Prediction Round 1, 2025: Starting 23

[Dom sheed pocket]

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Skills coming out of the back half still have me worried.

Gov is a great field kick...Then Crickets.

Ryan I still think is a must in a Jetta/creative role.

I’d have Maric down there as third tall/distributor.

Given the way the game is played, I think you can get away with two good ball users if you also have players who can run and carry.

I’d have Ginbey/Baker as guys who can rebound and run it out of the back half and Maric as the ball user.

 

[stallon]

Maric is a good kick but not an excellent one (for mine), nor can he really run and create the way Ryan could.
I'd argue it's almost more important to have a creater in the back half to make it easier for those in the front half.

Dewar wing drifting forward, Hewett, Long, Reid, Brockman, Johnston and even Hutch can all produce some forward magic too.

Hewett and Reid sure, Dewar and Long are closer to a Cripps type than a Willie Rioli type, and Johnston hasn't even played an AFL game for us forward of the d50 line. Brockman idk what he's doing but I dont think he's next in line to come in either.

I think we just don't have the right player to be that kick AND bring run, and that's fine for now.
A lot of clubs dont have this player, they have a player or two with very good kicks, and then a player or two who can run and break lines.
Geelong is a good example here, they based most of their gameplan off rebound as they had no midfield, and they only have Stewart to create and then a heap of runners, their best runner Holmes is not a good kick.

 

[Elite Pete]

Duggan 40% -will play a fair bit of wing
Graham 60% - main defensive mid
Yeo - 70% - f/t mid but managed TOG
Reid 60% - mid/fwd split dependent on fitness
Kelly 40% will play hf with some mid time
Hewett 30% will cover Yeo’s low tog and play fwd

I could also see Brockman pinch hitting in the midfield but as of right now I don’t have him in my B23 as I have a lot of mid/fwd rotations already.

Flynn as main ruck 75-80% of centre bounces with JWill playing 2nd ruck/fwd.

FWIW here’s my B23:

FB: Cole Edwards/Barnett Hough
HB Baker Gov Ginbey
C: Hunt Yeo Duggan
HF Kelly Allen Cripps
FF: Ryan Waterman Long
R: Flynn Reid Graham
I/C Hewett Maric JWill Dewar
Sub: Hall/Chesser

When the rubber hits the road and there’s an important centre bounce in a close game I’m guessing our #1 set up will be Yeo, Reid, Graham with Duggan on a wing and Kelly at HF pushing up to stoppage.

The highest mid playing 70% CBA is low.

Too much spread imo

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

The highest mid playing 70% CBA is low.

Too much spread imo

Fair criticism. Perhaps the splits should be less even, but most of the co te ding clubs have half a dozen or so players going through the midfield.

If I was to revise the % I’d give more to Yeo and Reid (fitness permitting).

 

[Elite Pete]

Fair criticism. Perhaps the splits should be less even, but most of the co te ding clubs have half a dozen or so players going through the midfield.

If I was to revise the % I’d give more to Yeo and Reid (fitness permitting).

Yeah agreed 6 on ballers will probably roll through there somehow but not having the prime pure mid makes it hard to see how the minutes in there will be managed.

 

[stallon]

The highest mid playing 70% CBA is low.

Too much spread imo

I like to think our midfield should/does have some similarities to Ports.
Yeo, Reid and Kelly to Butters, Rozee and JHF.
Duggan and Graham to Wines and Drew.
Hewett to Mead as that 6th lower cba rotation.

Port had butters 66%, Rozee 62%, then nobody else above 56%.

6 guys through there allows for some smaller cba numbers, its generally the clubs with tight rotations that go 80% CBAs

 

[Elite Pete]

I like to think our midfield should/does have some similarities to Ports.
Yeo, Reid and Kelly to Butters, Rozee and JHF.
Duggan and Graham to Wines and Drew.
Hewett to Mead as that 6th lower cba rotation.

Port had butters 66%, Rozee 62%, then nobody else above 56%.

6 guys through there allows for some smaller cba numbers, its generally the clubs with tight rotations that go 80% CBAs

And often got criticised for their CBA and clearance work. Especially from their supporters and their own Kornes.

For a team with those 3 talents in there and wasn’t a great advantage to them, I wouldn’t be basing out rotations on theirs imo.

Be interesting to see how Mini and Boots do it.

