Conspiracy Theory The Russia-Ukraine War

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Dude, that survey clearly states that 31 percent of respondents surveyed in Donbas wanted independence as a separate autonomous region in Ukraine, another 18 percent wanted to join Russia outright, and 27 percent wanted to join Russia, but with autonomy.

Only 24 percent favored remaining part of Ukraine without autonomy.

45 percent of people surveyed wanted to join Russia in some form or another, 31 percent wanted autonomy (but to remain Ukrainian) and only 24 percent wanted to remain part of Ukraine without autonomy.

That supports my argument, and if anything, it makes the two Referendums in 2014 and even the 2022 referendum look more legit.

Even IF Ukraine can somehow breach Russian minefields and trenches, covered by a shitload of rocket artillery in an offensive (conducted without any air power) - and they got absolutely smashed last time they tried this - and somehow pushed Russia back across the Russian border, they still have the issue that the annexed oblasts overwhelmingly don't want to remain part of Ukraine without some form of autonomy, and nearly half of the people that live there flat out want to join Russia.

Even of those that do want to remain part of Ukraine, they're living in cities where nearly half the population want to join Russia, who they probably ******* despise right now thanks to the invasion and annexation.

At a bare minimum that's an insurgency. Almost certainly it ends like things did in Yugoslavia or what happened to Germans living in Eastern Europe at the end of WW2:



Flight and expulsion of Germans (1944–1950) - Wikipedia

If European history is anything to go by, it likely ends with ethnic cleansing.
Does that not apply both ways - if Eastern Ukraine remains in Russian hands, Russia then has sizeable pro-Ukrainian insurgency on their hands, resulting with (more) ethnic cleansing?
 

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Dude, that survey clearly states that 31 percent of respondents surveyed in Donbas wanted independence as a separate autonomous region in Ukraine, another 18 percent wanted to join Russia outright, and 27 percent wanted to join Russia, but with autonomy.

Only 24 percent favored remaining part of Ukraine without autonomy.

45 percent of people surveyed wanted to join Russia in some form or another, 31 percent wanted autonomy (but to remain Ukrainian) and only 24 percent wanted to remain part of Ukraine without autonomy.

That supports my argument, and if anything, it makes the two Referendums in 2014 and even the 2022 referendum look more legit.

Even IF Ukraine can somehow breach Russian minefields and trenches, covered by a shitload of rocket artillery in an offensive (conducted without any air power) - and they got absolutely smashed last time they tried this - and somehow pushed Russia back across the Russian border, they still have the issue that the annexed oblasts overwhelmingly don't want to remain part of Ukraine without some form of autonomy, and nearly half of the people that live there flat out want to join Russia.

Even of those that do want to remain part of Ukraine, they're living in cities where nearly half the population want to join Russia, who they probably ******* despise right now thanks to the invasion and annexation.

At a bare minimum that's an insurgency. Almost certainly it ends like things did in Yugoslavia or what happened to Germans living in Eastern Europe at the end of WW2:



Flight and expulsion of Germans (1944–1950) - Wikipedia

If European history is anything to go by, it likely ends with ethnic cleansing.

This is absolute nonsense. Going by your logic Zelensky is one of those ethnic speaking Russians that wants to join Russia.


Nobody that lives in DPR/LPR really wants the Russians around. They've wrecked the place and turned it into a hellhole. Just like Maruipol. Russia has killed off anyone who tries to resist their occupation. Anyone left doesn't really want the Russians around - they've got no choice but to toe the line or be tortured / killed.



All independent surveys of actual Donbas residents - including the ones forcibly relocated within Ukraine - show that the average resident does not want to be part of Russia.


Also so what if there are residents who supposedly want to be part of Russia. It's a free world - they were around before the invasion living in peace and will be after the invasion. Not like in occupied Ukraine where anyone who dares to wear Ukranian colors is subject to torture and/or death. It is notable that you bring up possible pro Russian sentiment as more of an issue than actual Ukranians in Donbass who suffer oppression and torture for daring to be Ukranian in Ukraine.

Moreover, if there was actually any real intent of being part of Russia there would be no need for Russians to invade and militarily occupy the place. Real sentiment for being part of Russia would mean it would happen politically eventually.


