Expansion 3rd Western Australian club

[kranger]

Released today, ABS State populations. Next fortnight is city populations.

National, state and territory population, September 2023

Statistics about the population and components of change (births, deaths, migration) for Australia and its states and territories

www.abs.gov.au

This is why WA3 ranks highly.

 

[RedV3x]

This is why WA3 ranks highly.

behind Qld and NSW and why Tasmania and ACT are valid proposals.

 

[Walshawk]

Depends on who team 20 is.

So the way I see it, WA3 and SA3 are only possibilities as a "safe" option to even up the number of teams, so I cannot see either one of those being team 21.

If Canberra is team 20, I can see maybe Sunshine Coast being team 21, by around 2050s. If that's what happens, I think if there's no obvious candidate for team 22, then WA3 would fit perfectly. Could be a south-west team that plays big games at Optus.

If WA3 gets team 20, then I'm not sure who team 21 would. be. Surely Canberra, but if they don't get up for team 20, I'd be even more cynical than I already am. AFL shouldn't neglect Canberra but there's no promise they'll do the right thing.

In any case, if WA3 is team 20, teams 21 and 22 could be Canberra and Sunshine Coast, or SA3 if they want a safe option to go with Canberra. It's hard to say how it'll play out.

C’mon Coolangatta, I love your passion for expansion, but Sunshine Coast? Half the population of the GC, twice as spread out, and half as interested in AFL. No chance.

 

[Canberra Pear]

C’mon Coolangatta, I love your passion for expansion, but Sunshine Coast? Half the population of the GC, twice as spread out, and half as interested in AFL. No chance.

They're not suggesting it now, they're suggesting it decades down the track. A 21st/22nd team wouldn't come in before ~2050.

The Sunshine Coast Council is projected to have 660k by 2050. Noosa is an extra 80k. A Sunshine Coast team catchment would probably scrape into northern Brisbane/Moreton Bay, too, so probably a catchment close to 1 million.

It'll likely be a city driven by growth from the southern states, and without any real competition from other national competitions (other than netball). The NRL's priorities for expansion seem to be WA, Ipswich and NZ2, so the Sunshine Coast could be a chance to be first in a decent-sized Queensland city.

 

[Coolangatta]

C’mon Coolangatta, I love your passion for expansion, but Sunshine Coast? Half the population of the GC, twice as spread out, and half as interested in AFL. No chance.

Yeah, probably not. I know you've been saying for quite a while now if there's a 20th team, that could be it, and you might be right. I just hope if team 20 is the last we see (in my lifetime, possibly anyone's) that it's ACT, not WA3.

 

[Walshawk]

They're not suggesting it now, they're suggesting it decades down the track. A 21st/22nd team wouldn't come in before ~2050.

The Sunshine Coast Council is projected to have 660k by 2050. Noosa is an extra 80k. A Sunshine Coast team catchment would probably scrape into northern Brisbane/Moreton Bay, too, so probably a catchment close to 1 million.

It'll likely be a city driven by growth from the southern states, and without any real competition from other national competitions (other than netball). The NRL's priorities for expansion seem to be WA, Ipswich and NZ2, so the Sunshine Coast could be a chance to be first in a decent-sized Queensland city.

The Sunshine Coast isn‘t a city. That is the problem. Plus, it is very pro NRL. By then Melbourne will have 7m, and we love footy, so perhaps Melbourne should get a new side. At best, Sunshine Coast would do a quarter as well as Gold Coast ever will. And Newcastle, the most pro NRL town in NSW, just because there are a lot of people there, does not mean it is a good place for an AFL club.

My prediction after Tas in 2028 is Canberra after 2035, then no more clubs this century.

 

[Canberra Pear]

The Sunshine Coast isn‘t a city. That is the problem. Plus, it is very pro NRL. By then Melbourne will have 7m, and we love footy, so perhaps Melbourne should get a new side. At best, Sunshine Coast would do a quarter as well as Gold Coast ever will. And Newcastle, the most pro NRL town in NSW, just because there are a lot of people there, does not mean it is a good place for an AFL club.

My prediction after Tas in 2028 is Canberra after 2035, then no more clubs this century.

I'm perfectly fine if we do shut shop after Canberra.

But I still don't think the Sunshine Coast is that crazy of an idea after 2050. It'll have more people than the Gold Coast did when the Suns started, but no direct competition. And it's pro-NRL now, but it's pretty much going to double in size, largely fuelled by pro-AFL southerners. If the AFL put in the work in the meantime, started playing more and more games there, it could definitely be AFL-friendly enough for a team in 30 years.

I don't rate Newcastle highly for an AFL team, but still ahead of a third SA team.

