Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

[GameofSloanes]

Possibly the worst thread on this board

As others have said, we're at the start, before we contend there will be another 4 or 5 drafts at least with more opportunities, as our senior players retire cash may free up to recruit free agents etc.

We've mostly got the off field in order now, good coaches, signs that players are developing and the game plan is improving. Give em time

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Possibly the worst thread on this board

As others have said, we're at the start, before we contend there will be another 4 or 5 drafts at least with more opportunities, as our senior players retire cash may free up to recruit free agents etc.

This is a bit harsh. I think there is a discussion to be had here about the process of rebuilding and how it evolves over time but the OP's choice to frame it purely around recent drafting and calling it a fail was the wrong way to go about it.

We've mostly got the off field in order now, good coaches, signs that players are developing and the game plan is improving. Give em time

This is jumping the gun. We don't have a large enough sample size to know how effective the new coaching group is. I'd also remind you that the Brad Crouch trade shows our off field stuff still has a way to go. Adam Kelly has a debt to pay.

 

[Bob Neil]

Here's the premiers from the last 10 years and players on their list that were good or above players and 1st round draft picks at that club (i.e. not traded in). I reckon there's only one flag (Sydney 2012) that goes towards disproving my theory that you need to have a solid core (5+) high draft picks that you've developed and who are big contributors if you're going to win a flag. For us to win a flag *from this rebuild* (i.e. within the next 5 years - pretty generous) it's hard to see given our prior drafting where those core of top draft picks will come from.

Of course it can't be proven either way yet and I'd love to be wrong but I fear that despite the good works we're clearly starting to do now that our recent drafting will see us fall short. Please demonstrate where my assessment is wrong - do you not need the top draft picks or do we have them on our books now but they're just taking time...

Richmond (2017/18 & 2020): Cotchin (#2), Martin (#3), Vlastuin (#9), Reiwoldt (#13), Ellis (#15), Rioli (#15), Rance (#18)

West Coast (2019): Naitanui (#2), Masten (#3), Gaff (#4), Sheppard (#7), Sheed (#11), Duggan (#11), Hurn (#13), Shuey (#18)

Western Bulldogs (2016): Bontempelli (#4), Stringer (#5), Macrae (#6), Murphy (#13)

Hawthorn (2013/14/15): Hodge (#1), Roughead (#2), Franklin (#4), Lewis (#7), Rioli (#12), Birchall (#14),

Sydney (2012): McVeigh (#5), Bolton (#8), Jetta (#14)

Geelong (2011): Selwood (#7), Mackie (#7), Bartel (#8), Corey (#8), Varcoe (#15), Taylor (#17), Kelly (#17)

 

[Bob Neil]

I'd argue the rebuild is not yet finished.

I noted in the OP that it was still in progress.

We weren't rebuilding from 2016-2018. We were gunning for a flag. The rebuild started at the end of 2019 when we cut staff and the list.

That's entirely true but doesn't change the fact that you're still forced to build on the legacy that you inherit from past seasons/regimes.

What an absolutely ridiculous statement.

Feel free to disprove my theory then.

On the one hand to say the rebuild will fail is essentially saying the team will never contend again which is total bullshit.

That's a total misrepresentation. I'm saying that this rebuild will fail (i.e. not win a premiership in the next 5 or so years)...doesn't mean we won't contend ever again.

You know you don’t get any brownie points for making ridiculously early big calls right?

But presumably you do for quashing debate...

It will fail if we assume the rebuild has finished and now we just have to play the players we've got now without getting any more.

I never stated that assumption - indeed I said that it was still WIP.

how could ANYONE possibly know it will fail? Rebuilds aren’t set in stone, they are rolling, evolving entities that change as needs and requirements change.

IF this statement were true, then fu** it, let’s just scrap everyone and start again! See how ridiculous that is?

If you were in the middle of building something that you knew, or had strong grounds to believe would fail, would you keep going on the same path...?

As others have said, we're at the start, before we contend there will be another 4 or 5 drafts at least with more opportunities, as our senior players retire cash may free up to recruit free agents etc.

