Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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2017 Round 13​

Bula! I'm back from Fiji. It was really nice. I learned to walk really slowly, like I had nowhere in particular to be, because I didn't. It was like a parallel universe where everything was just fine. I even listened to the start of the Richmond v Sydney game in Nadi Airport and we were 5 or 6 goals up. Then I landed in Melbourne and everything was back to normal.

qZ7gkga.jpg

Animated!

bqONVnL.gif

The real story right now is that the door to Top 4 is wiiide open. There's a real chance that 14 wins might be enough to break in, and that's a low number. Last year Adelaide missed out with 16 wins and a percentage of 138%, and West Coast, also with 16 wins, finished 6th. Only once this decade has the 4th-placed team held fewer than 16 wins: Sydney with 15.5 in 2013.

But before then -- before the arrival of the expansion easy-beats in Gold Coast and GWS -- teams commonly made Top 4 with 15, 14, or even 13 wins. We're looking at a return to that.

Which means that although the most likely Top 4 remains the same as it's been for a while -- Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, and Port Adelaide -- we aren't far away from a world in which Melbourne squeeze in there, or Richmond, or one of a number of other teams.

bilUnYk.png

The Ladder Predictor tips Port for 4th with 13 wins, but I reckon someone will string together a chain of wins to drive that number a little higher.

Here's the Tower of Power for the last two weeks, since I missed last week. You can see that there's no more flattening out at the top, as things have really opened up with the Bulldogs and Port sliding while Melbourne, West Coast and Sydney have pushed up.

j5WIwTt.gif

It was a huge week for Melbourne, who comprehensively dismantled the Dogs and bounced right up into contention.

To a lesser degree, it was also good for West Coast in beating the Cats, and Carlton in overpowering Gold Coast in Queensland.

The other big change was Carlton vacating a likely bottom-2 spot with wins over GWS and Gold Coast. Hawthorn are most likely to take it, but it could easily go to Fremantle, Gold Coast, or North Melbourne, who have fallen away badly.

Richmond v Sydney was interesting, because they're two teams the squiggle rates quite differently to public perception: it's always liked Sydney for finals even when they were 16th, and still doesn't think too much of Richmond. The game actually played out extremely close to prediction, with squiggle tipping 73-80 and reality coming in at 71-80.

While it's fascinating to imagine a ladder with Richmond's close wins reversed, with the Tigers sitting two games clear with 11 wins and 1 loss, the fact is they haven't been able to beat Fremantle (in Melbourne), a Bulldogs outfit that's 6-6, and 12th-placed Sydney (also in Melbourne). They also haven't put anyone away other than Brisbane, North Melbourne, and Carlton. Instead what they've mostly done is fight out two- and three- goal wins against middle-ish teams like Collingwood, West Coast (in Melbourne), Melbourne, and Essendon.

To the squiggle's cold, unfeeling eye, this looks like a mid-tier team with a helpful draw, which has a solid defense but lacks the ability to score freely enough to be a genuine flag threat. If the Tigers can obliterate someone, that will change. But at the moment, it's too easy to explain their results as within-the-margin-of-error of what you'd expect from a team that's somewhere around the middle.

And because attack wins flags, the Tigers still look abysmal on flagpole, and the Crows still flap highest:

XzGJeOq.gif

Live squiggle!

Links to other online footy analysis!
 
Final Siren said:
2017 Round 13​

Bula! I'm back from Fiji. It was really nice. I learned to walk really slowly, like I had nowhere in particular to be, because I didn't. It was like a parallel universe where everything was just fine. I even listened to the start of the Richmond v Sydney game in Nadi Airport and we were 5 or 6 goals up. Then I landed in Melbourne and everything was back to normal.

qZ7gkga.jpg

Animated!

bqONVnL.gif

The real story right now is that the door to Top 4 is wiiide open. There's a real chance that 14 wins might be enough to break in, and that's a low number. Last year Adelaide missed out with 16 wins and a percentage of 138%, and West Coast, also with 16 wins, finished 6th. Only once this decade has the 4th-placed team held fewer than 16 wins: Sydney with 15.5 in 2013.

But before then -- before the arrival of the expansion easy-beats in Gold Coast and GWS -- teams commonly made Top 4 with 15, 14, or even 13 wins. We're looking at a return to that.