 

[Walshawk]

I'm perfectly fine if we do shut shop after Canberra.

But I still don't think the Sunshine Coast is that crazy of an idea after 2050. It'll have more people than the Gold Coast did when the Suns started, but no direct competition. And it's pro-NRL now, but it's pretty much going to double in size, largely fuelled by pro-AFL southerners. If the AFL put in the work in the meantime, started playing more and more games there, it could definitely be AFL-friendly enough for a team in 30 years.

I don't rate Newcastle highly for an AFL team, but still ahead of a third SA team.

There is nowhere suitable to play @ Sunshine Coast. Money has just been spent on the rectangular stadium, so no prospects of any games there for quite a while.

 

[Coolangatta]

The Sunshine Coast isn‘t a city. That is the problem. Plus, it is very pro NRL. By then Melbourne will have 7m, and we love footy, so perhaps Melbourne should get a new side. At best, Sunshine Coast would do a quarter as well as Gold Coast ever will. And Newcastle, the most pro NRL town in NSW, just because there are a lot of people there, does not mean it is a good place for an AFL club.

My prediction after Tas in 2028 is Canberra after 2035, then no more clubs this century.

If ACT gets a team, there’ll still be rumblings of “What about the NT?” All you hear from media nufties is that NT would make the game truly national, apparently Canberra doesn’t exist.

I share your doubts about viability. Heat, extreme weather, tiny population, sparse, poverty.

But it’s still a popular choice with media mouthpieces and people online. I’ve seen a lot of “Darwin for team 20!” type posts.

Now no way NT should happen before ACT but if there is expansion beyond 20 teams, I bet there’d be a push for them. But the AFL won’t pay for it, they aren’t running a charity, they made that clear with Tasmania for a long time.

But even if someone’s going to prop that NT side up forever, by the time the 2050s come around, if conditions worsen up there, even the people who are pro NT now may change their tune.

 

[Walshawk]

If ACT gets a team, there’ll still be rumblings of “What about the NT?” All you hear from media nufties is that NT would make the game truly national, apparently Canberra doesn’t exist.

I share your doubts about viability. Heat, extreme weather, tiny population, sparse, poverty.

But it’s still a popular choice with media mouthpieces and people online. I’ve seen a lot of “Darwin for team 20!” type posts.

Now no way NT should happen before ACT but if there is expansion beyond 20 teams, I bet there’d be a push for them. But the AFL won’t pay for it, they aren’t running a charity, they made that clear with Tasmania for a long time.

But even if someone’s going to prop that NT side up forever, by the time the 2050s come around, if conditions worsen up there, even the people who are pro NT now may change their tune.

Nah. If the AFL wants a 20th team there will be a task force appointed to research all potentials. If/when Canberra gets team 20 it will be because it was clear that Darwin was/isn’t/not viable.

 

[Walshawk]

Where is the value for the AFL in WA3? WA has less viewers that SA despite a much larger population. Sure, crowds might be ok (compared to GC/GWS) but that money goes to the club.

 

[Coolangatta]

Where is the value for the AFL in WA3? WA has less viewers that SA despite a much larger population. Sure, crowds might be ok (compared to GC/GWS) but that money goes to the club.

Plus I think if there's a strong preference to stop the number of AFL teams from blowing out, then surely any new clubs would only come from markets that do not have a team representing them. Last I checked, we've got WA 2, ACT 0.

The 10-2 Vic disparity is too much; Gold Coast Kangaroos and Western Sydney Bulldogs/Saints would've scaled the balance better but what's done is done. They tried with GC, just not hard enough.

 

[Walshawk]

Plus I think if there's a strong preference to stop the number of AFL teams from blowing out, then surely any new clubs would only come from markets that do not have a team representing them. Last I checked, we've got WA 2, ACT 0.

The 10-2 Vic disparity is too much; Gold Coast Kangaroos and Western Sydney Bulldogs/Saints would've scaled the balance better but what's done is done. They tried with GC, just not hard enough.

North Sydney Kangaroos, Canberra Bulldogs, GC Suns and Tassie. 18 teams. Perfect.

 

[Coolangatta]

North Sydney Kangaroos, Canberra Bulldogs, GC Suns and Tassie. 18 teams. Perfect.

I was thinking back to when the AFL tried to relocate North to Gold Coast. Say that had gone through, but the AFL still want a Western Sydney club. Western Sydney Bulldogs, perfect fit: can keep same colours, mascot, club song.

Fast forward to now and Tassie's banging down the door to be club 17. In they come, late 2020s.

Enter team 18, Canberra Giants. Same colours, club song sound as GWS, but different lyrics.