Second point - Ukraine won't be getting back territory by force. Ukraine gets territory back when the cost to Russia of maintain an occupation that brings it no tangible benefit unsustainably high. Then, Russia will gradually withdraw. Or, when Putin is executed / sent to a gulag. In any normal circumstance the losses incurred by Russia would see pretty much any state withdraw and call it a day. Make no mistake, the only thing sustaining this war is Putin and his deluded visions of grandeur.
 
This is absolute nonsense. Going by your logic Zelensky is one of those ethnic speaking Russians that wants to join Russia.

Literally 45 percent of people surveyed in Donbas want to join Russia.

In an independent survey, published in the Guardian, and linked to above.

Of the 55 percent that don't want to join Russia, half of them want autonomous status within Ukraine.

You're full of s**t mate.

Nobody that lives in DPR/LPR really wants the Russians around.

Oh.

So the survey was bogus and the Guardian is 'in on it'? The 2014 Referendum was bogus as well? The fact that nearly half of all people in Donbas are literally ethnic Russians who speak Russian and hold Russian passports and want to join Russia also is bogus?

You can be as critical of Putin all you want. He's repeating what Hitler did in the Sudetenland in the lead up to WW2. Annexing parts of a neighboring country (Czech Republic), that contained mostly ethnic Germans, who speak German and incorporating them into the German State.

But can you at least acknowledge the reality of the situation in the East? Those annexed Oblasts have a significant number of ethnic Russians (likely a majority at present), who speak Russian and want to join Russia.
 
Literally 45 percent of people surveyed in Donbas want to join Russia.

In an independent survey, published in the Guardian, and linked to above.

Of the 55 percent that don't want to join Russia, half of them want autonomous status within Ukraine.

You're full of s**t mate.



Oh.

So the survey was bogus and the Guardian is 'in on it'? The 2014 Referendum was bogus as well? The fact that nearly half of all people in Donbas are literally ethnic Russians who speak Russian and hold Russian passports and want to join Russia also is bogus?

You can be as critical of Putin all you want. He's repeating what Hitler did in the Sudetenland in the lead up to WW2. Annexing parts of a neighboring country (Czech Republic), that contained mostly ethnic Germans, who speak German and incorporating them into the German State.

But can you at least acknowledge the reality of the situation in the East? Those annexed Oblasts have a significant number of ethnic Russians (likely a majority at present), who speak Russian and want to join Russia.


The reality of the East is the majority of the population has been forcibly displaced by armed Russian soldiers and rebels. Donbass is and always be Ukranian.


Pew research conducted a survey in mid 2014 and the results are telling


Only 18% supported independence. Suspect the figure would be far lower if the area was not under armed military occupation and all former residents were allowed to return home and live in peace.

The area is under armed occupation, anyone who is found to support Ukraine in Ukranian territory is subject to torture and/or summary execution. So the situation now is pretty much support Russia - or die. There are no human rights, the place is a hell hole and all this is down to Russia.


Russians have lived in Ukraine for years. This will continue after the war ends. Ukranians have lived in Russia for years - a particularly large proportion of Belgorod oblast is ethnic Ukranian (although many won't admit that now with the ongoing war). I see no calls from you to return Belgorod to Ukraine (it was transferred from Ukraine to Russia in the early USSR days).


I will also add this is not the first time Russia has tried on a "Russiafication" program in Donbass. The area is historically Ukranian, you might want to read about what happened there in the late 1800s early 1900s.


Face it, the average person does not want to live under a Putin dictatorship in Donbass. They just can't express that and risk their lives while Russia is still occupying the place.
 
The reality of the East is the majority of the population has been forcibly displaced by armed Russian soldiers and rebels. Donbass is and always be Ukranian.

No, again you're deliberately obfuscating.

The Eastern parts of Ukraine (and Crimea) have always had a heavy Russian presence, even during Soviet times and before.


1709086619115.png

Native languages of Ukraine (2001 census) Orange is Russian:

1709086700502.png

Pew research conducted a survey in mid 2014 and the results are telling


Firstly that survey was conducted with all of Ukraine. Only the Eastern Oblasts and Crimea are largely Russian, and repeated surveys if those oblasts show half of more of the population want to join Russia.

