Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[The Swans Blog]

I think this has been explained a few times before, but probably many pages ago. Something like:
- If Sydney make finals, flagpole thinks they're a good chance for the flag
- Squiggle thinks Sydney will make finals
- Flagpole therefore gets to consider Sydney as a decent possibility for the flag and thinks they're the second best chance to win it.

I think.

Whereas most of us would probably take the actual prerequisite of making finals into account when making the calculations - i.e. if Sydney make finals I think they're a better chance of winning the flag than Adelaide, but they're only 50/50 to make finals whereas Adelaide are a lock. So Adelaide are actually the better chance to win the flag at just over halfway through the season.

I've started to look at this year a little bit like this, given the relative fragility and inconsistency of most of the top teams. Who do you think can win at least three finals in four weeks, including a GF at the MCG? Who has the proven form to go on a streak like that, and who do you trust in finals-type intensity multiple weeks in a row? Which of these teams actually look like they're playing good footy, and potentially building to September?

I'd have GWS first, then probably Sydney second tbh. Then I'd take probably Melbourne, then Geelong. Then maybe Port, then Richmond, then Adelaide. Adelaide's best is maybe the best in the comp, but I just couldn't trust them not to throw in a shocker at some point. Dogs are a wildcard if they can actually pick up some form, but it doesn't look likely at the moment.

So while I can look at Sydney's draw and wonder if they can even make it, I'd be comfortable backing them as one of the main fancies if they happen to sneak in. GWS are solid, but Adelaide as second favourites looks fraught with danger and the rest lack decent and/or consistent form.

It was tongue in cheek FS knows. I've been on the threads since started it years ago

 

[hutchy31]

It was tongue in cheek FS knows. I've been on the threads since started it years ago

Yeah, I just took an opportunity to spew my inconsequential thoughts on the flag race. You were just unlucky your post left the door ajar.

 

[drazah]

Flagpole ignores ladder position

Surely flagpole should take into account Richmond's recent success in finals games?

 

[beert]

I think squiggle left a suitcase full of cash in the middle of the graph this year. Look at every club go for it!

 

[Final Siren]

It was tongue in cheek FS knows. I've been on the threads since started it years ago

It's still a fair point; Flagpole is unintuitive like that. But I had an idea for an improvement: slide flags lower down on flagpoles to show their chances of missing finals. So a team with a 50% chance of making the finals would have its flag halfway up the pole.

Something like this:

I still need to test how well this works as a predictor though.

 

[The Swans Blog]

It's still a fair point; Flagpole is unintuitive like that. But I had an idea for an improvement: slide flags lower down on flagpoles to show their chances of missing finals. So a team with a 50% chance of making the finals would have its flag halfway up the pole.

Something like this:

I still need to test how well this works as a predictor though.

Still, the fact that Sydney has a better chance than higher placed teams is a little bizarre. I get that form is big contributor. Your mob could easily have been 1st if they knew how to close matches.

Some very big games this weekend, Demons vs Swans, Giants vs Cats

 

[cryptor]

It's still a fair point; Flagpole is unintuitive like that. But I had an idea for an improvement: slide flags lower down on flagpoles to show their chances of missing finals. So a team with a 50% chance of making the finals would have its flag halfway up the pole.

Something like this:

I still need to test how well this works as a predictor though.

Wouldn't the flag at half-staff indicate that the team's finals chances are dead?

 

[evo]

It's still a fair point; Flagpole is unintuitive like that. But I had an idea for an improvement: slide flags lower down on flagpoles to show their chances of missing finals. So a team with a 50% chance of making the finals would have its flag halfway up the pole.

Something like this:

I still need to test how well this works as a predictor though.

that definitely looks a lot more realistic.

 

[iluvparis]

that definitely looks a lot more realistic.

Isn't it just the squiggle predicted ladder though?

 

[evo]

Isn't it just the squiggle predicted ladder though?

maybe.

 

[RedStarUncle]

It's still a fair point; Flagpole is unintuitive like that. But I had an idea for an improvement: slide flags lower down on flagpoles to show their chances of missing finals. So a team with a 50% chance of making the finals would have its flag halfway up the pole.

Something like this:

I still need to test how well this works as a predictor though.

I'd put a little team-coloured knob on top of the flag-pole to show more clearly that there are two pieces of information (the height of the flag and the overall height of the pole).

 

[Final Siren]

I'd put a little team-coloured knob on top of the flag-pole to show more clearly that there are two pieces of information (the height of the flag and the overall height of the pole).

Good idea!

 

[HTT]

It's still a fair point; Flagpole is unintuitive like that. But I had an idea for an improvement: slide flags lower down on flagpoles to show their chances of missing finals. So a team with a 50% chance of making the finals would have its flag halfway up the pole.

Something like this:

I still need to test how well this works as a predictor though.

For clarification, does flag pole rate a team's chance of winning a grand final once in the grand final, or once making the finals?

 

[beert]

Wow! Squiggle now thinks swans will finish 5th. Of course, it doesn't know that Melbourne was playing without a forward line tonight, and a couple of other players.

It might be a tad on the optimistic side for my money.

 

[treefingers]

Squiggle thinks the Swans will make the grand final now, too. They could probably finish top 4 as well, remarkable really.

 

[Power Raid]

The Swans could be a real force come September. what an amazing turn around, what an amazing season.

 

[Joao]

As much as some like to hate on the Swans (cola, academy etc) would be something if they somehow won the flag from 0-6. You would think they have to spend too many tickets getting there though. Wonder what odds they were for the flag after round 6?

 

[Jase Cutler]

Wow! Squiggle now thinks swans will finish 5th. Of course, it doesn't know that Melbourne was playing without a forward line tonight, and a couple of other players.

It might be a tad on the optimistic side for my money.

Don't think Squiggle took into account Swans playing with 1 less player 98% of the game neither

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Don't think Squiggle took into account Swans playing with 1 less player 98% of the game neither

Or that Nathan Jones and Jack Viney played half a game between them.

Swings and roundabouts.

 

[chazwazza]

Sydney heading straight for their 05 flag

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

Whoooooosh

 

[Xtreme]

Squiggle thinks the Swans will make the grand final now, too. They could probably finish top 4 as well, remarkable really.

My worst nightmare esp if its against the cats!

 

[Praetorian]

Wow! Squiggle now thinks swans will finish 5th. Of course, it doesn't know that Melbourne was playing without a forward line tonight, and a couple of other players.

It might be a tad on the optimistic side for my money.

Fake squiggle movements! sad!


tbh despite all our excuses it looked like a training drill all night and the swans should have won by more, so it's probably justified

 

[Pessimistic]

Swan and Adelaide heading to their starting positions

Now the whole set shows all the vics on a mediocre huddle and the others either better or worse.

We know home ground advantage exacerbates this - but does squiggle take it into account?

 

[HTT]

Tigs into the 4