Club Focus North Melbourne 2024

[Ticky009]

Spreadsheet created by Lore and Taylor, using data from footywire and AFL Tables. Version above maintained by giantroo.

Spoiler: footywire version

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[Wild Bill]

We keep hearing from north fans that North rated M Whitlock higher than other teams (15th best player) and therefore he actually IS the 15th best player, and it's this metric of norths that its that matters in evaluating the deal as it stands today.

This is nonsense.

Surely their is only one version of the truth, and that's he is rated today much much later. Consider:-

• No club wanted him until pick 27.
• He was rated behind his brother who was taken at pick 33.
• The general consensus pre-draft was he wasn't rated until the late 20s to late 30s.

lol is this a real post?? You do know North can rate him different to other clubs?? "general consensus" - this is how clubs should draft players? Maybe recruiters should follow big footy to see what the general consensus is and pick players that way? No need to have their own draft rankings.

Faull was rated in the 20's yet the Tigers took him at 14 - is the sky now falling at Tiger land?

Poster that have never worked or stepped foot inside of a football club become draft experts this time of year. It really is amusing.

 

[Makeshift Park]

While this is true, beema has a point that the value of the pick can be more fairly evaluated, whether it was a reach or a slide. Considering Jack was rated higher by pretty much everyone, I do think North could have got Matt a bit later.

All month we've been hearing how there's many teams wanting to use their future firsts to get into this unusually deep draft.

How many managed to do it? Just one.

North.

Meanwhile, RookieMe had Matt Whitlock's draft range as 15-30.

Twomey had him at 24.

We got him at 27.

Definitely not a reach from that perspective.

The unknowns are:

• where North finish next year (impacting actual value of F1)
• where Richmond finish next year (impacting actual value of F2)
• how good Whitlock will be

It was definitely a controversial move, but the decision could yet be vindicated depending on what happens next year. If Richmond finish last, and North finish 12th, it'll appear prescient.

In any case, our list balance is so much better for it, and its exciting to finally see North's football department back themselves in to start moving up the ladder.

 

[Wild Bill]

While this is true, beema has a point that the value of the pick can be more fairly evaluated, whether it was a reach or a slide. Considering Jack was rated higher by pretty much everyone, I do think North could have got Matt a bit later.

It wasn't like Jack was rated top 10 and Matt a 4th rounder.

Cal had one at 19 and the other 23. It was marginal. It was so slight the deciding factor could have been that Matt played both as a key forward and key back this year. We needed both a key back and key forward so why not take the swingman?

But we should check with the Tiger posters - to see what the general consensus was. Maybe Brady will reach out to them in 2025.

 

[beema limapep]

That makes no sense at all.

You can't evaluate a trade based on pre-draft consensus.

The pre-draft consensus was the Chad Warner was a relatively one-paced player with a suspect kick.

Is that how you evaluate whether it was worth the Swans paying pick 39 for him?

The only metric that matters is whether Matt Whitlock becomes a player worth the pick paid for him. We won't know that for years.

The only metric which matters right now is the most accurate one based on general consensus. That is, where he was taken and where he was rated predraft. That is the current reality. That may change.

What North believe he is worth right now in terms of pick 15 is anti consensus and at odds with every other club and expert.

How he plays in the future is an entirely different conversation and until it happens is irrelevant to things as they currently stand.

 

[Sphynx]

Fremantle and GWS both passed on our F1 straight up for their picks (only 1 of the GWS ones) in the teens.

I can't believe either tbh. Fremantle especially. Murphy Reid is a good prospect, but it would have been easy to sacrifice given Young, Serong, Brayshaw, Bolton etc.

They turned a similar deal into Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

last year, they could have repeated it.

We would have likely just picked Whitlock anyway, so they saved us from ourselves in a way.

 

[Wild Bill]

The only metric which matters right now is the most accurate one based on general consensus. That is, where he was taken and where he was rated predraft. That is the current reality. That may change.

What North believe he is worth right now in terms of pick 15 is anti consensus and at odds with every other club and expert.

How he plays in the future is an entirely different conversation and until it happens is irrelevant to things as they currently stand.

Jonty Faull - general consensus - pick in the 20's?

You must be upset the Tigers didn't follow the "general consensus" rule.

 

[beema limapep]

lol is this a real post?? You do know North can rate him different to other clubs?? "general consensus" - this is how clubs should draft players? Maybe recruiters should follow big footy to see what the general consensus is and pick players that way? No need to have their own draft rankings.

