Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

[Bob Neil]

I think it's encouraging that at the end of 2020 and now the first two rounds of 2021 we're (finally!) seeing some positive signs of a rebuild under Nicks that - whilst still underway - is starting to deliver some improvement.

However, sadly, I think this current rebuild will ultimately fail insofar as it won't deliver a premiership for the simple reason that our recent (past five years) drafting (esp. first rounders) will be shown to have been poor.

I think history shows that premierships are built on a nucleus of top talents acquired via the draft which are supported by various other mechanisms (FA, other trades, lower draft picks inc. rookies, non-footy backgrounds, etc.)...and that's even before you look at coaching, fitness, culture, etc.

You don't necessarily have to hit a home run on all of those areas but I think that if the core (i.e. drafting top picks) is hollow then the whole thing won't work. Have a look at our first round draft picks (per Wikipedia) from the past five years and tell me if I'm wrong...

2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)

 

[Crow till I die]

I think it's encouraging that at the end of 2020 and now the first two rounds of 2021 we're (finally!) seeing some positive signs of a rebuild under Nicks that - whilst still underway - is starting to deliver some improvement.

However, sadly, I think this current rebuild will ultimately fail insofar as it won't deliver a premiership for the simple reason that our recent (past five years) drafting (esp. first rounders) will be shown to have been poor.

I think history shows that premierships are built on a nucleus of top talents acquired via the draft which are supported by various other mechanisms (FA, other trades, lower draft picks inc. rookies, non-footy backgrounds, etc.)...and that's even before you look at coaching, fitness, culture, etc.

You don't necessarily have to hit a home run on all of those areas but I think that if the core (i.e. drafting top picks) is hollow then the whole thing won't work. Have a look at our first round draft picks (per Wikipedia) from the past five years and tell me if I'm wrong...

2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)

I'd argue the rebuild is not yet finished. We have the draft at the end of this year to come and if next year we could entice a Rankine or Lukosius back (that is an if), there is the chance that a number of those players COULD go on to become top end AFL players. Then add to that the luck we have had with a few of our later and less heralded picks - Sholl, McAdam, Butts, shoenberg etc. Way Way too early to write anything off

 

[Torpedro]

Plenty of water to go under the bridge yet. Whole worrying, only one of the players have conclusively failed.

 

[Murray2503]

I think it's encouraging that at the end of 2020 and now the first two rounds of 2021 we're (finally!) seeing some positive signs of a rebuild under Nicks that - whilst still underway - is starting to deliver some improvement.

However, sadly, I think this current rebuild will ultimately fail insofar as it won't deliver a premiership for the simple reason that our recent (past five years) drafting (esp. first rounders) will be shown to have been poor.

I think history shows that premierships are built on a nucleus of top talents acquired via the draft which are supported by various other mechanisms (FA, other trades, lower draft picks inc. rookies, non-footy backgrounds, etc.)...and that's even before you look at coaching, fitness, culture, etc.

You don't necessarily have to hit a home run on all of those areas but I think that if the core (i.e. drafting top picks) is hollow then the whole thing won't work. Have a look at our first round draft picks (per Wikipedia) from the past five years and tell me if I'm wrong...

2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)

We will need to pick the eyes out of the next 3 drafts and trade in some elite players for us to have a chance of a flag. We can do it but we have a lot of work to do. I currently don't trust Ogilvie, Reid, Riccuito to deliver us a flag though. They all need to go.

 

[Scorpus]

We weren't rebuilding from 2016-2018. We were gunning for a flag. The rebuild started at the end of 2019 when we cut staff and the list.

While picks from those years matter, most of the decisions we were making were around a flag. A rebuilding team wouldn't hand over 2 firsts for Bryce Gibbs as an example. That single decision has likely cost us more severely than drafting (say) Jordan Gallucci

7

Jordan Gallucci

Age

26

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.8

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

2.8

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.1

4star

G

0.7

4star

No current season stats available

D

12.0

3star

K

8.8

4star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

0.8

4star

.

So based on that I think it's too early to call whether it will fail. Was our flag tilt a fail? Absolutely, and our list management in that period was a fail as well. But our rebuild is very young and the players taken in that time are basically unproven.

We also need to keep in mind that it generally takes at least 5 years, if not longer, for a team to go from finishing bottom 4 to finals. A premiership is likely 8-10 years away, so making any judgements in the first year of a rebuild is very premature. We will likely be adding a lot more players over the next 2-3 years that will form the core of our side, at that point guys like the Gooch will be long forgotten (not to mention our disastrous 2014 draft where we lost everyone of note)

 

[jenny61_99]

What an absolutely ridiculous statement.

 

[Pick4To6]

I can not predict the future, so to say you are wrong won’t change anything as I have no idea, just as I don’t know if you will be right, but it’s safe to say the previous draft picks possibly won’t help win a premiership.

However, I think 2021 will go down as a year we laid some solid foundations towards the rebuild. Rowe, Berry, Butts, Murray and McHenry won’t ever be superstar highly elite top 5 league wide players. But they will be solid, hard as nail players who with experience will be dependable.

We need Thilthorpe to become a elite key forward and we really need to find a midfielder or two who can become a Dangerfield/Martin/Petracca type player in next years draft.

Right now, we have got something solid building but we are not heading towards greatness. We need that stroke of genius.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

What an absolutely ridiculous statement.

