Expansion 3rd Western Australian club

[stallon]

You can't compare WA to NSW or ACT though, that's my point. In the eyes of the AFL they're not the same. The league are prepared to invest the funds into teams there because they grow the game. A 3rd WA team won't make the game much, if any, more popular over here.
And TBH, the AFL don't really care much about WA anyway. Games here are rarely put at locally convenient times, and the timezone advantage is totally ignored. They put no pressure on Channel 7 to put games on the main channel either.

Bottom line is that a 3rd WA team only becomes a serious option if it can come in and be viable from Day 1.

As I said in other comments, I dont care about how much the AFL dislikes anything more than a 90 min flight away. Im saying that a 3rd team in WA arguably is growing the game, because it allows a lot of WA fans who cant get memberships to gain access, and it fixes the comp somewhat in terms of fairness, same as my other comments have said.

There is no world where a NT, or Canberra team is more viable or advantageous than a 3rd WA team. The only states that have more room for growth than WA are NSW and QLD, both who are probably not ready for another team yet, not like WA or SA are

 

[stallon]

During the Covid hubs, with the crowds for neutral games, we potentially got some insight regarding WA’s appetite for additional content. For example, Geelong v Melbourne prelim 58,599; Richmond v Essendon Dreamtime game 55,656; Geelong v Collingwood (Covid reduced capacity) 22,077. These are some pretty impressive numbers.

Yes, WA is huge into footy and honestly does get disrespected a bit on the national stage, probably mostly due to the distance, which is somewhat fair.
We are the 4th most populous state, and the second biggest footy state in the country, a 3rd team is probably necessary, west coast are getting too big tbh(not that I mind, theyre the biggest club in the country), a 3rd team would take a bit of the excess away from west coast which is probably a good thing

 

[Bjo187]

For me, both options are appealing. W.A simply needs more teams, Canberra is long awaited.

If they could make both happen without going past 20 teams it would be ideal, that would take a relocation though. I actually think of all the relocation proposals for a Victorian team, Canberra is the most appealing as it's the closest option to Melbourne. The true die hards could actually drive there for a lot of games, plus it significantly increases the supporter bases of a few smaller Vic clubs.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

For me, both options are appealing. W.A simply needs more teams, Canberra is long awaited.

If they could make both happen without going past 20 teams it would be ideal, that would take a relocation though. I actually think of all the relocation proposals for a Victorian team, Canberra is the most appealing as it's the closest option to Melbourne. The true die hards could actually drive there for a lot of games, plus it significantly increases the supporter bases of a few smaller Vic clubs.

As I’ve said before, going from 2 x WA derbies per season to 6 just has to be appealing for all stakeholders as well. Team 20 will clearly be from one of these two options.

 

[Bjo187]

As I’ve said before, going from 2 x WA derbies per season to 6 just has to be appealing for all stakeholders as well. Team 20 will clearly be from one of these two options.

Yeah so two of the new Perth teams 11 home games at Optus stadium should effectively be sellouts from year 1.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yes theyre fighting a couple of well established teams, but WA is the fastest growing state in australia at the moment, and there is a lot of room to grow. At the current rate in 15 years WA will have about 1.5mil more people, lets just make it 1 mil, in case it slows dramatically. Canberra doesnt come close.

Fastest growing state*.

The ACT has been the fastest growing state/territory over the past two censuses.

By the medium series projections, from 2022 to 2038, WA will grow 19.65%, while the ACT will grow 24.32%.

I think its fair to say there is plenty more room to grow in WA than in ACT(who in the same 15 years, at the current rate of growth, would be to 600k population total).

Canberra is also much more than the ACT. We've got about 100k in our NSW suburbs. We're also the centre of the Capital Region, which will reach almost 900k in the next 15 years.

And if you get to count all of WA, some of which is 32 hours away, then we get to count all of Southern NSW which is the same territory the Raiders and Brumbies currently cover. That includes that footy heartland of the Riverina, which brings us up to 1.2-1.3m. Wagga is closer to Canberra than Devonport is to Hobart.

Much the same as what I said above, the population in WA will present far more opportunity for membership sales than anything Canberra will provide, even if Canberra people are on average more able to afford a decent membership. The population difference is just too great

But WA already has membership options. Just increase Optus to 70k (as it was designed to do) and increase potential seats by 20k per fortnight.

