20th AFL Team

[Cubs2Lions]

7 game Darwin deal would be good, yes. Anyone got a billion to offer North?

Yeah I think NQ and Newcastle are unlikely.

It’ll probably be WA3 and either no more teams after that or not a 21st for 50 more years.

Ideally I’d like ACT, NT and NQ.

The other issue with WA3 is lack of draft zoning. A lot of WA players play over east. With a 3rd WA team, if they don’t put in a mechanism to keep more WA players from going interstate then it’ll weaken the teams even more, not that the AFL give a s**t.

Always thought a Northern Kangaroos team would be fascinating in the competition with their 5 biggest home matches being played in Melbourne while the rest up in Darwin / Alice Springs so it could help the club have an increased fanbase and financial situation in two different states and the sport would have a foothold in NT without committing full-time.

But after all, this is the AFL and they are more interested in greed than growth, just look at the Tassie debacle.

Don’t understand the hype behind WA3 tbh as the 20th entity and will probably be a Perth ……………. located in the Northern metro areas and would play all their matches in the shiny new Perth stadium for $$$$$$$$ as why would want officials wanna name a club called Joondalup when they can just name it something much more simpler.

Same with the hype of SA3 (Norwood), but because I live in Adelaide that I wouldn’t mind another club for more footy in the state alone even though it wouldn’t benefit any other states in the meanwhile.

Still think if Manuka Oval gets redeveloped or new Civic stadium built into a 20-25k stadium, Canberra would be my preference but they really need to kick GWS out of Canberra and play in their own state before any serious considerations are in place for ACT.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Canberra would be my preference but they really need to kick GWS out of Canberra and play in their own state before any serious considerations are in place for ACT.

No they don't. GWS continuing to play home games in Canberra, in addition to a 20th team playing all home games there, just makes a new stadium more viable.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

No they don't. GWS continuing to play home games in Canberra, in addition to a 20th team playing all home games there, just makes a new stadium more viable.

Interesting. Especially if Canberra plays a few games in Albury-Wodonga (Lavington is pretty much ready to roll), then the GWS games could ensure that the new Canberra venue has a full complement of games. Although, another option could be for GWS to just play those games in Albury-Wodonga instead since it’s still in NSW? Not sure if GWS would get any support in Canberra once the locals have a genuine home team to support though.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yeah but the overheads of playing games at Optus are much higher so a 12k crowd in Bendigo would most likely be more profitable than a 20-25k at Optus.

Good point. There was an article regarding the WAFL grand final saying they needed more than 20k to break even, then 25-30k to actually make money.

Also why a WA3 team needs to be guaranteed of crowds to be profitable.

I think a Canberra team getting 18k crowds at an upgraded Manuka would be similarly profitable to a WA3 team getting low-to-mid 30ks.

 

[burge13]

Why do we need 20?

The fixture is rooted atm. Having 19 might make byes easier while still having 9 games a week. Run it like the NFL does their bye instead of the shite we do

 

[Canberra Pear]

No they don't. GWS continuing to play home games in Canberra, in addition to a 20th team playing all home games there, just makes a new stadium more viable.

The main reason GWS are playing games in Canberra is the millions our government pays them every year. That money would go to a Canberra team if we got one.

As soon as that money dries up, the Giants have no reason to be in Canberra.

Canberra v GWS at Manuka should be a permanent fixture though.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Good point. There was an article regarding the WAFL grand final saying they needed more than 20k to break even, then 25-30k to actually make money.

Also why a WA3 team needs to be guaranteed of crowds to be profitable.

I think a Canberra team getting 18k crowds at an upgraded Manuka would be similarly profitable to a WA3 team getting low-to-mid 30ks.

Exactly. This is why Hawthorn and North were keen to keep shifting some of their low-drawing fixtures to Tassie each year, even after the attendances started declining. I can’t be bothered looking for it, but I’ve seen the break evens for Blundstone and UTAS before and they are ridiculously low.

To avoid the potential loss-making games that you have identified, if the decision was made to go with Joondalup as the 20th license, would there be anything stopping them from getting a minor refurb done of Arena Joondalup to have 3-4 of their lower-drawing games played there? WA ppl, how far off do you think it is from being a second tier AFL venue?

If it comes down to patchwork solutions like this, however, then the preference should be for Canberra to be #20, but that would be totally dependent on their ability to deliver a new/upgraded stadium.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Not sure if GWS would get any support in Canberra once the locals have a genuine home team to support though.

The main reason GWS are playing games in Canberra is the millions our government pays them every year. That money would go to a Canberra team if we got one.

As soon as that money dries up, the Giants have no reason to be in Canberra.

Canberra v GWS at Manuka should be a permanent fixture though.

It would still be profitable for all parties if GWS played a home game in Canberra against Canberra every year.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Why do we need 20?

The fixture is rooted atm. Having 19 might make byes easier while still having 9 games a week. Run it like the NFL does their bye instead of the shite we do

Additional content = additional revenue.

With 19 clubs, a 23 game season won’t work, so it’s more likely to increase to 24 games (they won’t reduce the number of rounds). 228 home and away games.

