Analysis The Rebuilds Of Hawthorn and Geelong and their Future Prospects

[Shadow89]

I mean.... Neither have Hawthorn.

Prior to this year, Norths last spoon was nearly 40 years ago.. sh*t, Collingwoods last spoon was over 20 years ago, long enough to have nothing to do with its current culture.

Weird flex.

I think the better thing to state would be, we've never finished lower than 12th in our entire history - that's far more impressive to me than avoiding a wooden spoon

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

I think the better thing to state would be, we've never finished lower than 12th in our entire history - that's far more impressive to me than avoiding a wooden spoon

Cool, whatever works for you mate.

 

[Shadow89]

Cool, whatever works for you mate.

Lol it wasn't a brag - I honestly have just personally always thought that was a pretty solid achievement.

Was just saying it's better to hang your hat on something that differentiates you, rather than something like 'we haven't won a wooden spoon in nearly 60 years' - which plenty of other clubs like yourselves can attest to as well.

Really wasn't meant to be a pompous comment, and apologies if it came across as chest beating - which is something I personally really dislike.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Lol it wasn't a brag - I honestly have just personally always thought that was a pretty solid achievement.

Was just saying it's better to hang your hat on something that differentiates you, rather than something like 'we haven't won a wooden spoon in nearly 60 years' - which plenty of other clubs like yourselves can attest to as well.

Really wasn't meant to be a pompous comment, and apologies if it came across as chest beating - which is something I personally really dislike.

All good, I didn't intend to come off as sarcastic either.

 

[Adi]

Hawks have a head start on the rebuild, but I'm not sure I want Geelong to rebuild just focus on bringing in mature bodies and with the extra cash from exiting players use it to buy gun players when we can, I'd risk 3-4 years to see if a new approach is possible.

 

[eastfreo75]

Is a ‘hard rebuild’ a ‘traditional rebuild as mentioned by the OP?

it’s one form of rebuild but certainly wasn’t traditional before reduced list sizes and priority picks etc. hawks in the eighties just went out and got the best talent they could, it was finances which slowed them down in the nineties

It’ll be interesting to see how hawk, crows, kangas and even pies go in the next few years. None of these teams has intentionally instituted a run at the bottom of the ladder, bu they find themselves there and are making the most if the drafting opportuniity

Sydney didn’t intentionally rebuild and haven’t done for years. They seem to be on the way up

Swans because of the academy allowed to get access to get top 5 picks in Heeney, and Mills while playing finals. Blakely also was a top 10 pick and most years would have gone top 5.

When they missed the finals they got three players in the top 5 within 2 years because of the academy.

Swans have good management combined with the best academy in the AFL.

 

[Partridge]

Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart are definitely players who fit the criteria of generational players, are they not? The post I originally quoted actually pointed out Jeremy Cameron as being a generational player, and the post was made by a Fremantle supporter. I don't suppose you think that poster has a bias for whatever reason towards Geelong?

In reverse order, Stewart is a really good player, but we've had star half back flankers before, since forever really. Important sure but not as critical as say Hawkins. As for Cameron, for all the hype, he's another who hasn't fired a shot in finals, and the short steps he took in the Prelim doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

[Black Haze]

Hawthorn are currently in the middle of their rebuild, while Geelong have began rebuilding this year. You'd want to get your rebuild done before Tasmania compromise the drafts.

 

[STPer18]

Said in the 2022 predictions thread that Geelong will continue to win enough games at their kidney ground to finish top 8 and potentially even top 4, but as shown by the Qualifying and Prelim finals, they're as much chance of winning a flag anytime soon, as we are.

Ahahahahahahaha, this thread's a ripper. That 2022 flag really blindsided the scribes, hey?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Hawks for sure..

Eventually Geelong will have to pay the piper for years of neglecting blooding fresh young talent into their club (probably around 2023 or 24)
If they can pinch a flag between now and then it would be worth if, but it's doubtful they will.

 

[sexyhunk]

Ahahahahahahaha, this thread's a ripper. That 2022 flag really blindsided the scribes, hey?

lol thats funny. but he is not the first or the last person to be completely wrong on the internet.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The Op did mention that Geelong might pinch a flag, but it does look like their list profile is slowly taking hold of their desire to contend each year.

 

[Saint]

What does each list look like in 2 years' time?

Cats will be without:
Hawkins (impossible to replace)
Dangerfield (impossible to replace, has barely played this year)
Duncan (nearly a liability)
I Smith (currently a liability)
R Stanley (replaceable)
Blicavs (v difficult to replace)
Rohan (needs replacing)
Tuohy (replaceable)
Menegola's body has fallen apart, hasn't played in a long time so not really considering him as a loss.