Secondly in your survey 14 percent of Ukrainians wanted the Eastern Oblasts and Crimea to become independent or join Russia (and 86 percent wanted unity).

Which correlates to the fact that close to 14 percent of Ukrainians are Russian.

The area is under armed occupation,

The surveys (and that census) were conducted prior to the Russian invasion.

Russians have lived in Ukraine for years.

Yeah. And many of them want to join Russia. 45 percent of the entire population of Donbas desire annexation by Russia, and 90 percent of the population or so in Crimea supported their annexation.

Why cant you acknowledge that reality?

Put your bias to one side for a second and at least acknowledge the reality on the ground mate. The oblasts annexed by the Russians contain a s**t load of ethnic Russians, that speak Russian and that want to join Russia (and no longer be part of Ukraine).

Can you at least acknowledge the truth of that statement for a second before we proceed?
 
No, again you're deliberately obfuscating.

The Eastern parts of Ukraine (and Crimea) have always had a heavy Russian presence, even during Soviet times and before.


View attachment 1915226

Native languages of Ukraine (2001 census) Orange is Russian:

View attachment 1915227



Firstly that survey was conducted with all of Ukraine. Only the Eastern Oblasts and Crimea are largely Russian, and repeated surveys if those oblasts show half of more of the population want to join Russia.

Secondly in your survey 14 percent of Ukrainians wanted the Eastern Oblasts and Crimea to become independent or join Russia (and 86 percent wanted unity).

Which correlates to the fact that close to 14 percent of Ukrainians are Russian.



The surveys (and that census) were conducted prior to the Russian invasion.



Yeah. And many of them want to join Russia. 45 percent of the entire population of Donbas desire annexation by Russia, and 90 percent of the population or so in Crimea supported their annexation.

Why cant you acknowledge that reality?

Put your bias to one side for a second and at least acknowledge the reality on the ground mate. The oblasts annexed by the Russians contain a s**t load of ethnic Russians, that speak Russian and that want to join Russia (and no longer be part of Ukraine).

Can you at least acknowledge the truth of that statement for a second before we proceed?

There's no bias. Those areas have always contained ethnic Russians, speaking Russian. That's never been an issue, prior to the ongoing invasion which started in 2014. That's a fact.

The area also is Ukraine, that's also a fact. Nothing Putin does will ever change this unless the Ukranian government agrees. And they won't, just like Russia won't agree to return Kuril Islands to Japan, Karelia to Finland or Vladivostock to China, or Kaliningrad to Gerrmany.

70% of Eastern Ukraine residents do not want independence from Ukraine. 70%. Sorry, but spouting Russian justification for invading Eastern Ukraine is nonsense. If Russia truly believes its own propaganda it would not need to have occupied militarily the region for 10 years now. Take a look at how Ukranians and Ukranian speakers are treated by the human rights abusers in East Ukraine. Summary execution and torture are the norm. Filtration of children to Russia against the will of parents.

These issues and the fact that most Donbass inhabitants have been relocated within Ukraine and would like to return home without being executed for wearing yellow & blue clothing makes it incredible you say "but what about Russians in East Ukraine".

Russians living in Ukraine are just fine. According to you Zelensky himself does not want to live in Ukraine.
 
There's no bias. Those areas have always contained ethnic Russians, speaking Russian. That's never been an issue, prior to the ongoing invasion which started in 2014. That's a fact.

Here is an article from 2009 that proves you utterly wrong:

The current concern is that a spark in Crimea — however unlikely — could touch off a violent confrontation or even the kind of fighting that broke out between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia.

The situation is particularly uneasy because the population in Crimea is roughly 60 percent ethnic Russian and would prefer that the peninsula separate from Ukraine and be part of Russia. (Sevastopol has an even higher proportion of ethnic Russians.)

People have been upset by new Ukrainian government policies that require the use of the Ukrainian language, rather than Russian, in government activities, including some courses in public schools. Throughout downtown Sevastopol last week, residents set up booths to gather signatures on petitions in an effort to overturn the regulations.

