Rumour Future of the club (Bevo, board, assistant coaches, football department)

[Doggies_13]

I'm making the point that 16 teams have worse percentages than us this season so far. Therefore, by definition, if you think we have deficiencies, do 16 other teams not have deficiencies yet somehow through 10 games have not had a better percentage than us?

"Every single team has deficiencies but they work on them or adjust their game plan to ensure that opposition can’t hurt them."

If this fundamentally matterered, or was somehow successful, they would have better points for and points against than us. They don't. So they can't be doing it very well. So the opposition is hurting them.

If at the end of the season we have the second best percentage that argument may stack up but based on the fact every team hasn’t played the same opposition or every team at least once then the fact we’ve played 4 of the bottom 5 currently suggests that could have an impact on why our percentage is that way.

 

[Doggies_13]

How many of those runs last year and the year before were as long as they were as we missed absolute sitters?? Even the longer ones this year

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Took long enough to collate that info sorry but from what I remember when collating that I would say we had a 2 behinds during at least 75% of the runs

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If at the end of the season we have the second best percentage that argument may stack up but based on the fact every team hasn’t played the same opposition or every team at least once then the fact we’ve played 4 of the bottom 5 currently suggests that could have an impact on why our percentage is that way.

AFL Projected Ladder - Squiggle

squiggle.com.au

This predicts the future results, which takes into account fixture quality. It is still predicting that by the end of the year we'll have the second best percentage in the league. It's not saying it's likely (obviously), but more likely for us than for any other team. Ironically, those models are still giving us a low to moderate chance of making finals at all. There is the realistic proposition we miss finals with the second-best percentage in the league, probably half a game behind 8th to one of the 4 teams that have a draw already.

 

[lachy]

Took long enough to collate that info sorry but from what I remember when collating that I would say we had a 2 behinds during at least 75% of the runs

No worries did a great job with the first list.

Unlike the 2021 grand final, in most multiple goals against games since we have missed a couple of sitters that would have either steadied us or kept us in the game.

In other words it is not simply defensive mechanisms it is also poor goal kicking that assists this stat

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Doggies_13]

AFL Projected Ladder - Squiggle

squiggle.com.au

This predicts the future results, which takes into account fixture quality. It is still predicting that by the end of the year we'll have the second best percentage in the league. It's not saying it's likely (obviously), but more likely for us than for any other team. Ironically, those models are still giving us a low to moderate chance of making finals at all. There is the realistic proposition we miss finals with the second-best percentage in the league, probably half a game behind 8th to one of the 4 teams that have a draw already.

The fact we play north twice in the last 9 games likely the factor

Plus we have 9 games against current top 10 teams plus Brisbane and Adelaide (away)

 

[_Mike_]

Power Rankings - Squiggle

AFL Power Ratings from the internet's finest models.

squiggle.com.au

Yet they lost to Hawthorn… go figure

 

[MrChristo]

Some of the comments are comical in here from the pro-Bevo mob.

When we lose it’s because we have a bottom 8 list and we aren’t underperforming. He can’t go out there and kick the ball for them.

When we win we hear how stat x y and z means we are a top 4 team that’s been unlucky in a few games. And he’s a coaching genius.

It’s a good laugh of a Sunday morning

That's just not true (from my pov anyway).

I was definitely leaning towards the "Bevo out" side, BUT...he [the coaching staff] have definitely tried something different this year. It's a different style. And despite what our eyes are telling us our forward line is working better than ever under Bevo.

When we lose to bottom 8 sides it's generally due to poor execution. (ie. Bad kicking for goal. Poor turnovers).

It's not "unlucky". Very few things are ever "unlucky".

Our list, and game style, and coaching is absolutely in the top half of the comp. Numbers don't lie. Eyes and brains do.

 

[theAthenian]

the harder the team the better we play its the Footscray way- has always been.
im confident we will beat Sydney ( as they are due for a poor one)
also im starting to believe we are running into form

 

[adogsfan5]

Certainly not hating how we’re playing gamestyle wise.

 

[Oliver G]

Expected score ladder at the end of R10...



1 game separating 2nd through 9th, shows just how even this season is and more importantly how bad some of our losses have been.

I think we'll better understand where we are truly at come bye round.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Expected score ladder at the end of R10...

View attachment 1994342

1 game separating 2nd through 9th, shows just how even this season is and more importantly how bad some of our losses have been.

I think we'll better understand where we are truly at come bye round.

What was the other game with the Geelong game that we were meant to win in expected score?

 

[Snarls Barkley]

What was the other game with the Geelong game that we were meant to win in expected score?

Essendon lol

 

[Oliver G]

What was the other game with the Geelong game that we were meant to win in expected score?

