List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

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Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[hbk2015]

I also think endurance and fitness is easily something that can be worked on, in a AFL environment.
Just look at Oliver when drafted overweight and could barely run

 

[Keys]

Why are teams so desperate to throw the kitchen sink and their first borns for Reid if his fitness is blah blah blah ..



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I understand your point but so far all the speculation on trading pick 1 has been in the media, none of which has included credible offers from any club

So here’s the thing - as much as there’s significant (justified) hype around how good Reid is basically every proposed trade floated in the media has been underwhelming. It’s certainly fallen short of what posters here have wanted/expected

It’s hard to judge the value of a trade because we’ve yet to see what clubs are actually prepared to offer

Clubs are far more pragmatic than the media - they’ll not only see the good/great with Reid but also the not so good. When they put together their offers it reflect their view on how valuable Reid is

I said a while ago, what WCE (and other clubs) consider a godfather offer is likely to be less than what we think. Take note of what WCE_phil says because he’s closer to how these discussions and views are formed

Hopefully next week we start reading about what’s being put on the table (and rejected) to get a data point on where offers might land

 

[Bestbird]

I understand your point but so far all the speculation on trading pick 1 has been in the media, none of which has included credible offers from any club

So here’s the thing - as much as there’s significant (justified) hype around how good Reid is basically every proposed trade floated in the media has been underwhelming. It’s certainly fallen short of what posters here have wanted/expected

It’s hard to judge the value of a trade because we’ve yet to see what clubs are actually prepared to offer

Clubs are far more pragmatic than the media - they’ll not only see the good/great with Reid but also the not so good. When they put together their offers it reflect their view on how valuable Reid is

I said a while ago, what WCE (and other clubs) consider a godfather offer is likely to be less than what we think. Take note of what WCE_phil says because he’s closer to how these discussions and views are formed

Hopefully next week we start reading about what’s being put on the table (and rejected) to get a data point on where offers might land

It is also really difficult to assess the value of draft picks this year when considering offers for Pick 1 because it is so comprised. As an example, Pick 20 becomes Pick 27.

 

[06Premiers]

Just take Reid.
Unless we get such a ridiculous offer to split it, that we can't reasonably reject it.
Splitting pick 1 won't work as well as last year as the top end this year isn't so even.
Talent like Harley's doesn't come around very often.

The media this year is even more insufferable than normal.
Are they afraid of us bouncing back up the ladder quicker than normal?
Kane is the absolute worst of the lot.
Every word out of his mouth makes me want to vomit.

Really though, it's kind of exciting having pick 1 & I don't want us to give it up.
Even if in a few years Harley wants to return to Victoria, the trade package for him would be immense.
In summary,
Don't be stupid WCE.


JTR.

 

[Keys]

It is also really difficult to assess the value of draft picks this year when considering offers for Pick 1 because it is so comprised. As an example, Pick 20 becomes Pick 27.

Agreed. Further complicating it is that the players in that draft range around 15-35/40 are fairly even so it’s hard to get a gauge on who might be available

When talking on trade radio, O’Brien did say that when assessing any offer they’ll line it up with their draft board to make a judgment

Before adding it’d need to be significant

 

[bigmikles089]

Posted this over in the pick 1 thread which makes me and I'm sure many others in here feel like they're losing their minds:

Why would the Reid camp not come out and communicate it to clubs that he doesn't want to leave his home state like Wingard in his draft year, Sheezel & Wardlaw, Perkins etc? - All players who knew they would get drafted and could get away with telling a few clubs not to bother picking them.

Now Reid is clearly going to get drafted, so there's little downside outside of some potential public scrutiny that will last a few weeks at most. So why would he come out publicly and say he's willing to move, say he just wants to play AFL regardless of what club etc if he wasn't willing to?

Archie Perkins who is managed by Robbie D,Orazio (works at Connors Sports, for Reid's manager Paul Connors) effectively communicated this to clubs and in turn, he was drafted by Essendon which meant that Perkins was happy and clubs didn't torch a first round draft pick on a kid who was too mentally soft to move out of home.

