Player Watch Rookie Pick #45 (2015) - Dan Houston

[PJ Power]

Largely agree. I think Marshall's loss makes Luko's acquisition more important. I initially didn't want him for that forward role but now that I think Todd is done it almost becomes a must get because he have little quality depth there.

The part I disagree is the top 12 pick you mentioned. I'd want that to be top 8 in this draft.

Barrett perhaps the only one that goes in the national draft for which we may need to match. I think there's a good chance the other 3 go in the 4th round or rookie draft so I'm not too worried about matching.

The other thing is, I'm sorta hoping we lose Evans and Narkle as UFAs to another club as that would get us a couple of 3rd round compos. I hope there's interest from elsewhere and we don't need to delist them.

I'm also open to trading Burton if it gets us a decent pick.

I would say if our overall trade window is as follows then I'd take it as a success

Out: Houston, Soldo, Clurey, FEvans and Narkle
In: top 8 pick, Luko, Perryman, Richards and some late picks

If we’re losing Soldo, we should be getting back almost what we paid for him. He’s only one year on and still under contract. His exposed form from this year shouldn’t lower his value. I’d be trying to bundle Clurey and Soldo together and send to West Coast with our current second round pick for their second and third round picks, which would come in around picks 20 and 40 before FS and NGA selection. Pick 40 (WCE 3rd round) gets Richards. We then take the Houston 1st round and WCE 2nd round to the draft, and use our existing later picks for Barrett and whichever FS are needed that way.

 

[nadsee]

from what i can gather houston enquired about a trade via his manager. it is not a priority that he goes back to melbourne.

but that being said, this upcoming draft seems to be a gold mine of talent. his choice of club probably is only a starting point for us.
we have some underachievers on our list, struggling to make an impact at the magpies, that we need to use as part of a package to get as many picks in this draft as possible. first round as many picks as we can.
with a bit of luck , losing 1 houston could give us 3 houston's.

 

[Addy23]

If we’re losing Soldo, we should be getting back almost what we paid for him. He’s only one year on and still under contract. His exposed form from this year shouldn’t lower his value. I’d be trying to bundle Clurey and Soldo together and send to West Coast with our current second round pick for their second and third round picks, which would come in around picks 20 and 40 before FS and NGA selection. Pick 40 (WCE 3rd round) gets Richards. We then take the Houston 1st round and WCE 2nd round to the draft, and use our existing later picks for Barrett and whichever FS are needed that way.

I think we paid a 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounder for him which was overs by itself. If we got a 2nd back I'd be running away with it. I'm not sure what people see with Soldo, he's not even being named emergency ahead of Visentini so clearly there's something going on and maybe he's switched off already.

If we could take Saints 2nd round for Soldo and get a 3rd round for Clurey (thats optimistic, but maybe West Coast may not actually need those picks so could be willing to trade them away) then I'd consider that a win. Best case scenario is we flip that 24 for Luko but that again might be a stretch.

 

[philthy05]

If we’re losing Soldo, we should be getting back almost what we paid for him. He’s only one year on and still under contract. His exposed form from this year shouldn’t lower his value. I’d be trying to bundle Clurey and Soldo together and send to West Coast with our current second round pick for their second and third round picks, which would come in around picks 20 and 40 before FS and NGA selection. Pick 40 (WCE 3rd round) gets Richards. We then take the Houston 1st round and WCE 2nd round to the draft, and use our existing later picks for Barrett and whichever FS are needed that way.

In reality we overpaid for him, and another injury riddled year means he is worth less than we paid at least in another teams eyes.


But he’s contracted and there’s zero reason to give him up for less than we want to give him up for.

 

[philthy05]

I think we paid a 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounder for him which was overs by itself. If we got a 2nd back I'd be running away with it. I'm not sure what people see with Soldo, he's not even being named emergency ahead of Visentini so clearly there's something going on and maybe he's switched off already.

If we could take Saints 2nd round for Soldo and get a 3rd round for Clurey (thats optimistic, but maybe West Coast may not actually need those picks so could be willing to trade them away) then I'd consider that a win. Best case scenario is we flip that 24 for Luko but that again might be a stretch.

