What is going to happen?

[Grasshopper17]

There are a number of crunch games left in the season, not just the ones involving Brisbane, and with a fairly healthy number still involving two sides within the top 5, there is still a chance they could knock each other over and help Brisbane into a top 4 spot, or maybe, if they're extra extra lucky, top 2.

Port Adelaide - (5/0) 18 wins, 4 losses - 72 points
Hard to see anybody catching them now. If they were to fall over themselves now one could see them losing to Hawthorn this weekend (it will be their 4th week out of 5 on the road). They only just got over Melbourne last season at Footy Park, and Melbourne also beat them earlier this season. Then there's the Round 22 showdown. So if we're ultra optimistic Brisbane could still finish ahead of Port

West Coast - (5/0) 16 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses - 66 points
Could conceivably lose their last 5 - have not won away since the break. St Kilda pumped them in Melbourne last year, Adelaide go alright at Subi, Geelong kept them to 5 goals I think at the Cattery last season, Melbourne beat them over there last season, and it's about time Freo beat them as well. It ain't gonna happen though

Collingwood - (5/0) 16 wins, 6 losses - 64 points
Probably right up there with Port as the form team of the competition at the moment. The Brisbane game obviously looms as being critical, and the week after the play Adelaide at the MCG, who as we all know don't have any problems winning big games on the MCG. Sydney in Sydney will be an interesting test for them, as will the Essendon game in the last round if the sun comes out and it's a lovely late winter's day. It probably won't happen, but who knows

Sydney - (3/2) 15 wins, 7 losses - 60 points
Everybody pencils in their game against Sydney for a win, because on paper they look crap. That is one thing they are not, but they sure did give their supporters a scare on Sunday arvo, and they needed a serve from Roosy so maybe all is not going quite as smoothly as it was a little while ago. Adelaide should beat them, Hawthorn conceivably could beat them at the SCG if they reproduced their 'Gabba form. I've got them pencilled in to beat Brisbane at the moment (laugh if you want, but Sydney are no laughing matter as I've said). Collingwood should beat them, and if Melbourne fire up for the last game of the season at the MCG they could cause an upset. At the start of the season I tipped Sydney to finish 2nd (no joke ), and they may well go on and do so, but just for the moment, the jury is still out on the Swans.

Brisbane - (3/2) 13 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses - 54 points
I almost don't have to do one for Brisbane because we probably know it off by heart by now. But the Kangaroos are a real threat, Collingwood will be a massive ask, Sydney a threat as well. And in Round 22 they play under the roof. Make of that what you will. But if they are fair dinkum they will beat Sydney and on my reckoning make the top 4.

Adelaide - (2/3) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
A really tough draw. Like I have said it's always dangerous to write off the Swans, West Coast probably go in favourites at Subiaco, Collingwood at the MCG will be very tough, and then the showdown in the last round.

Essendon - (4/1) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
You never quite know with Richmond, and you don't totally discount Freo against them even in Melbourne, but they mightn't hit a brick wall until Round 22 when they play Collingwood.

Fremantle - (3/2) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
A trip to the MCG to play the Roos next week might find them out of their depth, ditto Essendon at Docklands 2 weeks later, and on current form they won't pose the Eagles any problems in the derby.

So that's the 8 as I see it at the end of 22 rounds. Missing out I think will be Hawthorn (44) and the Kangaroos (42). Forget the rest.

Here are the main pivotal games then as I see them in the run home (my expected winner in bold) -

Adelaide v Sydney
Collingwood v Brisbane
West Coast v Adelaide
Collingwood v Adelaide
Brisbane v Sydney
Essendon v Fremantle
Sydney v Collingwood
Collingwood v Essendon
West Coast v Fremantle
Port Adelaide v Adelaide

So obviously changing the Brisbane v Sydney game switches Brisbane to 4th and Sydney to 5th. Provided we all barrack hard for the Crows this Sunday and hope they get across the line. Sydney beats Adelaide and suddenly Brisbane are faced with the prospect of also beating Collingwood, and then having to settle for 3rd, and a trip to Subiaco. That OR losing to Collingwood and hoping that Collingwood lose to BOTH Sydney and Essendon, in which case Brisbane will squeeze into 4th, almost by default.