Do you think those players we draft in the next five years will have a significant impact on our ability to win a flag in the next five years (i.e. within the horizon of this rebuild)?

 

[GameofSloanes]

This is a bit harsh. I think there is a discussion to be had here about the process of rebuilding and how it evolves over time but the OP's choice to frame it purely around recent drafting and calling it a fail was the wrong way to go about it.


This is jumping the gun. We don't have a large enough sample size to know how effective the new coaching group is. I'd also remind you that the Brad Crouch trade shows our off field stuff still has a way to go. Adam Kelly has a debt to pay.

Certainly there is a discussion about the time it takes, but to say it is a fail when we are really only 18 months into the process is pretty ridiculous. Particularly when not many decisions / recruits (on or off field) since then are busts (yet)

Agree about the crouch stuff. Small sample size, yes, but we are certainly showing signs of being better coached. Last year not being able to have the coaches physically with the players for training early wouldn't have helped the players.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Do you think those players we draft in the next five years will have a significant impact on our ability to win a flag in the next five years (i.e. within the horizon of this rebuild)?

Some will, certainly

 

[jenny61_99]

If you were in the middle of building something that you knew, or had strong grounds to believe would fail, would you keep going on the same path...?

IF the Club didn’t do anything else but get rid of Pyke and Burton... then you would have a point that the path they were on was doomed to fail. HOWEVER, they have done far, far more than that, with the latest changes to the coaching and admin panel only coming into effect for this year. The different game plan, the cohesiveness of the playing group, the buy in to what the coach is selling... are all positive steps towards a better future. To declare at this point in time, that this is doomed to fail is a ridiculous statement. And the “prove me wrong” even more so.

 

[cmndstab]

I never stated that assumption - indeed I said that it was still WIP.

Well, then it's not doomed to failure. It will just take some more time than if we'd nailed the draft over the last few years.

 

[WeeBlake]

It’s worth talking about HOW we should rebuild. Maybe this can be thread for that.

have we got any players that have meaningful trade value? Polec, wingard types?

outside of crouch, maybe himmelberg, I can’t really think of any.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

That's a total misrepresentation. I'm saying that this rebuild will fail (i.e. not win a premiership in the next 5 or so years)...doesn't mean we won't contend ever again.

I think we have different ideas of what "rebuild" means. If we rebuild the club to the point where we can contend for a flag but don't win one, would you classify that as a failed rebuild? I wouldn't. My idea of rebuilding is getting the club to a point where it can compete with the best sides in the league.

 

[Apsaalooke]

If you count success as a premiership, history over the last 22 years says you're right, but we still have to try.
I can't see us creating a dynasty but we might have a breakthrough flag one day like the Bulldogs did or we should have done.
We won't do it by continually blowing 1st rounders though.

 

[Ozzie]

This is a bit harsh. I think there is a discussion to be had here about the process of rebuilding and how it evolves over time but the OP's choice to frame it purely around recent drafting and calling it a fail was the wrong way to go about it.


This is jumping the gun. We don't have a large enough sample size to know how effective the new coaching group is. I'd also remind you that the Brad Crouch trade shows our off field stuff still has a way to go. Adam Kelly has a debt to pay.

No, in my mind it was the Victorian media led by that dirtbag tosser of the highest order, Purple. He conducted a concerted campaign to make sure we never got pick 2 for Bcrouch. Compare that to what we got to the druggies were handed for the injury riddled Daniher. Kelly had to talk tough to try and bluff the Saints. They were standing fast because of the likely media backlash. The VFL house couldn't resist stopping a fair way around it. Notice Purple sucking to us after we beat Geelong. Two faced BS artist he is.

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Whoaaahhh, slow down... I'm just enjoying the fact that we've generated 61 scoring shots in the past two games. That is huge for us. The bigger picture will reveal itself in time (hopefully we are, at the very least, playing finals in 2025). It is nice to nail your top picks. But I don't believe it's the be-all and end-all, of a successful rebuild.

