The Uncanny Similarity in Trajectory Between Crows and Hawks (since 2019)

[John Who]

I was looking at the recent years of ladder positions for the Crows, and have noticed a striking pattern between us and the Hawks. The focus here are the completed seasons between 2019-2024.

2019
Hawks 9th, 11W 108.7%
Crows 11th, 10W 100.9%

2020
Hawks 15th, 5W 84.1%
Crows 18th, 3W 64.4%

2021
Hawks 14th, 7W 2D 85.2%
Crows 15th, 7W 82.0

2022
Hawks 13th, 8W 89.8%
Crows 14th, 8W 86.7%

2023
Crows 10th, 11W 116.8%
Hawks 16th, 7W 80.2%

2024
Hawks 7th, 14W 118.5%
Crows 15th, 8W 1D 99.1%

——————————

General observations:
- in 2019, both teams look to still be contending for a Finals spot, but not quite making it.

- in 2020-2022, both dipped significantly in wins and percentages, and signifying an era of rebuild for both clubs; both had slight improved win counts with each passing year, although not looking overly impressive.

- in 2023, Crows were clearly the more improved side with a crazy jump in score percentage compared with 2022 (40% better); Hawks on the other hand, appeared to have stagnated/regressed, and landing back in the bottom-four by season’s end.

- in 2024, the script between the 2 clubs had literally and figuratively flipped around! Crows on the stagnation/regress, back to the bottom-four spot, while the Hawks making the most of their huge percentage rise (38% increase) and win counts to make the Finals and performing admirably.

In 2025, as of round 4, the similar trajectory is back on track between the clubs! This is by no means an observation to conclude either are guaranteed to make the Finals this year, but so far the percentages appear to indicate further improvements for both teams.

Is it a fair summation to think both clubs are trending upwards since 2020, and 2023 and 2024 were the anomalies for Hawks and Crows, respectively?

 

[pjcrows]

Hawks have coaches to get them to the next level. We don't.

 

[adelaidecrows]

I was looking at the recent years of ladder positions for the Crows, and have noticed a striking pattern between us and the Hawks. The focus here are the completed seasons between 2019-2024.

2019
Hawks 9th, 11W 108.7%
Crows 11th, 10W 100.9%

2020
Hawks 15th, 5W 84.1%
Crows 18th, 3W 64.4%

2021
Hawks 14th, 7W 2D 85.2%
Crows 15th, 7W 82.0

2022
Hawks 13th, 8W 89.8%
Crows 14th, 8W 86.7%

2023
Crows 10th, 11W 116.8%
Hawks 16th, 7W 80.2%

2024
Hawks 7th, 14W 118.5%
Crows 15th, 8W 1D 99.1%

——————————

General observations:
- in 2019, both teams look to still be contending for a Finals spot, but not quite making it.

- in 2020-2022, both dipped significantly in wins and percentages, and signifying an era of rebuild for both clubs; both had slight improved win counts with each passing year, although not looking overly impressive.

- in 2023, Crows were clearly the more improved side with a crazy jump in score percentage compared with 2022 (40% better); Hawks on the other hand, appeared to have stagnated/regressed, and landing back in the bottom-four by season’s end.

- in 2024, the script between the 2 clubs had literally and figuratively flipped around! Crows on the stagnation/regress, back to the bottom-four spot, while the Hawks making the most of their huge percentage rise (38% increase) and win counts to make the Finals and performing admirably.

In 2025, as of round 4, the similar trajectory is back on track between the clubs! This is by no means an observation to conclude either are guaranteed to make the Finals this year, but so far the percentages appear to indicate further improvements for both teams.

Is it a fair summation to think both clubs are trending upwards since 2020, and 2023 and 2024 were the anomalies for Hawks and Crows, respectively?

It is interesting, but really its a reflection of a massive injection of talent and turnover of deadwood. We just hit the rebuild at the same time. North are probably 2 years behind us, Richmond look to be peak 2021 Crows and West Coast are probably somewhere around the same space as North.

 

[John Who]

Hawks have coaches to get them to the next level. We don't.

This is a matter of opinion. If you can believe the trajectory is similar for both sides, and the player quality is roughly similar, then that would roughly mean the coaching quality is similar also, wouldn’t it?

I honestly think we can only judge the Crows by midseason, after playing a few serious contenders. And this season is good a season as any to be able to judge how quality Nicks coaching has progressed.

 

[Pugsley]

Not worth comparing.

 

[pjcrows]

This is a matter of opinion.

My opinion is that Hawthorn have elite coaches that will take them to the next level and we do not, yes.

 

[George CantStandYa]

This is a matter of opinion. If you can believe the trajectory is similar for both sides, and the player quality is roughly similar, then that would roughly mean the coaching quality is similar also, wouldn’t it?

I honestly think we can only judge the Crows by midseason, after playing a few serious contenders. And this season is good a season as any to be able to judge how quality Nicks coaching has progressed.