Note that I have not even considering the possibility of 2nd yet. Winning every game will still leave Brisbane a game behind West Coast. The Lions will then be relying on West Coast losing to definitely Fremantle, and one of St Kilda, Adelaide, Geelong and Melbourne. Or Freo giving West Coast a nice old bath and Brisbane winning their last 5 games all by big margins, and so sneaking into 2nd on percentage. But for the moment that is pie in the sky stuff.

On the flipside there is also the possibility of Adelaide, Fremantle or even Essendon getting the biggest roll on, while Brisbane continue to struggle, in which case they could fall as low as 8th. I honestly can't see the Lions missing the finals though - they really only need one more win, and surely they could do THAT!

By the way it didn't take me all day to figure this out go here it's really cool. Making Port Adelaide and West Coast lose all their games is funny

So yeah I'd be interested in everybody's thoughts on what they think will happen. Will Brisbane beat Collingwood and Sydney? Will Sydney and Essendon beat Collingwood? How long before SB gets banned from the Port board?

 

[kimp]

I think we'll beat Sydney more concerned about the Kangaroos at this stage. I agree though that Collingwood will be our toughest task.

I have more confidence in the Crows though and I wouldn't be surprised if they won their derby and against West Coast.

 

[lioness]

I definitely agree that the Collingwood match stands out as one of our biggest challenges, but there are a few. The Kangaroos are amazing in the way that even if they are getting flogged they just keep on coming, and if we aren't totally switched on then they could very easily get us. I think the Swans too have been badly underrated this season, I do think they could beat Collingwood but I am not so sure Essendon could.

Back to us for a minute, as long as the boys are focussed and switched on completely and come out playing their best then we have heaps to look forward to. I guess the team's destiny is pretty much in their own hands. Or should that be minds.

 

[5AASUX]

If Brisbane finish in 5th position, they SHOULD get a home final in the first week of the finals. But, hopefully they finish second, so that Port can go over to the Gabba and get belted, just like last year - good old memories, hopefully it's dejavu.

If Brisbane make the Grand Final, they WILL win, no matter the opposition. Even if Port do make the Grand Final, they should lose, they crack under pressure - there is plenty of evidence of that!!!!

A good summary rchowell, very well thought out!!!! If Brisbane are serious they WILL beat Collingwood. Collingwood are by no means unbeatable, they are a team of players who bust their guts out, I do admire them for that. But Brisbane have two things, one the players are well drilled and try extremely hard but also have the 'polish' that Malthouse was talking about.

 

[SpecialBruce]

Originally posted by 5AASUX
If Brisbane finish in 5th position, they SHOULD get a home final in the first week of the finals. But, hopefully they finish second, so that Port can go over to the Gabba and get belted, just like last year - good old memories, hopefully it's dejavu.

If Brisbane make the Grand Final, they WILL win, no matter the opposition. Even if Port do make the Grand Final, they should lose, they crack under pressure - there is plenty of evidence of that!!!!

A good summary rchowell, very well thought out!!!! If Brisbane are serious they WILL beat Collingwood. Collingwood are by no means unbeatable, they are a team of players who bust their guts out, I do admire them for that. But Brisbane have two things, one the players are well drilled and try extremely hard but also have the 'polish' that Malthouse was talking about.

Collingwood will most likely be without Prestigiacomo, Cloke, Holland, so that would work in our favour.

Good summary rchowell. I'm not game enough to predict what will happen in the next 5 weeks with us. Last time I predicted what would happen in the next 3, we only won one of them.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Originally posted by lioness22
as long as the boys are focussed and switched on completely and come out playing their best then we have heaps to look forward to. I guess the team's destiny is pretty much in their own hands. Or should that be minds.

Absolutely! Agree with all of that 100%! Well summed up.

Originally posted by 5AASUX
If Brisbane make the Grand Final, they WILL win, no matter the opposition.

I actually agree with that as well. One thing - if Brisbane do make the big one I don't think they'll do it by limping in like Essendon did in 2001. They will be fit and raring to go, more like THEY were in 2001.

Originally posted by 5AASUX
If Brisbane are serious they WILL beat Collingwood.

For sure. Win that and I think you'll see a few people start jumping back on the bandwagon. I would be more confident though if this game was in Round 22 and not Round 19.

Originally posted by SpecialBruce
Collingwood will most likely be without Prestigiacomo, Cloke, Holland, so that would work in our favour.

