Richmond - time for a rebuild?

[JackOutback]

No team has gone a year winless in remotely modern football, and that includes GC and GWS in their formation years, Essendon in their top-up years and the Eagles when gutted by COVID. Richmond will win a game or two. However it is way too early to tell how the rebuild is going. Sure, they got some high draft picks, but more than half tend not to make it or become average footballers. See Melbourne and Gold Coast Suns. We won't be able to make even a remotely close call until one or two years has passed.

 

[Ralll]

Looking at the team that got pumped by Collingwood what stood out was it wasn't even a young team. They had 2 under 21s (Armstrong and Campbell) out there until the subs came on in the 3rd quarter.

At least if you've got a bunch of untried kids out there you can have some hope. Seeing journeymen like Dow, Ryan, Miller, etc spud it up but still get picked must be tough.

It is, and it worries me this is the direction Yze will continue with.
But hopefully it was tryouts for the remaining spots after the Lynch/Prestia types and the '24 draft guys get added for Rd 1.

 

[RUNVS]

Was actually quite impressed with the tigers last night. Showed a lot of grit, if they play with that attitude they will take some scalps. YZE is a poor coach though which will hold them back.

They lost by 80 points. No coach would be able to make the current Richmond team look good, or even competent.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yze already under pressure from Richmond fans and we're not even at round 1.

Looking at the team that got pumped by Collingwood what stood out was it wasn't even a young team. They had 2 under 21s (Armstrong and Campbell) out there until the subs came on in the 3rd quarter.

At least if you've got a bunch of untried kids out there you can have some hope. Seeing journeymen like Dow, Ryan, Miller, etc spud it up but still get picked must be tough.

The club had 13 players unavailable, 31 available.

Of the available players one is a pick 58 who only just turned 18.

3 were 1st or 2nd year key forwards. The 2nd year guy barely played any footy in his first year.

1 is a project ruck.

The youngsters are all wisely being managed carefully.

So you are down to just 26 options that would have any chance of competing.

So of course most mature depth guys are going to play.

The only senior listed players who played in the VFL team & not last night were Koschitzke, Smith, Alger, Hayes-Brown, Gray.

Of course it will help when Lynch, Prestia, Ralphsmith, Smillie, Lalor, Gibcus, Balta, Lefau, Clarke, Hotton, Faull, Young, Colina are available.

In terms of the rebuild, our top 5 draft picks of the last 4 years were not available, 1 Lalor, 7 Smillie, 9 Gibcus, 12 Hotton, 14 Faull. The next 2 in draft pick order 17 Brown & 21 Trainor played and looked good. 29 Banks was also ok. The 18yo key forwards 23 Armstrong & 28 Sims understandably struggled but it is too early for them to be playing at this level.

 

[RUNVS]

The club had 13 players unavailable, 31 available.

Of the available players one is a pick 58 who only just turned 18.

3 were 1st or 2nd year key forwards. The 2nd year guy barely played any footy in his first year.

1 is a project ruck.

The youngsters are all wisely being managed carefully.

So you are down to just 26 options that would have any chance of competing.

So of course most mature depth guys are going to play.

The only senior listed players who played in the VFL team & not last night were Koschitzke, Smith, Alger, Hayes-Brown, Gray.

Of course it will help when Lynch, Prestia, Ralphsmith, Smillie, Lalor, Gibcus, Balta, Lefau, Clarke, Hotton, Faull, Young, Colina are available.

and how many teams have won a flag from gutting their list this much and playing so many young kids? Melbourne maybe, but even then Roos realised the team was too young and brought in Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince to set training standards and protect the kids a bit.

 

[timokane]

tigers will be bottom 4 for the next 4-5 years

 

[not falcon]

and how many teams have won a flag from gutting their list this much and playing so many young kids? Melbourne maybe, but even then Roos realised the team was too young and brought in Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince to set training standards and protect the kids a bit.

How many teams win a flag with any list management strategy?

 

[RUNVS]

How many teams win a flag with any list management strategy?

I'd say trying not to bottom out has a fairly good record. How many times have the best teams over the last 20 years actually been in the bottom 4?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

and how many teams have won a flag from gutting their list this much and playing so many young kids? Melbourne maybe, but even then Roos realised the team was too young and brought in Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince to set training standards and protect the kids a bit.

Richmond won't be aiming to flood our team full of kids who aren't ready to play.

FB Balta Blight Miller
HB Short Brown Vlastuin Broad
C Ralphsmith Taranto Banks Clarke
HF Mansell Lalor Rioli Campbell
FF Lefau Lynch Bauer
R Nankervis Hopper Prestia Smillie

23rd: Trainor

This is roughly the team the club would be aiming to get on the park and then of course feed the young players into the team to fill gaps created by injury/suspension/loss of form etc.

