The Bulldogs and Umpires: Time for a Royal Commission?

[Plugger35]

To be fair to Plugger the Port Adelaide media team also forgot to check the year that this table refers to (2022) on their club website match preview, they might have even ripped it off this very thread

View attachment 1707341

Hinkley expecting fierce Friday night battle

Port Adelaide will seek its 10th consecutive win in Friday Night Football with selection sending a message about form - and the challenge of staying strong during the second half of the season.

www.portadelaidefc.com.au

Someone posted that free kick differential table elsewhere here today and I assumed it was for this year especially with it being after Round 12 now.

I guess it also says a lot about the treatment the Bulldogs get from the umpires that so many people got tricked into believing that it was for this year.

 

[Bald]

Someone posted that free kick differential table elsewhere here today and I assumed it was for this year especially with it being after Round 12 now.

I guess it also says a lot about the treatment the Bulldogs get from the umpires that so many people got tricked into believing that it was for this year.

No, that says a lot about the intelligence of people that post things without first checking whether they're accurate..

 

[_Mike_]

No surprise to see the Bulldogs are well out in front on the free kick differential ladder after Round 12, some things never change.

Dont let the real stats get in the way of a good melt Plugger

2023 stats
Rnd 1 - Dees 23 frees, Dogs 13 frees
Rnd 2 - Saints 21 frees Dogs 16 frees
Rnd 3 - Lions 26 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 4 - Tigers 17 frees Dogs 20 frees
Rnd 5 - Port 23 frees Dogs 24 frees
Rnd 6 - Freo 15 frees Dogs 18 frees
Rnd 7 - Hawks 11 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 8 - Giants 9 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 9 - Blues 19 frees Dogs 15 frees
Rnd 10 - Crows 12 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 11 - Suns 13 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 12 - Cats 18 frees Dogs 12 frees

2023 Total Bulldogs frees for - 212
2023 Total Bulldogs frees against - 207

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2023

AFL Statistics Team Rankings for Season 2023.

www.footywire.com

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Gee, the umps are making a large charge again...

 

[_Mike_]

Gee, the umps are making a large charge again...

Ofcourse,

There’s no way the Dogs should have had 19 frees last night compared to Port’s 20

Should have been 9-20. A good team should have at least a -20 differential to show that they don’t rely on the help of frees

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Ofcourse,

There’s no way the Dogs should have had 19 frees last night compared to Port’s 20

Should have been 9-20. A good team should have at least a -20 differential to show that they don’t rely on the help of frees

I don't agree.

In isolation, the differential is largely irrelevant.

However when it's a pattern over 7-8 years, then it becomes difficult to continue assuming it's merely a coincidence.

 

[Sentinel]

Yeah last night sure was a good example of a game to prove just how corrupt the umpires are towards the Bulldogs.

 

[_Mike_]

2023 stats
Rnd 1 - Dees 23 frees, Dogs 13 frees
Rnd 2 - Saints 21 frees Dogs 16 frees
Rnd 3 - Lions 26 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 4 - Tigers 17 frees Dogs 20 frees
Rnd 5 - Port 23 frees Dogs 24 frees
Rnd 6 - Freo 15 frees Dogs 18 frees
Rnd 7 - Hawks 11 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 8 - Giants 9 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 9 - Blues 19 frees Dogs 15 frees
Rnd 10 - Crows 12 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 11 - Suns 13 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 12 - Cats 18 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 13 - Port 20 frees Dogs 19 frees

2023 Total Bulldogs frees for - 231
2023 Total Bulldogs frees against - 227

 

[JoondalupJ]

I'll put this as nicely as I can, the Sicily thing has almost lost me my lifelong worshipping of Hawthorn and the Australian football I have followed for 65 years. I'm a member too .
I believe that the umpires are taught the new rules(NEW RULES) So tightly to the absolute minute degree, that in fact they do a good job in the split seconds they take to make a decision, but the rules are so complicated and so barely understandable and so tiggy touchwood ,many of them, to the degree that a free is not warranted, it is the most blatant seeable ruining of the sport, or any sport I have ever seen.
But the Umpires have much much too much power control and remember players excitement or anger or frustration IS TOTALLY NORMAL, this game is hard to play.
Dissent is a nonsense, so is guess work at calling deliberate out of bounds, that is a proven thing when you see silly pay backs some umpires do. Of course they will say they don't! They do!
Punching arms is a defensive action to stop a big forward from marking when he has the ball delivered right in front of him chest or high mark, a defender has no other choice than punch in motion split seconds?...... You know TRY????

