Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Saint]

Far from tanking..it’s not the Hawthorn way. That’s disrespectful toward Sam Mitchell. He’s been completely transparent on his vision since becoming the senior coach and it’s far from “tanking”.

Last season we won a few games no one expected us to win- Geelong and Brisbane. Port Adelaide away by 10 goals and pushed the demons. If Mitchell wanted to “tank”, we would have won 3 games last season.

Whilst we will most probably regress this season, especially in the win-loss column due to the departure of quality senior players in Mitchell, O’Meara, Gunston and McEvoy, the youngsters playing together will benefit the club in the future.

My yearly prediction if this rebuild works is as follows:

2023- 6-8 wins
2024- 8-10 wins
2025- 12+ and finals
2026- top 4 and challenge for a flag

Our supporters that think we will be playing finals in 2024 are dreaming. We simply don’t have enough experienced top end talent and the majority of our under 22s are still unproven. You need a good mix to compete with the best teams each year and that will take us a minimum of 2 full seasons.

Hopefully once our youngsters play 50+ games together, show their potential & we start playing finals consistently again, we can start to attract quality free agents to help challenge for our next flag.

I think the disconnect in this conversation is that Hawks are very optimistic and detractors very pessimistic. Which is fine, because you don't come to a forum like this to sit on the fence.

I think that timeline is the most optimistic timeline you could expect.

At the same time, judging on other club rebuilds, the odds of this happening (making top 4 within 4 years from now) seem relatively slim at this stage. The lack of top-end talent seems to be the biggest problem, and it's always the hardest one to fill. Apart from Lewis who could be a gun KPF this year, as Hawks fans have rightly pointed out, they've got the worst midfield in the league. It's a long way back from there without lots of top 5-10 draft picks.

While this timeline is optimistic and they should aim for that. The odds of it happening are 10-1 for me. It's an 18-team competition and while you might look at the current top 4 teams and make cases for each of them dropping away by 2026, there are 10 teams below that who are also on-the-up who the Hawks have to get past as well.

 

[Blackhawk42]

The lack of top-end talent seems to be the biggest problem, and it's always the hardest one to fill. Apart from Lewis who could be a gun KPF this year, as Hawks fans have rightly pointed out, they've got the worst midfield in the league. It's a long way back from there without lots of top 5-10 draft picks.

I'll put it on the line here.

Lewis, Sicily, Moore and Newcombe are elite or potentially elite players that will have a massive say in how we perform in 2023.

They are also the 4 I'm most comfortable saying would be best 22 at any club in the competition.

Will Day the speculative next in line. Has every tool possible to join that group this coming season but just needs some continuity.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I think the disconnect in this conversation is that Hawks are very optimistic and detractors very pessimistic. Which is fine, because you don't come to a forum like this to sit on the fence.

I think that timeline is the most optimistic timeline you could expect.

At the same time, judging on other club rebuilds, the odds of this happening (making top 4 within 4 years from now) seem relatively slim at this stage. The lack of top-end talent seems to be the biggest problem, and it's always the hardest one to fill. Apart from Lewis who could be a gun KPF this year, as Hawks fans have rightly pointed out, they've got the worst midfield in the league. It's a long way back from there without lots of top 5-10 draft picks.

While this timeline is optimistic and they should aim for that. The odds of it happening are 10-1 for me. It's an 18-team competition and while you might look at the current top 4 teams and make cases for each of them dropping away by 2026, there are 10 teams below that who are also on-the-up who the Hawks have to get past as well.

The pessimism from a lot of opposition supporters comes from their lack of knowledge of our list, with many of them declaring that Hawthorn have only just begun to rebuild and overlooking the output and development of our current under 24’s.

On top of that, the idea that you simply have to have top 3 picks to unlock top end talent has so many holes in it. Sure you can get topliners there, but you can also get them later in the draft.

Just in recent years, Bailey Smith, Ben King, Aaron Naughton, Zac Bailey, Caleb Serong, Shai Bolton, etc…. None of which I would give up for Rayner, Dow, McGrath, Lukosius or Parish.

 

[Saint]

I'll put it on the line here.

Lewis, Sicily, Moore and Newcombe are elite or potentially elite players that will have a massive say in how we perform in 2023.

They are also the 4 I'm most comfortable saying would be best 22 at any club in the competition.

Will Day the speculative next in line. Has every tool possible to join that group this coming season but just needs some continuity.

I don't know a lot about Will Day, but I know enough that I doubt he'd get a game ahead of players like Parfitt and O'Connor who were emergencies for the Grand Final for Geelong. Cunningham and Gould missed out for the Swans.

I think a lot of Hawthorn people are seeing potential rather than judging output.

I mean the Hawks page thread about Day is hardly glowing, basically saying his 2021 and 2022 were wipeouts, but here we're being told he's speculatively best 22 at any club?

