Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Nunez]

I too took a snapshot of this. Got the other ones too for comparison:

View attachment 2044651View attachment 2044652View attachment 2044653View attachment 2044654View attachment 2044655

I guess it just goes to show you can use the data to tell you anything you want. If you want to listen to Hoyney, he will tell you our defensive profile is awful and needs work if we are contend. Whereas these stats makes it look like we are in pretty good shape.

The trick is in the sample size: Joey is using the full season whereas Hoyney is going off the last 6 weeks.

Pick your poison.

I'd say that makes ours even more impressive given our lack of wins at the start of the year.

 

[Elixuh]

Surprised no gws there. I’d have them squarely in the mix.

 

[Tom14]

I too took a snapshot of this. Got the other ones too for comparison:

View attachment 2044651View attachment 2044652View attachment 2044653View attachment 2044654View attachment 2044655

I guess it just goes to show you can use the data to tell you anything you want. If you want to listen to Hoyney, he will tell you our defensive profile is awful and needs work if we are contend. Whereas these stats makes it look like we are in pretty good shape.

The trick is in the sample size: Joey is using the full season whereas Hoyney is going off the last 6 weeks.

Pick your poison.

Elixuh Why wouldn't you put this in the beautiful stats thread?

I'd really like to know if Hoyney's rankings are on the basis of actual points against - or expected points against.

I can see why they would be on the basis of actual points against, as you clearly can't rank on the basis of expected points for as you are responsible for your own conversion.

But I do think our recent defensive stats are being made to look a little bit worse by oppo conversion comparative to what some other teams have faced. Adelaide were nearly 3 goals better than expected, St Kilda nearly 2 goals. Our other opponents were all very close to their expected score.

Clearly need to tidy up our transition defence and our scores per inside 50 against, but given we are #1 for inside 50 differential a lot of aspects of our defensive profile are working.

There's a trade off to our aggressive forward press to win the ball back high, and that is that if teams do get through there are opportunities out the back against us.

 

[Elixuh]

Elixuh Why wouldn't you put this in the beautiful stats thread?

I'd really like to know if Hoyney's rankings are on the basis of actual points against - or expected points against.

I can see why they would be on the basis of actual points against, as you clearly can't rank on the basis of expected points for as you are responsible for your own conversion.

But I do think our recent defensive stats are being made to look a little bit worse by oppo conversion comparative to what some other teams have faced. Adelaide were nearly 3 goals better than expected, St Kilda nearly 2 goals. Our other opponents were all very close to their expected score.

Clearly need to tidy up our transition defence and our scores per inside 50 against, but given we are #1 for inside 50 differential a lot of aspects of our defensive profile are working.

There's a trade off to our aggressive forward press to win the ball back high, and that is that if teams do get through there are opportunities out the back against us.

Nunez we got our first victim to having the same avatar!

 

[Elixuh]

Elixuh Why wouldn't you put this in the beautiful stats thread?

I'd really like to know if Hoyney's rankings are on the basis of actual points against - or expected points against.

I can see why they would be on the basis of actual points against, as you clearly can't rank on the basis of expected points for as you are responsible for your own conversion.

But I do think our recent defensive stats are being made to look a little bit worse by oppo conversion comparative to what some other teams have faced. Adelaide were nearly 3 goals better than expected, St Kilda nearly 2 goals. Our other opponents were all very close to their expected score.

Clearly need to tidy up our transition defence and our scores per inside 50 against, but given we are #1 for inside 50 differential a lot of aspects of our defensive profile are working.

There's a trade off to our aggressive forward press to win the ball back high, and that is that if teams do get through there are opportunities out the back against us.

I’ve watched a fair bit of the footy this season and using the eye test our defence has always looked significantly better overall than most teams, perhaps Sydney aside, when factoring in balancing attack and defence.

I tend to agree with the view that we seem happy to concede a few goals that we see every week…eg where the oppo move the ball on turnover like it’s a training drill…to better gear and balance the way we want to attack and score…so some of the goals we concede can make it look a bit flaky

 

[Tom14]

Nunez we got our first victim to having the same avatar!

I should have recognised the difference, your pic shows stewy's incredible he-man physique a bit more clearly.

 

[Nunez]

I should have recognised the difference, your pic shows stewy's incredible he-man physique a bit more clearly.

Excuse me.

 

[Tom14]

Expected score ladder after round 18 - #2 offence, #2 defence on xscore.



The Eagles were 2 goals better than their expected score.

 

[Elixuh]

Expected score ladder after round 18 - #2 offence, #2 defence on xscore.



The Eagles were 2 goals better than their expected score.

Our defence started to look really shaky with Starce and Payne out on top of the 3 ACL defenders + Answerth. Wouldn’t be surprised to see our defensive stats drop off a bit.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Our defence started to look really shaky with Starce and Payne out on top of the 3 ACL defenders + Answerth. Wouldn’t be surprised to see our defensive stats drop off a bit.

They are. If we look at recent weeks, we are:

• #13 for conceding shots at goal
• #14 for total points conceded
• #12 for conceding marks on a lead
• #16 for being able to rebound out of our defensive 50
• #18 for conceding scoring shots per inside 50 against
• #9 for conceding points from turnover

All that despite being ranked #5 for conceding inside 50s.

These are 7 of the 18 premiership metrics Champion Data track. They are defined as such where at least 10 of the last 12 premiers have been top 6 in each category.

Currently this profile is better than only West Coast, North and Richmond, and (just) worse than Carlton's which is copping it in the media at the moment.

