No Oppo Supporters 2020 General AFL Discussion

[scaryness]

Didn't watch much foooty media this year.

Has the idea that Jordan Ridley

14

Jordan Ridley

Age

25

Ht

195cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.7

4star

MG

244.8

4star

D

17.0

4star

K

11.9

5star

HB

5.1

3star

M

6.7

5star

T

1.7

3star

MG

265.4

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

4.2

4star

M

5.2

5star

T

1.4

4star

MG

208.2

4star

is already one of the best defenders in the comp got any momentum yet?

 

[Kirkswan]

Watch them turn it on the Swans with the recommendations. HQ and the big Victorian clubs don't like to be told what to do by the colonies.

If it's truly independent, I'll think you'll be surprised by the outcome.

I would expect that the interstate clubs will be strengthened in some manner, and I would expect that the Victorian clubs to be reduced by at least two, with perhaps options of going to Tasmania and less likely (imo) NT. I would expect that the number of clubs to be reduced to 16 maximum.

Alternatively conferences may be the next big thing, but I'm not thinking that the league is big enough in NSW or QLD for that yet...

But some very good things could come from this if they are truly looking at the best way to grow the league!

 

[Kirkswan]

I got a pin... how cool is that!

 

[Ticky009]

I got a pin... how cool is that!

View attachment 1030022

I really like the 'Bloods' above the red V

 

[elastic]

I was sure Dick Dastardly & Mutley would win a Wacky Race eventually.

Sheesh they couldn't even stop a pigeon.

 

[ScottBo]

Sad to report it appears TheKing! is dead, to Bigfooty that is. I spotted on another thread he had put in a request to delete his account and a moderator had actioned it.
I'm not sure about everyone else, I always enjoyed Kingy's take on things, and appreciated his input and humour on this board. Don't want to try and guess what is happening in people's lives, but I hope all is well in his royal Tassie household. Hopefully he'll crown a new avatar and be back sooner rather than later.

 

[Bonz]

Sad to report it appears TheKing! is dead, to Bigfooty that is. I spotted on another thread he had put in a request to delete his account and a moderator had actioned it.
I'm not sure about everyone else, I always enjoyed Kingy's take on things, and appreciated his input and humour on this board. Don't want to try and guess what is happening in people's lives, but I hope all is well in his royal Tassie household. Hopefully he'll crown a new avatar and be back sooner rather than later.

His still alive, active and appears to be happy on Facebook. So no need to worry there.

I imagine he just wants a break or to change things a bit.

 

[RW]

His still alive, active and appears to be happy on Facebook. So no need to worry there.

I imagine he just wants a break or to change things a bit.

I wish him all the best, I enjoyed our banter (even most of it was just me repeating the same Tasmanian joke over and over).

 

[Millky95]

I wish him all the best, I enjoyed our banter (even most of it was just me repeating the same Tasmanian joke over and over).

You got to tell it twice: once for each head

 

[Angry Red Bull]

The pandemic and the split it caused between posters made it very personal in the end and the king was frontline with all that. He was prolific with posts so will be missed

 

[Kennedy Parker]

Sad to report it appears TheKing! is dead, to Bigfooty that is. I spotted on another thread he had put in a request to delete his account and a moderator had actioned it.
I'm not sure about everyone else, I always enjoyed Kingy's take on things, and appreciated his input and humour on this board. Don't want to try and guess what is happening in people's lives, but I hope all is well in his royal Tassie household. Hopefully he'll crown a new avatar and be back sooner rather than later.

I wouldn't bet on it being the last we see of The King. He generally has an annual hiatus between December-January and people temporarily deleting their account to take a break from the place isn't uncommon.

 

[Jewelsbon]

Sad to report it appears TheKing! is dead, to Bigfooty that is. I spotted on another thread he had put in a request to delete his account and a moderator had actioned it.
I'm not sure about everyone else, I always enjoyed Kingy's take on things, and appreciated his input and humour on this board. Don't want to try and guess what is happening in people's lives, but I hope all is well in his royal Tassie household. Hopefully he'll crown a new avatar and be back sooner rather than later.