Russia and Ukraine in Intensifying Standoff

There were massive issues pre 2014. The Ukrainian government literally banned the Russian language in government and public schools, and Russians living in Ukraine were advocating to leave Ukraine and join Russia well before the 2014 Russian involvement. Crimeans were opposed to the Ukranian government, and so were many Russians living in the eastern Oblasts.

This mirrors literally every other ethnic conflict in Europe, from the Sudetenland, to the Basques, to the Polish corridor to Northern Ireland.

You're so biased here it's not funny. Put your pro Ukraine googles down for a second, and lets discuss the reality on the ground.

The area also is Ukraine, that's also a fact.

That's irrelevant to what we're discussing here. I agree that Russia has unlawfully annexed eastern Ukraine.

My point is the reality that eastern Ukraine (and Crimea) contain a significant number of ethic Russians, who speak Russian and want to be part of Russia.

No obfuscating by you can alter that reality, and until you accept it as such, you're just cheerleading a side, without properly understanding the underlying ethnic conflict behind it.

70% of Eastern Ukraine residents do not want independence from Ukraine.

Bullshit.

The survey posted above from the Guardian, literally states that 45 percent of the Donbas wants to join Russia, and obviously a majority in Crimea wanted to do the same.

And even if I were to accept your 70 percent figure, that still leaves 1 in 3 people in Eastern Ukraine as being ethnic Russians, speaking Russian and welcoming the annexation by Russia.

What about those people? What happens to them (and the inevitable ethnic conflict those people are going to have with their Ukrainian neighbors, who likely ******* hate them now) should Ukraine somehow repel Russia back across her borders?

I keep asking you this (it's one of the prime underlying causes of the war) but you keep refusing to answer.

Surely you can see its going to be another Yugoslavia all over again?
 
Here is an article from 2009 that proves you utterly wrong:



Russia and Ukraine in Intensifying Standoff

There were massive issues pre 2014. The Ukrainian government literally banned the Russian language in government and public schools, and Russians living in Ukraine were advocating to leave Ukraine and join Russia well before the 2014 Russian involvement. Crimeans were opposed to the Ukranian government, and so were many Russians living in the eastern Oblasts.

This mirrors literally every other ethnic conflict in Europe, from the Sudetenland, to the Basques, to the Polish corridor to Northern Ireland.

You're so biased here it's not funny. Put your pro Ukraine googles down for a second, and lets discuss the reality on the ground.



That's irrelevant to what we're discussing here. I agree that Russia has unlawfully annexed eastern Ukraine.

My point is the reality that eastern Ukraine (and Crimea) contain a significant number of ethic Russians, who speak Russian and want to be part of Russia.

No obfuscating by you can alter that reality, and until you accept it as such, you're just cheerleading a side, without properly understanding the underlying ethnic conflict behind it.



Bullshit.

The survey posted above from the Guardian, literally states that 45 percent of the Donbas wants to join Russia, and obviously a majority in Crimea wanted to do the same.

And even if I were to accept your 70 percent figure, that still leaves 1 in 3 people in Eastern Ukraine as being ethnic Russians, speaking Russian and welcoming the annexation by Russia.

What about those people? What happens to them (and the inevitable ethnic conflict those people are going to have with their Ukrainian neighbors, who likely ******* hate them now) should Ukraine somehow repel Russia back across her borders?

I keep asking you this (it's one of the prime underlying causes of the war) but you keep refusing to answer.

Surely you can see its going to be another Yugoslavia all over again?

Putin himself said there's never been an ethnic conflict and there were no territorial disputes at all:





Game, set and match on the stupid Russian theories.


In any case the rights of Ukranian people to be not murdered and/or tortured on Ukranian territory are far more important than the the very few vatniks that actually genuinely want to live under a miserable USSR 2.0 Putin dictatorship.
 
Another thing that destroys these ridiculous Russian theories:

Ukranian referendum on independence from the Russian empire in 1991 results:



Donbass - 84% voted for independence
Zaporizhia - 91% voted for independence
Kherson - 90% voted for independence
Crimea - 54% voted for independence
Lugansk - 84% voted for independence


Note Donbass & Lugansk had an overwhelming majority voting for independence from the USSR. So much for wanting to be part of the same state as their Russian overlords in Moscow.