We paid three 2nd rounders for soldo and a pick a cpl spots later than one of those 2nd rounders came back.

basically call it two 2nd rounders

were not getting a 3rd for clurey, think he’s a giveaway. Teams don’t pay for players who aren’t getting regular games. It’s the same reason I don’t think we should be paying anything other than a token pick for Richards.

 

[philthy05]

I still think it’s Carlton for Houston, and I reckon the pick 11 crap is just them posturing via their media puppets.

 

[Malibu#27]

I still think it’s Carlton for Houston, and I reckon the pick 11 crap is just them posturing via their media puppets.

Of course it’s Carlton. The minute there was any hint of him heading ho because of his changed personal circumstances it was Carlton - Voss is there and had the inside running as well as several other ex port people he is familiar with. They know him and it makes it a comfortable change.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

North Melbourne's future first puts us into the Dyson Sharp conversation. Which is a conversation worth being in.

Although if he doesn't want to go to Melbourne I can't see him wanting to go to North.

I personally feel he is committed to leaving this year and he will end up at a club that can get a deal done (both contractually and through trade).

 

[philthy05]

There’s just no way that Dan agrees to go to north, and I would be very nervous about taking a future 1st from north. People want to call that sharp, but Richmond are 100% wooden spooners and taking pick 1 next year.

North with another year under their belts, wardlaw sheezel etc getting better, another year under Clarkson , and Houston joining them is exactly what they need well I don’t see them playing finals but they could easily lift out of a bottom 4 where Richmond and eagles are basically cemented.

And we don’t know what’s going to happen with priority compo picks.

Thst north pick has zero chance of being pick 1 or 2, but easily could be as high as pick 8.

Would I swap Houston for pick 8 in 2025? That’s ****ing horrible for us.

 

[TeeKray]

Who do people say 'pick 11 will become pick 13' etc? Surely we're at the stage where academy and FS picks aren't considered part of the draft pool and are mainly an administrative rort with faux bids taking place to facilitate it. Pick 11 is still the 11th best player available.

Houston will be going to Carlton and their pick 11 will be the main part of the deal.

 

[philthy05]

Who do people say 'pick 11 will become pick 13' etc? Surely we're at the stage where academy and FS picks aren't considered part of the draft pool and are mainly an administrative rort with faux bids taking place to facilitate it. Pick 11 is still the 11th best player available.

Houston will be going to Carlton and their pick 11 will be the main part of the deal.

Agree , f/s and ngas only push numbers back but not the prospects you have access to. It’s irritating that people still don’t get that.


Compo picks and priority picks however do push picks back. Carlton’s pick 11 will becomes a true pick 12 if saints get band 1 for battle (absurd but we know the afl)


Also, ngas and f/s may not affect what players are available at picks, but it does affect the points value of picks you’re going to use to match bids.

Ie, we go into the draft with picks 45 and 48 to match bids on a player those picks get moved back 10 spots and then they have zero value for matching bids.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

There’s just no way that Dan agrees to go to north, and I would be very nervous about taking a future 1st from north. People want to call that sharp, but Richmond are 100% wooden spooners and taking pick 1 next year.

North with another year under their belts, wardlaw sheezel etc getting better, another year under Clarkson , and Houston joining them is exactly what they need well I don’t see them playing finals but they could easily lift out of a bottom 4 where Richmond and eagles are basically cemented.

And we don’t know what’s going to happen with priority compo picks.

Thst north pick has zero chance of being pick 1 or 2, but easily could be as high as pick 8.

Would I swap Houston for pick 8 in 2025? That’s ****ing horrible for us.

Having two first rounders gives ammunition to get up to the pick that Sharp lands at.

Richmond might think twice about taking an SA boy after JHF

 

[RangaInTeal]

Having two first rounders gives ammunition to get up to the pick that Sharp lands at.

Richmond might think twice about taking an SA boy after JHF

Few great kids coming through thy Centrals program at the moment, Sharp, Gordon, Ronezwig, Cochrane, De Bias, McPhedran

 

[philthy05]

I think the price that is being talked about for other guys really tells us 2 1sts should not just an empty threat or opening gambit, but the minimum expectation

There’s consistent talk about other players this year moving for more than a first

Barass - a guy 1 year and 7 months older than Houston who has never ran out a full season in his career to date. Think about that, even Ryan Burton

3

Ryan Burton

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

277.3

4star

D

16.8

4star

K

12.3

5star

HB

4.5

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

MG

277.3

4star

D

13.4

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.4

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.2

4star

, a guy whose body we trust as far as we could throw Hinkley across the Torrens, has completed 4 full seasons in his career. There’s talk that he’s going to cost more than just hawks 1st.

