The rain

[MP_]

They're all coming from the usual suspects

They're the same people who consider saying "how's that global warming?" on a cold winters day the height of sophisticated humor.

There's a really interesting guy i follow on facebook going by the name of inigo jones. He's certainly out there and absolutely hates the BOM but the way this guy forecasts weather has been eerily accurate. He uses planetary charts and quantum mathematics. It is his belief and honestly i think its highly likely , that the weather is determined by the planetary alignments and the gravitational pulls of where everything is placed at any given point. When you get into what he says it makes a bit of sense why weather predicitions are so hard. every location on earth has a different alignment to the solar system, how you can predict what will happen in a town when every spot around it has a different alignment. His method of prediction is done using star charts and mapping, it's really very interesting. To him el nino, iod's are all buzz words and in fact the mean little because our weather is in a massive cycle and has been for millions of years. worth a look at if it interests you.

 

[peternorth]

Absolutely teeming down right now. Thunder so loud it work me up. Sounds like it’s right above my house.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Absolutely teeming down right now. Thunder so loud it work me up. Sounds like it’s right above my house.

I thought my windows were going to smash due to the hail.

Sideways on an angle I've never seen before

 

[peternorth]

I thought my windows were going to smash due to the hail.

Sideways on an angle I've never seen before

100 percent!!! that was insane. i swear the storm was just over me and surrounding 2/3 suburbs

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

100 percent!!! that was insane. i swear the storm was just over 2/3 suburbs

I had to get up and push against the window to prevent it smashing. The rain was as intense as I've ever seen. My garage is usually covered in water in the rain, but today its dry as it was coming from the north.

Checked BOM and it was black over my suburb. Never seen that before

 

[Billy ray]

120mm overnight at mine

 

[Smoooothy]

nothing in pascoe vale at all!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

people just love criticising, bom could suggest 10-20mm of rain , 21mm falls and they would be moaning. people look at rain radars and think that they will get excatly what is predicted, there's no way the bom can predict exactly how much water will fall in a set location. A farmer friend of mine had 20mm of rain in one paddock, 500m away on other side of farm 1mm .

The same BOM that needs to update their forecast @ 9:30am to include showers that have come out of nowhere when they’ve already predicted the weather @ 5:30am.

The same BOM that predicted 30 for Mebourne this coming Saturday, but since Saturday the forecast has changed from 30 to 28 to 27 and now 25

They are clueless and the 7 day forecasts show that

I hope everyone is enjoying their El Niño dry summer in Melbourne.

 

[Chief]

The same BOM that needs to update their forecast @ 9:30am to include showers that have come out of nowhere when they’ve already predicted the weather @ 5:30am.

The same BOM that predicted 30 for Mebourne this coming Saturday, but since Saturday the forecast has changed from 30 to 28 to 27 and now 25

They are clueless and the 7 day forecasts show that

I hope everyone is enjoying their El Niño dry summer in Melbourne.

Any other areas you feel that weather predictions are wrong? Are we going into a climate change rant?

On a thread where people are just talking about rain?

 

[Billy ray]

Isnt it because the volcano filled the atmosphere with water vapour? Which noone predicted an eruption?

 

[MP_]

Isnt it because the volcano filled the atmosphere with water vapour? Which noone predicted an eruption?

That is having an impact but I don’t believe it is the sole cause of what is happening. It’s a combination of the different climate drivers ending early and starting up early. Just seems like things are out of whack to what is “normal”

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Any other areas you feel that weather predictions are wrong? Are we going into a climate change rant?

On a thread where people are just talking about rain?

He really hates the lack of El Nino (apparently)

 

[MP_]

The same BOM that needs to update their forecast @ 9:30am to include showers that have come out of nowhere when they’ve already predicted the weather @ 5:30am.

The same BOM that predicted 30 for Mebourne this coming Saturday, but since Saturday the forecast has changed from 30 to 28 to 27 and now 25

They are clueless and the 7 day forecasts show that

I hope everyone is enjoying their El Niño dry summer in Melbourne.

lol expecting a 7 day forecast to be accurate is just plain delusional on your part, there's a reason they call it weather predictions. If you use google maps to work out how long it takes to get from A to B it will give you a time just like a 7 day forecast gives a weather prediction. on your trip you may exceed the speed limit, break down, have an accident, get stuck behind a slow driver, have roadworks etc all that affect the outcome when you reach that final destination. Weather is the same, there are so many factors that clearly you don't understand that can change a forecast dramatically in 7 days.

 

[ShooterMcGavin8]

Since when did the showers come out of no where today for VIC. Been forecast for a week. 10-20mm

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Something to keep an eye on next week. Cat 4/5 cyclone likely around Townsville/Mackay then wash out to a low and head south east.

 

[Billy ray]

Wouldn’t mind some right now !

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Wouldn’t mind some right now !

High moisture levels in my jocks currently.

 

[Billy ray]

High moisture levels in my jocks currently.

 

[Billy ray]

Yikes. Some models are saying upwards of 500-700mm in 3-4 days is possible for SE Qld after that new cyclone crosses, stays inland and moves south south east back out to sea.

 

[Gough]

Stay dry Bill.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Yikes. Some models are saying upwards of 500-700mm in 3-4 days is possible for SE Qld after that new cyclone crosses, stays inland and moves south south east back out to sea.

I've just seen a 1600mm forecast for your area.

 

[Billy ray]

I've just seen a 1600mm forecast for your area.

Yeh worst case.
Thats 2-3 annual rainfalls of Melbourne or Perth in 3-4 days
I dont think that will happen.
We will just get 1annual

 

[Big Sauce 21]

Yeh worst case.
Thats 2-3 annual rainfalls of Melbourne or Perth in 3-4 days
I dont think that will happen.
We will just get 1annual

I'd say widespread 300mm from Bundaberg south to boarder.

 

[Registered User]

Does the radar read the rain incorrectly in Melbourne ? Similar colour set up on the bom as SE Qld but they're getting feck all out of it. something like 6mm at the moment.

It could be virga, which is when warm wind, particularly when it's strong, evaporates a lot of the rain before it hits the ground. It happens a lot to us when we get medium to strong northerlies or north-westerlies.
I dunno if the following is true, but someone told me that what we on the BOM radar is "consumer-level", which is higher than the hardcore stuff people like defense forces and some airports have, which is lower.

Virga - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[mr bagcroft]

High moisture levels in my jocks currently.

Ok edge lord, take a breath and a step back..