No, coz we're not givin up the alliance with sam and chuck.
USA Is the USA the worst nation to exist since classical times?
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It's not about want though. If the US isn't the world cop, it'd probably be one of those two
It doesn’t have to be though, it would help if all 3 were on more level pegging actually.
I don’t consider the US more moral than the other 2 when it comes to foreign policy.
Russia is a dying nation, EU, India, a post Xi China and (Trump in jail) US having equal influence would be a much better world
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Well one is still a liberal democracy, and two are authoritarian dictatorships.
I wouldn't like the latter to be the global cops in the interests of liberal democracies, coz they're not interested in liberal or democratic values.
Wow. Im stunned that people would think this. Have you been reading the news in the past couple of years regarding ukraine and hong kong?
So we've just gotta wait for russia to die off and xi to fall off the perch, could be a long wait.
Oh and hope and pray that don doesn't win office.
I’ve also read the news regarding Israel, Yemen, and well the Middle East in general.
The US are on the right side of the conflict in Ukraine, but pretending it’s for any moral crusade is absurd.
None of this is to say that Russia or China are more moral than the US, they are clearly worse on personal freedoms in their own countries than the US, but foreign policy, all just look out for themselves.
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This is not news, but they do it for self interest reasons, not ideological ones, and they're not the only ones, one could speculate that many if not all liberal democracies do support dictators for self interest.
Not the point though is it. If you want a real threat to liberal democracy then having xi and vlad as the global cops is the way to go about it.
Regardless of what and how bad you think of the US, it's still a liberal democracy and will remain that way unless don gets in. Would rather them than the alternative.
Xi is leading China off a cliff and has only survived so far with increasing authoritarianism and claiming the successes from his predecessors reforms. Unfortunately he will probably launch an unprovoked attack on peaceful Taiwan killing millions of civilians to distract from his ever growing list of failures.
If the West keeps supporting Ukraine and tightens restrictions further, Putin and Russia will fall as well.
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Yep, just a question of when.
As I am saying Russia and China being more powerful than the US and running things now they see fit definitely doesn’t enthuse me.
The self interest part in terms of supporting dictators, I think we are in agreement here, it’s out of self interest and not ideology. Thing is the US claim that supporting Ukraine is some sort of moral crusade, which is total BS (even though I do agree with them supporting Ukraine)
Who cares, I'll redirect you to your post 381
It doesn’t have to be though, it would help if all 3 were on more level pegging actually.
Regardless of the US being disingenuous from a moral viewpoint isn't really what's important.
If you like liberal democracy you don't want two oppressive dictators to be global cops, thought that would be pretty evident.
- May 1, 2016
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There's a growing strain of geopolitical thought that suggests the moment to invade Taiwan has already passed due to the change in China's demographics reducing the viable population required to make such an invasion - one which would risk war with America - successful.
And with no guarantee of success, Xi will not move.
Remains to be seen. Russia has too much economic strength and their veto means they'll always have power in world affairs, Putin or no.
If Trump wins the election the USA will not intervene in Taiwan and Xi knows this. Trump wants foreign authoritarians to win as long as it doesnt directly impact the UsA. If Biden wins you may well be right.
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America is not the only nation with an interest in keeping China to themselves. Japan/Taiwan, India will look at an invasion of Taiwan... poorly.
And I take leave to doubt that Trump would keep America from getting involved in such a conflict. Their policy for pretty much the last 20 years has been containment of China's sphere of influence in the Pacific; the Republicans know that a failure to go to war under these circumstances would be tantamount to ceding control of the Pacific - and their west coast - to the Chinese navy.
The Republicans are also still stuck in Cold War mindsets, anyway. Watch the 'Communist China'/Domino theory rhetoric ramp up if he wins and China ramps up tension; this is not a situation from which he'll be able to keep them away.
Ukraine is the country who'll be ****ed if he becomes president again.
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a soothsayer. truer now than ever.
