Review 2019 AFL National Draft

[briztoon]

Oh, I’ve no clue on your nga zone, so I have no idea if you’ve been sold a lemon in that regard, but that seems the general consensus from some of your posters reading the 2020 draft thread.

 

[Sillygit]

Moneyball is usually a comedic or derogatory term applied to analytics in sports.

For reference, I’m a big fan of analytics in sport.


I’m not here for point scoring (not usually a recipe for success when on an oppo board), or sh!t stirring. If you want a genuine discussion, I’m happy to engage.

I’d say drafting Jack Mahony was an analytics based pick. Though in fairness, predraft the 30/35 pick range wasn’t the best spot the be picking, as it’s about where the talent was perceived to drop off, and teams would look to draft for need, rather than best available.

Over all I found your boards discussion predraft pretty spot on, and inline with my view of your picks before the draft.

I’ve also read your boards 2020 draft thread. Some pretty good discussion about next years draft pool there, if you can get past your nga zone persecution complex.

You are definitely here for point scoring amd s**t stirring, you're just bad at it.

 

[briztoon]

I really wouldn’t think applying the term “Moneyball” to our drafting of Mahoney is anymore or less relevant than to any other drafted players. Statistical metrics are used to draft all players. Highest ranked player available in a place we have a list hole (actually one of the higesy ranked players in the draft).

Perez missed a year so I don’t honk he fits the other “Moneyball” pick given lack of metrics available. Comben is nothing special statistically but was drafted on potential, again not “moneyball” related.

Not sure money ball can apply to a draft. Moneyball would be trading Goldy while we had preuss for Maximum gain. Or bringing in a solid Defender in Walker in a spot we are vulnerable in with injuries.

I addressed the Comben and Perez picks in a recent reply to another poster.

In regards to analytics, it’s only one piece of the puzzle. Just as skills or biometrics or athletic ability, are only one piece to the puzzle.

I actually really rate the Perez pick. I believe he represented good value in that part of the draft.

My only comment would be that I believe Elijah Taylor, though not fitting a need, represented better value, though there is a well discussed risk with Taylor.

I do believe Mahony is an analytics type selection. He might fit a need, and statistically at U18’s he looks good.

My genuine question is if Mahony has the athletic tools to be successful, and is he able to transfer his production at U18 level to AFL.


But as I mentioned elsewhere, you were drafting at a position where there was a perceived drop off in the talent available.

And this is where people who follow drafts like to discuss how teams approach drafting strategies here. So it’s not North related specifically, but more about drafting philosophies.

Should teams in such a position draft the perceived sliders who are viewed as higher talents, regardless of list fit, or do teams draft for need, even though it might be a player who might struggle to “make it” at league level.

I definitely believe teams draft for need and list fit over talent earlier than what they make out.

You here a lot of list managers and recruiters talk about drafting best available talent in the first round etc, but then the best talent often, surprisingly fits a list need.

Or teams try and trade up or back to where the best talent fits a list need.

 

[briztoon]

You are definitely here for point scoring amd s**t stirring, you're just bad at it.

I think you and I have a different view of point scoring.

If I wanted to engage in such an activity I would reply to Snake_Baker (no offence intended here Snake). But that’s not the type of discussion I enjoy.

 

[Mav]

I would have literally collapsed if I didn't get your opinion on our draft. It means SO much to me.

This from someone that quotes their own tweets. Gold!

 

[briztoon]

If the top ten next year are as good as last year's, as Pykie suugests, any pick in the top ten will be gold. Chance of a big win on the Deez deal.

lots of posts I would have liked to have commented on at the time in this thread, but it’s kind of lost a month and a half later.
But the above post stood out for a different reason.


I haven’t read Pykie mention next years potential top 10 is on par with the 2018 drafts top 10. Would definitely be the first person I’ve read who has that view.

The most common view I’ve read is that next years draft is heavily compromised due to all the nga’s, father sons, etc.

Next most common view I’ve read is that it’s perceived to be weaker and/or shallower than this year. No one in the Rowell or Walsh class up top, etc.

I don’t have much of a view one way or other yet, other than we’re likely to see more KPP’s in next years first round, and that it’s the depth of the later part of the first round and in to the second that will be impacted mostly by the compromised nature of the draft.

Always keen to hear/read some ones opinion about the draft pool. And I know Pykie watches the U18’s.

 

[perplexed]

For some reason I couldn’t jump to the end of the thread. Every time I tried, I just kept being taken to page one.

So I figured I’d try posting, to see if I could get to the last page.

