Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Mr Meow]

Then of course there is the not insignificant matter of:

Dusty having by miles the highest offensive 1 v 1 contest winning percentage in the history of the stat being recorded, of 48.5%. The next highest are in the very low 40%'s. His defensive 1 v 1 loss % was 20%.

Ablett was 38% for offensive 1 v 1 wins with a 40% defensive contest loss %.

Franklin was 37% for offensive 1 v 1 wins and his defensive 1 v 1 loss % was 17%.

Ablett's offensive 1v1 win rate was 47.3% from 2012-2018. You can't really use the drop off from 2019-2020 against him because these are equivalent years where Martin isn't even playing.

And of course Ablett's peak Geelong years aren't included in this analysis. Nor Franklin's best Hawthorn ones.

 

[Mr Meow]

Dude Dusty was named in Richmond's best in both the 2014 and 2015 finals, did you even watch them? Doubt it

1 combined goal/assist in those finals for a 23-24 year old (prime years) player instructed to do maximum damage forward of centre. 0.5 per game.

Ablett's 2004 SF, 2005 EF and 2020 PF he combined for 9 goals/assists: 3 per game (6x better). As a rookie/old man.

Dude.

 

[Captain_Bender]

1 combined goal/assist in those finals for a 23-24 year old (prime years) player instructed to do maximum damage forward of centre. 0.5 per game.

Ablett's 2004 SF, 2005 EF and 2020 PF he combined for 9 goals/assists: 3 per game (6x better). As a rookie/old man.

Dude you don't understand the sport don't you

 

[Mr Meow]

Dude you don't understand the sport don't you

Dispute what I just presented to you.

Dude.

Martin had a singular 4 year period of great finals. No good ones outside of his 26-29 year old absolute peak.

Those are basic facts.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Dispute what I just presented to you.

Dude.

Martin had a singular 4 year period of great finals. No good ones outside of his 26-29 year old absolute peak.

Those are basic facts.

Do I need to bring up Gary Rohan again

 

[Mr Meow]

Do I need to bring up Gary Rohan again

That would be a major deflection from the 0.5 goals/assists per game finals you just highlighted as strong for Martin 2014-2015. So I welcome it as it would be a concession on the original argument.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Dispute what I just presented to you.

Dude.

Martin had a singular 4 year period of great finals. No good ones outside of his 26-29 year old absolute peak.

Those are basic facts.

Show me one match report of the 2014 and 2015 finals where Dusty wasn't named in Richmond's best, both games better than any of Ablett's finals before 2007

 

[RUNVS]

Both of those things are demonstrably wrong. Martin consistently performed at elite level in weaker performing teams, 2011(his 2nd season) 2016, 2023 are just 3 examples.

And in Martin's closest final - the 2020 PF v Port Adelaide, he was BOG by miles(max 10 coaches votes, BOG player rating an incredible 50% higher than 2nd highest rated player.)

Not that it would matter, because it was not like Dusty relied solely on his teams dominance to win the ball or impact the scoreboard in finals, almost all his scores were heavily contested.

Then of course there is the not insignificant matter of:

Dusty having by miles the highest offensive 1 v 1 contest winning percentage in the history of the stat being recorded, of 48.5%. The next highest are in the very low 40%'s. His defensive 1 v 1 loss % was 20%.

Ablett was 38% for offensive 1 v 1 wins with a 40% defensive contest loss %.

Franklin was 37% for offensive 1 v 1 wins and his defensive 1 v 1 loss % was 17%.

You do know that Buddy was a key forward though don't you and not a midfielder, so the comparison is not relevant.

Also good chance Ablett's stats are more incomplete as he is older than Martin and there are a lot of stats that were not around in 2009 that were available 10 years later.

 

[Mr Meow]

Show me one match report of the 2014 and 2015 finals where Dusty wasn't named in Richmond's best, both games better than any of Ablett's finals before 2007

If that's the fantasy you need to believe (those finals being better than any of Ablett's rookie ones), I encourage it.

The rest of us live in reality.

 

[Captain_Bender]

If that's the fantasy you need to believe (those finals being better than any of Ablett's rookie ones), I encourage it.

The rest of us live in reality.

Show me the match report to justify your insecurities

 

[Mr Meow]

You do know that Buddy was a key forward though don't you and not a midfielder, so the comparison is not relevant.

Also good chance Ablett's stats are more incomplete as he is older than Martin and there are a lot of stats that were not around in 2009 that were available 10 years later.

And that you will have lower averages if your finals are more evenly distributed across a 16+ year career (like Ablett and Franklin) as opposed to playing almost all of them 26-29 years old in a dominant team.

Any seasoned veteran with near 30 finals, including many as a junior or an old man, will have the same thing. Imagine Martin playing 12 finals in the 2013-2015 period where he failed to play any good ones? Or after 2021? Those averages would plummet. Ablett and Franklin at least did have strong finals outside of their absolute prime years.