Which means that although the most likely Top 4 remains the same as it's been for a while -- Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, and Port Adelaide -- we aren't far away from a world in which Melbourne squeeze in there, or Richmond, or one of a number of other teams.

bilUnYk.png

The Ladder Predictor tips Port for 4th with 13 wins, but I reckon someone will string together a chain of wins to drive that number a little higher.

Here's the Tower of Power for the last two weeks, since I missed last week. You can see that there's no more flattening out at the top, as things have really opened up with the Bulldogs and Port sliding while Melbourne, West Coast and Sydney have pushed up.

j5WIwTt.gif

It was a huge week for Melbourne, who comprehensively dismantled the Dogs and bounced right up into contention.

To a lesser degree, it was also good for West Coast in beating the Cats, and Carlton in overpowering Gold Coast in Queensland.

The other big change was Carlton vacating a likely bottom-2 spot with wins over GWS and Gold Coast. Hawthorn are most likely to take it, but it could easily go to Fremantle, Gold Coast, or North Melbourne, who have fallen away badly.

Richmond v Sydney was interesting, because they're two teams the squiggle rates quite differently to public perception: it's always liked Sydney for finals even when they were 16th, and still doesn't think too much of Richmond. The game actually played out extremely close to prediction, with squiggle tipping 73-80 and reality coming in at 71-80.

While it's fascinating to imagine a ladder with Richmond's close wins reversed, with the Tigers sitting two games clear with 11 wins and 1 loss, the fact is they haven't been able to beat Fremantle (in Melbourne), a Bulldogs outfit that's 6-6, and 12th-placed Sydney (also in Melbourne). They also haven't put anyone away other than Brisbane, North Melbourne, and Carlton. Instead what they've mostly done is fight out two- and three- goal wins against middle-ish teams like Collingwood, West Coast (in Melbourne), Melbourne, and Essendon.

To the squiggle's cold, unfeeling eye, this looks like a mid-tier team with a helpful draw, which has a solid defense but lacks the ability to score freely enough to be a genuine flag threat. If the Tigers can obliterate someone, that will change. But at the moment, it's too easy to explain their results as within-the-margin-of-error of what you'd expect from a team that's somewhere around the middle.

And because attack wins flags, the Tigers still look abysmal on flagpole, and the Crows still flap highest:

XzGJeOq.gif

Live squiggle!

Links to other online footy analysis!
Click to expand...
Glad you can find happiness outside of footy, because sure as hell you won't find in footy as a Tiges supporter. Sorry.
 
 

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Forward Press said:
Look at Melbourne go!

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Lock them in for finals and premiership smokey. Lid should definitely be off if they beat us this weekend.
Click to expand...
In all seriousness, if we win the next two I'm calling the club and getting the Grand Final ticket guarantee.
 
Striker475 said:
In all seriousness, if we win the next two I'm calling the club and getting the Grand Final ticket guarantee.
Click to expand...

I understand the caution but you belted Adelaide at home and the reigning premiers last weekend, lock in finals. Top 4 is definitely feasible too, your draw is relatively soft and if you snap a 17 game losing streak here then that should give your guys so much confidence for the rest of the year.
 
Melbourne with some solid flagpole movement!

The Crows squeezed up into the top 4 nicely in the last 2 weeks of the Tower of Power. Almost all other top 8 contenders stretched out over the same period.
 
Sydney still flying under the radar but Squiggle knows we're coming. What the hell happened that first six weeks? Unprecedented.
 
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot said:
Melbourne with some solid flagpole movement!

The Crows squeezed up into the top 4 nicely in the last 2 weeks of the Tower of Power. Almost all other top 8 contenders stretched out over the same period.
Click to expand...
I'll have some serious flagpole movement if we manage to overcome the Eagles this weekend. (I don't think we will).
 
Striker475 said:
Final Siren: when was the last time Melbourne had such a high rating?
Click to expand...
Not long ago! Only Round 21 last year, after another Port Adelaide belting (54-94).

The difference is that back then, there were another 8 teams ahead of Melbourne, because it was late in the year, and quite a few were a long way ahead, in premiership territory. Right now there are only 5 teams ahead of the Demons, plus the Bulldogs, and none are really dominating.
 

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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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