With 20 clubs, a 24 game season = 240 games. However, since we’ll retain Gather Round and clubs will need an even number of H&A games then there are a few options:

1. 25 game season (12 H, 12 A, 1 GR) = 250 games

2. 25 game season (11 H, 11 A, 3 GR). This was actually floated this week in the media and people thought it was crazy, but they must be considering it, cause it’s a viable way to schedule the additional content.

There’s no way they’ll stay at 19 clubs, when they can generate so many more games and money with a 20th.

Edit:

Based on my workings out for a 19 team, 24 game seasons, I can see us having 2 Gather Rounds when Tassie enters.

24 games = 11 H, 11 A, GR1 - South Australia, GR2 - WA/ Tassie / Qld-NSW.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It would still be profitable for all parties if GWS played a home game in Canberra against Canberra every year.

Not going to say no to 12 games in Canberra. The Giants continuing to play three games a year seems silly though.

 

[Coolangatta]

Not going to say no to 12 games in Canberra. The Giants continuing to play three games a year seems silly though.

If you guys do get a team, no way will GWS continue to play any games there, for the same reason North and Hawks won't play in Tassie after 2027.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Exactly. This is why Hawthorn and North were keen to keep shifting some of their low-drawing fixtures to Tassie each year, even after the attendances started declining. I can’t be bothered looking for it, but I’ve seen the break evens for Blundstone and UTAS before and they are ridiculously low.

To avoid the potential loss-making games that you have identified, if the decision was made to go with Joondalup as the 20th license, would there be anything stopping them from getting a minor refurb done of Arena Joondalup to have 3-4 of their lower-drawing games played there? WA ppl, how far off do you think it is from being a second tier AFL venue?

If it comes down to patchwork solutions like this, however, then the preference should be for Canberra to be #20, but that would be totally dependent on their ability to deliver a new/upgraded stadium.

That's interesting. North sure about Hobart, but somebody mentioned Hawthorn makes $125k per game on stadium signage. The Giants had a similar deal at Manuka. I would doubt such a deal exists for Optus. So the smaller stadiums definitely have their benefits.

One of the drawcards of WA3 is this amazing stadium of theirs being underutilised, but it'd be embarrassing for WA3 to have 15k in a 60k stadium against the Suns and Giants. But it'd also be hard to justify upgrading Joondalup for 3-4 games a year.

 

[Teen Wolf]

If you guys do get a team, no way will GWS continue to play any games there, for the same reason North and Hawks won't play in Tassie after 2027.

North Melbourne and Hawthorn don't have to find an alternative home ground around Easter. No comparison with the GWS situation.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

That's interesting. North sure about Hobart, but somebody mentioned Hawthorn makes $125k per game on stadium signage. The Giants had a similar deal at Manuka. I would doubt such a deal exists for Optus. So the smaller stadiums definitely have their benefits.

One of the drawcards of WA3 is this amazing stadium of theirs being underutilised, but it'd be embarrassing for WA3 to have 15k in a 60k stadium against the Suns and Giants. But it'd also be hard to justify upgrading Joondalup for 3-4 games a year.

That’s certainly an additional perk. If it wasn’t super expensive to refurb then they may be able to justify it. Just look at Mars Stadium and UTAS they host their 3-4 games with no worries. Other venues like Riverway in Townsville and Lavington in Albury have been developed for the grand total of 1 and 0 AFL games, so 3-4 games is about par for the course with a secondary venue. In saying this, it all comes down to the political will.

 

[Canberra Pear]

That’s certainly an additional perk. If it wasn’t super expensive to refurb then they may be able to justify it. Just look at Mars Stadium and UTAS they host their 3-4 games with no worries. Other venues like Riverway in Townsville and Lavington in Albury have been developed for the grand total of 1 and 0 AFL games, so 3-4 games is about par for the course with a secondary venue. In saying this, it all comes down to the political will.

Joondalup would require a bit more though. When you have a small, part-time capacity, you can get away with mostly hill. Neither Albury or Townsville have more than 1500 seats.

You'd think a Joondalup stadium would have to be 20-25k, so they'd need a much higher percentage of that to be actually seated.

Not impossible, but not as easy as the ones you've mentioned above.

 

[Daka]

GWS are basically at Canberra so that rules them out Darwin/NT are favs imo.

 

[Canberra Pear]

GWS are basically at Canberra so that rules them out Darwin/NT are favs imo.

By that logic, Tasmania shouldn't get a team because North plays in Hobart.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

GWS are basically at Canberra so that rules them out Darwin/NT are favs imo.

NT is the most advanced with their license bid and appears to have the highest level of government support of the contenders at this stage. The issue is that no one has seen anything yet to suggest that an NT club would be viable from a financial or practical standpoint. They’ve been working on a business case for years that hasn’t seen the light of day yet, so we’ll have to wait and see what that comes up with. I reckon the key will be for them to find a workable model for the Northern Australia concept because the NT is simply too small to do it alone.

