Opinion Non-Crows AFL 11: Footy's Back At Last

[Cleric]

The AFL doesn't need a slightly larger roofed stadium in Hobart for Tasmania to be a success. It's a deliberate hurdle.

Not really. They want to maximise the chances of the Tassie team being a success, both on field and off.
One of those things is selling out the stadium every week.
It's colder and just as wet in Hobart as it is in Melbourne, so they don't want a half full Bell with player slipping around in the mud.
A roofed stadium will sell out every week, will attract visitors from interstate, and look really good on TV.
On top of that, it will be able to put on all weather events and concerts that wouldn't be available without the roof.

 

[spenze]

I'm not a Tasmaniac, but... Wikipedia says Bellerive holds 20K, slightly less than the 21K that York Park can hold.

As for the rest of your question (ease of boosting capacity), I have NFI.

It appears the AFL's demand for a roofed stadium on the Macquarie Point location is non-negotiable. They will not accept an upgraded Bellerive Oval as an alternative.

I know it is pointless but, if Belrieve holds 20 in its current capacity then there is easy scope to build a stadium on the one side that doesn't have it to get it to between 25-28. I'm not so sure about why it needs to be a closed stadium besides saying "look what we have" with the amount of complaints in the first decade for Marvel Stadium, you'd think they'd move past it.

Ok, so reading up on it, still has until next month for public submissions and then final report by September, not that I believe it will make a difference. You are correct though, does look like a non negotiable for the Tasmanians if they want a team, build that stadium.

 

[Vader]

Not really. They want to maximise the chances of the Tassie team being a success, both on field and off.
One of those things is selling out the stadium every week.
It's colder and just as wet in Hobart as it is in Melbourne, so they don't want a half full Bell with player slipping around in the mud.
A roofed stadium will sell out every week, will attract visitors from interstate, and look really good on TV.
On top of that, it will be able to put on all weather events and concerts that wouldn't be available without the roof.

Selling it out every week is a tall order. The Greater Hobart Area has a population of ~250K, so filling a 25K stadium would require 10% of Hobart's population to attend the football there every week. I'm not sure that's achievable or realistic.

 

[Scorpus]

Not really. They want to maximise the chances of the Tassie team being a success, both on field and off.
One of those things is selling out the stadium every week.
It's colder and just as wet in Hobart as it is in Melbourne, so they don't want a half full Bell with player slipping around in the mud.
A roofed stadium will sell out every week, will attract visitors from interstate, and look really good on TV.
On top of that, it will be able to put on all weather events and concerts that wouldn't be available without the roof.

Most of that stuff is just nice to have, or is actually irrelevant to the AFL like hosting all weather events and concerts

I have zero doubt that Tasmania would sell out an upgraded stadium every week and be a huge success. The roofed stadium would be better, but would have little impact on their success.

It's designed to be a hurdle that's difficult to overcome and it's proving to be that way. Any sensible league would allow Tasmania anyway if the stadium falls through, but I suspect the AFL will pull the plug instead.

 

[Vader]

I know it is pointless but, if Belrieve holds 20 in its current capacity then there is easy scope to build a stadium on the one side that doesn't have it to get it to between 25-28. I'm not so sure about why it needs to be a closed stadium besides saying "look what we have" with the amount of complaints in the first decade for Marvel Stadium, you'd think they'd move past it.

Ok, so reading up on it, still has until next month for public submissions and then final report by September, not that I believe it will make a difference. You are correct though, does look like a non negotiable for the Tasmanians if they want a team, build that stadium.

It's the AFL which is demanding the roofed stadium in the city - not the Tassie Govt.

The design artwork we've seen so far suggests a glass or plexiglass roof, allowing natural sunlight in. This is very different to the situation at Docklands, where it's either harsh shadows (roof open) or artificial lights (roof closed).

I'm not sure why Tasmania needs a 25-28K stadium at all, given the size & distribution of the island's population.

 

[Mutineer]

Selling it out every week is a tall order. The Greater Hobart Area has a population of ~250K, so filling a 25K stadium would require 10% of Hobart's population to attend the football there every week. I'm not sure that's achievable or realistic.