Faull was rated in the 20's yet the Tigers took him at 14 - is the sky now falling at Tiger land?

Poster that have never worked or stepped foot inside of a football club become draft experts this time of year. It really is amusing.

North can rate him where they like, doesn't mean it's accurate. I'll go with the consensus.

Faull I actually agree with your point but it's a much lower cost and contextually it doesnt hinge on anything.

 

[Makeshift Park]

The only metric which matters right now is the most accurate one based on general consensus. That is, where he was taken and where he was rated predraft. That is the current reality. That may change.

What North believe he is worth right now in terms of pick 15 is anti consensus and at odds with every other club and expert.

How he plays in the future is an entirely different conversation and until it happens is irrelevant to things as they currently stand.

While this might matter in the contorted workings of your eccentric mind, when it comes to the core business of using the draft to successfully draft the most amount of players you like best in the available pool, what you are describing doesn't actually matter.

 

[beema limapep]

While this might matter in the contorted workings of your eccentric mind, when it comes to the core business of using the draft to successfully draft the most amount of players you like best in the available pool, what you are describing doesn't actually matter.

So extending the North logic then, if a club rates a 30yo division 4 ammo player at pick 1 and takes them, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that's all that matters. Got ya.

 

[Makeshift Park]

So extending the North logic then, if a club rates a 30yo division 4 ammo player at pick 1 and takes them, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that's all that matters. Got ya.

That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying the original post of yours I was responding to was a series of non sequiturs.

What matters is whether the players end up justifying the pick paid, and whether the trade achieved North's draft goals.

North had three meaningful assets to trade with. Pick 2, F1, and F2.

Taking FOS - the most talented player in the draft on proven form - was the right call.

But North had specified they wanted a KPP and so they had F1 and F2 to work with.

Could we have gotten better value, in terms of the predraft consensus, trading F2 to get Dodson? Maybe! But North didn't rate him as a prospect, so the consensus is irrelevant.

ESPN says North rated Matt Whitlock in the top 10. The Hun reckons we rated him top 15.

In either case we wouldn't have been able to get him (or his brother) using our F2. So there's no point comparing what we paid against non-existent alternatives.

So North achieved their objective but whether its ultimately worth it remains to be seen.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

We overpaid for Daniel which means we overpaid for Whitlock, sure. It's a surface level fail, I've got no problem with acknowledging that. We've injected a huge amount of young top end talent into the team so clearly this is the one where they went to draw the line in the sand and just get the types in that are needed to help move up the ladder instead of worrying about what November 2025 looks like. If we suck, there's a couple of good F2's to trade back with, we can also future trade and salary cap trade from next year. If we don't suck then the tide is turning and we need to be more specific with drafting and trading anyway. Five years of worrying about how low our future draft pick is for me is too long.

 

[LB2Snake]

Well, as it turns out...

hmmmmm......I think whilst losing my mind on the night, I'm reasonably comfortable with it now.

If we didn't have your F2, then it's diabolical.

That's not to say I'm not as toey as roman sandal on Whitlock becoming a good player.

 

[LB2Snake]

Before the draft I heard there was an offer of a trade of pick 2 and future 1st for Richmond's pick 10 and 11 (end up being 12 and 14 I think).

Which would have been the better trade for North? The one before the draft or the pick 27 and F2 for Norths F1?

Though it is probably worth noting that Tauru was reportedly Norths target and he was gone before pick 12 and 14).

I've got a weird feeling FOS might go all right.......so that trade no good. Hindsight wonderful thing though, but I still go with what we've done.

 

[shintemaster]

The only metric which matters right now is the most accurate one based on general consensus. That is, where he was taken and where he was rated predraft. That is the current reality. That may change.

What North believe he is worth right now in terms of pick 15 is anti consensus and at odds with every other club and expert.

How he plays in the future is an entirely different conversation and until it happens is irrelevant to things as they currently stand.

No. That was the only metric that mattered when he was picked. Now it is irrelevant, as draft position is for every pick. From here on in the only metric is performance over a career.

 

[Donakebab]

That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying the original post of yours I was responding to was a series of non sequiturs.

What matters is whether the players end up justifying the pick paid, and whether the trade achieved North's draft goals.

North had three meaningful assets to trade with. Pick 2, F1, and F2.

Taking FOS - the most talented player in the draft on proven form - was the right call.

But North had specified they wanted a KPP and so they had F1 and F2 to work with.

Could we have gotten better value, in terms of the predraft consensus, trading F2 to get Dodson? Maybe! But North didn't rate him as a prospect, so the consensus is irrelevant.

