Unofficial Preview Changes & Pre-match Discussion - RD 4 vs. Carlton. Thur 03/04 @ 7:30pm (MCG)

[jmac70]

I just don’t have confidence in this bloke at AFL level.

Even after good performances at AFL level?

 

[Kes1984]

Even after good performances at AFL level?

Did I miss him play something more than the most forgettable quarter of footy I’ve ever witnessed?

 

[Kes1984]

Did I miss him play something more than the most forgettable unfortunately unforgettable quarter of footy I’ve ever witnessed?

Editing my own post for accuracy.

 

[jmac70]

Did I miss him play something more than the most forgettable quarter of footy I’ve ever witnessed?

Ok, I see that’s not a lot to go by.

 

[No SPIN]

I just don’t have confidence in this bloke at AFL level.

That’s what people said about Murphy, Markov, Noble, Richards do I need to go on?

 

[Kes1984]

That’s what people said about Murphy, Markov, Noble, Richards do I need to go on?

And about several others that didn’t make it too, I’m sure.

Anyway if he’s improved and he’s ready great. But yeah, after the very small sample size we had from him, I’m personally not in any hurry to see him back again. We’d have to be deep into our depth first.

 

[sr36]

I like Tim’s style. Easier to read than some.

I think your students are going to be in trouble on Naplan.

 

[sr36]

I just don’t have confidence in this bloke at AFL level.

Doesn't look exciting, but looks ok to me. I don't get the angst about him.

 

[Jen2310]

Doesn't look exciting, but looks ok to me. I don't get the angst about him.

A solid defender like most are. You don’t have to be a star to play a role.

 

[Scodog10]

Doesn't look exciting, but looks ok to me. I don't get the angst about him.

There’s a myth that persists back to his draft year that he takes safe options by foot. Personally I think he could add a bit on both sides of the ball in time with his work rate. To borrow one of Fly’s favourite lines I thought he played AFL footy v the Swans.

On a separate note it was intriguing listening to Hoyney tonight on SEN talking about ball movement both in offence and defence. Five of the past six premiers were top 2 for ball movement (the exception was us I assume because our profile slipped late in 2023) and Adam Simpson then text in on surge v shape. It was the best 15 minutes of radio I’ve heard in a while. Essentially all scoring comes down to ball movement except forward half stoppages which are pot luck because of the numbers and centre square. Watching the first month it seems pretty clear to me that we’re shaping as one of the better ball movement teams this year and I think the only thing holding us back from a 2023 like rebound will be the connection piece. For context the two worst this year are Carlton and Melbourne…

 

[JuniorB]

Suggest you go and rewatch games and see how hard McCreery works. His discipline in positioning within our structures sees him rarely beaten, a great pressure player. Seriously, one of our most accountable players. As a result, I reckon he's one of the first selected each week. The coaches clearly don't overlook it.

I agree with you.
His pressure and tackling are top shelf.
My post was more about what he would need to work on to become a regular CBA mid.

 

[JuniorB]

That’s what people said about Murphy, Markov, Noble, Richards do I need to go on?

As I've said a number of times, he's still a kid.
He won't turn 21 until September.

 

[Bianconeri]

Doesn't look exciting, but looks ok to me. I don't get the angst about him.

I think to be a Collingwood half back atm you have to be exciting.

If he can play a role as a third tall and intercept well he’ll make up for his lack of offensive game like Murphy did in 2022 so not against him getting the chance.

 

[Bianconeri]

There’s a myth that persists back to his draft year that he takes safe options by foot.

I didn’t watch the game against Sydney so maybe this aspect has improved but it looked that way at VFL game I watched previously.

 

[Exambolor]

I think to be a Collingwood half back atm you have to be exciting.

If he can play a role as a third tall and intercept well he’ll make up for his lack of offensive game like Murphy did in 2022 so not against him getting the chance.

Plus the only game Ryan has had is a barely a quarter before he got concussed

 

[sr36]

I think to be a Collingwood half back atm you have to be exciting.

If he can play a role as a third tall and intercept well he’ll make up for his lack of offensive game like Murphy did in 2022 so not against him getting the chance.

Perryman did very well against Dogs without excitement.

 

[JoinDate]

MMM please. TDK is immense, but so is Cameron.

 

[Sweeetleftfoot]

MMM please. TDK is immense, but so is Cameron.

We would get hammered when mcstay is in the ruck, Carlton’s clearance game and scores from clearance is pretty good. I think we need cox just to
Impact the contest a bit.

 

[Bianconeri]

Perryman did very well against Dogs without excitement.

Happy for less exciting options to be the plan b.

 

[sr36]

Happy for less exciting options to be the plan b.

I won't be surprised if Perryman in defence does become plan A. To me Bruzzy in Reefs spot and Perryman in Bruzzy's role is an upgrade on what we began the year with.

Rather than Frampton, I'm hoping we bring in a kid. Ryan, TJ or Parker if Perryman plays mid. Or Allan if Perryman plays defence.