There is no world where a NT, or Canberra team is more viable or advantageous than a 3rd WA team. The only states that have more room for growth than WA are NSW and QLD, both who are probably not ready for another team yet, not like WA or SA are

I just gave that world. It's this world. A Canberra team would have a ~$5m-6m annual head start, richer fanbase, and actually grow the game. And gives all of southern NSW a team.

 

[stallon]

For me, both options are appealing. W.A simply needs more teams, Canberra is long awaited.

If they could make both happen without going past 20 teams it would be ideal, that would take a relocation though. I actually think of all the relocation proposals for a Victorian team, Canberra is the most appealing as it's the closest option to Melbourne. The true die hards could actually drive there for a lot of games, plus it significantly increases the supporter bases of a few smaller Vic clubs.

Agree, its hard when there a 20th team would make it such a nice round number, but more than 1 state needs the growth/expansion.
As much as the Vic supporters would fight it, relocating one or two VIC teams should really be explored again, as suitable candidates for a Canberra or future NSW/QLD teams

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Wouldn't a 3rd WA club hurt both The Eagles and Freo from a local talent/academy perspective?

 

[stallon]

Fastest growing state*.

The ACT has been the fastest growing state/territory over the past two censuses.

By the medium series projections, from 2022 to 2038, WA will grow 19.65%, while the ACT will grow 24.32%.

I went by the most recent numbers here National, state and territory population, March 2023 | Centre for Population which looking back to now probably isnt the best numbers to go by, but the general idea stands, WA will grow in population a lot more than the ACT will

.
Canberra is also much more than the ACT. We've got about 100k in our NSW suburbs. We're also the centre of the Capital Region, which will reach almost 900k in the next 15 years.

And if you get to count all of WA, some of which is 32 hours away, then we get to count all of Southern NSW which is the same territory the Raiders and Brumbies currently cover. That includes that footy heartland of the Riverina, which brings us up to 1.2-1.3m. Wagga is closer to Canberra than Devonport is to Hobart.

The ABS has the ACT at about 470k as of June this year, if we assume 25% growth over the next 15 odd years then thatll place it around 600k. Ok if you add in the surrounds, maybe the 1.2mil like you said. WA has a lot of people spread out, but the majority is in the Perth region. Perth metro is around the 2.1mil, and including nearby areas thats at least 2.6ish right now, in 15 years thats at over 3mil at the 20% you said.

GWS already covers a lot of the area the Canberra team would cover, the same as the WA teams cover WA, so its not really expanding the game as such, its just providing more access to games, which a new WA team would also provide.
There is merit to it, but I still think there is far more value to bring a 3rd team to WA, Canberra would be my 2nd choice for sure though.
My preference would be relocating a VIC team to the ACT however.

But WA already has membership options. Just increase Optus to 70k (as it was designed to do) and increase potential seats by 20k per fortnight.

West coast are getting 40k to games when theyre at the bottom of the ladder getting smashed each week, no other club has that kind of support. That extra 20k will help, but West coast will still max it out regularly once they start winning a few games again. I think you are underestimating just how big West coast is.

I just gave that world. It's this world. A Canberra team would have a ~$5m-6m annual head start, richer fanbase, and actually grow the game. And gives all of southern NSW a team.

A WA team will also have a somewhat of a head start, WA isnt a poor state by any means, a 3rd team here would be able to support itself almost straight away

 

[stallon]

Wouldn't a 3rd WA club hurt both The Eagles and Freo from a local talent/academy perspective?

More would have to be invested there for sure, but I dont think itll affect the other clubs too heavily. No new club would happen for a long time still, if at all

 

[Elmer_Judd]

More would have to be invested there for sure, but I dont think itll affect the other clubs too heavily. No new club would happen for a long time still, if at all

Agree. Maybe in another 40 years or so.

Still firmly believe we should have a NZ based team someday..

 

[stallon]

Agree. Maybe in another 40 years or so.

Still firmly believe we should have a NZ based team someday..