Presti's out for 3 weeks (although you never know with Collingwood ), it says Cloke's up for a test this week so he will probably play next week and the Holland incident wasn't picked up on the video! Clement is another one, it says he's still out for another week so he may well play against Brisbane.

While I'm on injuries Glen Archer has been listed as "available" so we'll assume he's in, David King has to be tested for his knee, but he'll probably play and kick some more of those freaky 60 metre soccer goals!

 

[CarterS]

If we beat Collingwood no matter how narrowly I think that will give us the momentum and confidence to regain form. as was said, if we are fair dinkum we will account for Sydney and the rest of the games without too much trouble.

Collingwood is the next one to look forward to though.

 

[SpecialBruce]

Originally posted by CarterS
If we beat Collingwood no matter how narrowly I think that will give us the momentum and confidence to regain form. as was said, if we are fair dinkum we will account for Sydney and the rest of the games without too much trouble.

Collingwood is the next one to look forward to though.

I agree. If we overcome Collingwood, psychologically, the players will feel better about themselves and will have confidence come into finals. Considering it's in Melbourne and Collingwood are a true top 4 chance.

 

[luthor]

Originally posted by SpecialBruce
I agree. If we overcome Collingwood, psychologically, the players will feel better about themselves and will have confidence come into finals. Considering it's in Melbourne and Collingwood are a true top 4 chance.

I disagree.

The most important thing for the club RIGHT NOW is to focus all its energies on beating the Roos this week-end.

If we drop this one, we can forget about the Collingwood game and all the other so called "crunch" games between the other clubs.

As trite and hackneyed as it sounds, we really do need to take it one game at a time from hereon in.

Here's a point .

Remember before the Essendon game , Matthews was quoted in the press as mentioning (for the FIRST time this season) the "Threeepeat" word to the players????

As much as I respect Matthews, I believe that was a mistake.

Matthew's stated philosophy since 1999 has been

1) win enough games to qualify for the 8 as soon as possible

THEN

2) keep winning with the objective of qualifying in the top 6

THEN

3) once you have achieved that objective, aim for top 4

THEN

4) top 2 next priority

THEN

5) Minor Premiership is a bonus.

Thowing in the "Threepeat" card as early as Round 16, I believe was a huge gamble, ESPECIALLY considering the LACK of playing personnel we had at that point.

I have been one who has regularly and consistently flown the flag of remaining positive and keeping the faith.

What concerns me right now is that, after 2 narrow and heartbreaking losses in a row, that the playing group has the collective will to put aside the long term, and focus on the short term.

Especially as the coach let it be publicly known that they "Woudn't have the chance EVER again to win 3 in a row"

Boys and girls, let's face it...at this point in time we have 10 and a half wins. That's not enough to even make the eight, much less the 6, 4 or 2.

Let's forget about what the others are doing and so called "crunch" games between other sides that we have no control over whatsoever.

As far as I am concerned, the biggest "crunch" game this season is Lions v Kangaroos this Saturday night.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I totally agree. I was just putting up the thread just because I was interested in all the various possibilities and I was sure there were others who would be as well. But we also know the Kangaroos are going to put up a massive fight this Saturday night, as they always do, and Brisbane will have to be on their game. We all know they are good enough to beat the Kangaroos, we saw as much against Port. But now they have to make it count by turning decent form into 4 points.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Well well well a week is a long time in football! The fact of the matter is now that if Brisbane win their last 4 games and even just one or two other results falls their way, the Lions will finish 2nd. I quite like the thought of that However, all of the top seven teams still have their destiny in their own hands.

Port Adelaide - (4/0) 18 wins, 4 losses - 72 points
Port have pretty much sewn up the minor premiership now, all thanks to that Jade Rawlings It's blokes like him that gives us Tasmanians a bad name! The Power would have to lose to Adelaide and Melbourne to see them lose top spot, and then fall over against Richmond for Brisbane to move past them. This week their game against Carlton will be a no contest, but if they don't win by at least 8 goals, I think there will be evidence that the slide is on again down at Alberton.

Collingwood - (4/0) 16 wins, 6 losses - 64 points
Four big games for the Pies. All very winnable, all very loseable. Brisbane, Adelaide and Essendon in Melbourne, Sydney at Stadium Australia.