You think the Tassie people in a very AFL football state wouldn't travel from outside the greater Hobart area, I think they'd travel plenty to watch their own team. They got 14,000 to the game between the Hawks and the Giants last week

 

[Scorpus]

Selling it out every week is a tall order. The Greater Hobart Area has a population of ~250K, so filling a 25K stadium would require 10% of Hobart's population to attend the football there every week. I'm not sure that's achievable or realistic.

Geelong averaged around 20-25k to Kardinia Park, basically its capacity, since the 80s. Of course that would be boosted a bit by travellers from Melbourne.

I think Tassie could easily average 20k+ with their own team out of Hobart. A few years back they were getting 15k at North games

 

[StickerMan]

This is where I see things getting ugly with the power struggle between Ken and Carr.

in-fighting on who is in charge, players don't know who is coach, sides are taken, tears are shed, power fans are baying for blood...

It's going to biblical.

Things turning out nicely... Now add the rumours of Butters & Bergman being traded out this is on track to be amazing.

Port have painted themselves into a corner and Port fans look like they have exchanged their bathwater drinking for eating each other.

On top of that, Crows looking like we are on the way up with a well-built list for sustained finals appearances, and Port forecast for a rebuild and some years of pain.

No amount of Kochie spin will get them out of this pickle.

 

[Cromulant]

You think the Tassie people in a very AFL football state wouldn't travel from outside the greater Hobart area, I think they'd travel plenty to watch their own team. They got 14,000 to the game between the Hawks and the Giants last week

Initially they will you'd think, but Tasmania is notoriously fickle when it comes to North vs South

 

[Cleric]

Selling it out every week is a tall order. The Greater Hobart Area has a population of ~250K, so filling a 25K stadium would require 10% of Hobart's population to attend the football there every week. I'm not sure that's achievable or realistic.

I think you underestimate them.
They have had nearly 20k to a domestic Big Bash game, and have got 20k to AFL games with Hawthorn as the home team in Launceston, which has less than half the population of Hobart.
On top of that there will be alot of interest from interstate supporters to go down and watch the game in the new undercover stadium.
It will be the hottest ticket in Tasmania.

 

[beartoo]

Very much this. When I lived in Hobart mid-80s they loathed each other. I doubt much has changed.

On SM-A256E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Cleric]

Most of that stuff is just nice to have, or is actually irrelevant to the AFL like hosting all weather events and concerts

I have zero doubt that Tasmania would sell out an upgraded stadium every week and be a huge success. The roofed stadium would be better, but would have little impact on their success.

It's designed to be a hurdle that's difficult to overcome and it's proving to be that way. Any sensible league would allow Tasmania anyway if the stadium falls through, but I suspect the AFL will pull the plug instead.

One of the reasons the AFL wanted a roof was to guarantee the financial viability of the stadium, which includes it hosting concerts and events outside the AFL.
While the AFL don't get anything out of them, it's in their best interests to have the stadium they are helping to fund to be a viable concern.
The AFL also cares about the supporters experience and comfort, as they rely of paying customers to help pay for the team.
It's without doubt better to have the roof than not have it. So, if that's the Gold standard that makes it better, do it.

Once it's built, it will only be a positive
I would go down to watch a game in the new roofed stadium, but I certainly won't go down to sit at Bell in the rain and wind.

 

[Vader]

You think the Tassie people in a very AFL football state wouldn't travel from outside the greater Hobart area, I think they'd travel plenty to watch their own team. They got 14,000 to the game between the Hawks and the Giants last week

I think there's a big difference between drawing 14K 4-5x per season and 28K 11-12x per season.

We're not talking about a state with a huge population, and a large part of the population is on the north coast - meaning that they are too far away to attend matches regularly.

Adelaide has a population of ~1.4M, with an average attendance at Port & Adelaide games of ~40K. That's roughly 3% of Adelaide's population attending the footy each week. Why then, do you think that 10% of Hobart's population would go to the footy each week? Why are Taswegians 3x more likely to attend football matches than their South Australian counterparts?

 

[Mutineer]

I think there's a big difference between drawing 14K 4-5x per season and 28K 11-12x per season.

We're not talking about a state with a huge population, and a large part of the population is on the north coast - meaning that they are too far away to attend matches regularly.

Not with a team that will no doubt go after the best Tassie talent on current AFL lists and have access to the best Tassie talent through an Academy set up with home grown talent into the future.