Ruck men penalised at the centre bounces needs to be left alone no Ruck penalties for either side at centre bounces it is an automatic advance into the forward line for one side, and how often do we see Ruck men stand in disbelief, at a free or just don't know.
This is a very dangerous grey area for gambling??? No not saying the umpires are corrupt , I am saying that the grey rules in our AFL these days,leave it wide open , why?
And maybe there is sport adjudicators all over the world that get a little help, we know this to be true because two cricketers manipulated a cricket ball in an international and still have played for Australia. How? There is o forgiveness for cheats.
Well this is not international, is it AFL?
This is our national game and at the pace this game is played any one could manipulate a situation very easily, and it happens. Even in Brownlow counts????

 

[MagpieJo]

the Brownlow is a farce after last year ...

 

[_Mike_]

2023 stats
Rnd 1 - Dees 23 frees, Dogs 13 frees
Rnd 2 - Saints 21 frees Dogs 16 frees
Rnd 3 - Lions 26 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 4 - Tigers 17 frees Dogs 20 frees
Rnd 5 - Port 23 frees Dogs 24 frees
Rnd 6 - Freo 15 frees Dogs 18 frees
Rnd 7 - Hawks 11 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 8 - Giants 9 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 9 - Blues 19 frees Dogs 15 frees
Rnd 10 - Crows 12 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 11 - Suns 13 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 12 - Cats 18 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 13 - Port 20 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 14 - North 13 frees Dogs 19 frees

2023 Total Bulldogs frees for - 250
2023 Total Bulldogs frees against - 240

 

[Blueyboy74]

2023 stats
Rnd 1 - Dees 23 frees, Dogs 13 frees
Rnd 2 - Saints 21 frees Dogs 16 frees
Rnd 3 - Lions 26 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 4 - Tigers 17 frees Dogs 20 frees
Rnd 5 - Port 23 frees Dogs 24 frees
Rnd 6 - Freo 15 frees Dogs 18 frees
Rnd 7 - Hawks 11 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 8 - Giants 9 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 9 - Blues 19 frees Dogs 15 frees
Rnd 10 - Crows 12 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 11 - Suns 13 frees Dogs 22 frees
Rnd 12 - Cats 18 frees Dogs 12 frees
Rnd 13 - Port 20 frees Dogs 19 frees
Rnd 14 - North 13 frees Dogs 19 frees

2023 Total Bulldogs frees for - 250
2023 Total Bulldogs frees against - 240

What's your point? Irrespective of whether or not you're still getting an armchair ride from the umpires (and you're still faring better than 11 other clubs this season), it has got me stumped how just one club in particular, given that all other things being equal has just a 5.5% chance in any given year of finishing on top and theoretically would do so only once every eighteen years, has managed to achieve the feat of leading the free kick differential for the entire competition in five of the past seven years!

2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st
2018 - 4th
2019 - 1st
2020 - 7th
2021 - 1st
2022 - 1st

If it were due to a particular strategy or exploitation of the rules then other clubs would have woken up to it by now and either mimicked it &/or planned to reduce its effectiveness ... but it seems to be for other mysterious reasons.

Since 2016 the Bulldogs are +510 in free kicks, having never had a season in the red during that time. My club is -475 for the same period, having never had a season in the positive. That's a difference 985 free kicks in just over 7 years . I just find it funny that a supporter of your club would bring up a topic that I imagine the overwhelming majority of your supporters hope escapes any attention.