On the one hand to say the rebuild will fail is essentially saying the team will never contend again which is total bullshit. However if the argument is that rebuilds are iterative and that this current rebuild will fail and we'll need to restructure our footy dept. a second, maybe third time, it's not so unreasonable. I'd be pretty surprised if we have this exact current setup when we are contending again.

 

[Slippery Pete]

The club allowed things to get very bad before they decided on this course of action and that means the pain is going to be longer than it should’ve been.

Mid-2018, after that shambolic Pyke/Burton press conference, was when an accountable club would’ve taken swift action on all levels of the organization. Instead they let it ride for another 18 months, with their heads up their asses the whole time.

It’s history now, but the piper still has to be paid.

 

[Torpedro]

You know you don’t get any brownie points for making ridiculously early big calls right?

 

[Pick4To6]

You know you don’t get any brownie points for making ridiculously early big calls right?

What was so “ridiculous” about his post?

Do you mind giving some examples?

 

[Mr_Moogle]

You know you don’t get any brownie points for making ridiculously early big calls right?

You know that this is a forum for discussing football, right?

 

[Pick4To6]

What an absolutely ridiculous statement.

Same.

What was so “ridiculous” about his post!

Some examples would help, if you don’t mind!

 

[40porpoise]

I understand what you’re saying.

At this stage IMO the only young player that has multiple AA and superstar potential is Thilthorpe and Doedee.

Berry Pedlar and Scholl could become those players, but id say it’s more likely they’ll become solid to good players with a limited ceiling.

We really need a nucleus equivalent to Buddy, Roughead,Burgoyne, Hodge, Mitchell, Rioli or Dusty, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt, Lynch etc.

 

[cmndstab]

It will fail if we assume the rebuild has finished and now we just have to play the players we've got now without getting any more.

Realistically, we're only at the start of a proper rebuild. We have some quality players from the past few years in between the duds. Keep the good ones, jettison the rest, and continue rebuilding until we have a quality list.

 

[GrommoT]

We weren't rebuilding from 2016-2018. We were gunning for a flag. The rebuild started at the end of 2019 when we cut staff and the list.
...

While this is likely true, in 2018 players leaving got us some extra players (McNugggets <--> McAdam and McHenry), we drafted Hamill, Sholl, Butts and hopefully there's still hope with Jones.

So while the Club might not have intended it, we did start to accumulate the next core group in 2018.

 

[Cap]

Flags are also won from good trading (and FA)

I think we are at the, get our house in order stage, which will hopefully be complimented by the above in coming years as players actually want to come here (likely come home)

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'm not sure we know how to

Our older players are not good enough for us to be semi competitive while we usher in young players around them. So we'll need to top up with mid-rangers / delisted players / mature agers around our older players which will leave less room for our draftees.

Who will develop more slowly and in fewer numbers as a result.

We saw last season when we went really young that we quickly became laughing stock standard which helps no one. Needed to bring in more youth when we were good. Instead we all know who spots 20, 21 and 22 kept going to.

Difficult to see a way out now.

Need to identify the Doedees on our list - those who have time on their side and will improve quickly at AFL level. Berry looks a likely type. MacPherson and Butts are. Sholl, Hamill. Pump games into them. Ride out some bad ones eg MacPherson on Saturday.

Balanced with the experience that can keep us semi competitive

Tricky

The worse that experience is the more of it you need

 

[jenny61_99]

On the one hand to say the rebuild will fail is essentially saying the team will never contend again which is total bullshit. However if the argument is that rebuilds are iterative and that this current rebuild will fail and we'll need to restructure our footy dept. a second, maybe third time, it's not so unreasonable. I'd be pretty surprised if we have this exact current setup when we are contending again.

how could ANYONE possibly know it will fail? Rebuilds aren’t set in stone, they are rolling, evolving entities that change as needs and requirements change.

IF this statement were true, then heck it, let’s just scrap everyone and start again! See how ridiculous that is?

 

[jenny61_99]

Same.

What was so “ridiculous” about his post!

Some examples would help, if you don’t mind!

See my above response.

 

[Slippery Pete]

how could ANYONE possibly know it will fail? Rebuilds aren’t set in stone, they are rolling, evolving entities that change as needs and requirements change.

IF this statement were true, then fu** it, let’s just scrap everyone and start again! See how ridiculous that is?

He’s trying to provoke conversation and healthy debate, I don’t think you were supposed to take it literally.

 

[jackster83]

Hard to properly rebuild when you leave your first round picks playing SANFL whilst picking the likes of Frampton, Kelly, Seedsman, Murphy and Mackay.

 

[Scorpus]

While this is likely true, in 2018 players leaving got us some extra players (McNugggets <--> McAdam and McHenry), we drafted Hamill, Sholl, Butts and hopefully there's still hope with Jones.

So while the Club might not have intended it, we did start to accumulate the next core group in 2018.

We did but I highly doubt our intention was looking towards a full rebuild of the list. In that same year for example we had no trouble handing out long contracts to players like Lynch and Sloane

 

[Mr_Moogle]

how could ANYONE possibly know it will fail? Rebuilds aren’t set in stone, they are rolling, evolving entities that change as needs and requirements change.

That's exactly what I meant when I said rebuilds are iterative.

 

[Truck25]

Impossible to prove anybody wrong or right at this stage. Just sit back and enjoy the ride, lot more water to go under the bridge before you can even think of making this call.