 

[Coolangatta]

NT is the most advanced with their license bid and appears to have the highest level of government support of the contenders at this stage. The issue is that no one has seen anything yet to suggest that an NT club would be viable from a financial or practical standpoint. They’ve been working on a business case for years that hasn’t seen the light of day yet, so we’ll have to wait and see what that comes up with. I reckon the key will be for them to find a workable model for the Northern Australia concept because the NT is simply too small to do it alone.

And even then, money will still be a hurdle.

Reckon they'd need at least 1.5 billion, a billion minimum to cover the stadium in Darwin plus much more to meet other requirements.

7 games in Darwin is gonna mean 16-18 road trips, though. The ding dong media needs to point out this obvious travel barrier. If the model can lessen the impact somehow, who knows, but I don't see it.

 

[MelbourneGWS]

I think one of the main issues with Canberra as Team 20 is there is no strong push by the ACT Government for it, in contrast with the Tasmanian and even NT state government lobbying. With the $$ tied up on the trams, and the ongoing saga with the other codes about a new rectangular stadium, Barr and the ALP have other priorities- including ensuring that the Canberra United female soccer team does not fail and that any funding shortfall is not attributed to them in this election year

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

I think one of the main issues with Canberra as Team 20 is there is no strong push by the ACT Government for it, in contrast with the Tasmanian and even NT state government lobbying. With the $$ tied up on the trams, and the ongoing saga with the other codes about a new rectangular stadium, Barr and the ALP have other priorities- including ensuring that the Canberra United female soccer team does not fail and that any funding shortfall is not attributed to them in this election year

From an outsider looking in, that’s what worries me the most as well. There’s still time, but they need to get a move on. NT is going hard, AFL Cairns have signalled their intentions, Norwood is getting prepared with a bid, Joondalup Council has had a fair bit to say, yet we’ve heard crickets from the ACT. I guess they don’t want to rock the boat since they have a long term deal in place with GWS.

 

[speedpeck23]

And even then, money will still be a hurdle.

Reckon they'd need at least 1.5 billion, a billion minimum to cover the stadium in Darwin plus much more to meet other requirements.

7 games in Darwin is gonna mean 16-18 road trips, though. The ding dong media needs to point out this obvious travel barrier. If the model can lessen the impact somehow, who knows, but I don't see it.

No doubt NT would have to have a club structure and playing fixture like no other. Majority of their income would have to come from share of broadcast rights, government backing and because they would likely have a high profile ( unique club, isolated but iconic location) they may get significant corporate support.

Their fixture could be radical....early season training base in Adelaide...first few games out of Adelaide and then be based in Darwin playing all their home games...from May to August...11 home games over 16 weeks.. less travel demand...better connection to supporter base.. . local easily accessible small capacity roofed stadium...facilitates home matches played any night thru the week ...optimizes broadcast income.

If it could be made to work it would be great for NT and the game.

 

[Canberra Pear]

From an outsider looking in, that’s what worries me the most as well. There’s still time, but they need to get a move on. NT is going hard, AFL Cairns have signalled their intentions, Norwood is getting prepared with a bid, Joondalup Council has had a fair bit to say, yet we’ve heard crickets from the ACT. I guess they don’t want to rock the boat since they have a long term deal in place with GWS.

This article suggested there are movements behind the scenes.

"prominent figures behind the scenes are believed to be also eyeing off an AFL team long term."

Don't know how much to read into it (it is the Daily Mail after all), but it would make sense.

The ACT Government has to balance both the relationships with the Giants and the rectangular sports. If they were making moves, there's no point making waves and upsetting stakeholders for something that's not guaranteed.

 

[Canberra Pear]

No doubt NT would have to have a club structure and playing fixture like no other. Majority of their income would have to come from share of broadcast rights, government backing and because they would likely have a high profile ( unique club, isolated but iconic location) they may get significant corporate support.

A part of the AFL being willing to fork out the extra cash for the Giants and Suns is that they, in theory, will one day become self-reliant. The Gold Coast is heading towards one million people, and Western Sydney so huge that the Giants only need a portion to survive.

So while the AFL would have to be extremely generous (an NT team would need almost the same amount as the Suns and Port combined), they'd have to commit to funding them forever, because an NT team doesn't have that same potential for self-reliance.

I would definitely get behind an NT team if they got in, but I just can't see the economics working.

 

[speedpeck23]

A part of the AFL being willing to fork out the extra cash for the Giants and Suns is that they, in theory, will one day become self-reliant. The Gold Coast is heading towards one million people, and Western Sydney so huge that the Giants only need a portion to survive.

So while the AFL would have to be extremely generous (an NT team would need almost the same amount as the Suns and Port combined), they'd have to commit to funding them forever, because an NT team doesn't have that same potential for self-reliance.

I would definitely get behind an NT team if they got in, but I just can't see the economics working.

Agree. The case for NT is all about creating a vehicle to help disadvantaged communities. You need everyone on board.. Govt, Corporate . If the Giants and Suns end up being self reliant (that's a big IF) as you say then AFL will have taken off truly in NSW and Qld and the game may well be in a position to seriously look at NT.