Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

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MRB37 said:
It could very much be grading "value" at the pick. Neither are A's overall, picking them in the 80's and the rookie draft is an A grade pick though.
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True. But that shows just terrible an analysis it is

Absolutely ignores not only the quality of the player but also the weighting of the pick itself

Doing quite well with pick 80 is not the equivalent of doing quite well with pick 4. Where’s the force multiplier to reflect the innate weight of the relative picks

You cannot and should not compare across these bands

A+ for a rookie draft is a 50 game list filler

A+ for pick 4 is Bontempelli

Getting an A+ for a rookie draft pick and a F for pick 4 is a massive fail when combined. It’s not just 2 picks and a glib - oh well, he can spot a late gem

Getting an A+ for pick 4 and F for the rookie draft, is the same A+ and F rating, but that sets you up for years

They are not the same!!!
 
Sanders said:
True. But that shows just terrible an analysis it is

Absolutely ignores not only the quality of the player but also the weighting of the pick itself

Doing quite well with pick 80 is not the equivalent of doing quite well with pick 4. Where’s the force multiplier to reflect the innate weight of the relative picks

You cannot and should not compare across these bands

A+ for a rookie draft is a 50 game list filler

A+ for pick 4 is Bontempelli

Getting an A+ for a rookie draft pick and a F for pick 4 is a massive fail when combined. It’s not just 2 picks and a glib - oh well, he can spot a late gem

Getting an A+ for pick 4 and F for the rookie draft, is the same A+ and F rating, but that sets you up for years

They are not the same!!!
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On a quick glance it looks very much like how they rate NFL drafts where they're big on the value at picks. Generally the value of a pick and the rating of a player are completely seperate things done at seperate times.

I wouldn't have imagined drafting Atkins at 81 was an A at the time in terms of value, he wasn't a slider, he was probably lucky to be drafted and if we had a full draft hand we probably wouldn't have taken him. You'd probably give it a C- at most I'd say, then you can judge him as an individual player after that where he was probably capable of a B+ on a really good day, overall was probably a C though.
 

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Sanders said:
True. But that shows just terrible an analysis it is

Absolutely ignores not only the quality of the player but also the weighting of the pick itself

Doing quite well with pick 80 is not the equivalent of doing quite well with pick 4. Where’s the force multiplier to reflect the innate weight of the relative picks

You cannot and should not compare across these bands

A+ for a rookie draft is a 50 game list filler

A+ for pick 4 is Bontempelli

Getting an A+ for a rookie draft pick and a F for pick 4 is a massive fail when combined. It’s not just 2 picks and a glib - oh well, he can spot a late gem

Getting an A+ for pick 4 and F for the rookie draft, is the same A+ and F rating, but that sets you up for years

They are not the same!!!
Click to expand...
This is a fair point

A good example of this is the Jones pick. He’s looking like he’ll turn into a pretty decent small defender in isolation, but using pick 9(?) on a ‘decent small defender’ instead of grabbing someone like Butters is going to haunt us. Grabbing Butts as almost the last pick in the rookie draft is a huge win, but is that enough to make up for swinging and missing earlier in the draft? Probably not

At this point in time I’m just hoping like hell we can turn Pedlar and/or Rachele into that A+ quality midfielder that it feels like we’ve been looking for for years. Finally get some top tier midfield value out of a high selection
 
Sanders said:
Absolutely ignores not only the quality of the player but also the weighting of the pick itself

Doing quite well with pick 80 is not the equivalent of doing quite well with pick 4. Where’s the force multiplier to reflect the innate weight of the relative picks

You cannot and should not compare across these bands

A+ for a rookie draft is a 50 game list filler

A+ for pick 4 is Bontempelli

Getting an A+ for a rookie draft pick and a F for pick 4 is a massive fail when combined. It’s not just 2 picks and a glib - oh well, he can spot a late gem

Getting an A+ for pick 4 and F for the rookie draft, is the same A+ and F rating, but that sets you up for years

They are not the same!!!
Click to expand...
It’s a draft ranking, not a player rating. I don’t think the author is saying Atkins is an A+ player. It’s not terrible analysis you just refuse to understand it.
 
Danger in Texas said:
This is a fair point

A good example of this is the Jones pick. He’s looking like he’ll turn into a pretty decent small defender in isolation, but using pick 9(?) on a ‘decent small defender’ instead of grabbing someone like Butters is going to haunt us. Grabbing Butts as almost the last pick in the rookie draft is a huge win, but is that enough to make up for swinging and missing earlier in the draft? Probably not

At this point in time I’m just hoping like hell we can turn Pedlar and/or Rachele into that A+ quality midfielder that it feels like we’ve been looking for for years. Finally get some top tier midfield value out of a high selection
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Winning the meat raffle at the pub and winning the lottery both involve winning tickets

That’s where the comparison ends though
 
Rating picks that ****ed off to play their best football elsewhere as A+ is mental.

The blokes sticking around is a very key metric to measure the success of the picks. Like you don't rate picks highly when the player gets delisted after a couple of years do ya?
 
WetCrow1991 said:
Rating picks that ducked off to play their best football elsewhere as A+ is mental.