And this referendum was conducted under completely neutral conditions. No military occupations on either side, residents were not voting in fear or under threat.
 

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Putin himself said there's never been an ethnic conflict and there were no territorial disputes at all

The same Putin who claimed he was 'De Nazifying' Ukraine, and 'the rumors of Russia planning to invade is fake news' and 'I most definitely did not kill [insert rivals name here]'?

Putin lies. What he says about anything is worthless.

In any case the rights of Ukranian people to be not murdered and/or tortured on Ukranian territory are far more important than the the very few vatniks that actually genuinely want to live under a miserable USSR 2.0 Putin dictatorship.

No, the rights and opinions of both people are equally valuable and important.

Stop cheerleading and think about it for a second.

Ukraine need to not only repel Russa from the East (somehow, without air support, and with the last attempts ending in them getting massacred) but they then need to somehow deal with the resulting insurgency without resorting to ethnic cleansing (like in Yugoslavia, and what happened to millions of ethnic Germans who lived east of the Oder Neisse line at the end of WW2).
 
Yeah, but you have half the population of an area wanting to join one country and the other half hating them for the same, split largely among ethnic lines.

Remind me again how that's worked out the last hundred times it occurred in Europe again?

Worked just fine in Ukraine until Putin had a meltdown over Ukraine not wanting to be a puppet vatnik state of Russia any longer.
 
Yeah, but you have half the population of an area wanting to join one country and the other half hating them for the same, split largely among ethnic lines.

Remind me again how that's worked out the last hundred times it occurred in Europe again?

It's really quite a simple equation. Anyone wanting to live under a Putin dictatorship in Donbass is free to get in a car, drive a few hours and start a life in Russia. Nobody is stopping them, it's a free world. Ethnically & culturally Russians & Ukranians are as similar as Poms & Aussies - there are no ethnic/cultural issues here. All the other examples you claim have strong ethnic tensions involved. Especially former Yugoslavia republics.


Donbass is Ukraine. There should be no credence at all given to the nonsense Putin spouts about language and people in Donbass. For starters, most people in Donbass have been chased out of there elsewhere within Ukraine by armed Russian military. Those people want to return home and should be allowed to.


In any case the most hardened of vatniks in Donbass would surely prefer living under peaceful conditions without an ongoing war being fought with Russia withdrawing completely and respecting Ukraine's territory - as it guaranteed to do so when accepting Ukraine's nuclear weapons arsenal, cruise missiles & TU160 Blackjack bombers in exchange for doing so.
 
Both sides are from the same ethnic group.

No, they're not.

Any more than the Hutus and Tutsis are the same ethnic group:

Rwandan genocide - Wikipedia

Or Catalonians, Basques and Castiles are the same ethnic group. Or the Irish and Ulster Scots and Agle's are the same ethnic group. Or the Serbs and Croats are the same ethnic group. And so forth.
 
No, they're not.

Any more than the Hutus and Tutsis are the same ethnic group:

Rwandan genocide - Wikipedia

Lol, a ridiculous comparison.

Why are you against Ukranian citizens that supposedly want to live under Russian rule simply moving to Russia? What's the real issue here? The place is literally right next door.


Why is this not an issue for Ukranians that live in Belgorod? Surely going by this logic you are now proposing that Russia transfers Belgorod back to Ukraine because of the large diaspora of Ukranians living in Belgorod?
 
Lol, a ridiculous comparison.

No it's not. Ukranians are a different ethnicity to Russians. They speak a different language and identify differently. It's no different to literally every other ethnic conflict in the history of Europe.

You probably think Flemish and Dutch are the same ethnic group. Go tell them that and see how it works out for you.

Why are you against Ukranian citizens that supposedly want to live under Russian rule simply moving to Russia? What's the real issue here? The place is literally right next door.

Because people have the right of self-determination.