The club will no doubt start looking to recruit some mature depth from this year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'd say trying not to bottom out has a fairly good record. How many times have the best teams over the last 20 years actually been in the bottom 4?

To be a really strong team that performs over a 6-8 year period you need a strong core of mids & key position players. Richmond recognised it did not have that so started the process of trading for the draft picks to get some.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'd say trying not to bottom out has a fairly good record. How many times have the best teams over the last 20 years actually been in the bottom 4?

Plenty of bodies in that graveyard.

Hawks after 2018.

Freo after Lyon.

Saints after Lyon.

North after B Scott.

Blues Malthouse.

Plenty more I am sure.

 

[JackOutback]

I'd say trying not to bottom out has a fairly good record. How many times have the best teams over the last 20 years actually been in the bottom 4?

General consensus is the best teams of this century are Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Eagles, Brisbane, maybe Collingwood. Hawthorn, Eagles, Brisbane and Collingwood have all been in the bottom four. Geelong and Sydney haven't but do have some advantages the others don't.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The club had 13 players unavailable, 31 available.

Of the available players one is a pick 58 who only just turned 18.

3 were 1st or 2nd year key forwards. The 2nd year guy barely played any footy in his first year.

1 is a project ruck.

The youngsters are all wisely being managed carefully.

So you are down to just 26 options that would have any chance of competing.

So of course most mature depth guys are going to play.

The only senior listed players who played in the VFL team & not last night were Koschitzke, Smith, Alger, Hayes-Brown, Gray.

Of course it will help when Lynch, Prestia, Ralphsmith, Smillie, Lalor, Gibcus, Balta, Lefau, Clarke, Hotton, Faull, Young, Colina are available.

In terms of the rebuild, our top 5 draft picks of the last 4 years were not available, 1 Lalor, 7 Smillie, 9 Gibcus, 12 Hotton, 14 Faull. The next 2 in draft pick order 17 Brown & 21 Trainor played and looked good. 29 Banks was also ok. The 18yo key forwards 23 Armstrong & 28 Sims understandably struggled but it is too early for them to be playing at this level.

I get some of your draftees were unavailable.

But were you happy with Dow playing a full game and McIntosh attending centre bounces while McAuliffe spent most of the night on the bench? Or that Trainor was left on the bench?

The selection is one part but the performance is another. Richmond had a team full of 21+ year olds in their 4th+ season of footy. They should be well matured as footballers. And they got smashed by a team with no reason to put the foot down.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

General consensus is the best teams of this century are Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, Eagles, Brisbane, maybe Collingwood. Hawthorn, Eagles, Brisbane and Collingwood have all been in the bottom four. Geelong and Sydney haven't but do have some advantages the others don't.

Swans this century(after h&a):

2000 10th of 16
2001 7/16
2002 11/16
2003 4/16
2004 6/16
2005 3/16
2006 4/16
2007 7/16
2008 6/16
2009 12/16
2010 5/16
2011 7/17
2012 3/18
2013 4/18
2014 1/18
2015 4/18
2016 1/18
2017 6/18
2018 6/18
2019 15/18
2020 16/18
2021 6/18
2022 3/18
2023 8/18
2024 1/18

top 1: 3 x
top 4: 10x
top 8: 20x
missed finals: 5x
bottom 4: 2x

A huge help to their rebuild after 2019-20 was all the top draft picks through the academy....Heeney, Mills, Blakey, Gulden, Campbell + Wicks.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I get some of your draftees were unavailable.

But were you happy with Dow playing a full game and McIntosh attending centre bounces while McAuliffe spent most of the night on the bench? Or that Trainor was left on the bench?

The selection is one part but the performance is another. Richmond had a team full of 21+ year olds in their 4th+ season of footy. They should be well matured as footballers. And they got smashed by a team with no reason to put the foot down.

The only reason for Dow & McIntosh getting a go ahead of McAuliffe is they are managing McAuliffe. He had some interruptions to his pre-season and is still building a tank.

We have some mature guys on our list who are not up to playing AFL inside mid, it is no shock. They will be used at times to allow the more talented youngsters to be managed. There is no rush for those young guys.

The only guys who debuted by 2022 who are proven not up to their roles are:

Dow, McIntosh(playing inside mid) Ryan, and a few like Miller & Sonsie who have to lift a bit.

By the time Richmond adds 3 x top 5 picks + probably another 3 ready made mature players over the next 2 off seasons most of these guys will be gone, replaced by highly talented youngsters or better mature depth.

 

[Rich01]

I get some of your draftees were unavailable.

But were you happy with Dow playing a full game and McIntosh attending centre bounces while McAuliffe spent most of the night on the bench? Or that Trainor was left on the bench?

Seems you watched and paid more attention to the nuance's of the game than I did.

Can’t say I have that sort of commitment watching any other team play these match sims.