Thatd be cool.
The only issue with a NZ team, is its then an even longer distance for the WA teams to travel. If there was a 3rd WA team to ease the travel burden over the year I think id be all for it. They wouldnt be able to have home games at the usual evening prime time slot due to the time zone too, not sure how much this would matter though

 

[Canberra Pear]

I went by the most recent numbers here National, state and territory population, March 2023 | Centre for Population which looking back to now probably isnt the best numbers to go by, but the general idea stands, WA will grow in population a lot more than the ACT will

The ABS has the ACT at about 470k as of June this year, if we assume 25% growth over the next 15 odd years then thatll place it around 600k. Ok if you add in the surrounds, maybe the 1.2mil like you said. WA has a lot of people spread out, but the majority is in the Perth region. Perth metro is around the 2.1mil, and including nearby areas thats at least 2.6ish right now, in 15 years thats at over 3mil at the 20% you said.

My point is, Canberra is catching. And data suggests Canberra's numbers are being underestimated again. Canberra's growth was underestimated by more than 50% at the last census. Canberra had by far the most completed dwellings in the past year per capita (more than double WA's), which indicates our projections are again being underestimated.

But if Perth gets 1/7th of Perth, based on getting half of Freo, that's just over 300k in 2023. Even if you managed to carve out 1/5th of Perth, which would be a monumental feat, that's 425k. Less than the ACT, let alone Greater Canberra.

GWS already covers a lot of the area the Canberra team would cover, the same as the WA teams cover WA, so its not really expanding the game as such, its just providing more access to games, which a new WA team would also provide.

GWS is stretched too thin. They only managed a preseason game in Wagga when Manuka was busy. Wagga is essentially the same distance from Melbourne as it is to Sydney, which is why three quarters of southern NSW players associated with the Giants have moved to a Victorian club.

The Riverina is a contested area for multiple codes. It has an incredible footy heritage, but the Raiders are currently playing an annual game in Wagga. A Canberra team could actually play games in the Riverina and bring a team close to these players' hometowns.

There is merit to it, but I still think there is far more value to bring a 3rd team to WA, Canberra would be my 2nd choice for sure though.
My preference would be relocating a VIC team to the ACT however.

WA3 is my second choice for a team. It's the only other Team 20 that remotely makes sense.

What are your thoughts on a Victorian team in Perth? Could start with a couple of games against West Coast and Perth and slowly work up to a full-time presence.

West coast are getting 40k to games when theyre at the bottom of the ladder getting smashed each week, no other club has that kind of support. That extra 20k will help, but West coast will still max it out regularly once they start winning a few games again. I think you are underestimating just how big West coast is.

I'm not underestimating how big West Coast is, I'm correctly estimating how much capacity Freo still has. Especially if they increase capacity an extra 10k.

A WA team will also have a somewhat of a head start, WA isnt a poor state by any means, a 3rd team here would be able to support itself almost straight away

I'm not saying WA is poor. It'd have a head start over every other option (especially the NT).

But it would have a higher breakeven attendance, no special treatment with a boutique stadium little-to-no government funding, and (compared to Canberra), a less wealthy fanbase.

I'm not against a WA3 in the future, but Canberra makes so much sense, and it fills a gap and grows the game. Please don't make me live with only three games a year watching some FIFO team forever!

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Thatd be cool.
The only issue with a NZ team, is its then an even longer distance for the WA teams to travel. If there was a 3rd WA team to ease the travel burden over the year I think id be all for it. They wouldnt be able to have home games at the usual evening prime time slot due to the time zone too, not sure how much this would matter though

Valid points about the travel and distance.

Maybe only one WA club has to make an away trip to NZ per season (and they rotate it annually)

Been on a couple of away game trips in the A League to Wellington as a Melbourne City, fantastic town and a lot of the locals do watch footy there.

 

[Bjo187]

a lot of the locals do watch footy there.

Really? I've never heard this before.

 

[Coolangatta]

For me, both options are appealing. W.A simply needs more teams, Canberra is long awaited.

If they could make both happen without going past 20 teams it would be ideal, that would take a relocation though. I actually think of all the relocation proposals for a Victorian team, Canberra is the most appealing as it's the closest option to Melbourne. The true die hards could actually drive there for a lot of games, plus it significantly increases the supporter bases of a few smaller Vic clubs.

