Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.
Thanks KM.

Are you of the opinion that Adelaide weren't seriously considering Jackson/Young at 4 anyway? (I do think Jackson would've been a good fit for us)
So essentially, may get the same player at 6 as they would have at 4, depending on Sydney obviously.
Think Flanders is the man who would've gone at 4 and will still be there at what will be pick 7 after Syd bid on green and then take Kemp.
 
KM my theory is GWS actually want the Dees to bid on Green here, and then they pass and take Jackson. Is that madness? Or a genuine win-win for both clubs? Have they given up too much to pass on Green and get a young ruck in?
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Thanks KM.

Are you of the opinion that Adelaide weren't seriously considering Jackson/Young at 4 anyway? (I do think Jackson would've been a good fit for us)
So essentially, may get the same player at 6 as they would have at 4, depending on Sydney obviously.

Flanders was the name I was hearing for Adelaide at 4. My feel now is Sydney take Flanders at 5 and then Adelaide may consider a McAsey among others at 6. So it may change Adelaide's plans slightly, but they're still getting someone good early and have a chance to add someone else worthwhile next year. Good talent ID permitting.

Can’t believe a grand final team are getting two top 5 picks!! It’s insanity!

Green could be the best in the draft. Lucky for the rest of the competition it's not in a position they're deficient in.
 
KM my theory is GWS actually want the Dees to bid on Green here, and then they pass and take Jackson. Is that madness? Or a genuine win-win for both clubs? Have they given up too much to pass on Green and get a young ruck in?

I call madness! :D

I've considered the theory, but if you look at GWS' side, they could use both Jackson and Young. They don't have a great long term ruck, and with Shaw and a number of their defenders aging they could really use Young also.

I think they'll happily take Green and the leftover of Jackson/Young.

Melbourne bidding on Green would mean GWS only get one which would be the losing scenario.

Any chance of a revised top 15 phantom in light of the Gws / Adelaide trade?

Final phantom coming next week but the major changes at this stage are:
GWS=Young
Syd=bid on Green then once matched taking Flanders
Adel=McAsey (I see Adelaide going into rebuild through the draft mode)
Then minor tweaks from there

Hawthorn with McAsey rising I'll need to figure out an updated first pick for. Assuming no notable slider, maybe Kemp, maybe Bergman or maybe Weightman.
 
I've seen you state a number of times over the years that your policy on drafting key forwards is 'early or not at all'. I'm wondering whether recent drafts have changed your point of view?

Esava Ratugolea, Nick Larkey and Mitchell Lewis were late picks and are among the competition's best few young key forwards; Ben Brown and Brodie Mihocek were picked out of the state leagues; Aaron Naughton was a key defender. Even guys like Noah Balta, Tom McCartin and Elliot Himmelberg appear to be key long-term players as later selections.

On the other hand you have a recurring theme of key forwards selected very early and not coming on as expected. Paddy McCartin, Josh Schache, Tom Boyd, Peter Wright; even Jon Patton and Joe Daniher (although injury is obviously a big factor there).

So, have you changed your tune at all? And do you see recent success picking key forwards later on influencing selections at this draft?
 
I've seen you state a number of times over the years that your policy on drafting key forwards is 'early or not at all'. I'm wondering whether recent drafts have changed your point of view?

Esava Ratugolea, Nick Larkey and Mitchell Lewis were late picks and are among the competition's best few young key forwards; Ben Brown and Brodie Mihocek were picked out of the state leagues; Aaron Naughton was a key defender. Even guys like Noah Balta, Tom McCartin and Elliot Himmelberg appear to be key long-term players as later selections.

On the other hand you have a recurring theme of key forwards selected very early and not coming on as expected. Paddy McCartin, Josh Schache, Tom Boyd, Peter Wright; even Jon Patton and Joe Daniher (although injury is obviously a big factor there).

So, have you changed your tune at all? And do you see recent success picking key forwards later on influencing selections at this draft?

I made a post on the Collingwood board in relation to this very point recently.

To save time 'My theory with key forwards for a good period of time was you need early picks to get good ones. And that idea of mine stems from my view that if you're going to be a key forward at the next level, you either need to be elite or near elite, or you're not suitable for selection as a key forward. And that largely plays into the idea of featuring early draft. By over the last 5-6 years that hasn't proven entirely accurate and as such methodology needs changing. Justin Westhoff, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Brody Mihocek, Josh Jenkins, Mason Cox, Esava Ratugolea, Matt Tabener, Nick Larkey, Mitchell Lewis. None of those guys were early selections.