I think it's been so long since Hawthorn had really good young players that they've forgotten what they look like. Guys like Birchall were good players, but to be top 4, you need better than that. Sicily and Lewis, maybe but Newcombe and Moore are better-than-average mid/forward players respectively. Newcombe won't have a lot more improvement neither will Moore and Day might break in half before he gets any consistency going.

None of those three young players is going to be the next Neale, Bont, Petracca, Dangerfield, Oliver. And like it or not, you do need those types in your team. There's a reason the Hawks gambled on O'Meara and it wasn't for the output they got from him.

I agree top picks doesn't guarantee success, but it gives you the best chance of it.

You could be right and those who watch Hawthorn less often are just missing something. Or perhaps you're looking with extremely rose-coloured glasses. As with all things on the polarised internet, the truth is most likely somewhere in between.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

I don't know a lot about Will Day, but I know enough that I doubt he'd get a game ahead of players like Parfitt and O'Connor who were emergencies for the Grand Final for Geelong. Cunningham and Gould missed out for the Swans.

I think a lot of Hawthorn people are seeing potential rather than judging output.

I mean the Hawks page thread about Day is hardly glowing, basically saying his 2021 and 2022 were wipeouts, but here we're being told he's speculatively best 22 at any club?

I think it's been so long since Hawthorn had really good young players that they've forgotten what they look like. Guys like Birchall were good players, but to be top 4, you need better than that. Sicily and Lewis, maybe but Newcombe and Moore are better-than-average mid/forward players respectively. Newcombe won't have a lot more improvement neither will Moore and Day might break in half before he gets any consistency going.

None of those three young players is going to be the next Neale, Bont, Petracca, Dangerfield, Oliver. And like it or not, you do need those types in your team. There's a reason the Hawks gambled on O'Meara and it wasn't for the output they got from him.

I agree top picks doesn't guarantee success, but it gives you the best chance of it.

You could be right and those who watch Hawthorn less often are just missing something. Or perhaps you're looking with extremely rose-coloured glasses. As with all things on the polarised internet, the truth is most likely somewhere in between.

Based on what?, other than just saying it, Newcombe is 21, are all players stagnant @ 21?

Thats just saying something as fact that is opinion to suit an argument

If you have watched any footage of Day, especially when he carved up GWS and Essendon in 2021 (i agree injuries are a concern) , and don't agree that on talent he would be 22 at pretty much every club baring maybe Geelong and he would most likely be anyway, your just being negatively bias

 

[perplexed]

It looks like Hawthorn are trying to bring forward their bottoming out by a couple of years to avoid it occurring when Tassie join the comp. They started a major rebuild a couple of years ago, which would normally see them bottoming out in 2025/26. With the major cuts they should be able to bottom out in 2023/24 which will enable them to get in some earlier picks before the draft gets compromised. It may not help them rise up the ladder any earlier, but when they do, they should go higher. It is a courageous approach for a young coach to take.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Hawks licking their lips at the prospect of the number one pick next year. Are prepared to use 2023 as a development season before exploding up the ladder.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don't know a lot about Will Day

Probably should have stopped there then if you have no idea why people see such upside.

In Sept of 2021 Matthew Lloyd told AFL.com that Day will be a “superstar of the competition, potentially from next year that will take the competition by storm”, “left foot, right foot, reads the play in the air like few players can” and that he had the capability of having a Sam Walsh like trajectory.

Day had an ankle issue last summer which kept him out of most preseason training, so 2022 was solid if not completely unspectacular, but it’s not just Hawks fans who think he’s a supreme talent.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It looks like Hawthorn are trying to bring forward their bottoming out by a couple of years to avoid it occurring when Tassie join the comp.

I don’t think bottoming out is even a consideration tbh.

 

[perplexed]

I don’t think bottoming out is even a consideration tbh.

I'm sure you guys would be considering the consequences of Tassie coming in and trying to load up as much as possible before they do. I suspect that is why you cut so deep now. It seems like a reasonably strategy.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I don't know a lot about Will Day, but I know enough that I doubt he'd get a game ahead of players like Parfitt and O'Connor who were emergencies for the Grand Final for Geelong. Cunningham and Gould missed out for the Swans.

I think a lot of Hawthorn people are seeing potential rather than judging output.

I mean the Hawks page thread about Day is hardly glowing, basically saying his 2021 and 2022 were wipeouts, but here we're being told he's speculatively best 22 at any club?

I think it's been so long since Hawthorn had really good young players that they've forgotten what they look like. Guys like Birchall were good players, but to be top 4, you need better than that. Sicily and Lewis, maybe but Newcombe and Moore are better-than-average mid/forward players respectively. Newcombe won't have a lot more improvement neither will Moore and Day might break in half before he gets any consistency going.

