Welcome Welcome to Hawthorn : Calsher Dear! Rising star nom!

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I saw that! Caught me off-guard and I actually went back to slow-mo the action to check I saw it correctly.

It was a very deliberate push by Gunston - In that situation Dear needed to crash the pack, but instead had positioned to jump across the front and was either going to mark or (more likely, he does it a lot when out of position) - spoil over the line.

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I wonder if there’s been a goal total set for him for next year? I’m not expecting miracles, especially now he’ll be on opposition radars a little more. Slow and steady improvement is all we need from him. 25-30 would be awesome.
 

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I wonder if there’s been a goal total set for him for next year? I’m not expecting miracles, especially now he’ll be on opposition radars a little more. Slow and steady improvement is all we need from him. 25-30 would be awesome.
Why?

He's our Gunston replacement in every sense of the word.

No limits. He does what he does.
 
Dear could easily kick +45 next season and I expect his improvement will continue in a similar trajectory to last season.

IMO he is our best KP forward.
By about round 7-8 there will be no doubters left.

Scaife is the one to watch.
If he can fulfil the potential he showed at BH after a full pre-season, it will change a lot about our team, and also list management options next year.
 
Why?

He's our Gunston replacement in every sense of the word.

No limits. He does what he does.
Dear is a genuine key forward who will be the main man and win Coleman medals.

Gunston is a 3rd tall who takes chances of a utility roaming up the ground.

They are very different players.
 
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Dear could easily kick +45 next season and I expect his improvement will continue in a similar trajectory to last season.

IMO he is our best KP forward.
By about round 7-8 there will be no doubters left.

Scaife is the one to watch.
If he can fulfil the potential he showed at BH after a full pre-season, it will change a lot about our team, and also list management options next year.
Dear is going to be good but 45 goals is a stretch, anything can happen but come on.

Best KP forward? Lewis.
 
Dear is going to be good but 45 goals is a stretch, anything can happen but come on.

Best KP forward? Lewis.

It's great to be able to have this debate. But I'd argue we really don't know who is at this point.

Mitch is coming back from a long term injury, on the back of another long term injury.

Calsher is rocking up for his second year, and a lot of guys experience second year blues.

But my gut is leaning towards Calsher by the end of this year. I've never seen a first year TALL (kid must be around 198 now by the looks of things) take over a final for a quarter like he did against the dogs. It was immense. If he'd kicked straight in Q3 we'd all be talking about him in very different terms I reckon.

But personally I hope that they both play out of their skins for us in 2025, and both get an injury free run at it too. If that happens our team is in great shape to do better than last year.
 
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Dear is going to be good but 45 goals is a stretch, anything can happen but come on.

Best KP forward? Lewis.
They can both play great footy for years to come.

Not seeing it with Scaife myself, not as anything more than depth anyway. Sure he is a big kick but his limitations are obvious and you don't win flags with regular players with such big limitations

Besides, we don't really need him. Our small/med fwd depth is stacked, 2 big guys plus chol/meek rolling fwd is more than enough.

We are bound to attract a big name big guy in a year or two anyway

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They can both play great footy for years to come.

Not seeing it with Scaife myself, not as anything more than depth anyway. Sure he is a big kick but his limitations are obvious and you don't win flags with regular players with such big limitations

Besides, we don't really need him. Our small/med fwd depth is stacked, 2 big guys plus chol/meek rolling fwd is more than enough.

We are bound to attract a big name big guy in a year or two anyway

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I think it is way to early to make such judgements for a MSD pick who is yet to do a full pre-season.
 
I think it is way to early to make such judgements for a MSD pick who is yet to do a full pre-season.
Yep, for 4,578th time, NO player should be judged before they've played at LEAST 50 games, and big blokes take even longer. I wonder how many more times we have to go through this....
 

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Yep, for 4,578th time, NO player should be judged before they've played at LEAST 50 games, and big blokes take even longer. I wonder how many more times we have to go through this....
DGB was cut after 28 games. Other talls cut before their 50th include Walter, Dowler, Jeka, Thorp and Lisle. Which of those should we have kept on until they had played 50?
 
Why not? If he plays every game averages 2 goals a game he will be very close to that 45 at the end of the year.
I think it’s a stretch for his second season, because he will have quiet games and some very good ones. 30 odd is probably a reasonable shout.

It's great to be able to have this debate. But I'd argue we really don't know who is at this point.

Mitch is coming back from a long term injury, on the back of another long term injury.

Calsher is rocking up for his second year, and a lot of guys experience second year blues.

But my gut is leaning towards Calsher by the end of this year. I've never seen a first year TALL (kid must be around 198 now by the looks of things) take over a final for a quarter like he did against the dogs. It was immense. If he'd kicked straight in Q3 we'd all be talking about him in very different terms I reckon.

But personally I hope that they both play out of their skins for us in 2025, and both get an injury free run at it too. If that happens our team is in great shape to do better than last year.
Mitch at his best is clearly ahead, Dear may be ahead in some time but as you say, it’s unsure how Mitch returns after this injury.

Everyone would hope for the best for the both of them.

They can both play great footy for years to come.

Not seeing it with Scaife myself, not as anything more than depth anyway. Sure he is a big kick but his limitations are obvious and you don't win flags with regular players with such big limitations

Besides, we don't really need him. Our small/med fwd depth is stacked, 2 big guys plus chol/meek rolling fwd is more than enough.

We are bound to attract a big name big guy in a year or two anyway

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Definitely both can.

I see it, but it’s just about improvement in his weak areas and continuing to focus on his strengths, which are his kicking, strength and power/marking.

See how it pans out.
 
I think it’s a stretch for his second season, because he will have quiet games and some very good ones. 30 odd is probably a reasonable shout.
This is very conservative. He kicked 25.27 from 18 games (including 1 were he got injured and another were he started as sub). He missed 3 games to injury and upon return spent 2 weeks in the VFL. He kicked 8.5 in those 2 games. So for all games played in 2024 he had 33.32

If you look at his stats as he settled in and fixed up his nerves kicking for goal (he didn't seem to have a routine and was doing weird running out wide) his 1.3 games turned into 3.1 games.

So if he simply makes continues his improved goal kicking he's goes from 25.27 to something like 35.17. He will also (if fit) have 5 more full game and more game time in 2 others as he's not going to start sub again.

40 goals is very achievable.
 
This is very conservative. He kicked 25.27 from 18 games (including 1 were he got injured and another were he started as sub). He missed 3 games to injury and upon return spent 2 weeks in the VFL. He kicked 8.5 in those 2 games. So for all games played in 2024 he had 33.32

If you look at his stats as he settled in and fixed up his nerves kicking for goal (he didn't seem to have a routine and was doing weird running out wide) his 1.3 games turned into 3.1 games.

So if he simply makes continues his improved goal kicking he's goes from 25.27 to something like 35.17. He will also (if fit) have 5 more full game and more game time in 2 others as he's not going to start sub again.

40 goals is very achievable.
Those are Watson's stats.
We're talking about Dear.
 
I don't know how I got confused.

Dear to kick 70.
I am very bullish on Dear if he stays fit.
He did extremely well as an underdeveloped KPP.
I expect he will hold his ground a lot better next season, and increased endurance will see him get more opportunistic goals too.

Easily +40 goals.
Also, expecting Scaife coming into the team to take some defensive attention away from Dear.
 

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