 

[Crow till I die]

Whoaaahhh, slow down... I'm just enjoying the fact that we've generated 61 scoring shots in the past two games. That is huge for us. The bigger picture will reveal itself in time (hopefully we are, at the very least, playing finals in 2025). It is nice to nail your top picks. But I don't believe it's the be-all and end-all, of a successful rebuild.

26 goals in our last 2 games combined and 35 points with such an inexperienced side. We have conceded 31 goals and 25 points in the same time but hell, with a 4 gamer and a 1st gamer holding down the key pillars in defense V Sydney and only 1 3 game key tall against Geelong that is no knock on them and they are only going to get better with experience.

By rights with the lack of experience in terms of key talls down back and the number of sub 10 game players across the ground, we SHOULD be getting towelled up - that we are not is a testament to both the game plan and the willingness of the side to get their hands dirty and look to play hard tough accountable footy as best they can. Onwards and upwards from here for sure

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Here's the premiers from the last 10 years and players on their list that were good or above players and 1st round draft picks at that club (i.e. not traded in). I reckon there's only one flag (Sydney 2012) that goes towards disproving my theory that you need to have a solid core (5+) high draft picks that you've developed and who are big contributors if you're going to win a flag. For us to win a flag *from this rebuild* (i.e. within the next 5 years - pretty generous) it's hard to see given our prior drafting where those core of top draft picks will come from.

Of course it can't be proven either way yet and I'd love to be wrong but I fear that despite the good works we're clearly starting to do now that our recent drafting will see us fall short. Please demonstrate where my assessment is wrong - do you not need the top draft picks or do we have them on our books now but they're just taking time...

Richmond (2017/18 & 2020): Cotchin (#2), Martin (#3), Vlastuin (#9), Reiwoldt (#13), Ellis (#15), Rioli (#15), Rance (#18)

West Coast (2019): Naitanui (#2), Masten (#3), Gaff (#4), Sheppard (#7), Sheed (#11), Duggan (#11), Hurn (#13), Shuey (#18)

Western Bulldogs (2016): Bontempelli (#4), Stringer (#5), Macrae (#6), Murphy (#13)

Hawthorn (2013/14/15): Hodge (#1), Roughead (#2), Franklin (#4), Lewis (#7), Rioli (#12), Birchall (#14),

Sydney (2012): McVeigh (#5), Bolton (#8), Jetta (#14)

Geelong (2011): Selwood (#7), Mackie (#7), Bartel (#8), Corey (#8), Varcoe (#15), Taylor (#17), Kelly (#17)

Put it this way, there is nothing (no concrete evidence) to suggest (yet) that Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Schoenberg, Berry, Fogarty can't become stars of the game. I'm a little less bullish about McAsey, McHenry & Jones, but still holding out some hope for their development. Not forgetting also that probably another half-dozen top-25 picks will come onto our books over the next few drafts.

 

[maxlilly]

If you count success as a premiership, history over the last 22 years says you're right, but we still have to try.
I can't see us creating a dynasty but we might have a breakthrough flag one day like the Bulldogs did or we should have done.
We won't do it by continually blowing 1st rounders though.

This is the issue for me.
I have been a big fan of Ogilvie but looking at our drafting over the last 7-8 years, we don't have any first rounders that look like carrying this team to any meaningful heights.
You cant rely on diamonds later in the draft to get you there.
Our recruiting of midfielders over this time has been diabolical.
And the way the club handled the 2018 draft was a diaster

 

[Johnny Rutten]

26 goals in our last 2 games combined and 35 points with such an inexperienced side. We have conceded 31 goals and 25 points in the same time but hell, with a 4 gamer and a 1st gamer holding down the key pillars in defense V Sydney and only 1 3 game key tall against Geelong that is no knock on them and they are only going to get better with experience.

By rights with the lack of experience in terms of key talls down back and the number of sub 10 game players across the ground, we SHOULD be getting towelled up - that we are not is a testament to both the game plan and the willingness of the side to get their hands dirty and look to play hard tough accountable footy as best they can. Onwards and upwards from here for sure

Port, Swans and Crows all lead the way with 61 scoring shots this year. We've had the most 'pure' scoring shots (i.e. minus rushed behinds) = 58. We know this will drop back, but right now, we have a game plan that is delivering scoreboard results, and not against too shabby opposition.