None of those three young players is going to be the next Neale, Bont, Petracca, Dangerfield, Oliver. And like it or not, you do need those types in your team. There's a reason the Hawks gambled on O'Meara and it wasn't for the output they got from him.

I agree top picks doesn't guarantee success, but it gives you the best chance of it.

You could be right and those who watch Hawthorn less often are just missing something. Or perhaps you're looking with extremely rose-coloured glasses. As with all things on the polarised internet, the truth is most likely somewhere in between.

I did say Will Day was speculative in regards to joining that list of 4. He needs to stay on the park and gain some week to week consistency. He has the tools. It's up to him and some luck to use them correctly.

You've missed the mark on Newcombe and Moore though.

Dylan Moore and Marcus Bontempelli were the only two players in the AFL to average 20 touches and a goal a game. He's a genuine A grader.

Newcombe has only completed 1 pre-season in an elite program which was his lead in to 2022, where he won the coaches association young player of the year award, became the number 1 midfielder in his side and polled 11 Brownlow votes (same as Daicos).
Considering his unique pathway and stunning improvement since being involved in an elite training program, suggesting he can't improve is an absurd statement.
Nathan Buckley also went on record of saying he appears to be a 'low anxiety' footballer, which gives him every chance of becoming a great player.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I'm sure you guys would be considering the consequences of Tassie coming in and trying to load up as much as possible before they do. I suspect that is why you cut so deep now. It seems like a reasonably strategy.

No, our strategy has been about hitting 3 consecutive drafts for as many top 30 picks as possible to add to our under 24 brigade, two periods of which we’ve already had, with the inclusion of Ward, Butler, MacDonald, MacKenzie and Weddle.
Newcombe, Ramsden and Blanck on top of that are bonuses and then Meek and Stephens also coming in via trade is 10 additions in under 18 months(without mentioning the others drafted outside of 30).

The list wasn’t cut to bottom out, it was cut to let the new blood come in and develop alongside a bunch of 50 gamers who have shown the ability to play the style of football that the coach wants to play.

 

[perplexed]

No, our strategy has been about hitting 3 consecutive drafts for as many top 30 picks as possible to add to our under 24 brigade, two periods of which we’ve already had, with the inclusion of Ward, Butler, MacDonald, MacKenzie and Weddle.
Newcombe, Ramsden and Blanck on top of that are bonuses and then Meek and Stephens also coming in via trade is 10 additions in under 18 months(without mentioning the others drafted outside of 30).

The list wasn’t cut to bottom out, it was cut to let the new blood come in and develop alongside a bunch of 50 gamers who have shown the ability to play the style of football that the coach wants to play.

By taking so many young blokes over a short period you will inevitably bottom out over the next few years. Those players won't be able to take you up the ladder until enough of them are at least in their early twenties by which stage the first taken will be around 24/25 - they are 21/22 at the moment. It isn't worth discussing the merits of individual players yet, it doesn't really matter unless you've lucked yourself a couple of Bontempellis. About half will make it, half won't.
I think your approach is fine, all list managers are looking for ways to dodge the effects of or take advantage of the introduction of a new team. You guys have taken the most extreme approach, it could be a winner.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

By taking so many young blokes over a short period you will inevitably bottom out over the next few years. Those players won't be able to take you up the ladder until enough of them are at least in their early twenties by which stage the first taken will be around 24/25 - they are 21/22 at the moment. It isn't worth discussing the merits of individual players yet, it doesn't really matter unless you've lucked yourself a couple of Bontempellis. About half will make it, half won't.
I think your approach is fine, all list managers are looking for ways to dodge the effects of or take advantage of the introduction of a new team. You guys have taken the most extreme approach, it could be a winner.

No, we won’t “inevitably” bottom out, that’s just your prediction based on what looks to be a poor understanding of our list, and the reason I say that is because the rest of your bold statement about how young the 22 is. With injuries we may bottom out, but as it stands we've got a good cross-section of players between 23-27 on the list so we're not relying on these youngsters we've drafted in at all.

I've bolded those over 23 already.

FB: Hardwick Blanck DGB
HB: Jiath Sicily Scrimshaw
C: Day Nash Amon
HF: Breust Lewis Moore
FF: Wingard Koschitske Meek

FOLL: Reeves, Newcombe, Ward

Inter from: Maginness, Worpel, Stephens, MacDonald
Sub: Impey

Emerg from: Frost, Greene, Morrison, Lynch, Bramble, Butler, MacKenzie, Weddle

 

[blaisee]

Look I picked this 5 years ago, and was abused on this site

Hawthorn are in a world of pain, and rock bottom hasn’t even set in yet

Funny thing is , Mitchell is just the fall guy, and he doesn’t even realize it yet, no chance he lasts the next 3 years, his record is going to be deplorable , and we know how the family club look after own lol

 

[blaisee]

No, we won’t “inevitably” bottom out, that’s just your prediction based on what looks to be a poor understanding of our list, and the reason I say that is because the rest of your bold statement about how young the 22 is. With injuries we may bottom out, but as it stands we've got a good cross-section of players between 23-27 on the list so we're not relying on these youngsters we've drafted in at all.