Just to relieve the boredom of the offseason I’m reading every teams draft thread from the first draft day until the last post.

Yours is hilarious. Especially since your club didn’t draft any of players you guys wanted. A couple of definite money ball picks there.

I would love to know what the Lions offer was for your pick 31 that your recruiting team turned down.

If it included pick 33 I don’t understand the logic of rejecting any trade, because neither us (Brisbane) or Melbourne were taking Comben, so you still most likely would have drafted the same 3 players. Brisbane was after Trent Rivers.

If the deal proposed was 33 and a future fourth for 31 then if North thought Melbourne were interested in any one of Comben, Perez or Mahony it would make sense to reject it.

 

[King Corey]

Oh, I’m fully on board that the nga’s are bs. You only have to visit the draft and trade board to read my opinions on that.

Without making it personal, kids line Tarryn Thomas and Quaynor highlighted the micky mouse aspect, in that neither North or Collingwood put any serious development in to either player in the 15 months between setting up your nga academies and drafting those two players.

So far the nga’s have been about identifying talent already in the pathways and rorting the system, rather than going out and bringing in kids new to the game and developing them outside the traditional pathways.

You are aware Victorian, SA and WA clubs are made to jump through arbitrary ethnicity hoops?

I'm sure you're aware that a kid with talent pops up in your zone and voila, academy.

 

[briztoon]

You are aware Victorian, SA and WA clubs are made to jump through arbitrary ethnicity hoops?

I'm sure you're aware that a kid with talent pops up in your zone and voila, academy.

Happy to discuss on the draft board. The Sydney thread has pages already.

Club Focus - Sydney Academy in 2020 another bonanza

Sydney's controversial academy is poised to produce another pair of bright prospects at next year's draft, Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell, They look brilliant. Campbell looks like Nathan Buckley II. The academies are just the zone system but with systemic inequality.

www.bigfooty.com

 

[The Y Factor]

Oh, I’m fully on board that the nga’s are bs. You only have to visit the draft and trade board to read my opinions on that.

Without making it personal, kids line Tarryn Thomas and Quaynor highlighted the micky mouse aspect, in that neither North or Collingwood put any serious development in to either player in the 15 months between setting up your nga academies and drafting those two players.

So far the nga’s have been about identifying talent already in the pathways and rorting the system, rather than going out and bringing in kids new to the game and developing them outside the traditional pathways.

I don't know a great deal but he was certainly training in preseason with our guys for a couple of years and he was awarded a scholarship while under 15 by North/Tasmania.

He was certainly on the radar.

Probably wasn't known that he was awarded a scholarship:
http://www.lordstavernerstas.org.au/football-scholarships.html
Two more AFL stars in the making.

Awarded to promising young footballers demonstrating commitment, respect, open communication, honesty, work ethic, attitude and discipline. Chosen by a panel from AFL Tasmania and the North Melbourne Football Club.

The scholarships are aimed at providing one or more footballers financial assistance that will enable access to the AFL Tasmania’s football development programs such as State, Indigenous, Multi-cultural, Female Football Academies or other football development programs.

This year's scholarship winners were selected based on their known characteristics and commitment to the AFL Tasmania Academy values.

Each scholarship includes: $500 (courtesy of Lords Taverners), a framed North Melbourne Football Club certificate, and attendance for 3 guests at today’s breakfast and reserved seats to the match against Richmond on May 9, and a North Melbourne Football Club merchandise pack.
Taryn Thomas
Taryn is currently the only U15 age player in the Tasmania U16 academy squad. Taryn has been picked as part of the Flying Boomerangs squad in 2015. He has also been selected as captain of this team. He is a member of the North Launceston FC where he has played junior football over the last two years. Taryn has a bright future ahead of him with his continued dedication and willingness to improve.

Tyran Mansell
Tyran was a member of the Flying Boomerangs squad in 2014 and is a member of the Tasmanian U16 academy squad. Residing in Longford and having come through their junior ranks he has recently started playing Development League with the Western Strom FC. Tyran is a very talented young player who with continued focus on training and professionalism can become a very good player in the next few years.

 

[briztoon]

I don't know a great deal but he was certainly training in preseason with our guys for a couple of years and he was awarded a scholarship while under 15 by North/Tasmania.

He was certainly on the radar.

That’s commendable by North, and certainly demonstrates their commitment to footy in Tas, and helping kids that might not have had the financial resources to follow their dreams.

But it’s also before the nga’s were initiated by the AFL.

Also Tarryn was already considered a gun and known to recruiters at that age.