 

[Crow till I die]

Port, Swans and Crows all lead the way with 61 scoring shots this year. We've had the most 'pure' scoring shots (i.e. minus rushed behinds) = 58. We know this will drop back, but right now, we have a game plan that is delivering scoreboard results, and not against too shabby opposition.

Absolutely - you'd expect Geelong to play finals this year (if they don't they have fallen in an absolute screaming heap) and Sydney may e every chance to play finals so yep - we have done well in that regard V 2 better end sides. Now the next 4 weeks should tell us an awful lot about where things really sit

 

[Bob Neil]

IF the Club didn’t do anything else but get rid of Pyke and Burton... then you would have a point that the path they were on was doomed to fail. HOWEVER, they have done far, far more than that, with the latest changes to the coaching and admin panel only coming into effect for this year. The different game plan, the cohesiveness of the playing group, the buy in to what the coach is selling... are all positive steps towards a better future. To declare at this point in time, that this is doomed to fail is a ridiculous statement. And the “prove me wrong” even more so.

FACT: All recent premiership teams bar one have had a strong core of high end draft picks that they developed. Without that you can't/won't win a premiership.
GENERALLY HELD OPINION: The Crows' drafting of high end picks has been poor in the past five years.
IPSO FACTO: The Crows in their current incarnation won't win a flag.

It's called logic. The statements are all very reasonable (far from ridiculous). If you can't or won't engage in reasoned debate then stay out of the thread.

 

[Bob Neil]

I think we have different ideas of what "rebuild" means. If we rebuild the club to the point where we can contend for a flag but don't win one, would you classify that as a failed rebuild? I wouldn't. My idea of rebuilding is getting the club to a point where it can compete with the best sides in the league.

You can validly define success however you like...but I think I was pretty clear in the statement as defining it as a premiership.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

You can validly define success however you like...but I think I was pretty clear in the statement as defining it as a premiership.

I know. It's partly why you're getting a negative response from some people in here.

 

[Bob Neil]

Put it this way, there is nothing (no concrete evidence) to suggest (yet) that Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Schoenberg, Berry, Fogarty can't become stars of the game.

Indeed that's true but as they're all (excl. Fogarty) basically untried they still have (individually and collectively) a pretty high expected failure rate.

Not forgetting also that probably another half-dozen top-25 picks will come onto our books over the next few drafts.

That's also true but to win a premiership from this phase of rebuild (i.e. 5-7 years from when we commenced the rebuild) I think it's fair to say that these future draft picks aren't likely to be huge contributors as they'll be 1-4 year players. It's the first rounders we have on our books now that we need to be the nucleus and it's just hard to see that panning out for us. We'd be relying on the ones I listed originally from the past five years plus Talia, Milera, Smith & Doedee. Will 5+ of them be in our next premiership team...doubtful.

 

[Coopers]

how could ANYONE possibly know it will fail? Rebuilds aren’t set in stone, they are rolling, evolving entities that change as needs and requirements change.

IF this statement were true, then fu** it, let’s just scrap everyone and start again! See how ridiculous that is?

Well, it's not a SMART goal, so it's hard to tell.
But if we put some proper language and measures around it, we will be able to prove the OP right or wrong.

So I say the goal is: Win a final within 3 years, win a premiership within 5. It's the only way to be clear.

Keep in mind, if we win the granny in 6 years, then this rebuild has still failed, and next years one was successful, unless we change the goal during next years performance review with our manager, in which case all bets are off.

 

[John Who]

Here's the premiers from the last 10 years and players on their list that were good or above players and 1st round draft picks at that club (i.e. not traded in). I reckon there's only one flag (Sydney 2012) that goes towards disproving my theory that you need to have a solid core (5+) high draft picks that you've developed and who are big contributors if you're going to win a flag. For us to win a flag *from this rebuild* (i.e. within the next 5 years - pretty generous) it's hard to see given our prior drafting where those core of top draft picks will come from.