While I don't want the scenario to become reality, of course, it would be interesting how the military would react to being told to stand down when China started assembling their invasion forces.
How much Trump could swap out the normie generals and admirals for his own hand-picked ones and how long would it take? One would think China would watch that closely and plan their timetable accordingly.
Another key buttress against Trump allowing any overt moves would the uber-conservative donor class and orgs like Heritage/Federalist. In a way, they are the Deep State. How would they react to the situation would be decisive.
How much Trump could swap out the normie generals and admirals for his own hand-picked ones and how long would it take? One would think China would watch that closely and plan their timetable accordingly.
Another key buttress against Trump allowing any overt moves would the uber-conservative donor class and orgs like Heritage/Federalist. In a way, they are the Deep State. How would they react to the situation would be decisive.
It is essentially a Chinese province(ethnically/historically), as the US officially takes it as. A hong kong type set up is far more likley imo, rather than a direct invasion. Or a status quo if cool heads remain, Taiwan strait crisis's aren't a new thing
This is surely very different things, with satellite imagery and their sub fleet blue ocean navies aren't quite so mysterious these days
They're running domino theory in Ukraine/ eastern Europe atm, it will no doubt prove rubbish again
Also sorry previous comment; the demographic arguments are rubbish, Ukraine has 50+ y/o on the front line and they're just as effective. Capitalism sneaking into the natalist/climate change arguments
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Point of order: Ukraine are being invaded; ergo, every able bodied person is being used to defend their country; having 50 year olds on the front line is only a tenable outcome for them due to desperation.
China choosing to invade Taiwan, and conscripting 50 year olds to fight in a wider Pacific theatre - against America, against India, against Japan - is not an apples to apples comparison.
So, not rubbish.
True but india wont intervene militarily in taiwan nor will probably japan. They wont like it but they wont do anything about it. The US is the only country that could potentially militarily intervene (with minor support from allies).
You are right about the old school republicans views on China. But the Trump republicans and the old school republicans are completely different parties. The remaining old school republicans have no power in the party anymore and soon they will all be gone. The republican party is now the MAGA party. The MAGA republicans stated public foreign policy is isolationism. Their actual foreign policy is seeing an end to the western liberal order. China invading Taiwan actually helps this cause. If Trump can get US citizens scared about Chinas military it makes it so much easier to transform the USA into a Trump led dictatorship. The only beef Trump has with China is trade. Thats it. China invading Taiwan enables Trump to ban all imports from China.
Ukraine will also be stuffed if Trump becomes president. I completely agree with that. As Russian expansionism also helps Trumps goal.
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- May 1, 2016
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What Modi would do - being the combination of right wing and opportunistic he is - is use China's distraction to take back some of the disputed border. That means that they have less force to exert on Taiwan, as they need to maintain that border almost twice as strong, or lose ground and face.
The prospect of fighting a war on either side of China - one in the mountains and one navally - would be something Xi would see as the worst possible outcome.
And face is everything in Chinese politics.
Here's the problem: in order to do this, America would have to pull back and walk back on decades of military infrastructure and precedent, and - most importantly - the military will not want to do it. Trump more than anything else needs the military on side; the reason his coup failed the first time round is because he couldn't actually spur the military to join in in part or in full.
People forget that within a dictatorship, you are still ostensibly at the whims of those with the guns: do what you want but the second they start to get discontent is the same second they begin contemplating a change of leader.
And the military have been building opposite China for most of the past 30 years, and so have the military industrial complex. Withdrawing from all that will be... expensive politically; to this point, Trump has had the support of the NRA and weapons manufacturers. Do you really think they won't swing back round if he threatens to take away their favourite threat, 'reds under the bed'?
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Interesting take that. While I don't think Trump himself as thought it out that far strategically, I wonder if his trade boys like Navarro(before he went to prison) had that in mind. I would have thought players like him and the others had investments there.
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