happened that I don't count it
Basically none except for one, brissy traded the swans that Chad Warner pick for late picks as they needed currency to match Coleman.
The only possible way we could have done that is to never match Henry and keep our junk picks but then we miss Freddy and tbh I'm not even sure if our junk picks would have been enough for brissy to match their academy, they would have been bloody close though
Basically it was never going to happen, it was our first NGA pick, 0 chance we turn it down, imagine how gutted everyone in the program would have been
So based on trades that happened we wouldn't have gotten in, no obviously we could have gone crazy and offered like an F1 or 2xf2 (if we had, don't think we did) or something else crazy but that's just so far out of what happened that I don't count it
Yeah bingo, it seemed to be a tough draft to trade into (follows the rules that it's much harder to trade in than trade out of a draft)
I wouldn't be opposed to trading out one of our 3 this year on draft night, if it slides us 15-20 spots and we get a decent F1 in but I understand it's hard for list managers to not take their player when they're available
At the end of the day we really can’t be complaining about a draft that has netted us 5 best 22 players, 3 of which have the potential to be top 10 players in the league.
Also I would hate to think about the scenario where Melbourne accept our offer for pick 3 and we end up with LJ but no young or serong
Also I would hate to think about the scenario where Melbourne accept our offer for pick 3 and we end up with LJ but no young or serong
Snuffaluphagus
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We’ve got 3 of the best 10 players from one of the best drafts of all time and another in the top 20 of that draft. Not getting Warner is just another #****carlton moment and not a reflection on the club in any way
That was my point though. We had 3 mins to come up with the trade, when it was unexpectedly thrust upon us by the super early Carlton bid.
Hence we made one of the most lopsided trades of a second rounder ever, and we were on the wrong end of it.
If you have enough time to get on the phones to a few people over the course of an hour it’s very doable to get a decent deal. An F2 plus pick 45 for 35 is very reasonable.
I expect to see it quite frequently actually in the future when the AFL actually reform the system and make teams pay a proper price for first round academy and F/s players.
Hypothetically let’s say Fremantle had the normal single first rounder this year in round 1 at say, pick 10, for arguments sake.
There’s a great young freo NGA key defender projected to go at pick 6.
But there a really tasty small forward projected at pick 10.
We don’t need another key defender but we are DESPERATE for an elite small forward.
The afl have just introduced a new rule that you have to match a bid with one pick within 10 picks of the bid, or they have removed the discount, or they have said you must use a pick in the same round to match. These are all rumoured reforms to the current process.
No more junk picks stockpiled to match bids like the old days.
We desperately need a small forward and we already have too many key defenders.
What do we do?
I think we could refuse the bid and take the player type we need at 10 in this instance.
Snuffaluphagus
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Aside from Adelaide taking McAsey and Sydney Stephen’s, don’t forget North trades out of the first round into 2020 after having the Serong pick originally…
Then they took Will Phillips at 3 who looks a total bust… jeez they have had some howlers at the draft too havent they.
A lot of people on here were mad keen on Stephens in 2019 I remember
wakojako
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Imagine if we trade for Warner, we would have 4 of the best 10!
Snuffaluphagus
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I’m telling ya, a deep dive into both teams rebuilds since 2016 would be interesting as **** (and extremely gratifying as a Freo supporter)
Not Henry Hindsight. He would get every single pick spot on perfect, every single time. In fact the further back in time the better he does. Never mind causality.
The only ones I’d have above our 3 is Tom Green, and maybe Matt Rowell. I’d also move Freddy into the top 20.
We get Warner this year I may just die of happiness tbh
As much as I hated that f2 trade and think we did get ripped, you have to assume that the club tried to set something up before the draft and that was the best we could get, unfortunately it seemed like a really well liked draft (suns trading a locked future pick 11 for 27 kind of shows this)
Essendon even traded 35 and an f2 to move 5 places upto 30 (they got 50 back too)
It just didn't seem possible to move up that draft very easily (clubs seem to have got this right, it's got claims to eventually be the GOAT draft)
We got extremely lucky that draft. Carlton had an in principle agreement with Adelaide that they would swap 9 and a future 2nd for 6, Adelaide reneged on the deal on draft night and asked for a future 1st instead, which pissed carlton off and took the deal off the table. Young would be at Carlton if Adelaide had stuck to the deal
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