However, like I said previously, the discussion about nga’s isn’t solely about TT and North. Like the discussion about Ugle-Hagan in your 2020 draft thread, many teams are benefiting from kids already involved in elite pathways.

 

[briztoon]

If the deal proposed was 33 and a future fourth for 31 then if North thought Melbourne were interested in any one of Comben, Perez or Mahony it would make sense to reject it.

Seeing as Melbourne had already drafted their ruck in Jackson and small forward in Pickett, the only player they possibly might have selected would have been Perez.

Both Brisbane and Melbourne obviously rated Rivers higher who plays a similar role, and Brisbane rated Smith higher, who’s more of a defender than Perez.

However I do believe Melbourne wanted more of an outside runner/defender like Perez, than a stopper like Smith.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Both Brisbane and Melbourne obviously rated Rivers higher who plays a similar role, and Brisbane rated Smith higher, who’s more of a defender than Perez.

So what?

They're both spud clubs so that means nothing.

 

[briztoon]

So what?

They're both spud clubs so that means nothing.

 

[hilly]

Rivers can't defend his own shadow. Makes JMac look like Scarlett.

 

[King Corey]

Happy to discuss on the draft board. The Sydney thread has pages already.

Club Focus - Sydney Academy in 2020 another bonanza

Sydney's controversial academy is poised to produce another pair of bright prospects at next year's draft, Errol Gulden and Braeden Campbell, They look brilliant. Campbell looks like Nathan Buckley II. The academies are just the zone system but with systemic inequality.

www.bigfooty.com

Cool, so you were being mischievous then.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Cool, so you were being mischievous then.

Hey, have you ever been to the Brisbane board?

I can understand it if some of them elope.

However, that still doesn't mean they're worth anything to us.

 

[briztoon]

Cool, so you were being mischievous then.

I’m lost here. How is taking a non North topic off the North board being mischievous?

Was never my intention to discuss the NGA’s here.

Seriously thought I was doing the right thing.

 

[Pykie]

Mostly I’m not sold on Jack Mahony, for much the same/similar reasons posters have used to explain why Bianco slid. Most noticeable he lacks pace for the position he’s going to be asked to play, and he lacks penetration/distance on his kicking.

Mahony is quite likely going to be the pick of the bunch. It's evident in the interviews I've listened to with our team, we even rated him much higher than what we took him at. Hence why we traded back into the 30's for most of our picks, as we thought we'd get Mahony and Perez anyway.

He was also an absolute gun u/16, was viewed as high as a top 5 pick through the early age groups.

Have you seen Champion Data's assessment of him?

He was their third ranked player at the U//18 championships and the 6th ranked player in the TAC Cup in 2019.

Statistically he had the highest score involvement and score assist averages since they have been measuring the metric at the nationals.

He missed the Nab League finals with injury and played a lot of school football which let him fly under the radar a fair bit.

I'm expecting him to play senior football in 2020.

As for his athleticism, he certainly isn't rapid, but he's a similar styled player and build to Tom Papley, Jade Gresham and Jack Higgins - All of whom certainly aren't super athletic or quick, but all who have been similar accumulators at lower levels and are all very good creatively going I50 and all play that high half forward role.

They have translated to the higher level just fine.

 

[Pykie]

lots of posts I would have liked to have commented on at the time in this thread, but it’s kind of lost a month and a half later.
But the above post stood out for a different reason.


I haven’t read Pykie mention next years potential top 10 is on par with the 2018 drafts top 10. Would definitely be the first person I’ve read who has that view.

The most common view I’ve read is that next years draft is heavily compromised due to all the nga’s, father sons, etc.

Next most common view I’ve read is that it’s perceived to be weaker and/or shallower than this year. No one in the Rowell or Walsh class up top, etc.

I don’t have much of a view one way or other yet, other than we’re likely to see more KPP’s in next years first round, and that it’s the depth of the later part of the first round and in to the second that will be impacted mostly by the compromised nature of the draft.

Always keen to hear/read some ones opinion about the draft pool. And I know Pykie watches the U18’s.

The top 10 is definitely not weaker next year than this year. People automatically see NGA and Academy aligned players next year and think that removes them from the pool. It doesnt.

The compromised picks have nothing to do with the strength of the draft pool.

I rate the top 10 next year up there with 2018.

They are literally calling Ugle-Hagan the next Franklin, he kicked 4 in a Nab League final as an underager. He may not even go in the top 3. I'm not sure what expectations you have of Rowell and Walsh long term......

Those recieving clubs still have to acquire picks to get these players and a lot of them will want to acquire picks before their bids, to try to double up, like Fremantle and GWS did this year.