 

[Elixuh]

They are. If we look at recent weeks, we are:

• #13 for conceding shots at goal
• #14 for total points conceded
• #12 for conceding marks on a lead
• #16 for being able to rebound out of our defensive 50
• #18 for conceding scoring shots per inside 50 against
• #9 for conceding points from turnover

All that despite being ranked #5 for conceding inside 50s.

These are 7 of the 18 premiership metrics Champion Data track. They are defined as such where at least 10 of the last 12 premiers have been top 6 in each category.

Currently this profile is better than only West Coast, North and Richmond, and (just) worse than Carlton's which is copping it in the media at the moment.

My worry is we are playing a fifth or sixth string defender, Lester’s form has tailed off, McKenna is horrendously out of form. I think they’re going to have to create an out of the box solution if Payne is out for 6 weeks or we will lose games based on where the defence is trending.

Harris can’t do it all.

 

[Nunez]

My worry is we are playing a fifth or sixth string defender, Lester’s form has tailed off, McKenna is horrendously out of form. I think they’re going to have to create an out of the box solution if Payne is out for 6 weeks or we will lose games based on where the defence is trending.

Harris can’t do it all.

I say **** it, let's just kick 130+ and cop the opposition scoring 100. Full ham attack time baby!

 

[Grasshopper17]

My worry is we are playing a fifth or sixth string defender, Lester’s form has tailed off, McKenna is horrendously out of form. I think they’re going to have to create an out of the box solution if Payne is out for 6 weeks or we will lose games based on where the defence is trending.

Harris can’t do it all.

Please do not mention McKenna in here... I'm worried I will derail the thread

 

[Grasshopper17]

I say **** it, let's just kick 130+ and cop the opposition scoring 100. Full ham attack time baby!

That you Blighty?

 

[Elixuh]

I say **** it, let's just kick 130+ and cop the opposition scoring 100. Full ham attack time baby!

lol this is actually the alternative I think. Full scorched earth mfker

 

[Nathan Barley]

My worry is we are playing a fifth or sixth string defender, Lester’s form has tailed off, McKenna is horrendously out of form. I think they’re going to have to create an out of the box solution if Payne is out for 6 weeks or we will lose games based on where the defence is trending.

Harris can’t do it all.

Yeah we've got McKenna, Zorko and Lester there who can't defend. Harris is average when not intercept marking.

Just carrying too many guys who can't play a defensive role and when teams run hard and shut down our run off half back really struggle to influence the game

McKenna needs to be aggressive with his run, not his kicking

 

[KissKiss]

Really its going to come down to how well our mids and forwards can keep their pressure up. Our defence is getting paper thin and going to need work up the ground to keep them in it

 

[Grasshopper17]

McKenna needs to be aggressive with his run, not his kicking

Yeah well he can be aggressive with his run in the VFL for a few weeks as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Yeah well he can be aggressive with his run in the VFL for a few weeks as far as I'm concerned.

Probably our last chance coming up to give him VFL time to find form and bring him back into the seniors

Hopefully Brain finally getting a full game will give them the confidence to do this

 

[twhowler]

Per the last Injury Report both Starc and Noah are available this week although would they bring Noah in immediately; Starc they would no doubt?

I wouldn't take Starce as a guaranteed in. It was a pretty bad hit and if they miss any milestones they tend to take another week.

If we want to stiffen the defence, it really should be McKenna out and Brain staying. I love Answerth as a lock-down but he has had a few weeks off and tends to come in a bit rusty especially with his kicking. Brain is fit and in relatively good form.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I wouldn't take Starce as a guaranteed in. It was a pretty bad hit and if they miss any milestones they tend to take another week.

If we want to stiffen the defence, it really should be McKenna out and Brain staying. I love Answerth as a lock-down but he has had a few weeks off and tends to come in a bit rusty especially with his kicking. Brain is fit and in relatively good form.

If Starce isn't right then Answerth comes in for McKenna. He's giving us so little in attack right now that we might as well go for the bloke who's actually prepared to defend and put his body on the line.

 

[twhowler]

If Starce isn't right then Answerth comes in for McKenna. He's giving us so little in attack right now that we might as well go for the bloke who's actually prepared to defend and put his body on the line.

i'd be happy with that. Answerth's kicking has improved BUT i wouldn't be too certain about him with the pill after a lay-off.

Brain's good disposal helps the overall mix i think. very sure with it. only had 10 poss but went at 100%

 

[Dalions]

 

[Grasshopper17]

As always, you can use stats to tell you whatever you like pretty much. According to Champion Data's premiership metrics, as of yesterday we are now officially in the premiership window:



This has come about because we have moved from #7 on turnovers differential to #6. Here is last week's chart:




So ostensibly we have gone from borderline window to in the window.

But have a look at that very bottom line: it's changed from 4.9 to 5.1 at the same time. That's because while our turnover differential has gone from #7 to #6, we've

• Moved from #1 to #2 for shots at goal conceded
• Moved from #4 to #6 for total points conceded
• Moved from #1 to #2 for marks on the lead conceded
• Moved from #14 to #15 for shots per inside 50 conceded
• Moved from #10 to #11 for opposition bounces (if you're thinking this is a weird stat to be a "premiership metric", I agree. Perhaps it's a measure of midfield defensive pressure/intent)

We've also gone from #4 to #3 for points from turnover differential, and from #3 to #2 for shots at goal differential.

So I guess the moral to the story is believe what you want. Just make sure you're well informed.

 

[M Malice]

Nathan Buckley sensational on The Couch tonight about the irrelevance of hit out stats, just get rid of that meaningless stat please.