Connors would've seen the JHF situation last year and seen the impact it had on JHF's mental wellbeing with all the media attention, booing etc and it would be clearly easier to just come out and say "the kid doesn't want to leave" and let Harley get on with footy.

 

[Deepthroat]

Rep

With no conversation about Jeremy Sharp since the suggestion a month ago he would be going to the dockers, should we be considering him as a player?

Reports recently saying Hardwick really likes him and wants him to stay.

 

[Makka]

Posted this over in the pick 1 thread which makes me and I'm sure many others in here feel like they're losing their minds:

Why would the Reid camp not come out and communicate it to clubs that he doesn't want to leave his home state like Wingard in his draft year, Sheezel & Wardlaw, Perkins etc? - All players who knew they would get drafted and could get away with telling a few clubs not to bother picking them.

Now Reid is clearly going to get drafted, so there's little downside outside of some potential public scrutiny that will last a few weeks at most. So why would he come out publicly and say he's willing to move, say he just wants to play AFL regardless of what club etc if he wasn't willing to?

Archie Perkins who is managed by Robbie D,Orazio (works at Connors Sports, for Reid's manager Paul Connors) effectively communicated this to clubs and in turn, he was drafted by Essendon which meant that Perkins was happy and clubs didn't torch a first round draft pick on a kid who was too mentally soft to move out of home.

Connors would've seen the JHF situation last year and seen the impact it had on JHF's mental wellbeing with all the media attention, booing etc and it would be clearly easier to just come out and say "the kid doesn't want to leave" and let Harley get on with footy.

Easier? Maybe? But I'd call it tampering still. If you aren't prepared to play your footy anywhere then don't nominate. They know how the draft works.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Just take Brayden.


Petracca took forever to get his fitness up to the required level for an AFL midfielder.

Oliver was pretty pudgy when he started and his body quickly changed. Think he lost like 7kgs in his first pre season.

Rayner is still working on it.

I'm not too concerned about Reid. He doesn't seem to have any issues finding the pill as a teenager against men in the VFL.

 

[stallon]

Easier? Maybe? But I'd call it tampering still. If you aren't prepared to play your footy anywhere then don't nominate. They know how the draft works.

Plenty of kids have gotten away with it so far, if it makes Reids life easier its a no-brainer

 

[Makka]

Plenty of kids have gotten away with it so far, if it makes Reids life easier its a no-brainer

Agree to disagree.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

So let us understand what clubs think is fair value to trade up.

The Dogs are reportedly offering the Suns 10, 17 a Future R1 which I think is around 12 for 4 plus some later picks for point back in this year to match the Croft bid

Suns current pick 4 is highly likely to be pick 5

My best view of the deal is as follows



Pick 4/5 will likely get one of Watson, Sanders, O'Sullivan or Caddy. Dogs are giving up 3 first round picks to move up to 4/5. To make the deal less favourable to the Suns, I am throwing in 3 later picks that the Suns will give the Dogs.

Any deal for Pick 1 must include a top 3 pick, a top 6 pick and a top 12 pick.

One of McKercher or Curtin at a top 3
One of O'Sullivan or Sanders at a top 6 - If Norf are out then Curtin may still be there at 6
Murphy with a top 12 pick

A trio of McKercher, O'Sullivan and Murphy instead of Reid is very bloody tempting. Add to that what we drafted in 2021 and 2022 plus the likelihood of a top level balanced mid with our 2024 pick, we are well on the way.

 

[stallon]

Agree to disagree.

Until the AFL does something about it, theyll keep telling clubs where they want to go. Wont change until a kid is banned from the draft for tampering

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Pretty easy to avoid draft tampering charges I would imagine.

"Sure, draft me, but I won't ever sign a contract extension. You'll have 2 (now 3) years".

 

[Ishmael_]

I understand your point but so far all the speculation on trading pick 1 has been in the media, none of which has included credible offers from any club

So here’s the thing - as much as there’s significant (justified) hype around how good Reid is basically every proposed trade floated in the media has been underwhelming. It’s certainly fallen short of what posters here have wanted/expected

It’s hard to judge the value of a trade because we’ve yet to see what clubs are actually prepared to offer

Clubs are far more pragmatic than the media - they’ll not only see the good/great with Reid but also the not so good. When they put together their offers it reflect their view on how valuable Reid is

I said a while ago, what WCE (and other clubs) consider a godfather offer is likely to be less than what we think. Take note of what WCE_phil says because he’s closer to how these discussions and views are formed

Hopefully next week we start reading about what’s being put on the table (and rejected) to get a data point on where offers might land

All of this expectation setting got me thinking about the Kelly trade, a much discussed example of overpaying. So which is greater a 'Godfather Offer' or 'The Farm'?