 

[Kirby]

There’s a myth that persists back to his draft year that he takes safe options by foot. Personally I think he could add a bit on both sides of the ball in time with his work rate. To borrow one of Fly’s favourite lines I thought he played AFL footy v the Swans.

On a separate note it was intriguing listening to Hoyney tonight on SEN talking about ball movement both in offence and defence. Five of the past six premiers were top 2 for ball movement (the exception was us I assume because our profile slipped late in 2023) and Adam Simpson then text in on surge v shape. It was the best 15 minutes of radio I’ve heard in a while. Essentially all scoring comes down to ball movement except forward half stoppages which are pot luck because of the numbers and centre square. Watching the first month it seems pretty clear to me that we’re shaping as one of the better ball movement teams this year and I think the only thing holding us back from a 2023 like rebound will be the connection piece. For context the two worst this year are Carlton and Melbourne…

Did Hoyne explain how they measure ball movement in a statistical sense?

Is it unbroken chains of possession that lead to a score? Speed of movement?

I'm somewhat intrigued by how they measure it.

 

[sr36]

There’s a myth that persists back to his draft year that he takes safe options by foot. Personally I think he could add a bit on both sides of the ball in time with his work rate. To borrow one of Fly’s favourite lines I thought he played AFL footy v the Swans.

On a separate note it was intriguing listening to Hoyney tonight on SEN talking about ball movement both in offence and defence. Five of the past six premiers were top 2 for ball movement (the exception was us I assume because our profile slipped late in 2023) and Adam Simpson then text in on surge v shape. It was the best 15 minutes of radio I’ve heard in a while. Essentially all scoring comes down to ball movement except forward half stoppages which are pot luck because of the numbers and centre square. Watching the first month it seems pretty clear to me that we’re shaping as one of the better ball movement teams this year and I think the only thing holding us back from a 2023 like rebound will be the connection piece. For context the two worst this year are Carlton and Melbourne…

What did Simpson say about surge vs shape?

I don't think it's a "versus" thing. I think you need a shape to get the surge consistently.

Dees and Blues are stuffed - despite the elite players they have, they just don't have the kickers and runners. They can control territory with awesome clearance players and KPD, but they don't have the players to score.

 

[JuniorB]

What did Simpson say about surge vs shape?

I don't think it's a "versus" thing. I think you need a shape to get the surge consistently.

Dees and Blues are stuffed - despite the elite players they have, they just don't have the kickers and runners. They can control territory with awesome clearance players and KPD, but they don't have the players to score.

The irony is that Houston was exactly the player the scum needed.

 

[Scodog10]

What did Simpson say about surge vs shape?

I don't think it's a "versus" thing. I think you need a shape to get the surge consistently.

Dees and Blues are stuffed - despite the elite players they have, they just don't have the kickers and runners. They can control territory with awesome clearance players and KPD, but they don't have the players to score.

You’re testing me now because he managed to summarise it in a text (it was Edmund, Healy and Hoyne actually discussing it), but this is my interpretation of how Healy broke down the text.

Surge teams play with a +1 at stoppage and they then set the ground up to move the ball through overlap. Whereas the shape teams hold their numbers behind the ball and feed it backwards to create overlap. He then went deeper and mentioned a term they use called “**** surge” which they use at particular times.

The way it was explained was definitely a Vs scenario where some teams play one way and others play another as their go to setup. It was really easy to identify that we’re a surge team based on our stoppage setup even without looking at footage because we rarely look for a +1 to exit the rear of stoppages.

You’re spot on with why those two in particular are in trouble. They spoke about how much the game has gone from contest to movement (in the 10 years prior to 2025 the lowest scoring % from contest in a season was 62% and this year it’s 53%) and went deeper on how big a loss Windsor is to the Dees and why even if Carlton’s contest game improves they’ll still struggle until guys like Boyd and Newman can return. It’s not for everyone, but I love that level of insight.

 

[JuniorB]

You’re testing me now because he managed to summarise it in a text (it was Edmund, Healy and Hoyne actually discussing it), but this is my interpretation of how Healy broke down the text.

Surge teams play with a +1 at stoppage and they then set the ground up to move the ball through overlap. Whereas the shape teams hold their numbers behind the ball and feed it backwards to create overlap. He then went deeper and mentioned a term they use called “**** surge” which they use at particular times.

The way it was explained was definitely a Vs scenario where some teams play one way and others play another as their go to setup. It was really easy to identify that we’re a surge team based on our stoppage setup even without looking at footage because we rarely look for a +1 to exit the rear of stoppages.

You’re spot on with why those two in particular are in trouble. They spoke about how much the game has gone from contest to movement (in the 10 years prior to 2025 the lowest scoring % from contest in a season was 62% and this year it’s 53%) and went deeper on how big a loss Windsor is to the Dees and why even if Carlton’s contest game improves they’ll still struggle until guys like Boyd and Newman can return. It’s not for everyone, but I love that level of insight.

That also explains why we can get opened up on turnover, because our +1 is ahead of the ball.