Game Day Changes & Pre-match Discussion - RD 6 vs. Brisbane. Thur 17/04 @ 7:30pm (Gabba)

[September Action]

You must have been watching a different team.

We’ve been dismembering, dismantling and strangling the life out of the opposition (if it’s possible to do all three at once).

But Brisbane will be a massive test. Their coming off a shorter break will help. As will our recent history against them.

Maybe I’m just too paranoid. I hope so. I remember in 2010, I never really trusted our form until we smashed Geelong (in the prelim I think).

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

Looking forward to this match insofar as I still can’t get a read on where we’re at.
GWS - humbled us
Port - is Port
Dogs - could’ve, should’ve beaten us
Carlton - are rubbish and we didn’t put them away
Sydney - strange one: I can’t tell if we played really well or if they didn’t show up

So…I’m still conservative on us. Banking wins so far though, which is the main thing.

I feel like we are going pretty well and playing footy that will stand up in finals.
GWS- humbled ourselves really. Could have been up by 2 goals at 3/4 time after 22 inside 50’s for the quarter for a meagre 5 points return. Pendles felt we were a bit too keen and went away from our system a bit. 6-16
Dogs- gave everything in their anniversary game. Reef injured early. 10-16
Carlton- we controlled most of the game. Atrocious conditions. 8-15
Swans - we never let them get a real run on and got out to 30 point leads twice. Kicked straight.
Think the Brisbane game will be a cracker but we have got what it takes.
We are going ok I reckon. Hopefully bringing JDG back also.

 

[tmpies01]

Going off this, Thursday night will be interesting lol.

 

[magpiewarrior]

We aren’t playing our best yet but the way we are going about it, and building, it’s starting to feel a bit like 2023. The difference being ( IMHO) we have a better list. We just have to get there.

 

[domus]

In DeGoey
Out Allan

sub Sullivan.

No need for cox to come in unless mcStay needs a break. MMM is working, why play with the formula against the reigning premiers?

Wouldn’t mind Howe getting a rest though although not sure who for.

Edit…….

If perryman is out then give a reprieve for Allan. WHE to play back.

I'll be stunned if Degoey plays in the ANZAC clash let alone this Thursday.

 

[domus]

I guess so. But yes, poor kicking (and some umpire assistance).

We should have beaten Carlton by at least 7 goals and the Dogs 4 or 5 goals based on the amount of control and relatively easy shots on goal we missed. The umps cost us 2 certain goals with poor decisions too. The head high on Elliott 15 m out which everyone but the ump saw and the 50m not awarded to Cox after he was bashed.

 

[3rdMan]

Talk of resting is odd. We've only played 2 games since the bye. We're playing Brisbane. Time to make a statement not flirt with form.

 

[Kes1984]

Whisper he might of Injured his Ankle in 4th Qtr

careful saying Whisper and injuries in the same sentence - you may scare people that Nick is injured!!

 

[Harry O]

We have also had a bye. Some weird takes here lately.

Howey is 35. Looked sore - could not bend over or run freely.
Sure run him into the ground if you don’t want him playing in September
Hopefully he can be 100% but he struggled to move the other night

 

[76woodenspooners]

Going off this, Thursday night will be interesting lol.

On what planet is Carlton above Adelaide?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Going off this, Thursday night will be interesting lol.

Given Brisbane is undefeated and our one loss was a pumping, I'm surprised to see that 1 2 combo

I figured we'd probably be Top 4, but didn't expect top

Also surprised to see Hawthorn 6th

 

[Kes1984]

Given Brisbane is undefeated and our one loss was a pumping, I'm surprised to see that 1 2 combo

I figured we'd probably be Top 4, but didn't expect top

Also surprised to see Hawthorn 6th

Bad goal kicking aside - I would argue our wins have looked more convincing than Brisbane.

 

[gouki88]

If De Goey is up, he comes in for Allan and WHE becomes the sub.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Bad goal kicking aside - I would argue our wins have looked more convincing than Brisbane.