The blokes sticking around is a very key metric to measure the success of the picks. Like you don't rate picks highly when the player gets delisted after a couple of years do ya?
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Whilst I don’t quite agree - talent ID is one thing, it’s not the only thing either.

character assessment has to be part of the deal somewhere; how will they settle, deal with adversity, success, work hard, accept coaching etc

If all that matters is talent ID, then Angwin is A+++ that ability quotient was off the ****ing charts
 
Getting Atkins at pick 81 was above average drafting for a pick 81.

However the 2012 draft also had a really good rookie draft. Matt Taberner, Dane Rampe, Jake Lloyd and Zac Williams. Solid role players like Kyle Hartigan, Jon Ceglar, and Callum Sinclair were also taken.

I don't think he's necessarily a top tier standout pick late for that draft
 
Sanders said:
I’d work on your self-loathing first if I were you ;)
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Huh?
Yeah mate you keep making up the narrative... blah blah.
I'll continue my tour of the beautiful great North of Oz.

That was actually a very shyt reply for someone that thinks they have half a brain.. but if it looks good to your little followers I guess you're happy with that.
 

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We traded pick 16 to Carlton in 2017 as part of the Bryce Gibbs trade.

In between pick 16 and our next pick at 40, the following players were taken.

Jack Higgins
Brandon Starcevich
Wil Powell
Oscar Allen
Tim Kelly
Noah Balta
Liam Ryan
Sam Taylor
Charlie Spargo
Tom De Koning
Bayley Fritsch
Tom McCartin
Harrison Petty

Ouch
 
Sanders said:
Whilst I don’t quite agree - talent ID is one thing, it’s not the only thing either.

character assessment has to be part of the deal somewhere; how will they settle, deal with adversity, success, work hard, accept coaching etc

If all that matters is talent ID, then Angwin is A+++ that ability quotient was off the ******* charts
Click to expand...

My point being that it is no good when our best picks in the draft leave us.
 
Scorpus said:
He is, but he's also not leaving much room for the actual stars taken late.

If you have Atkins as an A for a 5th round pick, what happens to (say) Adam Saad and Charlie Cameron

Both were taken as rookies, Saad is better than Atkins, and Cameron is better than both of them by a fair margin. By this system you have to give both A+, or does Cameron get A+++?

His ranking has to scale appropriately so great and elite players can rank highly from rookies

How on earth did Wigg get a C- unless the average late second round pick plays like 5 games? He judged that a player that didn't play a single game was only slightly below expected for a pick 35
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Pretty sure he called Kerridge a clear miss but then ranked him as C-. His logic was sound but he stuffed the scale.
 
Sanders said:
The Bayesian comparison against expected is needed and missing. Without a qualitative element is as meaningful as putting stickers on your duffel bag at school

What’s also missing is a comparison to other clubs. It’s a competitive industry and we suck - so how is that possible if we keep nailing the draft relative to other clubs?
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Development, overarching strategy, selection and game day coaching. Tis a tangled web.
 
Wazzy36 said:
It’s a draft ranking, not a player rating. I don’t think the author is saying Atkins is an A+ player. It’s not terrible analysis you just refuse to understand it.
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I got bored about 3 years in but what I noticed was he’d absolve a late pick with 0 games as not important, not much else available so a C. But then a late pick that played a handful of mediocre games gets a good grade because you weren’t expecting much anyway. So every player taken late is at worst a C. It’s flawed.
 
1970crow said:
I got bored about 3 years in but what I noticed was he’d absolve a late pick with 0 games as not important, not much else available so a C. But then a late pick that played a handful of mediocre games gets a good grade because you weren’t expecting much anyway. So every player taken late is at worst a C. It’s flawed.
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Flawed like our drafting!

Caught a bit of the Carlton game, umpiring was dreadful, stick the whistles up your clackers for a while, it's ruining the game, and as for 50 metre penalties for minor infringements, they're affecting the outcome of games. AFL has a lot to answer for, I'm losing interest in games because of this. But I digress, Charlie Curnow was massive, taken the pick after Milera. Flawed drafting
 
Scorpus said:
We traded pick 16 to Carlton in 2017 as part of the Bryce Gibbs trade.

In between pick 16 and our next pick at 40, the following players were taken.

Jack Higgins
Brandon Starcevich
Wil Powell
Oscar Allen
Tim Kelly
Noah Balta
Liam Ryan
Sam Taylor
Charlie Spargo
Tom De Koning
Bayley Fritsch
Tom McCartin
Harrison Petty

Ouch
Click to expand...
It's ok we wouldn't have drafted any of them.

On Pixel 5 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
WetCrow1991 said:
My point being that it is no good when our best picks in the draft leave us.
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We may as well shut up shop if we aren't picking the best talent and backing in culture. Freo don't have a problem keeping them (on the most part) and neither do Port, Brisbane, West Coast. Sydney, The reason players leave us is because our off field is not in order and they mismanage our cap. We have given out some truly stupid contracts the last 6-7 years. It's all well and good for Riccuito sit on the sidelines each game complaining how crap we are but he created it along with Reid and Ogilvie. The club does nothing about it and keeps hiring new coaches. I'm not a fan of Nick's but how about giving a coach something to work with.
 
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