That explains it! I sent him a PM a couple of days ago and got no response.
I hope he returns, he is my favourite poster on here and I shall miss him.

If you are lurking Kingy, please rethink, as you can see you will be missed.

 

[bedford]

His still alive, active and appears to be happy on Facebook. So no need to worry there.

I imagine he just wants a break or to change things a bit.

Same , he's okay as far as i know. We battle , but still mates as far as i know

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Leave....don’t..leave.....think..............rethink........delete......reestablish. Free world whatever will be will be. Meh. How does the song go......

“Always look at the bright side to life do do do do do do do do”

 

[Kennedy Parker]

I've had to do some mod stuff here. Can y'all give it a rest? It's holiday season and I'm busy watching Australia flop in the cricket...

 

[Mister B]

I got a pin... how cool is that!

View attachment 1030022

I wonder if they are sending them out in batches or if Aus Post have done an Aus Post. My mum got hers prior to Christmas. I haven't seen mine.

 

[Kirkswan]

I wonder if they are sending them out in batches or if Aus Post have done an Aus Post. My mum got hers prior to Christmas. I haven't seen mine.

Probably age before beauty!

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Swans 2021 odds


Premiership 81-1
Top 4. 13-1
Top 8. 5-1

I think all 3 are overs. The bookmakers go on ‘form’. they rarely factor in instantaneous rebound unless wins are cemented.

We have been nominated by many as having or amongst the best young list in afl. We also have a history of finals. Our ladder position wasn’t a true reflection of ability because of the number of close losses. I think rebound is likely this year. To what extent is the question. 5-1 sounds very appealing to me. Trying to be objective I think truer price is probably 6-4

 

[Kiama Chris]

Swans 2021 odds


Premiership 81-1
Top 4. 13-1
Top 8. 5-1

I think all 3 are overs. The bookmakers go on ‘form’. they rarely factor in instantaneous rebound unless wins are cemented.

We have been nominated by many as having or amongst the best young list in afl. We also have a history of finals. Our ladder position wasn’t a true reflection of ability because of the number of close losses. I think rebound is likely this year. To what extent is the question. 5-1 sounds very appealing to me. Trying to be objective I think truer price is probably 6-4

At this time of year:
Premiership 17-1
Final Four 7-2
Final Eight 5-4
Without the bookies cut.
All your odds look good to me. A tenner on each I think.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Swans 2021 odds


Premiership 81-1
Top 4. 13-1
Top 8. 5-1

I think all 3 are overs. The bookmakers go on ‘form’. they rarely factor in instantaneous rebound unless wins are cemented.

We have been nominated by many as having or amongst the best young list in afl. We also have a history of finals. Our ladder position wasn’t a true reflection of ability because of the number of close losses. I think rebound is likely this year. To what extent is the question. 5-1 sounds very appealing to me. Trying to be objective I think truer price is probably 6-4

For a large majority of the season we were just above Adelaide who were on zero wins, i think the odds are about right honestly.

IMHO 5-1 to make the 8 is pretty generous we will be even younger heading into 2021.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

For a large majority of the season we were just above Adelaide who were on zero wins, i think the odds are about right honestly.

IMHO 5-1 to make the 8 is pretty generous we will be even younger heading into 2021.