Round 1
Canberra Kangaroos
Perth Sharks

Round 2
Newcastle Saints
New Zealand
3rd SA

Round 3
Darwin Dingoes
Cairns Crocodiles

Would also like to see the Bulldogs move to Ballarat.

Relocating two Vic clubs would allow for 3 teams each in WA, SA, NSW, and QLD, plus 1 team each in TAS, ACT, NT, and NZ.

But no Vic club will agree to move unless they’re so ****ed they have no other choice.

In which case I think it’ll end up like this:

Team 20: WA3 or ACT
Team 21-22: NSW3 (Newcastle) and QLD3 (North Queensland)
Team 23-24: NT and ???

??? could be anyone of ACT, WA3, SA3, or NZ, depending on how team 20 plays out, but I’m confident that if there’s expansion in the 2050s, it’s going to come from NSW and QLD.

I think that’s their target and if they’re smart, Canberra would be on the agenda for growing the game in southern NSW. I’m sure Vic sides wouldn’t mind as it’s a short trip and that’s got to count for something with the AFL.

 

[stallon]

My point is, Canberra is catching. And data suggests Canberra's numbers are being underestimated again. Canberra's growth was underestimated by more than 50% at the last census. Canberra had by far the most completed dwellings in the past year per capita (more than double WA's), which indicates our projections are again being underestimated.

But if Perth gets 1/7th of Perth, based on getting half of Freo, that's just over 300k in 2023. Even if you managed to carve out 1/5th of Perth, which would be a monumental feat, that's 425k. Less than the ACT, let alone Greater Canberra.

I guess my mind has been set on only 1 new team, and its a lot easier to relocate a vic team to the act than it is to move it to WA

GWS is stretched too thin. They only managed a preseason game in Wagga when Manuka was busy. Wagga is essentially the same distance from Melbourne as it is to Sydney, which is why three quarters of southern NSW players associated with the Giants have moved to a Victorian club.

The Riverina is a contested area for multiple codes. It has an incredible footy heritage, but the Raiders are currently playing an annual game in Wagga. A Canberra team could actually play games in the Riverina and bring a team close to these players' hometowns.

I think I could be sold on this if GWS had more than 22k members, the lowest count in the comp by far

WA3 is my second choice for a team. It's the only other Team 20 that remotely makes sense.

What are your thoughts on a Victorian team in Perth? Could start with a couple of games against West Coast and Perth and slowly work up to a full-time presence.

I know some teams like North have decent followings over here, but not sure how viable itd be tbh. It wouldnt be an issue on WAs end, I think itd be selling the idea to the rest of the comp and the fans that would be the issue. I think itd be a lot easier for fans to swallow if their club is only moving up the road a few hours rather than across to the other side of the country.

I'm not underestimating how big West Coast is, I'm correctly estimating how much capacity Freo still has. Especially if they increase capacity an extra 10k.

Yeah freo wont sell out the 70k expansion too often, but they still averaged 41-42k at home in a year they finished bottom 5. If theyre in finals id expect them to push for 50k+ average

I'm not saying WA is poor. It'd have a head start over every other option (especially the NT).

But it would have a higher breakeven attendance, no special treatment with a boutique stadium little-to-no government funding, and (compared to Canberra), a less wealthy fanbase.

I'm not against a WA3 in the future, but Canberra makes so much sense, and it fills a gap and grows the game. Please don't make me live with only three games a year watching some FIFO team forever!

I think we have come to the conclusion theyre both good options, theyd have to be the top 2. At the end of the day its not up to us anyway. Best bet is 1 new team and 1 relocation from vic, who gets what is for the future to decide. Chances are neither of our choices get the 20th team anyway lol.

I do think more clubs should take advantage of other states "buying home games" like Tassy do. The AFL could push for it a bit more for sure. Its not exactly what you want, but would help to fill the gap in the meantime

 

[stallon]

Valid points about the travel and distance.

Maybe only one WA club has to make an away trip to NZ per season (and they rotate it annually)

Been on a couple of away game trips in the A League to Wellington as a Melbourne City, fantastic town and a lot of the locals do watch footy there.

