General Markets Talk

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Oil looks like it's gonna rise as well.

And US Treasuries/EM bonds are going through the roof.

Stock markets broadly look very bullish right now, and gold/silver look like rising again too.
 

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I understand what you're saying but you can sell and lock in the gain, pay the 25% tax on the gain and move that money into something else for a while (potentially another 12m+ cap gain benefit position) before moving that money back into the lithium stocks.

The money has to be moving the right direction all the time or you may as well just dump it on a gold brick for under the bed.

FMG has returned 42% in cap gain and dividend in four months. That's covid recovery numbers. Watching that opportunity while holding a stagnant stock waiting for years.
 
Let's look at it slightly differently.

If your little brother kicked over the table and all your stock fell into cash, would you buy your portfolio again? Or would you reallocate the resources?

I ask myself this question a bit because at least a quarter of my portfolio is growth stock I bought at around 0.4 that is now 2.8. As far as returns go it's doubled the last twelve months so I'm content but it's not paying me money, so it's going eventually.
 
Taylor said:
If your little brother kicked over the table and all your stock fell into cash, would you buy your portfolio again? Or would you reallocate the resources?
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I've used this analogy before and of course the answer is no it wouldn't have that lithium weighting.

Tax wise I would prefer selling into the next FY but that shouldn't overly influence decision making.
 
Taylor said:
I ask myself this question a bit because at least a quarter of my portfolio is growth stock I bought at around 0.4 that is now 2.8. As far as returns go it's doubled the last twelve months so I'm content but it's not paying me money, so it's going eveventually.
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What is it it.. why not just sell half.
 

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  • The ASX 200 finished up +120pts/+1.65% at 7377.
  • The Property sector was best on ground (+4.01%) while Tech (+2.90%), Materials (+2.35%) and Telcos (+2.21%) also stood out.
  • The worst sector, Staples, still managed a +0.63% gain
  • Australian bond yields followed their US counterparts lower, Aussie 3-years down 0.19% to 3.74% as more rate cuts get priced into the local market.
  • Interest Rate Futures are now pricing ~1.5% worth of cuts in the US in 2024 & 0.58% here in Australia. If that proves correct, the RBA cash rate will be 3.77% this time next year.
  • While we doubt that will actually happen to the extent it’s being priced, the move in global bond yields in the past 6-weeks, and specifically the last 24 hours, will show up in lower mortgage rates soon.
  • Equities love lower interest rates, as long as the economy doesn’t fall apart in the process, and that is exactly what the Fed alluded to overnight, growth remaining solid with inflation being tamed, rates could soon be cut.
  • Gold stocks were a standout as the precious metal enjoyed a big drop in the $US, Gold +$US42 overnight and edged higher during
 
Taylor said:
Are you in the hole on this?

Three years until returns would want to be a sizable and progressive gain until that point, otherwise you can send your money elsewhere for eighteen months to two years before coming back to the same point on the lithium stocks.
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No, it was always a long play for me. All of my lithium stocks are well into triple digit growth (PLS I bought at well under $1 averaged out for example) since I bought them so I am happy to continue to hold. If I sell I cop a fat whack of CGT even with the discount and I don’t need to cash right now so am happy to leave it in.
 
With the way things are going, uranium will trump gold, lithium and oil.

Russians threatening to pull enriched uranium exports to US if they sign off on the proposed import ban.

Tenex
 
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Kram said:
Make sure you ring a bell for everybody ;)
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Ha. It's a sacrifice of profits by not jumping in too early.
Timing of exits is even more difficult
 
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