List Mgmt. List within a list 2.0 (players 25 and under)

[ferrisb]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).



Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

EDIT: Made some minor tweaks to classifications

 

[ferrisb]

Conclusions/analysis

• We have LOTS of kids (er der). Interestingly, we have 34 kids on our list vs 25 a season ago
  • Only 11 'oldies' left on the list
• Spine: Awesome
• Defenders: Really lacking smaller/rebounding options
• Mids: Lots of talent, but VERY young other than Cripps (with some late support from Gibbons/Deluca)
• Forwards: Really lacking smaller/pressure options

None of that is much of a surprise. But it is interesting to look at how the side looks after you take out the veterans.

 

[ferrisb]

Notes

• Ages are not as of today; pretty sure was at round 1, 2019
• Have tried to pick players in their preferred positions, but doesn't always work perfectly
• Unproven is defined as unproven at AFL level
• There's a little bit of projection going on; eg McKay is not a superstar (but projects to be). Stocker should be red under my definition, but he's obviously rated much higher
• Going backwards: I think Williamson (green to yellow) and Garlett (yellow to red) are the main ones to go backwards. Williamson would be green if not for injuries
• Gibbons: I know he has been selected every week this year, so you could call him best 22. But he's arguably not as safe long-term as Fisher, Setters, O'Brien etc

 

[T2B_]

I reckon Gibbons will quickly go from fringe to best 22.

Stocker will.... if he has luck with injuries, or lack thereof.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).

View attachment 721477

View attachment 721482

View attachment 721479

KEY: View attachment 721487

Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

My kingdom for a ruckman

 

[ferrisb]

My kingdom for a ruckman

And my horse for a small forward.

 

[ferrisb]

And my left <private body part> for a small defender....

 

[ferrisb]

I don't know other teams' demographics as well as ours, but I'd say that's a damn fine list.

Still a few of weaknesses, but that's a core to build on over the next 10 years.

Obviously we are still allowed to recruit and play mature players, but I like to keep an eye (or two) on the future when assessing the list.

 

[T2B_]

Also can't believe Doc is still only 25...

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I don't know other teams' demographics as well as ours, but I'd say that's a damn fine list.

Still a few of weaknesses, but that's a core to build on over the next 10 years.

Obviously we are still allowed to recruit and play mature players, but I like to keep an eye (or two) on the future when assessing the list.

100% ferris, we should be looking at 'mature' players under 25yo....the club has pretty much made that clear previously.

The players linked to us on this forum almost all fit into this demographic....Cogs, Papley, Martin, Butler, Cameron all 25yo or younger. I've probably forgotten a few more names. The exception is Sam Gray who turns 28yo before the next season....not really enthused with that possible trade.

 

[Blues_fest]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).

View attachment 721501

Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

EDIT: Made some minor tweaks to classifications

Awesome effort mate. Can’t argue with much. I’d prob have stocker instead of JG on field. Otherwise pretty on the money IMO. Exciting list for sure, and really shows we don’t need much to really reach that next level. SOS has smashed it out of the park.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ferrisb]

100% ferris, we should be looking at 'mature' players under 25yo....the club has pretty much made that clear previously.

The players linked to us on this forum almost all fit into this demographic....Cogs, Papley, Martin, Butler, Cameron all 25yo or younger. I've probably forgotten a few more names. The exception is Sam Gray who turns 28yo before the next season....not really enthused with that possible trade.

There's nothing wrong with playing veterans. And there's nothing wrong with recruiting mature players.

All team sports is a balance between winning now and keeping an eye on the future. We have had that balance more on the future in recent years.

All things being equal, I'd rather recruit a 22yo than a 28yo...... But if you think that 28yo can give you 4 seasons of good output you can't get elsewhere, and you don't overpay, then why not?

 

[ferrisb]

This leads me to a more generic/philosophical question...

If you could recruit

A) 22yo to give you 10 years of service
B) 27yo to give you 5 years of service AND THEN 5 years down the track another 27yo

IF the total cost of A = B, does it matter?

This is something I ponder a lot when looking at trading strategies. I think free agency has made option B a viable strategy (roughly Hawks/Geelong/NM model).

 

[gbatman]

Certainly a lot of work has gone into building that foundation that we didn't have.

Free agency and trading for good senior players hasn't been an option until now. Hopefully we can keep adding to this list and finish our development of these players really quickly.

 

[Duigan Alley34]

The best part about this list is that the core positions are stacked with superstar/future superstar and high level best 22 players.

Key position players look sorted long term, and we are reasonably stocked with good midfield prospects making up the core of our team.

This bodes well for us in that it is easier and far less expensive to trade for a best 22 small forward or defender than it is to acquire a good key forward entering their prime. It is also less detrimental to the team playing stop gap half forwards than it is in the midfield or key positions.

I look at this list of young talent and am extremely encouraged by our future.