Maybe doable if they scheduled this trip either right before or right after the bye. Could have the NZ team do the reverse trip to play the other WA team the other side of the bye, helps both sides then

 

[Canberra Pear]

I guess my mind has been set on only 1 new team, and its a lot easier to relocate a vic team to the act than it is to move it to WA

I think I could be sold on this if GWS had more than 22k members, the lowest count in the comp by far

I know some teams like North have decent followings over here, but not sure how viable itd be tbh. It wouldnt be an issue on WAs end, I think itd be selling the idea to the rest of the comp and the fans that would be the issue. I think itd be a lot easier for fans to swallow if their club is only moving up the road a few hours rather than across to the other side of the country.

Yeah freo wont sell out the 70k expansion too often, but they still averaged 41-42k at home in a year they finished bottom 5. If theyre in finals id expect them to push for 50k+ average

I think we have come to the conclusion theyre both good options, theyd have to be the top 2. At the end of the day its not up to us anyway. Best bet is 1 new team and 1 relocation from vic, who gets what is for the future to decide. Chances are neither of our choices get the 20th team anyway lol.

I do think more clubs should take advantage of other states "buying home games" like Tassy do. The AFL could push for it a bit more for sure. Its not exactly what you want, but would help to fill the gap in the meantime

I think the main difference between the two is a catered for and an uncatered for market.

At the moment, Canberra is seriously underserviced. WA is underserviced, but at least you get 22 games of your own teams.

I also think you've got the Suns and Giants' memberships mixed up. The Giants have 33k and have topped 30k for a few years now. The Suns have 23k.

 

[Coolangatta]

I guess my mind has been set on only 1 new team, and its a lot easier to relocate a vic team to the act than it is to move it to WA

I think I could be sold on this if GWS had more than 22k members, the lowest count in the comp by far

I know some teams like North have decent followings over here, but not sure how viable itd be tbh. It wouldnt be an issue on WAs end, I think itd be selling the idea to the rest of the comp and the fans that would be the issue. I think itd be a lot easier for fans to swallow if their club is only moving up the road a few hours rather than across to the other side of the country.

Yeah freo wont sell out the 70k expansion too often, but they still averaged 41-42k at home in a year they finished bottom 5. If theyre in finals id expect them to push for 50k+ average

I think we have come to the conclusion theyre both good options, theyd have to be the top 2. At the end of the day its not up to us anyway. Best bet is 1 new team and 1 relocation from vic, who gets what is for the future to decide. Chances are neither of our choices get the 20th team anyway lol.

I do think more clubs should take advantage of other states "buying home games" like Tassy do. The AFL could push for it a bit more for sure. Its not exactly what you want, but would help to fill the gap in the meantime

Yes, it's probably going to be the NT, then again it's not just the financial backing that they need from someone, but the stadium. If it's up to the NT government to fund a new stadium which would be mandatory, then it goes back to WA3 or ACT3. I can't imagine NSW or QLD getting a third team as early as the next decade.

 

[stallon]

I think the main difference between the two is a catered for and an uncatered for market.

At the moment, Canberra is seriously underserviced. WA is underserviced, but at least you get 22 games of your own teams.

I also think you've got the Suns and Giants' memberships mixed up. The Giants have 33k and have topped 30k for a few years now. The Suns have 23k.

yep youre right I got them mixed up, woops

 

[Bjo187]

To sweeten the deal for a Vic relocation to Canberra, the AFL could offer for them to retain 3 Vic home games per year. So say this is north, they get the 3 Vic home games and 4 or 5 away games in Melbourne per year. Then Canberra would get 8 home games. To push it up to 9, get gws to play a home game there each year.

So then we have:

Perth 11 new home games + 2 away = 13 new Perth games

GWS 10 home games, 1 away in Sydney = GWS 11 Sydney games

Canberra kangaroos: 8 home games, 1 away game in Canberra = 9 Canberra kangaroos games
Kangaroos Vic based: 3 Melbourne home games, 5 Melbourne away games = 8 Melbourne based kangaroos games per year.

More content in Perth, Sydney and Canberra, North get to increase their supporter base but still retain a presence in Melbourne. The distribution is then 11 interstate and 9 Victorian teams, with all important markets sufficiently covered. I would then get gold coast to play a game or two in cairns, and hawks or Melbourne a game or two in Darwin. The whole of the country would then be covered by the amount of content matching their population size.