 

[Keys]

If we were playing this weekend, taking into account availability, this is the side I’d pick :

FB: Hough Barnett Maric
HB: Ginbey McGovern Baker
R: Flynn Reid Graham
C: Hunt Yeo Kelly
HF: Hewett Waterman Cripps
FF: Ryan Allen Owies
I/C: Cole Duggan Dewar J-Williams
EM: Long Hutchinson Hall A-Reid

Not selected- Brockman, Rawlinson, Livingstone, B-Williams

Draftees- Allan, Shanahan, Gross, Grego, Davis, Champion

Unavailable- Sheed, Chesser, Petruccelle, Johnston, Bazzo, Jamieson, Edwards

That side isn’t far off best 22 with full availability- Edwards is the only one unavailable that has genuine claims in the 22 and would replace Barnett if fit

The winner of the Brock v Van Es battle for the last spot would have claims on the FB spot as well. Especially if Edwards doesn’t get over his foot injury in time

Flynn v Bailey for the no.1 ruck spot is still to play out but Flynn is ahead for now

Dewar is the most vulnerable with either of Long or Hutchinson breathing down his neck - I’ve chosen Dewar now mainly because he’s had a better preseason so far but they could easily change over the next few weeks

Ryan gets a spot because of his creativity but it will be interesting to see how far that gets him with McQualter if his repeat running/defensive pressure is below standard

Beyond that the likes of Hunt, Cole and Cripps could fun their spots under pressure if their form dips and some of the youngsters are performing

 

[stallon]

And often got criticised for their CBA and clearance work. Especially from their supporters and their own Kornes.

For a team with those 3 talents in there and wasn’t a great advantage to them, I wouldn’t be basing out rotations on theirs imo.

Be interesting to see how Mini and Boots do it.

They cant run those 3 in there, they are all attacking players. Thats what we ran in 2024, 3 attacking players in Yeo Reid and Kelly. it looked awful.
Thats where Duggan and Graham fit(at least one of them in there at all times), but we also need to add Hewett which makes 6.

My prediction is only off early training and what we know from last season, plus a bit of my own thoughts of what could work, but ye we dont really have a guy who should be doing 80% CBAs, outside Duggan who seems like the all-rounder type who could do it(not calling him elite or anything).

 

[We_The_West]

If we were playing this weekend, taking into account availability, this is the side I’d pick :

FB: Hough Barnett Maric
HB: Ginbey McGovern Baker
R: Flynn Reid Graham
C: Hunt Yeo Kelly
HF: Hewett Waterman Cripps
FF: Ryan Allen Owies
I/C: Cole Duggan Dewar J-Williams
EM: Long Hutchinson Hall A-Reid

Not selected- Brockman, Rawlinson, Livingstone, B-Williams

Draftees- Allan, Shanahan, Gross, Grego, Davis, Champion

Unavailable- Sheed, Chesser, Petruccelle, Johnston, Bazzo, Jamieson, Edwards

That side isn’t far off best 22 with full availability- Edwards is the only one unavailable that has genuine claims in the 22 and would replace Barnett if fit

The winner of the Brock v Van Es battle for the last spot would have claims on the FB spot as well. Especially if Edwards doesn’t get over his foot injury in time

Flynn v Bailey for the no.1 ruck spot is still to play out but Flynn is ahead for now

Dewar is the most vulnerable with either of Long or Hutchinson breathing down his neck - I’ve chosen Dewar now mainly because he’s had a better preseason so far but they could easily change over the next few weeks

Ryan gets a spot because of his creativity but it will be interesting to see how far that gets him with McQualter if his repeat running/defensive pressure is below standard

Beyond that the likes of Hunt, Cole and Cripps could fun their spots under pressure if their form dips and some of the youngsters are performing

How have you seen Bo Allan's preseason so far? Has he been training with the defenders?

 

[FKASC]

Sheed 100% CBA

 

[WestCoast05]

Sheed 100% CBF

 

[Keystone agony]

How confident are we of TK moving to half forward more?

 

[stallon]

How confident are we of TK moving to half forward more?

A bit. Its a deduction rather than based on facts.

Gotta fit in Duggan. Graham and Hewett somehow.
General thought seems to be Yeo will do 70% CBAs again, Reid should drop back to 40-50%ish, Hewett probably 20-30%, then Graham and Duggan will probably have defensive roles where they split 100%.
Only 50% CBAs left for Kelly and everybody else, and Kelly has gotta go somewhere when not in the middle.

 

[WCE777]

A bit. Its a deduction rather than based on facts.

Gotta fit in Duggan. Graham and Hewett somehow.
General thought seems to be Yeo will do 70% CBAs again, Reid should drop back to 40-50%ish, Hewett probably 20-30%, then Graham and Duggan will probably have defensive roles where they split 100%.
Only 50% CBAs left for Kelly and everybody else, and Kelly has gotta go somewhere when not in the middle.

I agree, Kelly will need to go where the team needs him and can see a split between HF and midfield.
Finally a list that has some competition for spots, has come a long way in 1 year, excellent job by all involved and can't wait to see the evolution of this team over the next 2-3 years.

 

[Boohemian]

HFF is really where Kelly should be spending his time. Perhaps some short stints on ball.