Do you think the Ulster Scots should just 'heck off back to the UK' and leave Northern Ireland as well? Should Anglo Australians heck off back to the UK as well? What about Basques and Catalonians in Spain? What about the Serbs and the Croats?

You're just ignoring the underlying ethnic conflict in this war. Which is like getting involved in Ireland and ignoring the same thing.

Why is this not an issue for Ukranians that live in Belgorod? Surely going by this logic you are now proposing that Russia transfers Belgorod back to Ukraine because of the large diaspora of Ukranians living in Belgorod?

Im not suggesting Russia do a damn thing.

If they (or Ukraine) were to do anything it would be to hold a free and fair referendum on joining Russia vs remaining in Ukraine, with options for independence as well (either as semi-autonomous regions or either Russia or Ukraine, and options for partition plan etc) or as totally independent new States.

People have the right to self-determination. It's the same thing I want Israel to do with Palestine; allow for self-determination and recognition of the will of the people.

Im simply explaining to you the underlying ethnic conflict behind much of this war. A conflict you seem hell bent on ignoring as if it didnt exist.
 
No it's not. Ukranians are a different ethnicity to Russians. They speak a different language and identify differently. It's no different to literally every other ethnic conflict in the history of Europe.

You probably think Flemish and Dutch are the same ethnic group. Go tell them that and see how it works out for you.



Because people have the right of self-determination.

Do you think the Ulster Scots should just '* off back to the UK' and leave Northern Ireland as well? Should Anglo Australians * off back to the UK as well? What about Basques and Catalonians in Spain? What about the Serbs and the Croats?

You're just ignoring the underlying ethnic conflict in this war. Which is like getting involved in Ireland and ignoring the same thing.



Im not suggesting Russia do a damn thing.

If they (or Ukraine) were to do anything it would be to hold a free and fair referendum on joining Russia vs remaining in Ukraine, with options for independence as well (either as semi-autonomous regions or either Russia or Ukraine, and options for partition plan etc) or as totally independent new States.

People have the right to self-determination. It's the same thing I want Israel to do with Palestine; allow for self-determination and recognition of the will of the people.

Im simply explaining to you the underlying ethnic conflict behind much of this war. A conflict you seem hell bent on ignoring as if it didnt exist.

There would be no need for a military occupation of Donbass if the original population wanted to join Russia.

I'll remind you again - over 80% of all the East Ukraine regions voted for independence from the Russian Empire.

This referendum was nation wide. It was not conducted under an armed occupation. Citizens were not subject to threats.

Sorry but that result is clear and must be respected. I don't give any credence to bullshit RF referendums.

East Ukraine resoundingly rejected Russian imperialism in 1991 and that's the end of it.
 


🚨The New York Times disclosed yesterday that the CIA built "12 Secret Spy Bases" in Ukraine, waging a shadow war against Russia for the past decade.





After a U.S.-supported violent coup toppled Ukraine's democratically elected government, CIA Director John Brennan visited Kyiv in April 2014.





Shortly after, the new Ukrainian government launched an "anti-terror operation" against its Russian-speaking citizens in Eastern Ukraine.





For eight years leading up to Russia's invasion in 2022, Ukraine's government, with help from the CIA, relentlessly bombed Eastern Ukraine.





Millions of innocent civilians were caught in the crossfire of a geopolitical chess match between Russia and the United States.





This is part of the story often ignored by the Western press.











@KanekoaTheGreat
 


🚨The New York Times disclosed yesterday that the CIA built "12 Secret Spy Bases" in Ukraine, waging a shadow war against Russia for the past decade.





After a U.S.-supported violent coup toppled Ukraine's democratically elected government, CIA Director John Brennan visited Kyiv in April 2014.





Shortly after, the new Ukrainian government launched an "anti-terror operation" against its Russian-speaking citizens in Eastern Ukraine.





For eight years leading up to Russia's invasion in 2022, Ukraine's government, with help from the CIA, relentlessly bombed Eastern Ukraine.





Millions of innocent civilians were caught in the crossfire of a geopolitical chess match between Russia and the United States.





This is part of the story often ignored by the Western press.











@KanekoaTheGreat

KanekoaTheGreat still doing work, forgot about that guy :tearsofjoy:
 

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