If all the teams were of equal quality then on probability adding to 1 the odds about any team making the 8 is 5-4. The question then is to what extent do we negatively deviate from that equal position. There are several factors influencing that probability positively

- our list quality
- our draft acquisitions
- the closeness of our 2020 contests eg Geelong
- expected growth of inexperienced players
- the unexpected jump of several teams recently on similar bases

imo we have way better chance than 1 in 5 to make 8 of 18. I think the market is gross overs. But that’s just my opinion

 

[Kiama Chris]

In fact, bookmakers set odds according to the flow of money. They start where they think is reasonable, favouring themselves of course. If they set 5-1 to start their evaluation will be 6-1 or more. If people bet more on other teams than us, our odds will go out.
I'm sure there are many on this site who know much more about betting than I do but I know that knowledgeable info only counts insofar as it influences the betting.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

In fact, bookmakers set odds according to the flow of money. They start where they think is reasonable, favouring themselves of course. If they set 5-1 to start their evaluation will be 6-1 or more. If people bet more on other teams than us, our odds will go out.
I'm sure there are many on this site who know much more about betting than I do but I know that knowledgeable info only counts insofar as it influences the betting.

Absolutely they frame their market to constantly have the probabilities add to more than 1 to keep a margin for themselves. The run of mill bookmakers adjust their odds so that whatever outcome occurs they maintain profit as you said. The really good ones research and set their market based on what is assessed as true market and take risks (a set against those they perceive can’t win). They still adjust like the others but give slight overs on those they think can’t win. Those ones put massive resources into research. Difficult to apply the same mantra to afl of course because to do so they would need to assess respective quality of team lists etc. possible but more difficult

Remember in my youth Mark Read the famous bookmaker during a Sydney carnival set aside $100k as a charitable gift only he bet the $100k in piecemeal during the course of 5 weeks carnival approx. 5 minutes before each race he would reveal his true market odds for 4 major chances (which deviated markedly from the bookmaker odds) and would bet heavily on those where there was overs in the market in comparison. The greater the deviance the greater the bet on a sliding scale. He was in essence setting his market as true market and betting strategy on the back of it. At the end of the 5 weeks he had accumulated close to $300k if I recall which was then the donation. It was simply amazing to watch. At the start of the process he had a handful of punters watching and by its end there were hundreds waiting for the reveal moment 5 minutes to race.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Absolutely they frame their market to constantly have the probabilities add to more than 1 to keep a margin for themselves. The run of mill bookmakers adjust their odds so that whatever outcome occurs they maintain profit as you said. The really good ones research and set their market based on what is assessed as true market and take risks (a set against those they perceive can’t win). They still adjust like the others but give slight overs on those they think can’t win. Those ones put massive resources into research. Difficult to apply the same mantra to afl of course because to do so they would need to assess respective quality of team lists etc. possible but more difficult

Remember in my youth Mark Read the famous bookmaker during a Sydney carnival set aside $100k as a charitable gift only he bet the $100k in piecemeal during the course of 5 weeks carnival approx. 5 minutes before each race he would reveal his true market odds for 4 major chances (which deviated markedly from the bookmaker odds) and would bet heavily on those where there was overs in the market in comparison. The greater the deviance the greater the bet on a sliding scale. He was in essence setting his market as true market and betting strategy on the back of it. At the end of the 5 weeks he had accumulated close to $300k if I recall which was then the donation. It was simply amazing to watch. At the start of the process he had a handful of punters watching and by its end there were hundreds waiting for the reveal moment 5 minutes to race.

Wow!

 

[Wolftone]

Swans 2021 odds


Premiership 81-1
Top 4. 13-1
Top 8. 5-1

I think all 3 are overs. The bookmakers go on ‘form’. they rarely factor in instantaneous rebound unless wins are cemented.

We have been nominated by many as having or amongst the best young list in afl. We also have a history of finals. Our ladder position wasn’t a true reflection of ability because of the number of close losses. I think rebound is likely this year. To what extent is the question. 5-1 sounds very appealing to me. Trying to be objective I think truer price is probably 6-4

I think we will make finals. One of our problems was fading late in matches. That is a youth problem. We are a year older, abate drafting at least 3 players who will play plenty of game time this year. Our list is building up to optimum age. What's more there are precedents of young sides making it before acceptances, the Baby Bombers, Brisbane, Hawthorn 2008. So let's go for a wonderful wild ride with the Cygnets

On JAT-L29 using BigFooty.com mobile app