 

[HBF]

I reckon Gibbons will quickly go from fringe to best 22.

Stocker will.... if he has luck with injuries, or lack thereof.

Gibbons has gotten better as the season has gone on. Fantastic pick up for someone who cost us nothing

 

[HBF]

And my horse for a small forward.

I've got my boots coach...

 

[JustaBattler]

This leads me to a more generic/philosophical question...

If you could recruit

A) 22yo to give you 10 years of service
B) 27yo to give you 5 years of service AND THEN 5 years down the track another 27yo

IF the total cost of A = B, does it matter?

This is something I ponder a lot when looking at trading strategies. I think free agency has made option B a viable strategy (roughly Hawks/Geelong/NM model).

Everything can be expressed as a an option or a sum of options - according to Black and Scholes etc ..

mature recruit has characteristics of lower risk to expected return V developing player who has more time and greater volatility realted to any demonstrated level of expected return

More successful sides (hawthorn/geelong) have thrown more dollars and high draft picks on developed players in order to benefit from (relatively) lower risk for a given level of expected performance AND (at the same time) invested in less developed players whose currency was (relatively) lower ( low draft picks ) - by providing development time....geelong are excellent at cutting players who they dont rate - despite evidence that players have ability....

The developed player(s) strategy or top up strategy - relies on a core of existing players, and ability to pay what is required and the ability to attract what is required.

Richmond and Bulldogs are (to me) more interesting....

Doggies ( for their ability to stock pick/find under developed players and develop them quickly) and Richmond - who are 'finding' players by looking outside the box - how/why/ did so many Clubs miss Sydney Stack? who is this new bloke ex prisoner they are bringing in? Richmond have been very creative...see the gun Sudanese ( forget his name) kid that is killing it after only 8 games...

there isn't a player at Richmond who is allowed to miss tackles consistently or not run each way or be below par in basic skill execution and still get a gig in AFL....they are at this stage because they have built genuine depth on their list and competition for places...hasn't happened overnight either.

 

[Soapy V]

Gibbons has gotten better as the season has gone on. Fantastic pick up for someone who cost us nothing

Brilliant pick up. I think he will replace Murphy. Underrated

 

[Soapy V]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).

View attachment 721501

Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

EDIT: Made some minor tweaks to classifications

WOW. Some body settle me down.

 

[ferrisb]

WOW. Some body settle me down.

I really should have dedicated this thread to you...

 

[Soapy V]

And my left <private body part> for a small defender....

I like Cottrell. Early days but impressive so far
Polson has another year so I'd try him in that role
Docherty SPS Newman Willo are good and Plowman can easily play on smalls

 

[Soapy V]

I really should have dedicated this thread to you...

Just need to warn me first. Been a big 24 hours on here

 

[Soapy V]

So, I ran a thread on this at the start of 2018 and thought it was time to revisit with a discussion of where our 'yoof' is at.

How many young ones do we have?
What positions do we have covered? Or not?
What is the quality of what we have?
What are we missing in our list demographic? Who is at risk of being squeezed out?

Here is how I see our current players 25yo and under (Docherty and younger FYI).

View attachment 721501

Ideally this thread is used more as a high level discussion of the questions I asked above. But if you want to argue that Setterfield is better than Fisher for example or Stocker should be red - not yellow - then don't let me stop you.

EDIT: Made some minor tweaks to classifications

Great Topic. My Take:

Will be guns, No doubt: Weitering Plowman Marchbank Cripps O'Brien McGovern Charlie Jack Cuningham TDK SPS Setterfield Dow Gibbons Stocker

Will be minimum good players: Williamson Macreadie (inj the issue) Kennedy Fisher Schumacher Goddard DeLuca

Doubtful but still a chance: LeBois Kerr Garlett Lang Polson Owies

I have NO idea: O'Dwyer BSOS

Great position to be in and many could improve dramatically as individuals and more so as a group

 

[HARKER]

It's not as much for the quantity of young players we have but for the quality......and we do have quality.
The balance of youth is quite good as most 'types' are represented favourably, except for a couple of spots which I feel will be filled come the trade period.

It's easy to drop in another 8 * 18 year olds if we wanted to, but it makes for little sense to do so.
Our quantity of project types is almost as far as you'd want to go, with the likes of BSilvagni, Finbar, Owies, Cottrell involved. That would do, although we are likely to rookie a player or two, but wouldn't even surprise at this stage, should they be a little older.

One thing I am a little concerned about is for the development of some, who under the new regime may not be part of the staple fixture, in Dow, Kennedy, Fishet and Cuningham in particular, as once roles start getting moved around, adapting to them isn't always easy.

Anyway, it shouldn't be an issue in the end as by the time Murphy & ECurnow are ready to move on, some of those players will be fitter, stronger and wiser to be deployed back into their favoured posts.