West Coast - (3/1) 14 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses - 58 points
Question marks hanging over the Eagles now, but they could just as easily prove everyone wrong by belting Adelaide this week. After that they play Geelong in Melbourne, followed up by home games against Melbourne and Freo, and while they are probably still favourites in all three of those, as we all saw yesterday nothing in footy is a given. Well done Sainters!!!

Brisbane - (3/1) 14 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses - 58 points
The next two weeks will play a massive role in determining where the Lions finish on the ladder. I have revised my forecast to have Brisbane beating Sydney, based on their 9 goal win on Saturday night playing reasonably poorly. Sydney travel well though as evidenced by yesterday, and Collingwood at the MCG is probably Brisbane's biggest challenge of the season to date.

Adelaide - (2/2) 14 wins, 8 losses - 56 points
Got over a (self inflicted) hurdle yesterday, but could still trip up against the Eagles, Collingwood and Port Adelaide. But they are all just as winnable if they are on their game.

Sydney - (2/2) 14 wins, 8 losses - 56 points
Hawthorn are running out of gas but could upset the Swans at the SCG if Sydney go in at all complacent. Tough but winnable games coming up against Brisbane (away) and Collingwood (at home), before travelling to play the Demons in what could be a contest if the "other" Melbourne show up.

Essendon - (3/1) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
Their last two matches have left me wondering how on earth they beat Brisbane, West Coast and Collingwood, but with an easy run home they should get away with that sort of form for another few weeks. The Bulldogs may surprise though, as might Richmond and Fremantle (in Melbourne).

Fremantle - (2/2) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
Should beat the Bulldogs in Perth even though the Dogs have the best record of all non Western Australian teams at Subiaco this year! Will run into a fired up Kangaroos team and may find life hard against Essendon in a couple of weeks. If things go horribly wrong and results don't fall their way they may yet find themselves having to win the derby in Round 22 to make the finals.

Based on yesterday I've changed my mind a bit about the Saints as well. They have been inconsistent yes, but on yesterday's showing they really should beat Richmond, Carlton, the Bulldogs and Geelong. That would take them to 48 points, so should Essendon or Fremantle stop completely, they could be a wild card in the finals equation. They have a woeful percentage though, so Freo would have to lose their last 4 or Essendon 3 of their last 4 for the Saints to make it. I can't see this happening. I reckon Hawthorn will finish up with 44 and the Kangaroos 42 to finish 10th and 11th respectively.

Big games over the next 4 weeks -

Collingwood v Brisbane
West Coast v Adelaide
Collingwood v Adelaide
Brisbane v Sydney
Essendon v Fremantle
Sydney v Collingwood
Collingwood v Essendon
West Coast v Fremantle
Port Adelaide v Adelaide

All sorts of scenarios here though. Brisbane beat Collingwood and suddenly they are 2nd (based on all the other predictions), although West Coast have a very winnable game against Adelaide so even if that happens it could yet become a race for % between the Eagles and the Lions. I strongly suggest we barrack for the Crows on Saturday arvo! If Collingwood win on Saturday though the game at Subiaco becomes fairly immaterial so far as Brisbane are concerned - if all the other predictions pan out they will finish 4th regardless of the result. Unless of course Brisbane's % somehow gets ahead of West Coast's, and after the Eagles' % went down by only 3 points after losing by 10 goals, it mightn't be too easy.

The big game is looming as being Brisbane v Sydney. If Brisbane lose that they will NOT make the top 4, even if they beat Collingwood (they will finish equal with West Coast but behind on %). Lose to both Sydney and Collingwood and they are right back in 6th. In some ways though the most exciting prospect is that which I have forecasted. Brisbane finish 4th and travel to play Port, while Collingwood hosts West Coast in the first week of the finals. Collingwood will beat West Coast, which would mean that whoever won out of Port and Brisbane would host a preliminary final in their home state. Nothing is ever a given when you play away of course, but at least that way their destiny is completely in their own hands.

On the other hand if Brisbane beat Collingwood this weekend, then they could host Collingwood at the 'Gabba and that would be a very tough game, while West Coast would play Port Adelaide in Adelaide. This would mean that even if the Lions beat Collingwood they would be forced to play a home preliminary final at the MCG. Ideally Brisbane would finish 2nd, Collingwood would finish 4th, go over there and beat Port again! But, unless there are fluctuations in % among them, Adelaide and Sydney, Collingwood will not finish 4th. At the end of the day though, Brisbane will be best served by forgetting about all the things outside their control, getting out on the paddock, playing great footy and winning their next four games. You never know what is going to happen - we only have to look at last season when it looked like Brisbane would have to play a prelim final at the MCG.