 

[RUNVS]

And that you will have lower averages if your finals are more evenly distributed across a 16+ year career (like Ablett and Franklin) as opposed to playing almost all of them 26-29 years old in a dominant team.

Any seasoned veteran with near 30 finals, including many as a junior or an old man, will have the same thing. Imagine Martin playing 12 finals in the 2013-2015 period where he failed to play any good ones? Or after 2021? Those averages would plummet. Ablett and Franklin at least did have strong finals outside of their absolute prime years.

Martin was actually quite lucky that his peak matched Richmond's peak. Both were only really up for 4 or 5 years in total.

If his peak happened when Richmond was outside the 8 no one would be talking about him.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Just do it, someone saying Dusty didn't have a good game in 2014 and 2015, please show me

 

[Outtatym]

Dude Dusty was named in Richmond's best in both the 2014 and 2015 finals, did you even watch them? Doubt it

I was there that day. This isn't the flex you think it is. He was average.

 

[Mr Meow]

Martin was actually quite lucky that his peak matched Richmond's peak. Both were only really up for 4 or 5 years in total.

If his peak happened when Richmond was outside the 8 no one would be talking about him.

Yep and there's no doubting his brilliance during that peak. There's just no point pretending it extended to some 15 year period of finals dominance. Or even season dominance. The 4x AAs just about reflects how many outstanding seasons. Potentially 5. Which is still great. Buddy and Ablett were at the top of their game much longer than that, and overall had better rookie/veteran years to round out their portfolios.

Which is why everyone has them as a clear top 2 this century.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ablett's offensive 1v1 win rate was 47.3% from 2012-2018. You can't really use the drop off from 2019-2020 against him because these are equivalent years where Martin isn't even playing.

And of course Ablett's peak Geelong years aren't included in this analysis. Nor Franklin's best Hawthorn ones.

That is factually incorrect your claim Ablett's 1 v 1 win rate was 47.3%from 2012-18.

He won approximately:

10 of 19 contests 2012
15 of 48 contests 2013
8 of 17 contests 2014
2 of 4 contests 2015
1 of 3 contests 2016
3 of 5 contests 2017
5 of 9 contests 2018


10 of 29 contests 2019
2 of 12 contests 2020

So even leaving out his last two years, he won 44 of 105 1 v 1 contests 2012-2018. 42%. This is still well below Martin's career figure 2012-24 of 48.5%, much higher than any other player has recorded in this stat - like 15-20% higher.

 

[RUNVS]

That is factually incorrect Ablett's 1 v 1 win rate was 47.3%from 2012-18.

He won approximately:

10 of 19 contests 2012
15 of 48 contests 2013
8 of 17 contests 2014
2 of 4 contests 2015
1 of 3 contests 2016
3 of 5 contests 2017
5 of 9 contests 2018


10 of 29 contests 2019
2 of 12 contests 2020

So even leaving out his last two years, he won 44 of 105 1 v 1 contests 2012-2018. 42%. This is still well below Martin's career figure 2012-24 of 48.5%.

and what about from 2007 to 2011?

 

[Captain_Bender]

I was there that day. This isn't the flex you think it is. He was average.

Not Dusty's fault he didn't have the team around him at the time

 

[Mr Meow]

I was there that day. This isn't the flex you think it is. He was average.

Then 2014 he stat padded while Port players inflicted huge scoreboard damage. 21 undamaging uncontested possessions.

2022 was worse than those.

No doubting 2017-2020's brilliance. It's just silly when the mayo is applied to the non-dynasty finals he played in, which were all forgettable and ranged from poor-average.

 

[RUNVS]

Not Dusty's fault he didn't have the team around him at the time

and yet you argue it is all Martin when he did have the team around him.

 

[Outtatym]

Not Dusty's fault he didn't have the team around him at the time

Sure, Cotchin going MIA didn't help either.
But let's not embellish it like he played brilliantly because he was named in the bests..

 

[Mr Meow]

That is factually incorrect Ablett's 1 v 1 win rate was 47.3%from 2012-18.

He won approximately:

10 of 19 contests 2012
15 of 48 contests 2013
8 of 17 contests 2014
2 of 4 contests 2015
1 of 3 contests 2016
3 of 5 contests 2017
5 of 9 contests 2018


10 of 29 contests 2019
2 of 12 contests 2020

So even leaving out his last two years, he won 44 of 105 1 v 1 contests 2012-2018. 42%. This is still well below Martin's career figure 2012-24 of 48.5%.

Season averages is what I went from (so 7 data points).

His last two years (equivalent to Dusty playing 2026-2027) of course the win rate went down as he needed smarts rather than brute strength.

 

[Captain_Bender]

and yet you argue it is all Martin when he did have the team around him.

And when he didn't he was still in Richmond's best players

 

[Meteoric Rise]

and what about from 2007 to 2011?

The stat was recorded from 2012 only. 3 of Ablett's very best years were recorded, 2012-13-14. He won 33 of 84 offensive 1 v 1's in those 3 years. 39%.

 

[JackOutback]

It’s Ablett, Buddy, Judd, then daylight to fourth.