You’re more than welcome over to the Richmond board on game day to discuss our game based on your above critique.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Seems you watched and paid more attention to the nuance's of the game than I did.

Can’t say I have that sort of commitment watching any other team play these match sims.

You’re more than welcome over to the Richmond board on game day to discuss our game based on your above critique.

I actually didn't see any of it. The AFL app lists time on ground per quarter and centre bounce attendances. It was all youngsters on the bench for the first half.

I've got no idea how they played. Maybe Dow is going to break out as a winger? Or McIntosh is going to play as a centre square mid? It looks like he found a fair bit of ball.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The club had 13 players unavailable, 31 available.

Of the available players one is a pick 58 who only just turned 18.

3 were 1st or 2nd year key forwards. The 2nd year guy barely played any footy in his first year.

1 is a project ruck.

The youngsters are all wisely being managed carefully.

So you are down to just 26 options that would have any chance of competing.

So of course most mature depth guys are going to play.

The only senior listed players who played in the VFL team & not last night were Koschitzke, Smith, Alger, Hayes-Brown, Gray.

Of course it will help when Lynch, Prestia, Ralphsmith, Balta Smillie, Lalor, Gibcus,, Lefau, Clarke, Hotton, Faull, Young, Colina are available.

In terms of the rebuild, our top 5 draft picks of the last 4 years were not available, 1 Lalor, 7 Smillie, 9 Gibcus, 12 Hotton, 14 Faull. The next 2 in draft pick order 17 Brown & 21 Trainor played and looked good. 29 Banks was also ok. The 18yo key forwards 23 Armstrong & 28 Sims understandably struggled but it is too early for them to be playing at this level.

All of the bolded are proven guns...

 

[Purple Suit]

I'd say trying not to bottom out has a fairly good record. How many times have the best teams over the last 20 years actually been in the bottom 4?

So all of them besides Geelong.

Brisbane had a prolonged bottom out period. Pies very quick. Sydney very quick. Melbourne and Richmond very long, Hawks & WC were quick before their flags but that is not the case for the next tilt. Bulldogs was a decent length of time before 2016 but far from the worst.

It appears that you need to be bad to get good in the AFL unless you have some sort of cap/s rort going.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

and how many teams have won a flag from gutting their list this much and playing so many young kids? Melbourne maybe, but even then Roos realised the team was too young and brought in Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince to set training standards and protect the kids a bit.

Melbourne and Brisbane for starters.

The Dees were roundly criticised for cutting too deep and not keeping the likes of McDonald, Moloney, Rivers, Maclean, Martin etc all at once.

The Lions were a basket case - 17 wins in 88 games across 4 seasons 2015-2018, with home state advantage in 40 of those games.

 

[Rich01]

I actually didn't see any of it. The AFL app lists time on ground per quarter and centre bounce attendances. It was all youngsters on the bench for the first half.

I've got no idea how they played. Maybe Dow is going to break out as a winger? Or McIntosh is going to play as a centre square mid? It looks like he found a fair bit of ball.

Fair. Stats can tell part of a story I suppose. The eye is a much better judge IMO. Thanks for clarifying and delving into each of those players stats quarter by quarter. Might use it next time I watch one of our games.

To answer your question, I’m not too sure but I’d say the younger players you mentioned in Macauliffe and Trainor have come back from injury so would have been on restricted minutes to prevent recurrence. They probably gave Dow a full game because he’s had an uninterrupted run over the pre season and want to see what he’s got.

 

[RUNVS]

Melbourne and Brisbane for starters.

The Dees were roundly criticised for cutting too deep and not keeping the likes of McDonald, Moloney, Rivers, Maclean, Martin etc all at once.

The Lions were a basket case - 17 wins in 88 games across 4 seasons 2015-2018, with home state advantage in 40 of those games.

I think Richmond will be wishing for 17 wins in 88 games.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think Richmond will be wishing for 17 wins in 88 games.

You wishing we will be wishing for something does not mean we'll be wishing for it.

You are talking about the club who proudly holds the longest streaks not occupying 17th or 18th on the ladder here RUN my man.

 

[RUNVS]

You wishing we will be wishing for something does not mean we'll be wishing for it.

You are talking about the club who proudly holds the longest streaks not occupying 17th or 18th on the ladder here RUN my man.

Well you are going to be 17th or 18th for at least 2025 and 2026, probably 2027 too.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Well you are going to be 17th or 18th for at least 2025 and 2026, probably 2027 too.

Doesn't alter us holding the best streaks in history right here right now brother RUN.

Most of our list build is done already in case you didn't notice. 2025 & 26 will be used to finish it off, complete with 3-4 experienced honchos from other clubs. Before you know it we'll be good and BF will be making up reasons why we are not actually as good as we are, all over again RUNmeister.