 

[luthor]

Whichever way you look at it, The Saints knocking over WCE yesterday was a HUGE bonus for us.

An added bonus was the hiding they gave them, that has reduced the difference in percentage from 7.2% before this round to just 3.0% NOW.

The Eagles are starting to look a little fragile what with the injuries to Gardiner and other important personnel.

It's conceivable that we may NOT now have to win more games than them in the remaining 4 Rounds, to actually finish in front of them on the ladder.

IF they cop another hiding and we only lose one more match by a skinny margin, it's possible for us to finish in front of them.

It may, in any case all become irrelevant IF we can knock over the Pies

 

[SpecialBruce]

I don't give a **** where we finish to be honest.

We finish out of the top 4, the premiership will be sweeter.

However with that said, these are the top 4's that I'd like.

Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Adelaide
Collingwood

Look familiar? Same results.

Or

Port Adelaide
Adelaide
Collingwood
Brisbane

I'd back us to beat Port and Collingwood to beat Adelaide, giving us the home prelim.

Or

Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Collingwood
Adelaide

I'd back us beating Collingwood and I'd back Adelaide beating Port.

Or

Port Adelaide
Sydney
Adelaide
Brisbane

This one I would like best. We would beat Port at FP. I wouldn't give a **** who won out of Adelaide and Sydney.

If we lose to Port, chances are we'll play Sydney at the MCG in the prelim final. Not a bad scenario.

In conclusion, if we are to grab that home prelim, we need to bank on Adelaide, Collingwood or us playing Poor Power in the first week of the finals. With that said, if we are to play Poor Power in the first week of the finals and we get up, we need a Victorian team ahead of us on the ladder to win. That game will be at the MCG (as its a victorian team) and ours at the Gabba.

If we finish higher than fourth and West Coast or Sydney play Port in the first week of the finals, we can say Good-bye to that home prelim. Which may not be a bad result depending on who we play at the MCG.

It starts this week V Collingwood. If we overcome Collingwood, grabbing second on the ladder looks more and more likely. But if we can't finish 2nd, we aim for 4th.

I would not want to be playing Poor Power in the Prelim final over there. i would much rather see us there in the Quarters.

It would be sweeter beating them over there in the Prelim though.

 

[luthor]

There's something else familiar about the way Port are finishing their season this year.

They beat up on the weaker sides and fall in by skinny margins against the better sides.

In 2002, Poulton kicked a goal after the siren to get them out of jail against the Swans, after Hall had kicked what looked like the winning goal with 20 seconds left on the clock.

They also knocked us off in the last minute at Football Park/Aami Stadium in Round 22 to pinch the Minor Premiership from us.

I'm sure they also survived against the Pies earlier in the season when Rocca missed a set shot after the siren.

I think there was at least one more game that they won by under a goal in 2002.

Now in 2003, they once again pip us at the post and then back up the next week by stealing the game against the Hawks.

Looks to be a similar pattern to 2003.

No matter how much Poor try to downplay it, they have a serious chocking record once the really big stuff comes around.

I reckon they are specials to blow their first home final again this year so I have absolutely no fear of taking them on in that game.

They are living certainties for the minor Premiership, so as far as I am concerned, 4th spot is the place to be.

 

[SpecialBruce]

Originally posted by luthor
There's something else familiar about the way Port are finishing their season this year.

They beat up on the weaker sides and fall in by skinny margins against the better sides.

In 2002, Poulton kicked a goal after the siren to get them out of jail against the Swans, after Hall had kicked what looked like the winning goal with 20 seconds left on the clock.

They also knocked us off in the last minute at Football Park/Aami Stadium in Round 22 to pinch the Minor Premiership from us.

I'm sure they also survived against the Pies earlier in the season when Rocca missed a set shot after the siren.

I think there was at least one more game that they won by under a goal in 2002.

Now in 2003, they once again pip us at the post and then back up the next week by stealing the game against the Hawks.

Looks to be a similar pattern to 2003.

No matter how much Poor try to downplay it, they have a serious chocking record once the really big stuff comes around.

I reckon they are specials to blow their first home final again this year so I have absolutely no fear of taking them on in that game.

They are living certainties for the minor Premiership, so as far as I am concerned, 4th spot is the place to be.