 

[GROTTO]

Stolen Fun Facts with Grotto

According to Champion Data the Number 1 highest ranked player in the competition since R21 is Riley Thilthorpe.

 

[Vader]

I think you underestimate them.
They have had nearly 20k to a domestic Big Bash game, and have got 20k to AFL games with Hawthorn as the home team in Launceston, which has less than half the population of Hobart.
On top of that there will be alot of interest from interstate supporters to go down and watch the game in the new undercover stadium.
It will be the hottest ticket in Tasmania.

There will definitely be a honeymoon period, where they get increased numbers. But once it becomes a normal pattern of life the numbers will fall away.

Back in the early 1990s every Crows game sold out within 48 hours of going on sale. The Crows were the hottest ticket in town, and everyone wanted to see them live. Now there are routinely 5-10K empty seats. The question isn't how many bums on seats they get when the team enters the AFL in 2028 (or 2029), it's how many they're still getting in 2035 and beyond.

One-off and irregularly scheduled events will always attract more viewers than regular games, which are on every week. That's human nature. As for the BBL - that's held in the warmth of summer, while many people are on holiday. It's really not comparable to games played in mid-winter (even in an indoor stadium), outside of school holidays.

A more realistic outcome, in the long term (i.e. beyond the initial honeymoon period) would be 15-18K attendees per week. Even this would mean that Taswegians are far more dedicated to their football than SA supporters.

 

[Vader]

Not with a team that will no doubt go after the best Tassie talent on current AFL lists and have access to the best Tassie talent through an Academy set up with home grown talent into the future.

25-28K just isn't sustainable on a long-term basis, for a City with Hobart's population.

Yes, they'll probably get that during the honeymoon period in the first 1-2 years, but after that I would expect it to drop away, with 15-18K being a sustainable long-term target.

 

[spenze]

Plus crowds will be halved when their sisters are ovulating

 

[Vader]

Plus crowds will be halved when their sisters are ovulating

If a Tasmanian divorces his wife, is she still legally his sister?

 

[Vader]

Ahh... it all makes sense now!

They're talking about the number of heads attending the game, not the number of people. 25-28K heads is approximately 18K people (assuming a reasonable number of non-Tas born attendees). Now the numbers begin to add up...

 

[Scorpus]

Adelaide has a population of ~1.4M, with an average attendance at Port & Adelaide games of ~40K. That's roughly 3% of Adelaide's population attending the footy each week. Why then, do you think that 10% of Hobart's population would go to the footy each week? Why are Taswegians 3x more likely to attend football matches than their South Australian counterparts?

While 40k attend each week that's split across two supporter bases that alternate weekly. Realistically it's more like 6% of the population.

In Victoria in 2024 they got 4.1 million to 90 games in Melbourne. Nine teams averaging 10 home games, bit of cross-mixing as fans attend away games in Melbourne, probably a similar percentage.

20k weekly seems reasonable to me, especially if they get people from across Tasmania attending plus travelling away team fans

 

[cleanhands]

C'mon man, look at who you are quoting, as clueless as they come.

 

[Vader]

While 40k attend each week that's split across two supporter bases that alternate weekly. Realistically it's more like 6% of the population.

In Victoria in 2024 they got 4.1 million to 90 games in Melbourne. Nine teams averaging 10 home games, bit of cross-mixing as fans attend away games in Melbourne, probably a similar percentage.

20k weekly seems reasonable to me, especially if they get people from across Tasmania attending plus travelling away team fans

I guess time will be the ultimate determinant here... but I just don't see 10% of Hobart's population turning up to the footy on a weekly basis.

 

[Scorpus]

I guess time will be the ultimate determinant here... but I just don't see 10% of Hobart's population turning up to the footy on a weekly basis.

10% definitely won't show up if they are shit for decades. If they can become a powerhouse like Geelong it's possible.

 

[Peter Doherty]

Ahh... it all makes sense now!

They're talking about the number of heads attending the game, not the number of people. 25-28K heads is approximately 18K people (assuming a reasonable number of non-Tas born attendees). Now the numbers begin to add up...

It's this sort of ignorant bullshit that annoys me, educate yourself you &$^@%*!!

Everyone knows these days the 2nd head is removed at birth.