My view through that learning has pivoted towards instead being about players I regard as first round quality, even if they're rated as later picks. Brown and Esava to name two of those I really liked and should have rated more highly, but due to their respective perceptions as later picks I didn't rate them as high as I should, subscribing too strongly to this original and really not completely correct notion.

If the club gamble on a key defender Bigoa Nyuon is the guy I'd gamble on in the national draft. Otherwise as a rookie I like Nick Murray (brother of Sam) as a key defender and while undersized I also rate Brodie Newman and feel he is also underappreciated with both in my view suitable for selection as rookies.

I'm not all that concerned about trading up this year. 35 and later I feel Collingwood can get some players and I'd prefer to maintain next year's first as I can see some chances Collingwood drop and that pick being more useful during next year's trade period.

If the 2020 first and pick 35 were offered you'd be lucky to get something like Port Adelaide's first would roughly the best I can see as plausible. Gold Coast if they can't move up otherwise may be willing to move pick 15 back and cash in on Collingwood's 2020 first. But from a points perspective, any trade to get into this draft takes away from that potential total draft position value. If Collnigwood get pick 12, Fischer McAsey or Brodie Kemp would be good gets and those better two who might be there.'



Naughton I obviously liked. Liked in his draft year and rated the best from the 2018 draft during this preseason before he surprised with his play up forward. Balta I rated I believe 5th in his draft year, so he's another although he was rated a fair bit later who I rated a lot higher than others dared.

McCartin I didn't rate, nor E.Himmelberg and I'm still to be convinced with the pair with McCartin barely able to kick a goal every second week while Himmelberg still has a long way to go in his development also.

Still very much a position about superiority of talent and I don't believe in taking anyone average, it's more for me transitioned towards being more about taking guys I regard as first round quality at the position, as if they're not best 20 in the draft quality, or top 25 in a strong year at worst, they're probably not going to be the quality of pieces worth building around. Where I've eased up is where in the draft they can come from. And the likes of Reece McKenzie who I flat out loved a few years back was a late choice, so I've had to adjust to being more open to that, but just being picky as to who I'd take, and I've got my own key position formula I've used for a number of years now to determine whether or not they're worthwhile and can be those top-20 players in a given draft.

Perhaps the next evolution for me will be looking more-so for key forwards who can transition to become key backs. Looking at those stronger marking, better readers of the ball in flight who have the athleticism and don't lose 1v1s.
 
Committal but a fascinating trading. Great value gained by Adelaide, moving down just two picks to gain a 2020 first is an incredible outcome!

GWS must strongly Melbourne won't bid on Green at 3, which would allow GWS to get the leftover of Jackson/Young at 4 and get either Ash or a Serong/Weightman at 8 depending on who they take at 4. Or that's how I'm seeing their plans now.
Maybe it is how your worded this sentence, but it appears that you are giving GWS pick 8, when it is Melbourne that holds it?
 
GWS may have wasted a first round pick for next season just to get in front of Sydney's pick 5 when there was no Gaurantee Sydney was even bidding on Green only a couple of years ago the media were big on Brisbane bidding on Bowes because he was from Queensland and he went at 10 there's a chance Green went after Sydney's pick 5 with GWS having a live pick at 6
 
I don’t know, GWS McCartney seems to have a good grasp.....but I can only hope they have become desperate.....Grand final hangover...🙃
If a bid for Tom Green comes at 5, GWS will have to make 1502 points but only have 733 in this draft. BEcuase they traded out their 2020 first they a) can't trade other future picks and b) can't have a deficit deducted from next year's first, as they don't have one. So... what happens?
 
I don’t know, GWS McCartney seems to have a good grasp.....but I can only hope they have become desperate.....Grand final hangover...🙃
If a bid for Tom Green comes at 5, GWS will have to make 1502 points but only have 733 in this draft. BEcuase they traded out their 2020 first they a) can't trade other future picks and b) can't have a deficit deducted from next year's first, as they don't have one. So... what happens?
It gets deducted from their first pick next season. Currently that is their second round pick.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

I call madness! :D

I've considered the theory, but if you look at GWS' side, they could use both Jackson and Young. They don't have a great long term ruck, and with Shaw and a number of their defenders aging they could really use Young also.

I think they'll happily take Green and the leftover of Jackson/Young.

Melbourne bidding on Green would mean GWS only get one which would be the losing scenario.
Ah but what if GWS have to choose between Green and Jackson?
 
KM AFC’s Justin Reid did an interview today and stated Stephens was, ‘certainly in the mix ‘ of three or fours guys at pick six.