I've bolded those over 23 already.

FB: Hardwick Blanck DGB
HB: Jiath Sicily Scrimshaw
C: Day Nash Amon
HF: Breust Lewis Moore
FF: Wingard Koschitske Meek

FOLL: Reeves, Newcombe, Ward

Inter from: Maginness, Worpel, Stephens, MacDonald
Sub: Impey

Emerg from: Frost, Greene, Morrison, Lynch, Bramble, Butler, MacKenzie, Weddle

Oh dear

Half those blokes will be finished by the time the half you reckon will make it will be delisted

Keep buying memberships the club needs you

 

[perplexed]

No, we won’t “inevitably” bottom out, that’s just your prediction based on what looks to be a poor understanding of our list, and the reason I say that is because the rest of your bold statement about how young the 22 is. With injuries we may bottom out, but as it stands we've got a good cross-section of players between 23-27 on the list so we're not relying on these youngsters we've drafted in at all.

I've bolded those over 23 already.

FB: Hardwick Blanck DGB
HB: Jiath Sicily Scrimshaw
C: Day Nash Amon
HF: Breust Lewis Moore
FF: Wingard Koschitske Meek

FOLL: Reeves, Newcombe, Ward

Inter from: Maginness, Worpel, Stephens, MacDonald
Sub: Impey

Emerg from: Frost, Greene, Morrison, Lynch, Bramble, Butler, MacKenzie, Weddle

Obviously the team you've posted isn't capable of being competitive. To suggest otherwise is just fanboy nonsense. Of the players you've highlighted. about eight are quality, few teams are as shallow as this. The rest are list clogging until the younger guys come through.

Not sure why you are so defensive about this. I'm suggesting you've taken a clever approach to your list with the Tassie team on the way. You could have kept Tom Mitchell, etc. and been mid to low on the ladder when Tassie come in and trying to rebuild without access to the players to do it. I don't think you guys will tank. Sam Mitchell will try to win every game, but you are going to be down for a few years until the young guys aren't so young.

 

[The hands of stone]

Glad I got this heads up , see you all in 2026

 

[hawkman]

Obviously the team you've posted isn't capable of being competitive. To suggest otherwise is just fanboy nonsense. Of the players you've highlighted. about eight are quality, few teams are as shallow as this. The rest are list clogging until the younger guys come through.

Not sure why you are so defensive about this. I'm suggesting you've taken a clever approach to your list with the Tassie team on the way. You could have kept Tom Mitchell, etc. and been mid to low on the ladder when Tassie come in and trying to rebuild without access to the players to do it. I don't think you guys will tank. Sam Mitchell will try to win every game, but you are going to be down for a few years until the young guys aren't so young.

From the team above compared to the team that beat Geelong this year

In: Amon, Wingard, Meek, Day, Maginness, Blanck, Stephens
Out: Mitchell, O'Meara, Gunston, Phillips, Shiels, Frost, Morrison


You could wipe off the last 2 as they still may be best 23
Of the others some would improve the team and others would weaken it. I would have 2 better(Day and Maginness over Shiels and Phillips), Amon or Wingard level with O'Meara and 2 worse (Gunston and Mitchell over Wingard and Meek)

 

[Blackhawk42]

Obviously the team you've posted isn't capable of being competitive.

A little stunned by the use of the word 'obviously' here.

Even if it's simply an opinion you hold, there is zero way of predicting at this point in time the fortunes of teams in 2023.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

A little stunned by the use of the word 'obviously' here.

Even if it's simply an opinion you hold, there is zero way of predicting at this point in time the fortunes of teams in 2023.

He wants it bad.

 

[Khmerhawk]

Oh dear

Half those blokes will be finished by the time the half you reckon will make it will be delisted

Keep buying memberships the club needs you

I was about to rebut your silly statements but then thought "dont feed the troll"

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Look I picked this 5 years ago, and was abused on this site

Hawthorn are in a world of pain, and rock bottom hasn’t even set in yet

Funny thing is , Mitchell is just the fall guy, and he doesn’t even realize it yet, no chance he lasts the next 3 years, his record is going to be deplorable , and we know how the family club look after own lol

If you want to troll, fine

But show a modicum of intelligence

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Obviously the team you've posted isn't capable of being competitive. To suggest otherwise is just fanboy nonsense.

It’s fanboy nonsense to suggest that we will be competitive?!

You are starting to sound like a genuine nuffy.

 

[blaisee]

If you want to troll, fine

But show a modicum of intelligence

I was right then, and I am right now