You're onto something there.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Originally posted by SpecialBruce
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Collingwood
Adelaide

I'd back us beating Collingwood and I'd back Adelaide beating Port.

Here's something out of left field for you. Given that the showdowns over there are pretty much built up like grand finals, I wonder if Port being drawn to play Adelaide in the first week would actually help the Power. The showdowns get hyped up so much that you almost couldn't possibly hype them up any more, and on top of that Port have a sensational record over Adelaide in recent times (in particular winning the close ones). Having met the previous week as well, maybe this 'familiarity' would actually help the Power concentrate moreso on just playing their game and not worrying about the pressure of playing in a final.

 

[luthor]

Or the reverse could apply, as it did in 2002.

Port threw everything into beating us in Round 22 to win the Minor Premiership.

They carried on after that game as though winning the Flag was a formality. Then they came out flat against the Pies and blew the really important game.

So WE got the home prelim and the easy route to the GF while they had to pull all stops out to beat an undermanned Bombers side just for the privelege of getting absolutely towelled by US in a Prelim at the Gabba.

This is the ideal scenario in 2003 IMHO:-

Port pull out all stops to JUST hold off the Crows in Round 22, thereby once again sealing the Minor Premiership, crowning themselves kings of Adelaide, Mark Williams gloating about how good they are and the Football world proclaiming them the next champs.

We somehow scrape into 4th spot and go over to play the "invincible" Port in Adelaide in the first week of the Finals....



.............


the rest of the script is easy.

 

[Grasshopper17]

All of a sudden there doesn't look like there'll be a lot of scraping going on...

For anyone who's had their head under a rock for the last 4 days we're all hoping now that Collingwood can knock off Adelaide at the phone dome on Friday night, and if they can't do it then we will have to hope (heaven forbid) that Port do the job in Round 22.

Apart from that it's up to the Lions to maintain their winning ways after passing their biggest test on Saturday, and then hoping for Collingwood or Adelaide to fall into 4th spot. Adelaide 3rd and Collingwood 4th is currently the most likely scenario, which would be the same as last year. More to the point - if Brisbane finish 2nd and Collingwood finish 4th Adelaide will DEFINITELY finish 3rd. There is no other mathematical possibility.

Collingwood finishing 3rd and Adelaide 4th is also a distinct possibility, but strangely enough this is less likely than West Coast finishing 3rd ahead of Adelaide in 4th. The only other team who can possibly finish 3rd if Adelaide finish 4th is Fremantle, and this is a relatively small possibility compared to the others already mentioned. In any case, for either of the WA teams to fill 3rd spot, they not only have to win all of their last 3 games (West Coast travel to Geelong, Freo travel to the dome to play Essendon, and then there's the derby), they also have to have Adelaide lose to BOTH Collingwood AND Port.

Of course all that is assuming Brisbane win all of their last 3 games, and if they play as they did on Saturday this will not be a problem. As far as I can see the obstacles to the premiership have been falling every week, but the ones that still remain by my reckoning are -

5. An MCG Preliminary Final - Not so much concerned about the result as much as the travel factor, with a Grand Final coming up the next week.

4. An MCG Preliminary Final against Collingwood or Essendon - Once again the travel factor would be an issue, but so would the result. Obviously after Saturday's game there is no doubting the Lions on centre stage, but there's always a lingering doubt in the back of my mind. As we've seen before, finals are a different kettle of fish.

3. A Football Park Qualifying Final against Adelaide - Which is what will happen if both the Crows and the Lions keep on winning. If memory serves me correct Adelaide are 2-0 in finals over there, and with probably close to 50,000 Crows there I think this game would be very tough. Naturally Brisbane would have the double chance to fall back on, but the problem is that it would lead to...

2. A Football Park Preliminary Final - Against Port Adelaide, having got over their first hurdle in week 1, and fresh from the week's rest. Again I would be concerned about the travel factor, but I would be more concerned about the result.

Now all those aren't ideal situations, but there is one massive factor that could either completely override those problems, or allow them to become reality -

1. Brisbane

We've now seen that they are definitely good enough (in my opinion better than they were last year and the year before), even with an injury list. The only thing stopping them now, is their collective mindset.