 

[Sentinel]

What's your point? Irrespective of whether or not you're still getting an armchair ride from the umpires (and you're still faring better than 11 other clubs this season), it has got me stumped how just one club in particular, given that all other things being equal has just a 5.5% chance in any given year of finishing on top and theoretically would do so only once every eighteen years, has managed to achieve the feat of leading the free kick differential for the entire competition in five of the past seven years!

2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st
2018 - 4th
2019 - 1st
2020 - 7th
2021 - 1st
2022 - 1st

If it were due to a particular strategy or exploitation of the rules then other clubs would have woken up to it by now and either mimicked it &/or planned to reduce its effectiveness ... but it seems to be for other mysterious reasons .

Since 2016 the Bulldogs are +510 in free kicks, having never had a season in the red during that time. My club is -475 for the same period, having never had a season in the positive. That's a difference 985 free kicks in just over 7 years . I just find it funny that a supporter of your club would bring up a topic that I imagine the overwhelming majority of your supporters hope escapes any attention.

Meanwhile your club has won 3 flags and the Bulldogs have won 1, so what's the point? Clearly 'winning' the free kick count has little effect, as evident by the correlation (or rather lack thereof) of game results and free kick results, which goes beyond just the Bulldogs and Richmond.

Why would other clubs mimick the Bulldogs tendency towards giving away less free kicks than the opposition if it means little to nothing towards winning a game of football?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Meanwhile your club has won 3 flags and the Bulldogs have won 1, so what's the point? Clearly 'winning' the free kick count has little effect, as evident by the correlation (or rather lack thereof) of game results and free kick results, which goes beyond just the Bulldogs and Richmond.

Why would other clubs mimick the Bulldogs tendency towards giving away less free kicks than the opposition if it means little to nothing towards winning a game of football?

Ummm.....Ok....

That's very odd logic.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

What's your point? Irrespective of whether or not you're still getting an armchair ride from the umpires (and you're still faring better than 11 other clubs this season), it has got me stumped how just one club in particular, given that all other things being equal has just a 5.5% chance in any given year of finishing on top and theoretically would do so only once every eighteen years, has managed to achieve the feat of leading the free kick differential for the entire competition in five of the past seven years!

2016 - 1st
2017 - 1st
2018 - 4th
2019 - 1st
2020 - 7th
2021 - 1st
2022 - 1st

If it were due to a particular strategy or exploitation of the rules then other clubs would have woken up to it by now and either mimicked it &/or planned to reduce its effectiveness ... but it seems to be for other mysterious reasons.

Since 2016 the Bulldogs are +510 in free kicks, having never had a season in the red during that time. My club is -475 for the same period, having never had a season in the positive. That's a difference 985 free kicks in just over 7 years . I just find it funny that a supporter of your club would bring up a topic that I imagine the overwhelming majority of your supporters hope escapes any attention.

Try a different logic to this.
Winning the free kick count isn't that relevant and is more likley based on how teams want to play.
Richmond as the most successful side over the past 8 years (Beveridge's coaching tenure) are consistently at the bottom of the free kick differentials.

Just perhaps Richmond have been content to concede frees to slow down the opposition as part of their game plan.

Personally I would take 3 flags over winning the FK differential in any 10 year period.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Ummm.....Ok....

That's very odd logic.

The only thing odd is your take on it.

As an alleged Gold Coast supporter would you prefer to win free kicks or football games?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

The only thing odd is your take on it.

As an alleged Gold Coast supporter would you prefer to win free kicks or football games?

Are you seriously saying that Richmond winning 3 flags and the Bulldogs winning 1 is proof that umpires have no impact on results?

Seriously.

 

[Blueyboy74]

Try a different logic to this.
Winning the free kick count isn't that relevant and is more likley based on how teams want to play.
Richmond as the most successful side over the past 8 years (Beveridge's coaching tenure) are consistently at the bottom of the free kick differentials.

Just perhaps Richmond have been content to concede frees to slow down the opposition as part of their game plan.

Personally I would take 3 flags over winning the FK differential in any 10 year period.

Perhaps that plays some part in the overall discrepancy but it doesn't address the imbalance with the number of free kicks that we don't receive compared with other teams. I also seriously doubt that deliberately employing tactics to slow the game down is something Richmond has done ... if anything, we prefer a fast game and it's the opposition trying to slow it down.