Of course it can't be proven either way yet and I'd love to be wrong but I fear that despite the good works we're clearly starting to do now that our recent drafting will see us fall short. Please demonstrate where my assessment is wrong - do you not need the top draft picks or do we have them on our books now but they're just taking time...

Richmond (2017/18 & 2020): Cotchin (#2), Martin (#3), Vlastuin (#9), Reiwoldt (#13), Ellis (#15), Rioli (#15), Rance (#18)

West Coast (2019): Naitanui (#2), Masten (#3), Gaff (#4), Sheppard (#7), Sheed (#11), Duggan (#11), Hurn (#13), Shuey (#18)

Western Bulldogs (2016): Bontempelli (#4), Stringer (#5), Macrae (#6), Murphy (#13)

Hawthorn (2013/14/15): Hodge (#1), Roughead (#2), Franklin (#4), Lewis (#7), Rioli (#12), Birchall (#14),

Sydney (2012): McVeigh (#5), Bolton (#8), Jetta (#14)

Geelong (2011): Selwood (#7), Mackie (#7), Bartel (#8), Corey (#8), Varcoe (#15), Taylor (#17), Kelly (#17)

Your arguments are flawed in several ways. Firstly, as stated by several others, we’ve only hit our rebuild in 2019-2020. It is easy way too early to judge things and what kind of trajectory.

Secondly, you can see how these recent years of premiers often have 3-4 top 8 picks during the preceding draft years. You are equating the early first rounders to the late first rounders, which is clearly a false assumption.
Our recent 1st round picks:
2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)
Picks in the teens are often solid players, but no guarantee superstars. So we should have more hopes on Thilthorpe, McAsey and Jones rather than McHenry or Galluci. Hopefully we can have another shot at 1 or 2 more top 5 picks, which is the aim to get more of a higher chance of the elite potential.

Lastly, you’re timing is actually off, because already we are seeing drastic improvements in the endeavours, defensive pressures as well as scoreboard pressures. Furthermore, we actually beat a Grand Finalist from last year, and we lost to a team last week who beat a Semi Finalist of last year (and was second in the minor rounds). So far in the first 2 rounds, there has been no shame on display at all (apart from shit goal kicking last weekend).

So Bob Neil, how about a different take, can you prove to me we’re on the wrong track for a rebuild? Or what can we do now to “get back on track?”

 

[Alwaysacrow]

I think it's encouraging that at the end of 2020 and now the first two rounds of 2021 we're (finally!) seeing some positive signs of a rebuild under Nicks that - whilst still underway - is starting to deliver some improvement.

However, sadly, I think this current rebuild will ultimately fail insofar as it won't deliver a premiership for the simple reason that our recent (past five years) drafting (esp. first rounders) will be shown to have been poor.

I think history shows that premierships are built on a nucleus of top talents acquired via the draft which are supported by various other mechanisms (FA, other trades, lower draft picks inc. rookies, non-footy backgrounds, etc.)...and that's even before you look at coaching, fitness, culture, etc.

You don't necessarily have to hit a home run on all of those areas but I think that if the core (i.e. drafting top picks) is hollow then the whole thing won't work. Have a look at our first round draft picks (per Wikipedia) from the past five years and tell me if I'm wrong...

2016: Gallucci (#15)
2017: Fogarty (#12)
2018: Jones (#9), McHenry (#16)
2019: McAsey (#6)
2020: Thilthorpe (#2), Pedlar (#11), Cook (#25)

Gees, I think you're jumping the gun a tad there.
Gallucci, agree fail.
Fogarty, TBC. Let's wait and see till the end of this year at least, he'll get his chance.
Jones, very worried about him, maybe fail.
McHenry, showing good signs, way too early to make a call yet.
MacAsey, also a worry but let's wait and see.
The rest can you please wait until they've played a game before you write them off?
Overall too early to say our current rebuild will fail or not.
2021 has shown some promising signs even against the Swans which we could've pinched had we kicked straight.
Wait and see.