Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Nathan Barley]

Thought this warranted an analysis.

Home scores this year:
85-86
72-92
37-63
79-45
163-44
126-106
86-81
97-86
79-77

That's 6 wins and 3 losses with a percentage of 121.2%.

Away scores this year:
70-93
112-42
82-60
59-113
90-90
75-100
114-71
152-73
106-93
93-65
124-39

That's 7.5 wins and 3.5 losses with a percentage of 128.4%.

So yes, looking at the scores we've actually performed better away than at home this season so far.

Quality of opposition?

Quick scan is probably even home and away

 

[Grasshopper17]

Quality of opposition?

Quick scan is probably even home and away

I actually reviewed this via my seedings model, which takes into account quality of opposition, and it was actually even more pronounced in favour of our away form.

So for simplicity I kept it out of the above analysis.

 

[Elixuh]

I actually reviewed this via my seedings model, which takes into account quality of opposition, and it was actually even more pronounced in favour of our away form.

So for simplicity I kept it out of the above analysis.

Can you breakdown your model. You had the Bulldogs as a top team when they looked like spuds and now they're probably equal favourites to win the flag. They called you a madman. I called you a witch. In different times you'd be in big trouble...

 

[M Malice]

I actually reviewed this via my seedings model, which takes into account quality of opposition, and it was actually even more pronounced in favour of our away form.

We can count our lucky starts the the Grand Final is at the MCG this year and not the Gabba.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Can you breakdown your model. You had the Bulldogs as a top team when they looked like spuds and now they're probably equal favourites to win the flag. They called you a madman. I called you a witch. In different times you'd be in big trouble...

View attachment 2071137

Detective BRAB already uncovered it as being fake so you're probably best going to him for further details on that

 

[KissKiss]

One-on-one? Good luck getting past this Lions marking machine

Harris Andrews has been almost impenetrable this season, conceding only two marks across 76 one-on-one contests

www.afl.com.au

Not the deepest analysis but Harris getting some love for his defensive stats

 

[Tom14]

One-on-one? Good luck getting past this Lions marking machine

Harris Andrews has been almost impenetrable this season, conceding only two marks across 76 one-on-one contests

www.afl.com.au

Not the deepest analysis but Harris getting some love for his defensive stats

Hmmmm no jacket Jacob weitering totally absent from the article in terms of intercept marks and intercept possessions.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Hmmmm no jacket Jacob weitering totally absent from the article in terms of intercept marks and intercept possessions.

He's listed in one of the tables.

 

[Tom14]

He's listed in one of the tables.

Yes for one on one loss percentage - which he’s always been good at. But I don’t think following Charlie Dixon around and shutting him out actually offers a heap of value to the blues.

Intercept marking and intercept possessions, he’s not doing as much as other top tier key defenders.

Thought this clip of Jordan Lewis from earlier this week was a good description of the issue with Carlton’s defence as a whole:

 

[BRAB]

Detective BRAB already uncovered it as being fake so you're probably best going to him for further details on that

I was just joking please stop getting angry at me

 

[Elixuh]

I was just joking please stop getting angry at me

Jokes hurt BRAB. Apologise to this good man and his model.

 

[BRAB]

Jokes hurt BRAB. Apologise to this good man and his model.

I only apologise to things that are real

 

[dlanod]

I only apologise to things that are real

And that's why I'm not apologising for the Lions killing the Suns' finals hopes.

 

[Dalions]

 

[M Malice]

IIRC only 1 Premier has been out of that window this century??

It would be good to see how that window is looking over the last 6 rounds or so, I'd assume we would still be right in it.

 

[Grasshopper17]

IIRC only 1 Premier has been out of that window this century??

It would be good to see how that window is looking over the last 6 rounds or so, I'd assume we would still be right in it.

My understanding is that all have been above the line, while 2 have been to the left of the window.

 

[Dalions]

My understanding is that all have been above the line, while 2 have been to the left of the window.

You mean the Saints still have a chance?

 

[Nathan Barley]

Daniher has now moved into first in the real Coleman, first for shots on goal

 

[Tom14]

Over 1.5 expected wins ahead of second place

 

[Grasshopper17]

How does this accord with your rankings Grasshopper17 - seems to be close IIRC ?

Yeah this is Max's baby really. He does it on feel basically. He usually makes a good fist of it and explains his rationale reasonably well, but like much human analysis it relies a bit much on inherent biases we all have, often unconsciously.

For example, one time he hinted at massively downgrading Brisbane after we lost to Freo in Perth in 2022, on the basis that "we got completely opened up defensively and the last quarter was an exhibition".

It wasn't until I (gently) pointed out to Max on Twitter that we actually won the last quarter AND won the game on expected score that he toned down his rhetoric in his power rankings and might have kept our ranking the same in the end.

So it's interesting, but as someone with a preference for a more data-driven, scientific method, I don't put too much store in it.

That said, my own method needs a bit of rework I think, as it probably doesn't prioritise current/recent form ahead of early-season form as well as it probably should.

So that is probably something I'll look at in the off season.

 

[Tom14]

Yeah this is Max's baby really. He does it on feel basically. He usually makes a good fist of it and explains his rationale reasonably well, but like much human analysis it relies a bit much on inherent biases we all have, often unconsciously.

For example, one time he hinted at massively downgrading Brisbane after we lost to Freo in Perth in 2022, on the basis that "we got completely opened up defensively and the last quarter was an exhibition".

It wasn't until I (gently) pointed out to Max on Twitter that we actually won the last quarter AND won the game on expected score that he toned down his rhetoric in his power rankings and might have kept our ranking the same in the end.

So it's interesting, but as someone with a preference for a more data-driven, scientific method, I don't put too much store in it.

That said, my own method needs a bit of rework I think, as it probably doesn't prioritise current/recent form ahead of early-season form as well as it probably should.

So that is probably something I'll look at in the off season.

Reckon Max is pretty limited by what he can publish on fox - they like this stuff for engagement, but if he got too into the weeds on advanced metrics it'd be seen as too boring. So as you say its a bit of that stuff, with some feeling and vibes pitched at a more general audience than you/I.

Poro Max already got so much crap from pies supporters by pointing out how lucky they got at times last year.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

 

[martinson]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

Good job we found out before finals.

 

[Tom14]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

Hate to pot Fish, and I know the afl website needs to take a broad focus - but there's no point in this analysis if it's not even going to look at expected scores.

Which I expect would make us look potentially even worse!

 

[Nathan Barley]

Hate to pot Fish, and I know the afl website needs to take a broad focus - but there's no point in this analysis if it's not even going to look at expected scores.

Which I expect would make us look potentially even worse!

Was thinking the same and after the dressing down I received after being negative about the roar deal I decided to just make fun

Of all the stats he has access to the only one he uses is goals scored per shot percentage?