I guess

We definitely should have beat both Carlton and Sydney by around 12 goals each and probably should have beat the Bulldogs by 5 or 6

Our percentage should be way higher than it currently is

 

[gouki88]

I guess

We definitely should have beat both Carlton and Sydney by around 12 goals each and probably should have beat the Bulldogs by 5 or 6

Our percentage should be way higher than it currently is

I know it's a meme stat these days, but we are the second worst team in the competition in actual score vs expected score (predictably, Melbourne is the worst). I think our lack of conversion is not due to anything systematic, but more just unfortunate skill errors.

If we can tidy that up, we'll start pumping teams

 

[Scodog10]

I know it's a meme stat these days, but we are the second worst team in the competition in actual score vs expected score (predictably, Melbourne is the worst). I think our lack of conversion is not due to anything systematic, but more just unfortunate skill errors.

If we can tidy that up, we'll start pumping teams

Says more for the people using it as a meme than the actual stat! There’s a reason coaches reference it and I suspect it’s because it can tell you a lot about how your game is stacking up (up to a point obviously).

 

[VinnieB]

Lion’s midfield won’t know what hit them when the Long Train passes through

 

[sr36]

I know it's a meme stat these days, but we are the second worst team in the competition in actual score vs expected score (predictably, Melbourne is the worst). I think our lack of conversion is not due to anything systematic, but more just unfortunate skill errors.

If we can tidy that up, we'll start pumping teams

I think it's system, but not a bad thing. We are intent on keeping the opposition in contest and thus don't lengthen the ground as much as most teams do. Results in less easy shots. I know that's meant to be factored into expected score, but im not convinced it's nuanced enough to differentiate between a snap under one on one pressure versus a snap from the pressure of being in the middle of congestion

 

[gouki88]

Says more for the people using it as a meme than the actual stat! There’s a reason coaches reference it and I suspect it’s because it can tell you a lot about how your game is stacking up (up to a point obviously).

I more meant meme in reference to the Dees and all their expected score wins

 

[Vankri]

Says more for the people using it as a meme than the actual stat! There’s a reason coaches reference it and I suspect it’s because it can tell you a lot about how your game is stacking up (up to a point obviously).

I agree with the sentiment but there is a strong nuance to consider there which is that Melbourne’s continual failure in translating expected to actual score is not just ‘bad luck’ and ‘bad kicking’, it’s a product of the way they play. It’s also important to remember the expected score are based on a comp wide average. If you’ve got crappy goal kickers / set shot inaccurate players in your team you can’t just rely on the discrepancy and think things will average out in your favour over time.

 

[nahnah]

no Daniher and the umps calling play on for short chips that the lions love makes this a lot less intimidating imo (if the umps are consistent with the play on calls)

 

[Kes1984]

Lion’s midfield won’t know what hit them when the Long Train passes through

 

[Kes1984]

I know it's a meme stat these days, but we are the second worst team in the competition in actual score vs expected score (predictably, Melbourne is the worst). I think our lack of conversion is not due to anything systematic, but more just unfortunate skill errors.

If we can tidy that up, we'll start pumping teams

Our choice to use the boundary is making for more shots at goal from obscure angles so that wouldn't help matters there.

 

[sr36]

Our choice to use the boundary is making for more shots at goal from obscure angles so that wouldn't help matters there.

Angle of shot is meant to be factored into expected score.

 

[Scodog10]

I more meant meme in reference to the Dees and all their expected score wins

Gotcha. I thought it was more along the Cornes line of thinking.

I agree with the sentiment but there is a strong nuance to consider there which is that Melbourne’s continual failure in translating expected to actual score is not just ‘bad luck’ and ‘bad kicking’, it’s a product of the way they play. It’s also important to remember the expected score are based on a comp wide average. If you’ve got crappy goal kickers / set shot inaccurate players in your team you can’t just rely on the discrepancy and think things will average out in your favour over time.

Melbourne sitting so lowly is hard to fathom because their game is just putrid overall so you assume they’re getting putrid looks at goal, but being bad isn’t the worst outcome for them. You know what would be even more scary is if they were sitting at the top of the expected score ladder! Imagine not being able to kick goals and you’re making the most of your chances.

Ultimately it loses its effect the deeper you get into the season (by finals time it means nothing because you’re either scoring or you aren’t) and it really should be just a differential stat not result based, but for us it’s a big one because it reinforces that our games in good order and finishing off our work is the key.