You’ve seen we’ve selected Murphy right?

One coach is lauded in the comp, one isn’t

 

[GreyCrow]

What do you think are the key reasons - apart from coaching - that has given both sides similar rises?

Is it turnover scores or contested ball numbers?

Is it Hit outs to advantage ?

What parameters are you judging this on? Or is it just the vibe?

 

[FR0GGY]

Reckon we’ve got way more high draft picks (talent) on the list

 

[John Who]

What do you think are the key reasons - apart from coaching - that has given both sides similar rises?

Is it turnover scores or contested ball numbers?

Is it Hit outs to advantage ?

What parameters are you judging this on? Or is it just the vibe?

I don’t know all the how’s and why’s. All I can see is a very striking pattern that’s not something to ignore.

Another observation this year is that both the Hawks and Crows have undoubtedly improved, not just in ladder positions but also the consistency of their game in offense and defense.

 

[John Who]

My opinion is that Hawthorn have elite coaches that will take them to the next level and we do not, yes.

I think there’s a big logical fallacy going on in that coaches currently are all at their peak potential. If a team is showing improving results (eg. Hawks/Crows), it would also likely mean the coach is improving in the coaching arena.

While our opinions may differ on the coaches, our opinions matter less than the outcomes and trends. Currently, the Hawks and Crows are showing near identical outcomes.

 

[skam85]

You’ve seen we’ve selected Murphy right?

One coach is lauded in the comp, one isn’t

Nicks met with Lukosius
Mitchell met with Allen

Uncanny. UNCANNY!

 

[davos44]

I was looking at the recent years of ladder positions for the Crows, and have noticed a striking pattern between us and the Hawks. The focus here are the completed seasons between 2019-2024.

2019
Hawks 9th, 11W 108.7%
Crows 11th, 10W 100.9%

2020
Hawks 15th, 5W 84.1%
Crows 18th, 3W 64.4%

2021
Hawks 14th, 7W 2D 85.2%
Crows 15th, 7W 82.0

2022
Hawks 13th, 8W 89.8%
Crows 14th, 8W 86.7%

2023
Crows 10th, 11W 116.8%
Hawks 16th, 7W 80.2%

2024
Hawks 7th, 14W 118.5%
Crows 15th, 8W 1D 99.1%

——————————

General observations:
- in 2019, both teams look to still be contending for a Finals spot, but not quite making it.

- in 2020-2022, both dipped significantly in wins and percentages, and signifying an era of rebuild for both clubs; both had slight improved win counts with each passing year, although not looking overly impressive.

- in 2023, Crows were clearly the more improved side with a crazy jump in score percentage compared with 2022 (40% better); Hawks on the other hand, appeared to have stagnated/regressed, and landing back in the bottom-four by season’s end.

- in 2024, the script between the 2 clubs had literally and figuratively flipped around! Crows on the stagnation/regress, back to the bottom-four spot, while the Hawks making the most of their huge percentage rise (38% increase) and win counts to make the Finals and performing admirably.

In 2025, as of round 4, the similar trajectory is back on track between the clubs! This is by no means an observation to conclude either are guaranteed to make the Finals this year, but so far the percentages appear to indicate further improvements for both teams.

Is it a fair summation to think both clubs are trending upwards since 2020, and 2023 and 2024 were the anomalies for Hawks and Crows, respectively?

Its an interesting take, I think Hawks, Crows and North all entered rebuilds about the same time.

Hawthorn cut back deep the latest of the 3 the end of 2022 and drafted/recruited exceptionally well. They kept a good core of top line players and traded their B graders for draft currency. Top shelf rebuild, done by a genius of a coach and a club run by people dedicated to being at the forefront of the sport. Ahem looking at you Carlton, Ross Lyon wanted nothing to do with you!

We were in denial for 2020 and stalled until the end of 2021 before really cutting back, we drafted poorly/average but recruited well. Our core of experienced players were basically cooked and mentally scarred from a ridiculous camp where the captain of our club at the time did what he was told by these unqualified morons "I think I am better husband, son and father" (STFU Rory) and other senior players were labelled trouble makers and left.

North are a year behind and will be like us next year I feel. Their drafting has been average and recruiting has been poor until last year - Darling, Daniel and Parker are all experienced, professional AFL players, that was a good move for a young side. Their godawful coaching choices and lack of support held them up 2 years.

 

[pjcrows]

I think there’s a big logical fallacy going on in that coaches currently are all at their peak potential. If a team is showing improving results (eg. Hawks/Crows), it would also likely mean the coach is improving in the coaching arena.

While our opinions may differ on the coaches, our opinions matter less than the outcomes and trends. Currently, the Hawks and Crows are showing near identical outcomes.

We're 3-0 with an easy fixture and minimal injuries. Both of those circumstances have now changed - we'll see if we can finish in the 8 and be a kick away from a Prelim.

I doubt it, and a big factor - I suggest the most important factor - is coaching.