Expansion 3rd Western Australian club

[Coolangatta]

If any club should be the 3rd WA club it should be a new franchise called the Joondalup Jaguars

That's a cool name.

Joondalup v Fremantle is definitely a rivalry that could work, but whether they could convert Eagles fans is another thing. Tough nut to crack. Gonna be an interesting time when Tassie is in and team 20 talk really starts to ramp up.

 

[RedV3x]

How are West Perth struggling exactly?

You wear the colours and don't know ?

 

[RedV3x]

If the AFL want WA3 for team 20, what about East Perth

Little support

Sharks?

Already taken in the WAFL

training base and zone somewhere in the eastern suburbs/Swan area.

West Coast is coastal and Fremantle is on the coast, that indeed leaves the central and eastern suburbs.
That leaves "Perth" ready for the taking and lets Perth, East Perth and Swan Districts to support the Perth Panthers.

 

[killtaker1993]

How about Mandurah?

 

[Consolaçao]

Currently? I wouldn't say so.

But around 2045/50 when Team 21 could come in? Who knows. Depends how quickly Adelaide can grow.

Adelaide is projected to be as big as Perth is now, but it'll still be slightly smaller as a proportion of the Australian population.

Personally, if we're waiting until then, Auckland would have my vote for Team 22 (after Canberra and WA3).

IMO, the only realistic avenue to a third team is if it was a Norwood/Sturt inner south eastern suburbs thing.
The problem is that with every year that passes, the significance of those clubs and what they represent to the people of Adelaide diminishes and the probability of success declines.
And, as much as I’d like to see it, there are better expansion options.

 

[Consolaçao]

I'm perfectly fine if we do shut shop after Canberra.

But I still don't think the Sunshine Coast is that crazy of an idea after 2050. It'll have more people than the Gold Coast did when the Suns started, but no direct competition. And it's pro-NRL now, but it's pretty much going to double in size, largely fuelled by pro-AFL southerners. If the AFL put in the work in the meantime, started playing more and more games there, it could definitely be AFL-friendly enough for a team in 30 years.

I don't rate Newcastle highly for an AFL team, but still ahead of a third SA team.

Over half the nation’s population already lives in NSW and QLD, and that share is likely to grow. Having only 4 out of 20 teams in those states is something that needs to be addressed in coming decades.

 

[Coolangatta]

Over half the nation’s population already lives in NSW and QLD, and that share is likely to grow. Having only 4 out of 20 teams in those states is something that needs to be addressed in coming decades.

I wouldn't rule out a second Brisbane side for 2032 if footy in QLD is going well, considering the Olympics and the investment that'll be there.

It'd be a long play like the Giants and Suns where by the 2050s they would hope that side to be standing on their own two feet.

It's not what I think should happen, but the AFL is hellbent on growth in NSW and QLD, although that could still be achieved in the next two decades without expansion yet.

 

[Consolaçao]

I wouldn't rule out a second Brisbane side for 2032 if footy in QLD is going well, considering the Olympics and the investment that'll be there.

It'd be a long play like the Giants and Suns where by the 2050s they would hope that side to be standing on their own two feet.

It's not what I think should happen, but the AFL is hellbent on growth in NSW and QLD, although that could still be achieved in the next two decades without expansion yet.

QLD football seems to be going well, so maybe.
Definitely that over WA3.

 

[blackducks]

if we go to team 20 and if wa3 happens (which all the metrics support) then it would most definitely be called Perth. Not Joondalup or wafl side moving up. Can’t see any other region being able to support an AFL club or the AFL wanting to carry anymore teams.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I wouldn't rule out a second Brisbane side for 2032 if footy in QLD is going well, considering the Olympics and the investment that'll be there.

It'd be a long play like the Giants and Suns where by the 2050s they would hope that side to be standing on their own two feet.

It's not what I think should happen, but the AFL is hellbent on growth in NSW and QLD, although that could still be achieved in the next two decades without expansion yet.

The Lions' stadium capacity will be growing by nearly 40% with the redevelopment.

Have to give them at least a decade of consistently filling that up before moving for another Brisbane team.

 

[Coolangatta]

if we go to team 20 and if wa3 happens (which all the metrics support) then it would most definitely be called Perth. Not Joondalup or wafl side moving up. Can’t see any other region being able to support an AFL club or the AFL wanting to carry anymore teams.