Any reason why you’re hedging on McCasey over Stephens?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Last edited:
GWS may have wasted a first round pick for next season just to get in front of Sydney's pick 5 when there was no Gaurantee Sydney was even bidding on Green only a couple of years ago the media were big on Brisbane bidding on Bowes because he was from Queensland and he went at 10 there's a chance Green went after Sydney's pick 5 with GWS having a live pick at 6

It seems like a lot to spend, but for mine it's a good move by GWS.

Let's say Sydney bid on Green which is what is widely predicted.

What happens?
Green/Young (assuming Melbourne take Jackson at 3).

Had the trade not happened?
Green (matching Adelaide's bid of 4)/some extra late pick this year/2020 first/2020 second.

What's better? With GWS probably finishing high again next year and looking for more immediate performance to compliment their existing group while they're in win-now mode. Going with the superiority of top end talent that they'll get with Green and probably Young for mine is strategically the way to go for GWS.

I don’t know, GWS McCartney seems to have a good grasp.....but I can only hope they have become desperate.....Grand final hangover...🙃
If a bid for Tom Green comes at 5, GWS will have to make 1502 points but only have 733 in this draft. BEcuase they traded out their 2020 first they a) can't trade other future picks and b) can't have a deficit deducted from next year's first, as they don't have one. So... what happens?

GWS go into deficit if they can't get the picks to match Green this year. And that's how things look like playing out.

Deficit doesn't come out of first round picks, so GWS will be fine in a deficit scenario.

Ah but what if GWS have to choose between Green and Jackson?

It doesn't sound like Melbourne bid on Green. I could well be wrong, but in that surprising scenario, I suspect GWS choose Jackson, or possibly even Young ahead of Green given what they need more.

KM AFC’s Justin Reid did an interview today and sststed Stephen was, ‘certainly in the mix ‘ of three or fours guys.

Any reason why you’re hedging on McCasey over Stephens at pick six?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I see both key defence and outside midfield as Adelaide's two greatest needs. With Talia nearing 30 and Hartigan the same age and an only average key defender, I see Adelaide prioritising that next key pillar and focusing on that long term building approach, particularly after the clubs offseason moves to move on from a lot of established and older players.

I wouldn't be shocked if Stephens ended up being the pick though. Adelaide need outside run also, and would love picks 6+7 to get both McAsey and Stephens I imagine if they could.
 
Hi KM, Thanks for answering my last question on Connolly.
Do you think Tye Hourigan is a chance as a rookie or really late pick. Pretty handy from what I’ve seen at Gippy Power
 
Hi KM, Thanks for answering my last question on Connolly.
Do you think Tye Hourigan is a chance as a rookie or really late pick. Pretty handy from what I’ve seen at Gippy Power

Haven't heard any interest in Hourigan. He wasn't invited to the state or national combine so it's hard to see him getting picked.
 
If Kemp didn’t do his ACL and continued with his form, where do you think he would have gone in the draft? Would he be pushing top 2-3?

Not top 2, but I think from 3 onwards Kemp would be firmly in the mix. 3-8 would have been entirely possible. He kept getting better and better during the U18 Champs and going big in big moments. So signs were looking really good.
 
Probably not.

I think Jackson/Green/Young/Ash are the players Melbourne like in some order. Melbourne would favour the run of Ash, with their outside stocks and drive from defence weaknesses.

I think if Young/Jackson/Ash all gone by their second choice they'd more likely go a forward after missing out on Jamie Elliott.
Serong/Henry ? Who would you rather in the melbourne team
 
The problem with any deal with this us is that we don’t make full use of the picks because of Henry bids.

14 and 17 is actually 17 and 22 since 14 goes to a Henry where it would have been 22 (and the junk picks we have behind it that we won’t be using if we do the trade).

14 and 17 is overs for 10 but 17 and 22 is probably unders. Assuming you can get them to budge, your picks will be worth more to Melbourne and Carlton.

I do think you’ll have to give up 14 and 17 to move up though. There is now 3 clubs with multiple top 20 picks actively trying to get into the top 10, it’s a sellers market
SOS would jump at that deal but would cats do it for pick #10
 
Serong/Henry ? Who would you rather in the melbourne team

As per my power rankings I have a slight preference towards Serong. I can't say I'd be picking either.

In terms of what Melbourne do. If they decide to go small forward, and they may not, I'm not yet sure whether it's Serong/Henry/Weightman they like. I keep hearing Jackson at 3 with the hope that one of Young/Ash make it through to 8. And that's seen as the best-available route, and probably the more sensible option with all the forwards they can choose from late/rookie anyway given the depth of them in this draft.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top