 

[Canberra Pear]

There is nowhere suitable to play @ Sunshine Coast. Money has just been spent on the rectangular stadium, so no prospects of any games there for quite a while.

An AFL/cricket stadium is part of the plans for Aura, a massive development on the southern side of the Sunshine Coast. Not sure of the time frame though.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

There is nowhere suitable to play @ Sunshine Coast. Money has just been spent on the rectangular stadium, so no prospects of any games there for quite a while.

I’ve said for a while that if there’s a 3rd club in SEQ then I believe it would be better for it to be a Northern corridor club, incorporating the Sunny Coast (like the Dolphins), as opposed to a standalone club on the SC.

If team 21-22 is about 2050 then Brisbane will have about 3.5 mill people. Call the new club something like Moreton Bay, training base around Aspley. Play 8 games at the new Gabba and 3 on the Sunny Coast. Nice contrast to the Lions who are based in Springfield and potentially pivoting their focus towards the Western corridor, Ipswich and Southern Brisbane regions.

I feel that a standalone team on the Sunny Coast would be an absolute minnow compared to the Lions who would have a world class stadium and Australia’s 3rd biggest city all to themselves.

 

[Coolangatta]

I’ve said for a while that if there’s a 3rd club in SEQ then I believe it would be better for it to be a Northern corridor club, incorporating the Sunny Coast (like the Dolphins), as opposed to a standalone club on the SC.

If team 21-22 is about 2050 then Brisbane will have about 3.5 mill people. Call the new club something like Moreton Bay, training base around Aspley. Play 8 games at the new Gabba and 3 on the Sunny Coast. Nice contrast to the Lions who are based in Springfield and potentially pivoting their focus towards the Western corridor, Ipswich and Southern Brisbane regions.

I feel that a standalone team on the Sunny Coast would be an absolute minnow compared to the Lions who would have a world class stadium and Australia’s 3rd biggest city all to themselves.

Moreton Bay Sharks.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Moreton Bay Sharks.

Cool name. Bulls would be pretty good too.

 

[RedV3x]

Cool name. Bulls would be pretty good too.

Compromise then - Morten Bay Bull sharks.

 

[basashi]

the market is currently serviced at these rates (seats per 1000 metro residents per round)
Hobart based on future 11 games in 23k stadium. Ignores gather round

Melbourne 65.91
Adelaide 37.72
Hobart 45.51
Perth 26.97

Perth with third team 40.46

 

[kranger]

Talk of a WA3 team generally focuses on population. A lead contender is Joondalup, which would cover the northern suburbs of Perth.

If there was a WA3 team based in Joondalup, hopefully the two relevant local governments would help financially support the AFL team in its infancy, similar to how the TAS government will financially support the TAS AFL team.

The City’s of Joondalup and Wanneroo used to be one before Joondalup separated off in the 90’s. Combined they have an annual budget over $400m.

https://www.joondalup.wa.gov.au/city-of-joondalup-budget-2022-23-final

Budget 2023-24 - City of Wanneroo

Budget 2023/24

www.wanneroo.wa.gov.au

They could try and develop a business case to show the economic benefits having a local AFL team would generate, which would warrant their financial support of the team.

 

[RedV3x]

Talk of a WA3 team generally focuses on population.

Yes.

A lead contender is Joondalup,

No.

which would cover the northern suburbs of Perth.

No.

If there was a WA3 team based in Joondalup, hopefully the two relevant local governments would help financially support the AFL team in its infancy, similar to how the TAS government will financially support the TAS AFL team.

The City’s of Joondalup and Wanneroo used to be one before Joondalup separated off in the 90’s. Combined they have an annual budget over $400m.

Wanneroo would want the team to be called Wanneroo.
Wanneroo is the much stronger football region historically.

They could try and develop a business case to show the economic benefits having a local AFL team would generate, which would warrant their financial support of the team.

Joondalup has a WAFL team that is struggling and the North Western corridor is heavily WCE territory.

 

[Coolangatta]

If the AFL want WA3 for team 20, what about East Perth Sharks?

A lighter blue than Eagles with black, club song like the Royals but slight change to lyrics, training base and zone somewhere in the eastern suburbs/Swan area.

Eagles get north/central/west, Sharks get east, Dockers south.

Just an idea.

Have said before, would prefer Canberra and maybe WA3 as a south-west based team as part of expansion 21-22.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Yes.



No.



No.



Wanneroo would want the team to be called Wanneroo.
Wanneroo is the much stronger football region historically.




Joondalup has a WAFL team that is struggling and the North Western corridor is heavily WCE territory.

How are West Perth struggling exactly?

 

[Tigerlaird]

If any club should be the 3rd WA club it should be a new franchise called the Joondalup Jaguars