I can. Canberra. He's probably tired of making the case but Canberra Pear makes compelling arguments.

If the league is to stay capped at 20 teams, or remain a 20 team comp for a long time (there's usually about a 15 year gap between expansion but if there's a round of 21-22 I suspect it won't happen until teams 19 and 20 are settled along with 17 and 18), then I hope it goes to ACT because they might get shafted for a focus on NSW and QLD and possibly NZ for teams 21-24.

 

[Coolangatta]

The Lions' stadium capacity will be growing by nearly 40% with the redevelopment.

Have to give them at least a decade of consistently filling that up before moving for another Brisbane team.

You would think so.

 

[blackducks]

I can. Canberra. He's probably tired of making the case but Canberra Pear makes compelling arguments.

If the league is to stay capped at 20 teams, or remain a 20 team comp for a long time (there's usually about a 15 year gap between expansion but if there's a round of 21-22 I suspect it won't happen until teams 19 and 20 are settled along with 17 and 18), then I hope it goes to ACT because they might get shafted for a focus on NSW and QLD and possibly NZ for teams 21-24.

I appreciate and respect the passion to grow our game in Canberra; North QLD; NSW and NZ. I really hope one day we are the dominant code in those regions. However WA is simply under-utilised and can certainly take on another team. I have spent some time over the years looking at and reading the financial position of other sporting codes in the above areas and they simply struggle with the ability to fund teams and organisations. An AFL team over the next decade will simply be too much.
in saying that the ACT needs the continued support of the AFL and I do hope in my life time we see an established team in that region.
cheers.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I appreciate and respect the passion to grow our game in Canberra; North QLD; NSW and NZ. I really hope one day we are the dominant code in those regions. However WA is simply under-utilised and can certainly take on another team. I have spent some time over the years looking at and reading the financial position of other sporting codes in the above areas and they simply struggle with the ability to fund teams and organisations. An AFL team over the next decade will simply be too much.
in saying that the ACT needs the continued support of the AFL and I do hope in my life time we see an established team in that region.
cheers.

How is WA more underutilised than Canberra? We're getting a FIFO team playing three games a year in Australia's richest and fastest growing state/territory.

Canberra has a strong footy history and we are just wasting it while the NRL has a full-time presence. AFL would likely be the clear no. 1 sport in Canberra if we had a team.

As for the financial position, I think we'd be just as capable as WA3.

Firstly, I reckon both teams would average about 20k (non-derby). That's not breakeven at Optus, even with the top bowl closed. And it'd look ugly AF. That'd be profit played at Manuka.

Secondly, as a "regional" team, we'll get more govt incentives. ACT govt funds national teams. Throw in clean stadium advertising and in-season stadium naming rights, and Canberra has a ~$5m/y headstart over WA3.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

You wear the colours and don't know ?

Clearly you are talking rubbish.
They are currently sound financially and one of the strongest clubs in the WAFL.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Little support



Already taken in the WAFL



West Coast is coastal and Fremantle is on the coast, that indeed leaves the central and eastern suburbs.
That leaves "Perth" ready for the taking and lets Perth, East Perth and Swan Districts to support the Perth Panthers.

Fantasy land

 

[Tigerlaird]

Perth Power's got a nice ring to it. Relocate Port over there.

 

[RedV3x]

Clearly you are talking rubbish.
They are currently sound financially and one of the strongest clubs in the WAFL.

Whatever, nowhere near having the nucleus for an AFL team.

 

[basashi]

There is no opportunity in Australia that is better than Joondalup for the establishment of a new club.

Its a btter option than Tasmania, the Gold Coast, Western Sydney, Darwin, Canberra or any other new site.

The opportunity to start a team in Joondalup is a better proposition then retaining quite a few of the current AFL sides.

Is it bad for my team? Undoubtedly.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Whatever, nowhere near having the nucleus for an AFL team.

AFL teams are made out of thin air and built with money.
WCE and Freo were created out of thin air.
No reason building an established club can’t work.
There is 12 established clubs in the AFL now that have all grown in size 10 fold since becoming a national club.

 

[RedV3x]

AFL teams are made out of thin air

No, with the exception of one AFL teams were made out of a demand for an AFL team.

and built with money.

Where's the money in Joondalup ?

WCE and Freo were created out of thin air.