You can rest assured that I wouldn't dream of swapping the 3 flags for some 'wins' in the FK differential either but borrowing your suggestion, try a different logic to this: the very fact that most Tiger supporters are totally fed up with the treatment we have received for quite a number of years now is a pretty good indication, given that it has coincided with a most successful period, that what we are saying has fair amount of substance to it rather than making excuses or emanating from sour grapes.

 

[Blueyboy74]

Are you seriously saying that Richmond winning 3 flags and the Bulldogs winning 1 is proof that umpires have no impact on results?

Seriously.

I think what Bulldog Joe is conveniently overlooking that you can still win in spite of the umpiring (a la Richmond's 3 premierships) just as you can win because of the umpiring (a la Western Bulldogs in 2016). From a neutral point of view, I thought the umpiring was a major factor in determining both their 6 point preliminary final win against the Giants (free kicks 23-13) and their 18 point grand final victory against the Swans (free kicks 20-8).

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

their 18 point grand final victory against the Swans

22 points

 

[Blueyboy74]

22 points

My apologies, correct you are. It's not likely that you are ever going to forget that result!

 

[Sentinel]

Ummm.....Ok....

That's very odd logic.

It's only odd if you refuse to look at the fact there is zero correlation between winning football games and winning free kick counts. That goes beyond Richmond/Bulldogs premierships, it's true in general.

For all the carry on about free kick counts, in the end it doesn't mean you're more or less likely to win a football match, as evident by the stats. Not that I expect you understand the concept of correlation.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

It's only odd if you refuse to look at the fact there is zero correlation between winning football games and winning free kick counts. That goes beyond Richmond/Bulldogs premierships, it's true in general.

For all the carry on about free kicks, in the end it doesn't mean you're more or less likely to win a football match, as evident by the stats. Not that I expect you understand the concept of correlation.

No single stat in isolation means you wina game, other than the scoreboard.

Contested Ball doesn't.
Marks Inside 50.
Scoring Shots.
Inside 50s.
Clearances.
Intercepts.

None of them means you win.

But that doesn't mean they're not very important and influential stats when it comes to determining the result.

 

[_Mike_]

What's your point?

The point is, there's a number of bigfooty posters who live in some alternate world thinking we're still the most favoured team this season. There's been a number of areas that we hadnt been penalised for in the past however dont for one second think that only the Dogs get off lightly. With the change of umpiring to a 4 man system this year there's a lot of things the Dogs are now being hit for frees against that they would have got away with in the last few years.

But if you think the Dogs are the only team that throws, ducks etc, you aint living in reality. If you want to pull stats since 2016 to suit the conspiracy theory, go back to 2003 to see who the most heavily favored team has been in that time.

Free kick differential over the past 15 years

Free kick West Coast.

www.zerohanger.com

Even with the differential from 2019-2023 no team would overtake the Eagles, who had a +71 differential in their 2006 flag year and +85 for 2015. But lets not let the facts get in the way of a good story

 

[Blueyboy74]

For all the carry on about free kick counts, in the end it doesn't mean you're more or less likely to win a football match, as evident by the stats. Not that I expect you understand the concept of correlation.

Thanks for your condescending input smart arse. Like I said previously, you can get a bad run with the umpires and still win the game. Perhaps the umpires had no bearing on the scoreboard or perhaps three of their incorrect decisions, for example, directly led to opposition goals which meant you only won by 20 points instead of 38 points. In those instances then obviously there is no correlation between the result and free kicks and any idiot would know that ... quite possibly even you.

But what about if you lost the game by only 4 points ... could you then argue there is now a correlation between the result and the erroneous decisions? Of course you could. That's why the umpire's influence on results can only be evaluated on a game by game basis and not by aggregated data. Obviously getting the rub of the green in twenty matches doesn't mean you win all of those games that you would have otherwise lost, but it's also logical to conclude that your odds of ''pinching'' one are far greater than a team that may have only got the rub of the green twice. This concept is known as non-linear correlation but of course you already knew that ...