There's no doubt they're going to drop from the top 4 within the next two years with so many important players leaving the side.

Even with a swiftie like for Cameron, they're not replacing Hawkins, Dangerfield and Blicavs. Even if they lure Curnow home, he's a downgrade from Hawkins and Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

23

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

is a downgrade on Dangerfield.

The guys on their list who stepped in this year are not the type of player to take Dangerfields' spot. The one with the most potential is Oisin Mullin who showed really special glimpses, but he's never going to be Dangerfield (though he might kick better). Bruhn, Dempsey, Knievett, Parfitt

With Ratugolea, Stewart and Henry, backline is settled, but the mids and forwardline is going to get worse before it gets any better.

That's two years' time, not talking about this year, or even next. But by 2025, this list won't be top 4 consideration, barely top 8 material.

 

[MisterMarcus]

What does each list look like in 2 years' time?

Cats will be without:
Hawkins (impossible to replace)
Dangerfield (impossible to replace, has barely played this year)
Duncan (nearly a liability)
I Smith (currently a liability)
R Stanley (replaceable)
Blicavs (v difficult to replace)
Rohan (needs replacing)
Tuohy (replaceable)
Menegola's body has fallen apart, hasn't played in a long time so not really considering him as a loss.

There's no doubt they're going to drop from the top 4 within the next two years with so many important players leaving the side.

Even with a swiftie like for Cameron, they're not replacing Hawkins, Dangerfield and Blicavs. Even if they lure Curnow home, he's a downgrade from Hawkins and Sam Walsh is a downgrade on Dangerfield.

The guys on their list who stepped in this year are not the type of player to take Dangerfields' spot. The one with the most potential is Oisin Mullin who showed really special glimpses, but he's never going to be Dangerfield (though he might kick better). Bruhn, Dempsey, Knievett, Parfitt

With Ratugolea, Stewart and Henry, backline is settled, but the mids and forwardline is going to get worse before it gets any better.

That's two years' time, not talking about this year, or even next. But by 2025, this list won't be top 4 consideration, barely top 8 material.

Even assuming no trades or FAs whatsoever, it will be something like

Hawkins -> Neale
Stanley -> Conway
Rohan -> Dempsey and/or Ollie Henry
Tuohy -> Mullin and/or Bowes
The current midfield -> Bruhn, Holmes, Atkins stepping up, plus Knevitt and Clark, possibly Z Guthrie and Close moving into the midfield more.

I think we'll be okay.

 

[Seeds]

What does each list look like in 2 years' time?

Cats will be without:
Hawkins (impossible to replace)
Dangerfield (impossible to replace, has barely played this year)
Duncan (nearly a liability)
I Smith (currently a liability)
R Stanley (replaceable)
Blicavs (v difficult to replace)
Rohan (needs replacing)
Tuohy (replaceable)
Menegola's body has fallen apart, hasn't played in a long time so not really considering him as a loss.

There's no doubt they're going to drop from the top 4 within the next two years with so many important players leaving the side.

Even with a swiftie like for Cameron, they're not replacing Hawkins, Dangerfield and Blicavs. Even if they lure Curnow home, he's a downgrade from Hawkins and Sam Walsh is a downgrade on Dangerfield.

The guys on their list who stepped in this year are not the type of player to take Dangerfields' spot. The one with the most potential is Oisin Mullin who showed really special glimpses, but he's never going to be Dangerfield (though he might kick better). Bruhn, Dempsey, Knievett, Parfitt

With Ratugolea, Stewart and Henry, backline is settled, but the mids and forwardline is going to get worse before it gets any better.

That's two years' time, not talking about this year, or even next. But by 2025, this list won't be top 4 consideration, barely top 8 material.

Lol at the blicavs mention. Knevitt will probably surpass him in the next 12 months.

 

[Saint]

Lol at the blicavs mention. Knevitt will probably surpass him in the next 12 months.

Haha. Please. Knevitt won't be taking the second ruck position and setting himself up a kick behind play.

Blicavs' versatility is very important to the structure of the team.

I think we'll be okay.

I agree, just ok, about mid-ladder.

 

[Seeds]

Haha. Please. Knevitt won't be taking the second ruck position and setting himself up a kick behind play.

Blicavs' versatility is very important to the structure of the team.


I agree, just ok, about mid-ladder.