 

[Keys]

I think we need to understand that as good as Hewett has looked this preseason he shouldn’t be expected to have an AFL standard tank this season. It’s likely then he’ll primarily be playing HF with occasional bursts on ball, much like his first year

That means Kelly will still spend most of his time as a mid for this year even though the suggestions that he spend more time as a HHF make sense

 

[Barrybran]

I did some maths on what the rotations might look like and I had Kelly splitting his time between inside mid and wing

 

[TheBudgies]

I think we need to understand that as good as Hewett has looked this preseason he shouldn’t be expected to have an AFL standard tank this season. It’s likely then he’ll primarily be playing HF with occasional bursts on ball, much like his first year

That means Kelly will still spend most of his time as a mid for this year even though the suggestions that he spend more time as a HHF make sense

I agree. I think the pair of them probably share 70% of CBAs with Hewett hopefully climbing up to around 30% max as the season progresses. Maybe Kelly 60% Hewett 10% for the first month with 5-10% swap each 3-4 weeks.

So need 400%
- Kelly/Hewett 70%
-Yeo 70%-80%
-Graham or Duggan 110%(envision sometimes needing to have a "stop the rot" defensive midfield very occasionally)
-Harley 70%-80%
-Hutchinson 30%-40%
-Ryan/Baker/Chesser/Hall/Allan/Ginbey/Long/Greggo/Gross/Cole/Petch/Brockman making up the other 60% which would be about 15-20 attendance between whichever 3-4 of these run through the middle.

 

[killlerkyle]

I agree. I think the pair of them probably share 70% of CBAs with Hewett hopefully climbing up to around 30% max as the season progresses. Maybe Kelly 60% Hewett 10% for the first month with 5-10% swap each 3-4 weeks.

So need 400%
- Kelly/Hewett 70%
-Yeo 70%-80%
-Graham or Duggan 110%(envision sometimes needing to have a "stop the rot" defensive midfield very occasionally)
-Harley 70%-80%
-Hutchinson 30%-40%
-Ryan/Baker/Chesser/Hall/Allan/Ginbey/Long/Greggo/Gross/Cole/Petch/Brockman making up the other 60% which would be about 15-20 attendance between whichever 3-4 of these run through the middle.

One of the 4 needs to be a ruck.

 

[stallon]

I think we need to understand that as good as Hewett has looked this preseason he shouldn’t be expected to have an AFL standard tank this season. It’s likely then he’ll primarily be playing HF with occasional bursts on ball, much like his first year

That means Kelly will still spend most of his time as a mid for this year even though the suggestions that he spend more time as a HHF make sense

Hewett still played between 30% and 60% CBAs in his first year after the bye. If we call it 30% as the lower limit for 2025 as he will be fitter and stronger than his first season, then there can really only be 30-50% left for Kelly. Assuming Duggan and Graham are actually used in the CBAs.

 

[stallon]

I agree. I think the pair of them probably share 70% of CBAs with Hewett hopefully climbing up to around 30% max as the season progresses. Maybe Kelly 60% Hewett 10% for the first month with 5-10% swap each 3-4 weeks.

So need 400%
- Kelly/Hewett 70%
-Yeo 70%-80%
-Graham or Duggan 110%(envision sometimes needing to have a "stop the rot" defensive midfield very occasionally)
-Harley 70%-80%
-Hutchinson 30%-40%
-Ryan/Baker/Chesser/Hall/Allan/Ginbey/Long/Greggo/Gross/Cole/Petch/Brockman making up the other 60% which would be about 15-20 attendance between whichever 3-4 of these run through the middle.

We get 300% for mids, not 400
Yeo 70%
Reid 50-60%
Duggan and Graham split 100%
Leaves about 70-80% for Hewett, Kelly and whoever else to share

 

[TheBudgies]

One of the 4 needs to be a ruck.

Yep ****ed that.

Thought I had the ruckman and just kept adding midfielders
So need 400%
- Kelly/Hewett 50%
-Yeo 65-70%
-Graham or Duggan 110%(envision sometimes needing to have a "stop the rot" defensive midfield very occasionally)
-Harley 65-70%
-Flynn 80%
-J.WILL 20%
-Hutchinson/Ryan/Baker/Chesser/Hall/Allan/Ginbey/Long/Greggo/Gross/Cole/Petch/Brockman making up the other 5-10% which would be about 3 attendance between whichever 3-4 of these run through the middle.

 

[Shueygod]

0 doubt in my mind Chesser becomes a capable AFL player barring injury.

 

[PremiershipNo4]

0 doubt in my mind Chesser becomes a capable AFL player barring injury.

I think Chesser and quite a few other players start with a clean slate under a new coach, an opportunity to shine for all.
I hope Chesser makes it, he’s got some wheels on him, it would great to see him become a line breaking player.