It's no coincidence that the 3 sides to acquire the biggest warchest of picks for next year, are all teams without major NGA and Academy prospects.

North, Geelong and Adelaide.

The real value comes for teams desperate for picks to get ahead of bids. Like teams were able to manipulate GWS, who paid an absolute small fortune in points for Lachie Ash in the end.

It will give those clubs flexibility to hit the sweet spots in the draft order of the rest of the fully available players.

 

[Pykie]

Personally I thought Nick Bryan was a better ruck option if you wanted a developing ruck, but hasn’t shown the ability to play up forward that Comben has.

I also believe looking for a tall prospect in the first round next year would have been a better option than picking a tall outside the first round in this years draft.

We selected Comben as a tall forward, not as a ruckman. It's been confirmed by the club, he's to be developed as a key forward.

I wasn't especially thrilled with the pick at the time, but it's definitely grown on me.

Now having seen him at training against some AFL quality defenders a few times, I'm pretty stoked with it actually, he's going to be a player, his athleticism is off the charts and he's going to fill out into a very big boy based on his frame.

It should coincide well with the back end of Brown's career and will enable him to develop slowly at VFL level.

We generally go alright at spotting and developing diamond in the rough tall forwards, i.e Brown & Larkey.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I'm expecting him to play senior football in 2020.

Big call.

 

[Pykie]

Big call.

I'm not expecting him to become a mainstay.

But I certainly think he's capable of 1-10 games next year.

There's definately room for his type and Luff even admitted we lack his type of small forward in the side. We actively hunted Mahony as we thought he was the best small forward in the drat to fit Shaw's game plan.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I'm not expecting him to become a mainstay.

But I certainly think he's capable of 1-10 games next year.

There's definately room for his type and Luff even admitted we lack his type of small forward in the side. We actively hunted Mahony as we thought he was the best small forward in the drat to fit Shaw's game plan.

Okay. At least you put something on the table around here, and I respect that.

It's just that this scenario would probably not bode well for Hosie and/or Taylor, and I can't see the kid matching Hosie's fitness yet.

 

[briztoon]

The top 10 is definitely not weaker next year than this year. People automatically see NGA and Academy aligned players next year and think that removes them from the pool. It doesnt.

The compromised picks have nothing to do with the strength of the draft pool.

I rate the top 10 next year up there with 2018.

They are literally calling Ugle-Hagan the next Franklin, he kicked 4 in a Nab League final as an underager. He may not even go in the top 3. I'm not sure what expectations you have of Rowell and Walsh long term......

Those recieving clubs still have to acquire picks to get these players and a lot of them will want to acquire picks before their bids, to try to double up, like Fremantle and GWS did this year.

It's no coincidence that the 3 sides to acquire the biggest warchest of picks for next year, are all teams without major NGA and Academy prospects.

North, Geelong and Adelaide.

The real value comes for teams desperate for picks to get ahead of bids. Like teams were able to manipulate GWS, who paid an absolute small fortune in points for Lachie Ash in the end.

It will give those clubs flexibility to heat the sweet spots of the rest of the available players.

Sorry Pykie i don’t know how to split your post in to multi-quotes on my phone, so I hope you follow my reply.

I completely agree that just because a kid is tied to a club that it doesn’t remove them from the pool. I’ve tried making this point many times on the Lions board.

I wasn’t saying the compromised picks weakens the draft pool. But rather it weakens the pool of kids available to every club.

For example say there are 10 club tied kids rated in the top 35. With nga clubs trading ahead of their kids to get that extra pick in, and then matching with later picks, it might turn out that the club who originally had pick 35, and in an uncompromised draft would expect to draft the kid they rate 35th in the pool, might instead end up drafting the 42nd rated kid on their board.


I readily admit I haven’t seen enough of the kids to have an opinion of next year’s crop yet.

I do expect there to be more talls in the top half of next years draft with kids like Grainger-Barras, Ugle-Hagan and Thilthorpe already standing out as underagers this year.

However there weren’t really any/many underage mids or smalls who stood out like Ainsworth, Rankine and Walsh did in their bottom age year at U18 champs, or Walsh and Rowell did in the NAB league finals in their bottom age year.

I know the Hawks, Collingwood and Port have enough mid range picks to match their kids. It’s more Sydney and possibly Bulldogs who might need to chase points.

Brisbane was another team to trade in to the first round of next years draft. Will be interesting to see if any teams with multiple picks have stockpiled picks for high end trades or to reload at the draft.