ESPN says North rated Matt Whitlock in the top 10. The Hun reckons we rated him top 15.

In either case we wouldn't have been able to get him (or his brother) using our F2. So there's no point comparing what we paid against non-existent alternatives.

So North achieved their objective but whether its ultimately worth it remains to be seen.

Quoting an ESPN article that gave North's draft a F rating.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

All month we've been hearing how there's many teams wanting to use their future firsts to get into this unusually deep draft.

How many managed to do it? Just one.

North.

Hey, if you're comfortable with the price you paid, then I'm glad for you. Many other North fans weren't though.

Meanwhile, RookieMe had Matt Whitlock's draft range as 15-30.

That's a very wide range, and they had Shanahan and Jack higher on their power rankings. I still think North could have got him later.

Twomey had him at 24.

Twomey's phantom is based on intel from teams, he isn't the world's greatest talent evaluator or anything.

We got him at 27.

Definitely not a reach from that perspective.

Not as huge a reach as Faull to be sure, but still a mild reach.

The unknowns are:

• where North finish next year (impacting actual value of F1)
• where Richmond finish next year (impacting actual value of F2)
• how good Whitlock will be

It was definitely a controversial move, but the decision could yet be vindicated depending on what happens next year. If Richmond finish last, and North finish 12th, it'll appear prescient.

In any case, our list balance is so much better for it, and its exciting to finally see North's football department back themselves in to start moving up the ladder.

Yes, and, I think your list balance would be even better if you'd not traded for Daniel and used that pick on Matt instead.

 

[THE_GUN]

I personally dont think there is a lot wrong with this trade provided Matt W becomes a good player

F1 was never going to get a pick inside #15 and #23 +F2 is a good deal for both teams in this draft
But i would be thinking that if North had offered #2 +F1 for #6 + #20 in trade week this might have been done

For Richmond we will finish last and have #1 and if by luck the North F1 is a top 5 pick then thats a great result for Richmond and enables us to get 2 more top rated mids like Sharp & Rodriguez to add to Lalor , Hotton , Smillie

 

[branedotorg]

I didn't mid the pick trade, suspect they overpaid but NM drafted for needs and a year of development.

 

[Kangas_11]

But i would be thinking that if North had offered #2 +F1 for #6 + #20 in trade week this might have been done

Not defending the trade at all, but our net result for #2 + F1 was FOS + M. Whitlock + Richmond's R2.

Considering we rated Whitlock top 15, your trade here would've left us with Smillie + M. Whitlock, which is a much worse outcome.

 

[beema limapep]

No. That was the only metric that mattered when he was picked. Now it is irrelevant, as draft position is for every pick. From here on in the only metric is performance over a career.

No, the metric when he was picked remains relevant unless performance proves otherwise. You don't get to bury the issue that it's a horrendous trade as it stands, and we will all hold North accountable if their fans won't.

 

[Sphynx]

No, the metric when he was picked remains relevant unless performance proves otherwise. You don't get to bury the issue that it's a horrendous trade as it stands, and we will all hold North accountable if their fans won't.

Which is fine, but if we hit the ground running and Whitlock develops into a star will you be back in here with equal vigor?

I think we will get a big jump in wins next season, how many, I don't know. We have a lot of ground to make up.

What I do know is LDU is a star, Wardlaw is in his third pre-season, Sheezel is probably an AA caliber starting midfielder in 2025 onwards and McKercher is not a normal second year player in any way shape or form, who looks set to be given the keys to the city to play forward of center and kick goals like he did in juniors.

If that group of 4 (Including an AA key forward, a AA contention ruckman etc) can't start propelling us up the ladder quickly, ontop of all the other talent we have, we have problems.

We have more potential weapons than most top 8 sides and we have about 15 highly rated kids about to hit the point of their development when they morph simultaneously into senior bodies.

You won't get a better indication than Rnd 1. The Dogs and Bont are our bogey side. Will say a lot.

 

[Goatie]

The thing that makes the North F1 trade terrible is if they didn’t trade pick 25 for Caleb Daniel

35

Caleb Daniel

Age

28

Ht

171cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

19.5

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.4

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

CL

1.0

3star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

they would have been two picks away from Matt Whitlock. They could have traded their F2 for Richmond’s F3 to move up 2 spots.
I guess that’s what happens when Clarko is under pressure and you have so many compo picks that they tend to lose their value. I believe North will improve but still be bottom 5.