2024 - xMargin / Actual Margin
R1: -16 / -45 vs. Melbourne
R2: +42 / +48 vs. Gold Coast
R3: +42 / +76 vs. West Coast
R4: +7 / -4 vs. Geelong
R5: +1 / -29 vs. Essendon
R6: +33 / +60 vs. St. Kilda
R7: -19 / -24 vs. Fremantle
R8: -26 / -7 vs. Hawthorn
R9: +97 / +91 vs. Richmond
R10: +41 / +27 vs. GWS

 

[Anja_Nees]

On the current trajectory he is coaching out the year. While Darcy, Richards, West, O’Donnell etc are developing well this year it’s doing no harm. Kudos to him for trying things and seeing them work.

I thought if we missed the 8 he’d go, but now I think there is a chance he’d still survive to next year if the vibe late in the season is right (ie younger players have taken up the mantle and we finish the year well). If we make the eight he’s in for next year.

If he does survive though it creates an awkward problem. If we don’t re-sign him early it creates press every time we lose and if we do re-sign him then finish badly people will be up in arms.

 

[bobs head soup]

Yet they lost to Hawthorn… go figure

The top ranked team (Sydney) lost to Richmond, who are a bigger basket case than Hawthorn.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

On the current trajectory he is coaching out the year. While Darcy, Richards, West, O’Donnell etc are developing well this year it’s doing no harm. Kudos to him for trying things and seeing them work.

I thought if we missed the 8 he’d go, but now I think there is a chance he’d still survive to next year if the vibe late in the season is right (ie younger players have taken up the mantle and we finish the year well). If we make the eight he’s in for next year.

If he does survive though it creates an awkward problem. If we don’t re-sign him early it creates press every time we lose and if we do re-sign him then finish badly people will be up in arms.

I want him to be Sheedy MkII

 

[mattwa]

We have injected a lot of youth into the team and bevo was getting called crazy. I think his decisions have proven to be correct. This year's really wide open if we can get a little run on it could get interesting...

Next 2 years are wide open before the afl gifted gold Coast dynasty window opens up

 

[Anja_Nees]

We have injected a lot of youth into the team and bevo was getting called crazy. I think his decisions have proven to be correct. This year's really wide open if we can get a little run on it could get interesting...

Next 2 years are wide open before the afl gifted gold Coast dynasty window opens up

That’s where I’m at - from the start of the season he was trying to get young players into the side and made some pretty ballsy selection calls but quite a few are paying off. Obviously not every one will (ie Buku looked good but couldn’t keep it up).

If he’s looking after the best interests of the team long term then as long as we are generally putting in good performances we should not consider sacking him, and can review at the end of the season.

Where I got worried was when we lost those games to Essendon and Hawthorn but they’ve both been pretty good lately. Neither really compares to the Hawthorn/WC losses late last year.

The critical thing is that the group is clearly trying and the major concern was that he had lost the players. On the last two weeks that can’t really be the case at the moment.

 

[Next Waiting]

I want him to be Sheedy MkII

Imagine that. This thread could run for 25 years

 

[BEaston]

Expected score ladder at the end of R10...

View attachment 1994342

1 game separating 2nd through 9th, shows just how even this season is and more importantly how bad some of our losses have been.

I think we'll better understand where we are truly at come bye round.

That's crazy considering the general vibe what our season has been so far.

Some opportunities lost for sure.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Imagine that. This thread could run for 25 years

If it were 20 years of scratching our heads and imploding on here but 5 years with grand finals with say 3 flags I would absolutely take it.

 

[Anja_Nees]

The top ranked team (Sydney) lost to Richmond, who are a bigger basket case than Hawthorn.

Some wild results this year, which is why we all need to be careful not to read too much into a given week (win or loss).

 

[lachy]

On the current trajectory he is coaching out the year. While Darcy, Richards, West, O’Donnell etc are developing well this year it’s doing no harm. Kudos to him for trying things and seeing them work.

I thought if we missed the 8 he’d go, but now I think there is a chance he’d still survive to next year if the vibe late in the season is right (ie younger players have taken up the mantle and we finish the year well). If we make the eight he’s in for next year.

If he does survive though it creates an awkward problem. If we don’t re-sign him early it creates press every time we lose and if we do re-sign him then finish badly people will be up in arms.

I would have thought we would have learned from last time. If he is coaching next year wait until there is a substantial body of evidence until putting an offer in front of him, so do not see that as a awkward problem

 

[VitalDread]

Big credit to Lade and his midfield changes

The last couple of weeks, our biggest weakness of defensive transition and accountability has improved os much

 

[Anja_Nees]

I would have thought we would have learned from last time. If he is coaching next year wait until there is a substantial body of evidence until putting an offer in front of him, so do not see that as a awkward problem

Of course we would wait to see how 2025 went but if we were flying and decided to back him I don’t think you could leave it until year’s end.

For what it’s worth I think there will be a few clubs looking for a new coach next year. Potentially any of Port, Melbourne, Adelaide, Freo, St Kilda, Richmond, Hawthorn, West Coast and a few others could be looking depending on how the next 12 months go for them.

Might be that it’s a good time for a mutual parting of the ways - he’ll have a lot of opportunity - but if we decide he’s the guy there will be competition.