 

[stallon]

Yes, it's probably going to be the NT, then again it's not just the financial backing that they need from someone, but the stadium. If it's up to the NT government to fund a new stadium which would be mandatory, then it goes back to WA3 or ACT3. I can't imagine NSW or QLD getting a third team as early as the next decade.

The NT is gonna have more issues than that, theyre gonna have real issues keeping players. GC and GWS had huge issues and theyre in much bigger, more built up areas. The gold coast has almost double the population the NT does.

Some early-mid 20s star on a million+ a year isnt going to want to stay in the NT if they can help it, playing home games in a 20-30k stadium in the heat, in a very small city, shame to say but it doesnt sound that appealing when there will be offers from other clubs.

Its a shame because it would really tie the comp together but there just isnt enough people there.

Agree about NSW and QLD, a bit too soon imo

 

[Coolangatta]

To sweeten the deal for a Vic relocation to Canberra, the AFL could offer for them to retain 3 Vic home games per year. So say this is north, they get the 3 Vic home games and 4 or 5 away games in Melbourne per year. Then Canberra would get 8 home games. To push it up to 9, get gws to play a home game there each year.

So then we have:

Perth 11 new home games + 2 away = 13 new Perth games

GWS 10 home games, 1 away in Sydney = GWS 11 Sydney games

Canberra kangaroos: 8 home games, 1 away game in Canberra = 9 Canberra kangaroos games
Kangaroos Vic based: 3 Melbourne home games, 5 Melbourne away games = 8 Melbourne based kangaroos games per year.

More content in Perth, Sydney and Canberra, North get to increase their supporter base but still retain a presence in Melbourne. The distribution is then 11 interstate and 9 Victorian teams, with all important markets sufficiently covered. I would then get gold coast to play a game or two in cairns, and hawks or Melbourne a game or two in Darwin. The whole of the country would then be covered by the amount of content matching their population size.

Roos fans would be spewing if they only got 8 Melbourne games per year as opposed to... what is it that they get now?

I just googled... 12 games. Didn't think it was that low.

It's not a bad proposal you've got, initially I thought it'd be cutting down from 15 or 16 games in Melbourne to 8.

Still, the big problem is, how do you make them move? You can't. Is there such a thing as an offer they can't refuse? Maybe, maybe not, but GC didn't work out for them.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

To sweeten the deal for a Vic relocation to Canberra, the AFL could offer for them to retain 3 Vic home games per year. So say this is north, they get the 3 Vic home games and 4 or 5 away games in Melbourne per year. Then Canberra would get 8 home games. To push it up to 9, get gws to play a home game there each year.

So then we have:

Perth 11 new home games + 2 away = 13 new Perth games

GWS 10 home games, 1 away in Sydney = GWS 11 Sydney games

Canberra kangaroos: 8 home games, 1 away game in Canberra = 9 Canberra kangaroos games
Kangaroos Vic based: 3 Melbourne home games, 5 Melbourne away games = 8 Melbourne based kangaroos games per year.

More content in Perth, Sydney and Canberra, North get to increase their supporter base but still retain a presence in Melbourne. The distribution is then 11 interstate and 9 Victorian teams, with all important markets sufficiently covered. I would then get gold coast to play a game or two in cairns, and hawks or Melbourne a game or two in Darwin. The whole of the country would then be covered by the amount of content matching their population size.

The AFL had a chance to strengthen NM’s ties with Canberra back in the mid 2000’s, but they encouraged them to ditch the capital in favour of the Gold Coast - we all know the rest. Despite their efforts in playing Canberra home games over a number of years, NM failed to gain much traction there (way less support than what GWS have there now) and this provided some extra incentive for them to leave Canberra. NM’s decision didn’t go down well in Canberra at all. Your proposal might have had a more positive reception back then, although now you have:

a) a club that doesn’t have fond memories about Canberra, is in a vastly improved financial position, and resolute about remaining a Melbourne-based club.

b) a region that rejected NM once before and virtually said “they’re not welcome back”.

Not exactly a match made in heaven