Lol. Its massively overrated. Just cos he does it doesnt mean he does it well. The only position he can play well is defensive positions. Either midfield defensive roles or backline. And he is a star in neither. As a ruckman he is pretty terrible most of the time. Cant compete against A grade ruckman except in relief terms in the last qtr and really never does much around the ground when rucking.

 

[The 747]

Lol. Its massively overrated. Just cos he does it doesnt mean he does it well. The only position he can play well is defensive positions. Either midfield defensive roles or backline. And he is a star in neither. As a ruckman he is pretty terrible most of the time. Cant compete against A grade ruckman except in relief terms in the last qtr and really never does much around the ground when rucking.

Have you been to a Geelong football game live and not just watched the ball?

Have you watched what he does when he doesn't have the ball?

Have you wondered why our opposition often get the ball and then have nowhere to go?

Irreplaceable player.

 

[The 747]

Well both sides are rebuilding, playing with a very young and new midfield and defence. We seem to be a fair way above them on the ladder though.

Being honest I don't think either club has many of the players required to win a flag (if you exclude our guys who are nearly done).

 

[Seeds]

Have you been to a Geelong football game live and not just watched the ball?

Have you watched what he does when he doesn't have the ball?

Have you wondered why our opposition often get the ball and then have nowhere to go?

Irreplaceable player.

I said he was solid defensively.

 

[Saint]

Lol. Its massively overrated. Just cos he does it doesnt mean he does it well. The only position he can play well is defensive positions. Either midfield defensive roles or backline. And he is a star in neither. As a ruckman he is pretty terrible most of the time. Cant compete against A grade ruckman except in relief terms in the last qtr and really never does much around the ground when rucking.

Ranked #1 in Clearances for Geelong this year while also first for hitouts (true no other ruckman has played as many games, but still averaging over 10 per game and doesn't play ruck a lot when those other ruckmen are playing).

More contested marks than Tom Stewart, same number as Cameron.

Top goalkicker outside the 6 forwards (he's 7th).

6th for both Goal assists and Inside 50's

5th for Marks inside 50.

All Australian last year.

Only a Geelong supporter could be calling their All Australian players over-rated "only position he can play well is defensive positions"

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Said in the 2022 predictions thread that Geelong will continue to win enough games at their kidney ground to finish top 8 and potentially even top 4, but as shown by the Qualifying and Prelim finals, they're as much chance of winning a flag anytime soon, as we are.

Lol you idiot.

 

[Seeds]

Ranked #1 in Clearances for Geelong this year while also first for hitouts (true no other ruckman has played as many games, but still averaging over 10 per game and doesn't play ruck a lot when those other ruckmen are playing).

More contested marks than Tom Stewart, same number as Cameron.

Top goalkicker outside the 6 forwards (he's 7th).

6th for both Goal assists and Inside 50's

5th for Marks inside 50.

All Australian last year.

Only a Geelong supporter could be calling their All Australian players over-rated "only position he can play well is defensive positions"

Blicavs should never of even been considered for all australian last year. It was ridiculous and not based off any data. Just a feeling pushed by the media Cos he never got there. Problem is he never deserved it.

is literally one of the worst finals players of all time. His opponent has been best on ground in finals about 6 times.

those stats arent all that impressive. He is in more centre bounces then any other player bar maybe atkins who is hopeless at winning the ball himself. All the other mids have missed large chunks of the season.

and ranking 6th for goal assists and inside 50s in a season he has played every game and nearly all geelong mids and fowards have missed large chunks of the season! Thats actually pretty poor is it not? Duncan, guthrie, danger, rohan, bruhn, stengle and stanley have all missed large parts of the season. Who exactly are the 5 above him?

 

[STRONGandBALD]

Hawks will be back in premiership contention before Geelong that’s for sure. They’ve already been properly rebuilding, Geelong are on a steady decline and will take a while to bottom out and come back up. Don’t see any future stars except for De Koning, even Stengel looks like he’s dropping off.

GMHBA is a blessing and a curse in this situation as it will stop them from completely bottoming out and getting those top 4/5 picks.

 

[STPer18]

Hawks will be back in premiership contention before Geelong that’s for sure. They’ve already been properly rebuilding, Geelong are on a steady decline and will take a while to bottom out and come back up. Don’t see any future stars except for De Koning, even Stengel looks like he’s dropping off.

GMHBA is a blessing and a curse in this situation as it will stop them from completely bottoming out and getting those top 4/5 picks.

Have we just been giving the Falcon kiss of success? Pack it in fellas, even more premiership success heading Geelong's way!