Phil's trade is roughly:

1, 21, 39, 39 ---> 2, 14, 19, 19, 20

That's assuming the worst case scenario, finishing last next year, and the best case scenario of the first round not being compromised.

So essentially it's:

Pick 1 --> pick 2
21 --> 19
39 --> 19
39 --> 20
+ 14 for nothing.

Compare that to the 'farm' we paid for Kelly.

14, 18, 24, 33 --> Kelly, 52, 60(?)

Let's put a name to it, so it's apples and apples. The trade would be:

Reid, 21, 39, 39 --> 2, 14, 19, 19, 20

That's 5 'first rounders' for Reid, one high second rounder that can blow out and 2 highish 3rds. It's also worth noting that everything south of pick 2 will blow out a bit with academies and F/S and the Kelly trade includes those blowouts, so it's not exactly apples to apples.

Still that looks like the 'farm' to me. It might not be as sexy as 3 x top 10 or whatever we're fantasising about, but I reckon that gets it done for West Coast - who can also sell those picks next year for a higher pick.

Obviously, you just pick Reid () but it's something to think about.

 

[Beutbrute]

Wont change until a kid is banned from the draft for tampering

This won't happen until it's a WA/SA draftee and a club like Geelong or Collingwood have pick 1

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Endurance is very overrated. Ginbey who have elite endurance but barely touch the ball (could provide a better example)

There are many endurance elite players that can't touch the ball if their lives depended on it. It's running patterns and how you use your endurance that matters

Cam Raynor says hi.

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[eaglevision]

PSD it is! What a bunch of clowns.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

This won't happen until it's a WA/SA draftee and a club like Geelong or Collingwood have pick 1

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[Sammy J]

PSD it is! What a bunch of clowns.

You’ll take a third and be grateful smh Hawks

 

[oak79]

You’ll take a third and be grateful smh Hawks

Can't blame them for asking

 

[Bender_]

It's how negotiations should work. Start higher than you want, get countered with less than you'll take, meet in the middle.

 

[dinnaz]

I reckon actual proven footballing performance is way more valuable than artificial testing results.

Can't call Reid a midfielder now
Can Rayner clone incoming

 

[Keys]

So let us understand what clubs think is fair value to trade up.

The Dogs are reportedly offering the Suns 10, 17 a Future R1 which I think is around 12 for 4 plus some later picks for point back in this year to match the Croft bid

Suns current pick 4 is highly likely to be pick 5

My best view of the deal is as follows

View attachment 1823839

Pick 4/5 will likely get one of Watson, Sanders, O'Sullivan or Caddy. Dogs are giving up 3 first round picks to move up to 4/5. To make the deal less favourable to the Suns, I am throwing in 3 later picks that the Suns will give the Dogs.

Any deal for Pick 1 must include a top 3 pick, a top 6 pick and a top 12 pick.

One of McKercher or Curtin at a top 3
One of O'Sullivan or Sanders at a top 6 - If Norf are out then Curtin may still be there at 6
Murphy with a top 12 pick

A trio of McKercher, O'Sullivan and Murphy instead of Reid is very bloody tempting. Add to that what we drafted in 2021 and 2022 plus the likelihood of a top level balanced mid with our 2024 pick, we are well on the way.

Keep in mind that the Bulldogs are getting ahead of a potential bid on Croft before pick 10 which is a big reason why they’re doing that trade

If Croft decides there’s too many talls at the bulldogs and goes into the open draft instead, then that pick swap is off the table

 

[dinnaz]

Pushes our pick 39 to 40. Be close to 50 by the time academy picks are factored in with other compo picks

Now this is a misconception. Cos each bid will eat up a bunch of picks in the 20s & 30s it'll come back in.