No, they were built out of demand for and AFL club.
Fremantle and Port were built after the admittance of WCE and Port respectfully but there was still a residual demand
for an AFL team built on the encumbent not attracting all types.

No reason building an established club can’t work.

Established clubs attract a narrow fanbase.
Creating new fans in an established AFL region is problematical.

Any new club would have to be a consortium like Perth, Swans and Royals.
Any new club would have to be a region not fully serviced by existing clubs like Perth to the east.

There is 12 established clubs in the AFL now that have all grown in size 10 fold since becoming a national club.

 

[Coolangatta]

I really can't see there being a 3rd WA club as the AFL wants to grow the game in NSW and QLD. You'd think Canberra would be team 20, which will help draw in more support from regional NSW, and then perhaps if there are 21st and 22nd teams, they'd likely be based in NSW and QLD (if I were to guess, Newcastle/3rd Sydney and FNQ).

Beyond that, I wouldn't rule out NZ and NT as teams 23 and 24 (they would probably be the hardest to implement, hence take the longest). All of these options grow the game more than WA3 and SA3 ever would.

Yet, if you look at sites like Reddit, they get up in arms about NSW and QLD getting third sides and not WA or SA, but they're just not looking at it from a business point of view, rather a fairness/traditional based argument.

That's how I'd be looking at it, long-term, but we shall see.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I wouldn't rule out a second Brisbane side for 2032 if footy in QLD is going well, considering the Olympics and the investment that'll be there.

It took the NRL 35 years before they expanded from two to three clubs in SEQ, and that's while being the dominant code with all the media coverage and State of Origin being followed by the masses. Why would the AFL do the same in less time and without the same level of support? That's creating a financial black hole.

And if a third SEQ club were ever to happen, I think it would more likely be on the Sunshine Coast. The area is growing fast, doesn't have an NRL team and their presence won't harm the Lions the way it would with a second team in Brisbane.

 

[Coolangatta]

It took the NRL 35 years before they expanded from two to three clubs in SEQ, and that's while being the dominant code with all the media coverage and State of Origin being followed by the masses. Why would the AFL do the same in less time and without the same level of support? That's creating a financial black hole.

And if a third SEQ club were ever to happen, I think it would more likely be on the Sunshine Coast. The area is growing fast, doesn't have an NRL team and their presence won't harm the Lions the way it would with a second team in Brisbane.

All good points except I’m not sure about a third QLD side being the Sunshine Coast but I’ll sit up and take notice if they start using them as a secondary market.

I think it’d be North Queensland since they’ve already used Cairns and Townsville as secondary markets in the past and the Hawks might be restarting up there after Launceston. I think that signals intent.

Plus Demetriou has talked about a NQ side before and a few media figureheads have, too. SC is nowhere to be seen yet but that could change. But the AFL might feel they already have enough of a presence in SEQ with two teams.

I do think Canberra should be the 20th team.

I can’t see there being another QLD side for at least 30 more years.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

It took the NRL 35 years before they expanded from two to three clubs in SEQ, and that's while being the dominant code with all the media coverage and State of Origin being followed by the masses. Why would the AFL do the same in less time and without the same level of support? That's creating a financial black hole.

And if a third SEQ club were ever to happen, I think it would more likely be on the Sunshine Coast. The area is growing fast, doesn't have an NRL team and their presence won't harm the Lions the way it would with a second team in Brisbane.

The whole SEQ region is growing incredibly fast. Over the next 12 years, the population of each city is projected to grow by the following amount:

• Brisbane: 370k
• GC: 110k
• SC: 57k

It’s also worth noting that by 2035, the SC will have about 150k fewer people than GC did when the Suns entered the league. It is also a region with traditionally smaller interest in AFL footy than the GC and significantly less infrastructure in terms of community clubs.

The main argument in favour of a future SC-based club would be that there’s no competition from clubs in other codes - this reason alone is not a strong enough reason to base another club there. The case for the region will be stronger by the year 2050+; however, the case for a second Brisbane club will also be stronger as the city grows to 3m+ people and has a world class stadium that’s only used for 11 rounds of footy each year.

As I’ve said before, my tip for a 3rd SEQ club (if it eventuates) would be a Northern corridor club (like the Dolphins) playing most games at the Gabba, with 3-4 games on the Sunny Coast each year.