So yeah there are all sorts of scenarios, but this is how I see all the contenders -

Port Adelaide - (2/1) 17 wins, 5 losses - 68 points
Having sewn up top spot, Port might get a bit of a rude awakening in Showdown XIV, and Adelaide will probably have a lot more to play for as well.

Adelaide - (3/0) 16 wins, 6 losses - 64 points
Been there, done that, and that experience is gradually coming to the fore as they reach their peak in time for a run at the title. Here's an interesting one though - if Collingwood were to beat Adelaide and other results fell their way, would the Crows "blood a few youngsters on centre stage" (read "throw") the Round 22 Showdown, in an attempt to get a home final in week 1 thanks to Port?

Brisbane - (3/0) 15 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses - 62 points
See above

West Coast - (3/0) 14 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses - 58 points
The Eagles are having a form slump of near chronic proportions, and the only thing that could save them is that they have 3 fairly easy games to come. There's a lot of people in the media saying they'll lose to Geelong and Fremantle, but I'm not quite sure just yet. After what they did to Brisbane I am not prepared to write them off so easily.

Collingwood - (2/1) 14 wins, 8 losses - 56 points
Not a bad side despite Saturday's game, but will have to play the full four quarters against Adelaide, and then blockbusters against Sydney at Stadium Australia and then Essendon on a Friday night. If they beat Adelaide then obviously they go ahead of West Coast and into the top 4.

Sydney - (1/2) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
On current form a tough ask this week, but a very winnable game against Collingwood, before going to Melbourne to play the Dees. Like West Coast they are also having a bit of a downturn in form, only not quite as chronic.

Essendon - (2/1) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
Getting a bit of a reputation as the dark horse come finals. If things go their way they could yet sneak into the top 4, which would be incredible given they only finished 5th last year, and I think we all thought they'd be worse this year (and for most of the year they have been!). Collingwood in Round 22 could be a litmus test for both sides.

Fremantle - (1/2) 13 wins, 9 losses - 52 points
Fantastic win on Sunday under the circumstances, but I'm not quite jumping on the Freo bandwagon just yet. I thought they'd beat North by 3 or 4 goals, and over the past two months or so their form has probably fallen off even more than West Coast's. Will get their lucky 13th win this weekend, are an outside chance to beat Essendon next week at the Dome (I would like their chances better at the MCG), before the Round 22 derby, which could be a battle for a top 4 spot, a home final, or both!

For the record, Hawthorn 48, St Kilda 48, Kangaroos 42.

That's what I reckon anyway. What does everybody else think? Who would you rather have Brisbane play in week 1 of the finals? Fremantle? West Coast? Collingwood? Adelaide? Adelaide in Adelaide o)? Who's the better chance of knocking off Port in week 1? Adelaide, Collingwood, or somebody else? Will any teams from positions 5 to 8 be able to cause any damage, and if so, where, when, and against who?

 

[lioness]

Well last time I posted on here, I saw Collingwood as our biggest challenge, and also the Kangaroos I thought might be dangerous, but we kind of swept both of them aside didn't we.

I do think, even though our boys seem to have the confidence and form returning at just the right time, and despite Sydney's pretty ordinary form last week against the Hawks (because they did make a bit of a comeback) that we shouldn't take them lightly. Hopefully we can produce a first quarter like last week and get a real advantage early, and then go on from there.

Hmmmmm who would I like the Lions to play in the first week of the finals? If current form stayed the same, I would say the Eagles, possibly Collingwood but really, I don't think that come finals time there will be ANY easy wins. All the sides in the 8 could beat us if they played in top form, so it's hard to say.

And again, going on current form I think Adelaide would be the team to knock off Port in the first week of the finals. I'm still reserving my judgement on Port, I feel like they've dropped off a little over the last couple of weeks, just a personal opinion there.

All I really hope is that our own form keeps going so good.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Originally posted by lioness22
And again, going on current form I think Adelaide would be the team to knock off Port in the first week of the finals. I'm still reserving my judgement on Port, I feel like they've dropped off a little over the last couple of weeks, just a personal opinion there.

I agree with you. Nice to know I'm not alone! I tipped Port to beat Brisbane by about 5 goals, similar against Hawthorn, and I thought they'd beat Carlton by 9-10 goals. So yeah I reckon they've dropped off a bit as well, which is exactly what happened to them at around this time last year, after peaking just after the mid season break. For the record I reckon they'll beat Melbourne this week by 7-8 goals. Let's see how I go