Bailey smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

- a guy with off field issues galore, just missed the entire season with an acl injury and is out of contract and appears ready to walk out of the dogs whether they trade him or not and talk is he will cost more than a 1st

Dan Rioli - a halfback of similar age and contract status to Houston but has never been all-Australian is expected to cost more than a 1st rounder



Yeah, if we take less than 2 1sts we’re softcocks.

 

[PAFC66]

Of course it’s Carlton. The minute there was any hint of him heading ho because of his changed personal circumstances it was Carlton - Voss is there and had the inside running as well as several other ex port people he is familiar with. They know him and it makes it a comfortable change.

Do we really want to make a club about to gun for a flag that little bit better ? He's exactly what they're missing. We should be holding Houston to his contract if we're only getting one first rounder. He can ask again next year, otherwise don't be a ******** and publicly tell your fans you're staying.

 

[philthy05]

Do we really want to make a club about to gun for a flag that little bit better ? He's exactly what they're missing. We should be holding Houston to his contract if we're only getting one first rounder. He can ask again next year, otherwise don't be a ******** and publicly tell your fans you're staying.

That’s why we sent Steven’s to Carlton. Lots is made about us not being happy with the offer, but a large part of it was that the trade would have made us weaker and a direct competitor for a flag much stronger.

In the end history shows we made the right call.

I’m adamant that without Dan next year we go backwards barring some massive improvements from other players, and Carlton have had a lot of injuries lower their flag chances this year. Better run with injuries and adding Dan they should probably be flag favourites.

It’s absolute self sabotage sending him to the blues.

 

[Chrizzt]

I have a feeling it's going to be Houston for 11 + Richmond's F2 + steak knives. Given they are almost certainly spooners next year having that first pick of the second round (i.e. day 2 of draft) is not too bad.

Think the club may have set itself up a bit poorly here, can't see us walking with two first rounders unfortunately. Perhaps the line will be "we see Richmond's future second as being pretty close to a first rounder next year"

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I have a feeling it's going to be Houston for 11 + Richmond's F2 + steak knives. Given they are almost certainly spooners next year having that first pick of the second round (i.e. day 2 of draft) is not too bad.

Think the club may have set itself up a bit poorly here, can't see us walking with two first rounders unfortunately. Perhaps the line will be "we see Richmond's future second as being pretty close to a first rounder next year"

If this happens they will tie up the 2nd rounder in the Luko trade so they can say it is 2 firsts.

 

[Bevoman]

I have a feeling it's going to be Houston for 11 + Richmond's F2 + steak knives. Given they are almost certainly spooners next year having that first pick of the second round (i.e. day 2 of draft) is not too bad.

Think the club may have set itself up a bit poorly here, can't see us walking with two first rounders unfortunately. Perhaps the line will be "we see Richmond's future second as being pretty close to a first rounder next year"

Dan is too old for Richmond's next flag, maybe it is back to the Dees

 

[Chrizzt]

Dan is too old for Richmond's next flag, maybe it is back to the Dees

Nah Dan is getting to Carlton, they will deal for it in a three way or some such

 

[Waspy79]

I would chip in money for a legal challenge through the courts if only it meant Houston could play finals before he becomes some other clubs problem

Houston should realistically be playing this week. He must feel physically ill about missing out and the unjust nature of the length of the suspension.

 

[PeacefulWarrior]

Houston should realistically be playing this week. He must feel physically ill about missing out and the unjust nature of the length of the suspension.

I will never forgive the afl for letting Maynard off for nearly killing a guy - getting zero weeks lol, and then banning Dan for 5.

It’s run by human garbage.

 

[scotty13]

With Dixon and Marshall likely to not be here next year... could we work a deal with Houston and Carlton that also gives us McKay?

 

[RangaInTeal]

With Dixon and Marshall likely to not be here next year... could we work a deal with Houston and Carlton that also gives us McKay?

No

 

[scotty13]

No

Why? His output over the last 5 years has been better than any of our forwards even though is is the number 2 forward at Carlton.